2025-26 Milwaukee Bucks / NBA Thread

[LouisEly]

52 minutes ago, wallus said:

I will never assume that a warm weather destination team will be very bad, like top 3 pick bad

As has been said, with the new draft lotto system, anything is possible so long as the team either misses the playoffs or is a play-in team.  Much flatter odds for the top 3 picks to be random.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

5 minutes ago, patrickgpe said:

I am just glad that this is over with. If I'm a Pelicans and Blazers fan, I am doing backflips as they get the unprotected 2027 pick and 2028 picks respectively while the Bucks are in for a long rebuild. 

I do prefer this route over taking Brown and a pick or 2 and shooting for the play in tourney. 

 

Unfortunately those picks we traded will probably be top 5 (our own) for the next couple years.  For Jrue (and the title) it was worth it.  For Dame, meh.

what years (in the next 5) do we actually own our own pick?  Not until 2029?  Or even later?

[wallus]

2 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

As has been said, with the new draft lotto system, anything is possible so long as the team either misses the playoffs or is a play-in team.  Much flatter odds for the top 3 picks to be random.

Makes a little difference but stars will continue to want to play in Miami

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

2 minutes ago, wallus said:

Makes a little difference but stars will continue to want to play in Miami

Another reason why having Portland’s picks (I know that wasn’t an option) would have been so much better.

oh well, the whole thing is a crapshoot.  

[wallus]

I am hoping to hear that Herro got rerouted tonight

[adambr2]

49 minutes ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

Unfortunately those picks we traded will probably be top 5 (our own) for the next couple years.  For Jrue (and the title) it was worth it.  For Dame, meh.

what years (in the next 5) do we actually own our own pick?  Not until 2029?  Or even later?

I believe it’s 2031. 
 

I actually don’t think we will be top five pick bad. Ware and Jaquez should be pretty decent building blocks. Too soon to tell on Jakucionis, but he’s very young.

They need to value ceiling over immediate production on both picks tonight. But I think they’re better today than any day they played without Giannis last season, which was almost 60% of the time and they got rid of Doc,

I think they’re probably a 32 or so win team again. Not that it really matters much because to your original point it’ll be a long time before they control their picks unless they can swing some more deals.

[adambr2]

I think this has the potential to look really bad for Miami in a few years. I am glad we own their ‘31 and ‘33s unprotected.

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, wallus said:

Makes a little difference but stars will continue to want to play in Miami

You're not wrong in principle, but a team can only have so many stars on it.  Generally, it's hard for a team to have more than 3 stars on it with max contracts, caps, aprons, etc., and at some point those stars are going to want to be stars on another team instead of a role player on a warm weather team.

Those other stars have to play somewhere.  As things are now, this is what, the 8th consecutive year with a different champion?  There are plenty of stars spread throughout the league, enough for different teams to win the championship.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

12 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I think this has the potential to look really bad for Miami in a few years. I am glad we own their ‘31 and ‘33s unprotected.

I agree with your assessment that they aren't going to be top 5 bad. I could actually see them getting into one of those play-in games if the coaching is strong. These players aren't bad.

For Miami I think they'll be fine. It's a go-for-it thing and they are one of a few teams that have a perpetual escape hatch because they're Miami. There will always be someone willing to be traded there.

[jay87shot]

OHere are expectations for the guys we got.

Ware.   Of the group he has the biggest upside. He should have the runway to average 30 minutes a game which should put him around 15/10 with a block and a half per. My worry with him is that he averaged under an assist a game and just over 1 free throw attempt. I think he ends up being a borderline allstar in the mold of a young Brook Lopez.

Jacquez.  We probably need to give him a rookie level extension along the line of what Jovic got from Miami (4/64). With no star he should be a guy who could score 20 a game with more usage. He is a good passer and seems to play hard. I think there is a younger Tobias Harris style player here.

Herro.  If he is open to like 3/105-114, I could see keeping him. If he wants over 40 million I would probably trade him for a couple picks if we can get it. Herro isn't my favorite but he is a good scorer and could be a solid 3 on a winning team.

Jac.   Clearly the biggest wild card, big point guards can be boom or bust. If he can play defense and shoot it well he has some Josh Giddey qualities I like. I doubt he end up being a score in his prime but he could be a 16/8/6 style leader.

The picks could be pretty good, at 13 we have lots of options if it is a contribute now player like Lenderbourg/Mara or more of a developmental player like Steinback/Lopez. The future picks could be really good since Giannis will be 35 in 2030.

[adambr2]

14 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I agree with your assessment that they aren't going to be top 5 bad. I could actually see them getting into one of those play-in games if the coaching is strong. These players aren't bad.

