Trade deadline day thread

[markedman5]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

The Brewers most recent “best chance to win a World Series” was before Game 7 of the 2018 NLCS.

27 teams had already been eliminated, all they had to do was beat the Dodgers then win four of seven versus Boston. FanGraphs gave that sequence of events a 9.0% chance of happening.

No matter what moves are or aren’t made, early in the season or at the deadline, the Brewers are always going to be a World Series long shot.

If you use the season to date filter the brewers have the best odds of anyone to win the WS……of course the chance of them not winning is still much higher…….as it is with every team right now

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2025-playoff-odds.shtml

[RWeeksFan23]

15 hours ago, Matt said:

Had no idea so many people would lose their minds over losing out on Amed Rosario and Willi Castro. 

you must be new around here

[Daubs]

15 hours ago, adambr2 said:

He’s been amazing. I would have to think the other shoe has to drop at some point, I can’t see how he just became a 1.150 OPS hitter overnight, but if he even continues at .900 that’s a massive offensive upgrade from what we’ve had at 1B.

It could be the coffee.....😉

[markedman5]

Which contender snapped up Civale? 
 

Did I miss it? 

[rickh150]

7 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

I wasn’t expecting a blockbuster move, but something like Hairston in 2011, Moustakas in 2018, and Santana and Canha in 2023 would have helped with depth.

Relief pitcher and backup OF is something…I guess we see Turang at SS in August and Ortiz can backup every position.  The new guy can play some 2B too, and I expect him to hit too.  
But yeah….I don’t get it. They need a bat  or just some extra depth at SS/3B and they couldn’t get even an upgrade to bench.  

[TURBO]

It's gross that we are going to be playing the Padre outfielder (I have already forgotten his name) as Chourio hits the IL.

I still can absolutely not believe that Cortes wasn't worth more than this guy, plus we had to add Quintana to the deal to even get it done.

Just gross.

[wibadgers23]

5 minutes ago, TURBO said:

It's gross that we are going to be playing the Padre outfielder (I have already forgotten his name) as Chourio hits the IL.

I still can absolutely not believe that Cortes wasn't worth more than this guy, plus we had to add Quintana to the deal to even get it done.

Just gross.

Yeah very bizarre trade but then again I hated the Priester deal so what do I know?

[Brewcrew82]

7 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

I would say you’re dodging the question by using a small sample produced by a player whose MLB and minor league performance should tell you that what he’s done since being called up from the minors isn’t likely to continue. 

This is over 250 PAs which is not exactly a small sample. These are also his PREDICTIVE metrics. Not his surface level numbers. Which indicate that while he's not likely to continue to hit like prime Bonds, we're very much likely to continue to get high level production from him. 

[82brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, SRB said:

We're clearly a trade deadline winner simply because the Cubs did not go all in. The trade deadline matters most for ensuring you win your division. Once we get to the playoffs anything can happen.

So you're saying the Cubs would have had a better chance if they had gone all in?

[TURBO]

ghostdrew,

I notice you like giving people the thumbs down on posts, but never say why you disagree?

Going by your last thumbs down, you like the Cortes trade?  You think we got fair market value?  You like the Padres OF we got in return and think he will help us out?

Man up and back up all those thumbs down reactions you seem to be so fond of.

 

[TURBO]

28 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Yeah very bizarre trade but then again I hated the Priester deal so what do I know?

Same...  Didn't like it either, but here we are... :)

[MVP2110]

Padres gave up all those prospects and didn't even land a projected impact guy. Fangraphs gives them a 5.7% chance to win the World Series, B-Ref gives them a 3.1% chance. Woof

 

 

[Bulldogboy]

16 hours ago, Matt said:

This strawman you've built is impressive. No one would have been upset over an upgrade. I think some are just more realistic over how much of an upgrade was out there. 

In fact there were plenty of upgrades out there. The Mets and Yankees added 4 relief pitchers a piece. Just a matter of the price. Again we are all fans of the same team so it's just how you see it. I think they could have done more. You feel like they have the best team in baseball and couldn't.  We shall see where you land if they get lapped by the field in a month or so.

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, Bulldogboy said:

In fact there were plenty of upgrades out there. The Mets and Yankees added 4 relief pitchers a piece. Just a matter of the price. Again we are all fans of the same team so it's just how you see it. I think they could have done more. You feel like they have the best team in baseball and couldn't.  We shall see where you land if they get lapped by the field in a month or so.

The prospect price that was paid for those relievers this deadline was substantial. 

For Mason Miller, we would've had to trade Made. 

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

This is over 250 PAs which is not exactly a small sample. These are also his PREDICTIVE metrics. Not his surface level numbers. Which indicate that while he's not likely to continue to hit like prime Bonds, we're very much likely to continue to get high level production from him. 

Maybe it would have helped if, instead of presenting a graph with nothing but percentages you had included some pure numbers, it would have been clear what sample you were using.  But anything about Vaughn that throws his Brewers stats in with the rest is skewed. 

Even with his Brewers ABs thrown in Vaughn has a pretty unexciting OPS+ of 86 in 2025. If you had told me the Brewers were acquiring that I wouldn’t have been excited. 

[endaround]

Just now, BruisedCrew said:

Maybe it would have helped if, instead of presenting a graph with nothing but percentages it would have been clear what sample you were using.  But anything about Vaughn that throws his Brewers stats in with the rest is skewed. 

Even with his Brewers ABs thrown in Vaughn has a pretty unexciting OPS+ of 86 in 2025. If you had told me the Brewers were acquiring that I wouldn’t have been excited. 

