Brewers at Reds; Tuesday, June 3 @ 6:10 p.m.: Freddy Peralta (2.77 ERA, 3.99 FIP) vs. Hunter Greene (2.63 ERA, 3.29 FIP)

[treego14]

[Brock Beauchamp]

[Brian]

Brewers Ace vs. Reds Ace: The Cincinnati Reds' ace pitcher is Hunter Greene. He has been the standout pitcher for the Reds in 2025.  Milwaukee Brewers' ace pitcher is likely to be Freddy Peralta with a 2.77 ERA. Should be a good game tonight. 

[treego14]

Ace vs. Ace!

Brewers blow up the Reds!

There won't be a trace!

[sveumrules]

Really fun article at FanGraphs about the Brewers making weird history one year ago today against the White Sox.

[formerlybis]

This is Greene's third start after a 15-day IL stint. He went 4 and 5 innings, respectively in the previous two starts, with 83 and 88 pitches. Obvious game plan is to get his pitch count up. The Cincy pen was pretty good last night, tbh, but I'd take my chances against them instead of Greene.

[Brian]

19 minutes ago, formerlybis said:

This is Greene's third start after a 15-day IL stint. He went 4 and 5 innings, respectively in the previous two starts, with 83 and 88 pitches. Obvious game plan is to get his pitch count up. The Cincy pen was pretty good last night, tbh, but I'd take my chances against them instead of Greene.

Greene's 15 day IL was for a groin strain, seems short for a groin strain unless it was very minor. 

[LouisEly]

The Brewers 8-game win streak has come against the following starting pitchers:

1. Bailey Falter (3.50 ERA going into the game)
2. Garrett Crochet
3. Richard Fitts (3.18 ERA going into the game)
4. Brayan Bello (4.08 ERA going into the game)
5. Taijuan Walker
6. Jesus Luzardo
7. Ranger Suarez
8. Brady Singer (4.60 ERA going into the game)

So, only two of the eight starting pitchers they faced had an ERA over 4.00 going into the game, only one over 4.50, and none over 5.00.  Not exactly doing it against a bunch of AAAA- pitchers.

[Brian]

Just heard on MLB Network Brewers are the #1 baserunning team in baseball now.  It all started when Murphy made it clear sloppy play won't be tolerated as he pulled Sal Frelick and Caleb Durbin after their mistakes on April 26th I believe. 

[sveumrules]

13 minutes ago, Brian said:

Just heard on MLB Network Brewers are the #1 baserunning team in baseball now.  It all started when Murphy made it clear sloppy play won't be tolerated as he pulled Sal Frelick and Caleb Durbin after their mistakes on April 26th I believe. 

It all started last year when they posted +19.8 BsR, most in MLB.

So far this year they have already put up +9.5 BsR in only 61 games.

Over the last two seasons their +29.3 BsR is almost a dozen runs better than ARI in second at +17.6.

[igor67]

I wonder how much they benefit from opportunities since they do have lower power numbers

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, igor67 said:

I wonder how much they benefit from opportunities since they do have lower power numbers

They are 6th in singles and 3rd in walks going back to the start of 2024.

BRef tracks stolen base opportunities under Manager Tendencies, so far this year 570 chances to steal second are 4th most and they have attempted a steal 13.9% of the time, the third highest rate.

Their 385 chances to steal 3rd have only been 8th most this year, but they have attempted a steal 3.9% of the time the second highest rate.

Brewers baserunners have come around to score 33% of the time, tied for 4th highest this year. They take the extra base 48% of the time, also 4th highest in MLB. 

They are also tops in Reach On Error this year with 19, which could also be influenced by the team speed.

Put it altogether and the Brewers are 6th in runs scored over the last two years despite a 100 wRC+ (15th) and a .147 ISO (21st). Pretty insane, really.

To quote Jarrod Dyson, "That's what speed do."

[TURBO]

42 minutes ago, Brian said:

Just heard on MLB Network Brewers are the #1 baserunning team in baseball now.  It all started when Murphy made it clear sloppy play won't be tolerated as he pulled Sal Frelick and Caleb Durbin after their mistakes on April 26th I believe. 

Frelick being pulled had nothing to do with baserunning.

 

[formerlybis]

50 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

They are 6th in singles and 3rd in walks going back to the start of 2024.

BRef tracks stolen base opportunities under Manager Tendencies, so far this year 570 chances to steal second are 4th most and they have attempted a steal 13.9% of the time, the third highest rate.

Their 385 chances to steal 3rd have only been 8th most this year, but they have attempted a steal 3.9% of the time the second highest rate.

Brewers baserunners have come around to score 33% of the time, tied for 4th highest this year. They take the extra base 48% of the time, also 4th highest in MLB. 

They are also tops in Reach On Error this year with 19, which could also be influenced by the team speed.

Put it altogether and the Brewers are 6th in runs scored over the last two years despite a 100 wRC+ (15th) and a .147 ISO (21st). Pretty insane, really.

To quote Jarrod Dyson, "That's what speed do."

All very interesting, thank you.

I think most of this indeed speed, and when it comes to stealing, there's elements of instinct and skill in reading the pitcher.

But when it comes to taking the extra base, the base coaches are an underrated factor. There's a lot of info to process in a split-second when the ball's in play, and they're crucial to the team's success in this area. Tip of the cap to Messrs Borbon and Lane. Are there stats for base coaches?

[tmwiese55]

I guess this explains something that stood out to me a few days ago while clicking around basic team stats.  Brewers were low in OPS like say 23rdish, yet like 8thish in runs scored.   

[sveumrules]

24 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

I guess this explains something that stood out to me a few days ago while clicking around basic team stats.  Brewers were low in OPS like say 23rdish, yet like 8thish in runs scored.   

Yeah, the speed is one aspect of it and they’ve been pretty good again with RISP this year at 624 PAs (5th) of 106 wRC+ (10th) leading to 201 RBI (8th).

Not quite up to last year’s output of 1,726 PAs (2nd) of 122 wRC+ (4th) leading to 565 RBI (3rd) though.

Of course last year with Adames their .190 ISO with RISP ranked 5th versus this year’s .123 ISO with RISP coming in at 24th.

[duewizard]

Turang had a rough patch after being ill but he's been great the past week

[markedman5]

What a beautiful swing by Yeli……

[Gump]

Great start! Let’s go

[edfunderburk]

Good Freddy early … 

[Zad Fnark]

They're really whiffing on Freddy today.

[markedman5]

Wow……very good Freddy indeed 

 

 

[Oxy]

Not bad for a non-ace #2

[yfinn6]

Would rather see Jackson try to hit the ball in the gap somewhere but I get what he's trying to do. 

[kevinisaname]

SALVATORE! ON FIRE!