 

Supposedly the Heat really didn’t want to deal Jakucionis and the Bucks refused to do the deal unless he was in it.

I hope the Bucks can turn around and get something for Turner. He just isn’t a fit now. 

Not sure what the best thing to do with Herro is, trade or extend.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

43 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

OHere are expectations for the guys we got.

Ware.   Of the group he has the biggest upside. He should have the runway to average 30 minutes a game which should put him around 15/10 with a block and a half per. My worry with him is that he averaged under an assist a game and just over 1 free throw attempt. I think he ends up being a borderline allstar in the mold of a young Brook Lopez.

Jacquez.  We probably need to give him a rookie level extension along the line of what Jovic got from Miami (4/64). With no star he should be a guy who could score 20 a game with more usage. He is a good passer and seems to play hard. I think there is a younger Tobias Harris style player here.

Herro.  If he is open to like 3/105-114, I could see keeping him. If he wants over 40 million I would probably trade him for a couple picks if we can get it. Herro isn't my favorite but he is a good scorer and could be a solid 3 on a winning team.

Jac.   Clearly the biggest wild card, big point guards can be boom or bust. If he can play defense and shoot it well he has some Josh Giddey qualities I like. I doubt he end up being a score in his prime but he could be a 16/8/6 style leader.

The picks could be pretty good, at 13 we have lots of options if it is a contribute now player like Lenderbourg/Mara or more of a developmental player like Steinback/Lopez. The future picks could be really good since Giannis will be 35 in 2030.

Great post 

[wiguy94]

4 hours ago, homer said:

Yeah drafting for ceiling when they needed floor was bad. Giannis turned into kind of a goober the last 18 months but probably because the front office continually pissed him off.

I will not defend the FO because I think it’s been mostly bad since the summer they drafted Giannis and got Khris in a trade but I think Giannis constantly threatening the Bucks to stay competitive didn’t make it easy. They had to keep blowing up their future assets because Giannis was doing the half in/half out thing. When your megastar is doing that you end up doing dumb things like trading for an overweight 33 year old Lillard who didn’t want to be in Milwaukee. I think the window was probably closed at that point but that trade cemented the window being completely shut.

[wiguy94]

3 hours ago, wallus said:

I will never assume that a warm weather destination team will be very bad, like top 3 pick bad

With the lottery changes they don’t need to be top 3 pick back. They just need to be in the lottery which is entirely possible come 2031 and 2033

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I will not defend the FO because I think it’s been mostly bad since the summer they drafted Giannis and got Khris in a trade but I think Giannis constantly threatening the Bucks to stay competitive didn’t make it easy. They had to keep blowing up their future assets because Giannis was doing the half in/half out thing. When your megastar is doing that you end up doing dumb things like trading for an overweight 33 year old Lillard who didn’t want to be in Milwaukee. I think the window was probably closed at that point but that trade cemented the window being completely shut.

I never understood the Dame hype.  He has the Blazers on the cusp of the finals once and scored a ton in Portland, but he never struck me as more than the 2010s version of Jerry Stackhouse

[wiguy94]

Just now, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

I never understood the Dame hype.  He has the Blazers on the cusp of the finals once and scored a ton in Portland, but he never struck me as more than the 2010s version of Jerry Stackhouse

It was the move of a desperate FO. Giannis was doing his thing of being non-committal and saying if the team is competitive I’m happy. The injuries were starting to wear on Khris so they needed a guy who could be the second offensive option. 

That offseason was just so bad for the Bucks. You hire Griffin and build the roster out like Jrue is your PG only to trade for Dame and have a horribly constructed roster around him. Remember Malik Beasley being used as the on-ball stopper that year? What a joke that was. 

I’ve said it a couple times but not here. I think the Bucks were always forced to sell the future for the present the last 6+ years because they did basically nothing right from the moment Giannis and Khris got to Milwaukee until the summer they hired Bud and signed Brook. The Jason Kidd era was disastrous for the Bucks. So many bad signings/trades and they whiffed so badly on some prime draft picks (bad luck obviously on the Jabari pick)

[owbc]

28 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

It was the move of a desperate FO. Giannis was doing his thing of being non-committal and saying if the team is competitive I’m happy. The injuries were starting to wear on Khris so they needed a guy who could be the second offensive option. 

That offseason was just so bad for the Bucks. You hire Griffin and build the roster out like Jrue is your PG only to trade for Dame and have a horribly constructed roster around him. Remember Malik Beasley being used as the on-ball stopper that year? What a joke that was. 