Well at least Vaughn has neve ever had a huge month like this before right?

What that's? June 2024 he hit .337/.371/.561? Well nonetheless he's clearly is just happy to be away from Chicago and he will continue hitting.

 

 

[ghostdrew]

2 hours ago, TURBO said:

It's gross that we are going to be playing the Padre outfielder (I have already forgotten his name) as Chourio hits the IL.

I still can absolutely not believe that Cortes wasn't worth more than this guy, plus we had to add Quintana to the deal to even get it done.

Just gross.

Its ok his name is Brandon lockridge there u go.

[ghostdrew]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

ghostdrew,

I notice you like giving people the thumbs down on posts, but never say why you disagree?

Going by your last thumbs down, you like the Cortes trade?  You think we got fair market value?  You like the Padres OF we got in return and think he will help us out?

Man up and back up all those thumbs down reactions you seem to be so fond of.

 

Hey turbo thanks for the response but maybe you can actually put my name on your comment so I actually know .Any way yes I like it great defense speed and gap power.He also played with Durbin and siegler  in the minors so knows guys on the team.Basically is Perkins  there you go anything else u need turbo.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

15 hours ago, ghostdrew said:

Who is the scrub miller under 2era and 10 saves nope can't be him oh that prospect must be real close and we have no if  prospect better .

Lockridge

[Brewcrew82]

28 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Maybe it would have helped if, instead of presenting a graph with nothing but percentages you had included some pure numbers, it would have been clear what sample you were using.  But anything about Vaughn that throws his Brewers stats in with the rest is skewed. 

Even with his Brewers ABs thrown in Vaughn has a pretty unexciting OPS+ of 86 in 2025. If you had told me the Brewers were acquiring that I wouldn’t have been excited. 

You've officially missed the point.

[sveumrules]

34 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Maybe it would have helped if, instead of presenting a graph with nothing but percentages you had included some pure numbers, it would have been clear what sample you were using.  But anything about Vaughn that throws his Brewers stats in with the rest is skewed. 

Even with his Brewers ABs thrown in Vaughn has a pretty unexciting OPS+ of 86 in 2025. If you had told me the Brewers were acquiring that I wouldn’t have been excited. 

The pure numbers looks like this...

2022 Vaughn
xwOBA: .319
wOBA: .327

2023 Vaughn
xwOBA: .319
wOBA: .321

2024 Vaughn
xwOBA: .319
wOBA: .304

As his actual production gradually tapered off over the last three years, Vaughn's under the hood expected StatCast numbers stayed very consistent.

2025 Vaughn
xwOBA: .354
wOBA: .290

Unfortunately StatCast doesn't break down expected wOBA by team, but it's easy to see the Vaughn from this year is a different hitter under the hood than the Vaughn from the last three years.

Now of course no one should expect him to keep up the .475 wOBA he's got with the Brewers so far, that would be preposterous. But we also shouldn't be giving very much weight to the .231 wOBA he posted with the White Sox earlier this year as there was clearly as much or more bad luck in there than there is good luck in what he's doing now. 

Some guys with an actual wOBA in the range of Vaughn's .354 xwOBA this year are Matt Olson (.356 wOBA), Tatis Jr. (.355 wOBA), Gunnar Henderson (.353 wOBA), Mike Trout (.351 wOBA) and Bobby Witt (.351 wOBA).

[Fear The Chorizo]

57 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

In fact there were plenty of upgrades out there. The Mets and Yankees added 4 relief pitchers a piece. Just a matter of the price. Again we are all fans of the same team so it's just how you see it. I think they could have done more. You feel like they have the best team in baseball and couldn't.  We shall see where you land if they get lapped by the field in a month or so.

What relievers would you have recommended the Brewers jettison off their current mlb staff to make room for these 4 relievers, knowing you'd also have to send a bunch of prospects to acquire these new guys, too? The Brewers dont need to replace 1/3rd of their pitching staff.

The economics of baseball show up at the trade deadline, too - huge market teams can add constantly knowing they can just cut checks in the offseason to fill holes.

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You've officially missed the point.

Either I’m too stupid or you are not being very clear. What is your point?

Where was all of this analysis when the Brewers acquired Vaughn telling everyone what a great move it was?

[brewcrewdue80]

Start of today Brewers ranked 5th in MLB in runs per game.  They are 7th in Runs allowed per game in MLB. Better than all 4 teams that are ahead of them in runs scored per game.

Keep in mind the first 4 games of season, team was outscored 47-15.  That accounts for 11.1% of total 422 runs scored by opponents.  Of 3.7pct games played on season.

 

They would be 2nd in baseball at 3.61 runs per game, removing that horrid start.

The team isnt mid in baseball. That's top 5 stuff. With rookies improving as they gain experience. With injured players having impacts upon return. Yeli is over 20HRs on an entire season with 54 games in regular season to go.  So I give a pass on the deadline results.

The blaring weakness at the plate being Ortiz. Not only the #1 but also #2 prospects in the minors are at A ball today. Never a surprise for a promotion to AA before this season ends by at least 1 of them.  To me, next season would be the year to see a blockbuster trade by its deadline.

[brewcrewdue80]

Just now, BruisedCrew said:

Either I’m too stupid or you are not being very clear. What is your point?

Where was all of this analysis when the Brewers acquired Vaughn telling everyone what a great move it was?

I certainly put a positive spin on Vaughn with statcast.  Also with Priester's statcast after a couple days noticing a pitch usage change.