I’ve said it a couple times but not here. I think the Bucks were always forced to sell the future for the present the last 6+ years because they did basically nothing right from the moment Giannis and Khris got to Milwaukee until the summer they hired Bud and signed Brook. The Jason Kidd era was disastrous for the Bucks. So many bad signings/trades and they whiffed so badly on some prime draft picks (bad luck obviously on the Jabari pick)

It's a true godsend that they won a championship so we don't have to look back in shame on the Giannis era. In the long run I think the glass half full view will win out because a ring is a ring and there is a parallel universe where Durant's toe was behind the line and Giannis sees the writing on the wall and peaces out a few years earlier. 

The glass half empty view is that even with mediocre management and better injury luck we should have been in the finals 3-4 times and won at least two championships. With great management and great injury luck we could have been a dynasty. 

[wallus]

46 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

With the lottery changes they don’t need to be top 3 pick back. They just need to be in the lottery which is entirely possible come 2031 and 2033

Yes but how often are teams like the Lakers and Heat in the lottery?

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, wallus said:

I will never assume that a warm weather destination team will be very bad, like top 3 pick bad

I didn't assume anything, I just didn't assume they'd be good or the picks would be bad. 

And the new lottery system significantly improves the chances of a mediocre team, just like last years Heat team... picking top 3. 

[BrewerFan]

40 minutes ago, wallus said:

Yes but how often are teams like the Lakers and Heat in the lottery?

The Heat just were and the lottery is expanded to 16 teams.

Didn't they also pick in the lottery a couple years ago? I believe we traded for a lottery pick of theirs... but under the old system, not the newer system that gives a FAR better chance when over half the league is in it. 

In fact, don't they have a better chance if they're just not a playoff team than if they're a bottom 3 team?

[Joseph Zarr]

Prince and Harris having Player Options at their respective stages, and where the Bucks org is at, in their careers is about as on brand of Bucks FO work as there is. Unbelievable work. The PO lineage is SO strong in the Bucks FO history. Maybe, just maybe, there is a Prince cheap vet fit in Miami so he can phantom Ring Chase with Giannis?

[LouisEly]

3 hours ago, wallus said:

Yes but how often are teams like the Lakers and Heat in the lottery?

Heat (based on new lottery system as of 2027)
2026 - Lotto (#14 pick)
2025 - Lotto (#11)
2024 - Lotto (#15)
2023 - no lotto
2022 - no lotto
2021 - no lotto
2020 - no lotto
2019 - Lotto (#13)
2018 - Lotto (#16)
2017 - Lotto (#14)

Six of the last 10 years they would have been in the lotto under the new system, including each of the last 3 years.
 

[Jopal78]

4 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

I will not defend the FO because I think it’s been mostly bad since the summer they drafted Giannis and got Khris in a trade but I think Giannis constantly threatening the Bucks to stay competitive didn’t make it easy. They had to keep blowing up their future assets because Giannis was doing the half in/half out thing. When your megastar is doing that you end up doing dumb things like trading for an overweight 33 year old Lillard who didn’t want to be in Milwaukee. I think the window was probably closed at that point but that trade cemented the window being completely shut.

The NBA is tough. You're irrelevant as a contender without a superstar, and when the team has a superstar that player has all the leverage and can influence who’s on the team, who’s coaching the team and ultimately how long they stay with the team which makes contending consistently that much more difficult.

It is too bad. It ended up this way because the Bucks are entering a lengthy period of rebuilding without the potential of high picks usually necessary to find a superstar, and they’ll kill off their fan base again like in the 90s and early 2000s spinning their wheels with season after season of poor to mediocre play. 

[patrickgpe]

6 hours ago, wallus said:

I am hoping to hear that Herro got rerouted tonight

There are online rumors about him going to Detroit. I wouldn't be surprised if the trade grows to 3-5 teams before its official as the bucks continue to try to get picks. That is what happened last year to the Durant trade, but I think that one was 7 teams. 

[jay87shot]

Brooklyn seems to be giving it a go after getting Randle. I think they could be an interesting spot for Herro.

Herro and Gary Harris for Danny Wolf, #28, and a future 1st 

The Nets have salary to absorb Herro. We get 3 young assets and salary cap help to sign someone like Dieng or a different younger upside free agent. Also holding a future Nets 1st round pick is alway a good idea.

We could possibly add Turner into that with maybe Terrence Mann if it means getting another draft pick.

For Brooklyn #6 (pg), Herro, MPJ, Randle, Turner sounds like a competitive team. However that team only works for a year or two and by no means is a contender. Owning 2029 and later picks would be a good idea.