Peralta’s Realistic CY Young Opportunity

[rickh150]

I would be the first last week to laugh at this. Peralta has trouble breaking the 5th inning, struggles with command, and can look lost at times. But still oh still what a season overall! Dependable. Makes big pitches to get out of trouble. Big on Ks (9th in NL), Sub 3 ERA (7th in NL), 5th WHIP, 1st Wins. Is it possible that he is arguably our third or fourth best starting pitcher this season and WINS the CY Young?

I will say a shaky yes. But he has to finish the season extra well.  With presumably 8 starts left, it could happen.

If Brewers win division and get bye..,.. if Peralta wins 6 of 8 starts….and if his ERA drops to mid 2s,  I think he can do it. A 20 win pitcher with a mid 2 ERA on a giant slaying small market team could make a pretty good case, especially if the front runners Skenes, Wheeler, Boyd, etc. fade a bit.

That would be pretty wild considering one could make the argument the first 3 starts of a playoff series belong to Woodruff, Miz, and Priester.

 

[StearnsFTW]

I'd put his odds around 100-1.

[dlk9s]

He has close to a zero percent chance. He'll get votes, but he would not only have to earn wins in most of the rest of his starts to get to around 20 total, but he would have to absolutely dominate to make his other numbers too good to ignore. 

[nate82]

9 hours ago, rickh150 said:

A 20 win pitcher with a mid 2 ERA on a giant slaying small market team could make a pretty good case, especially if the front runners Skenes, Wheeler, Boyd, etc. fade a bit.

Wins don't mean that much any more and really shouldn't have ever meant anything.  The front runners would have to absolutely collapse for Peralta to get enough first place votes to win.  Right now it is Skenes' or Wheeler's to lose.  They would have to get their ERA above 3.00.  I think Sanchez has a better chance of winning than Peralta does. 

[torts]

He will get votes but he won't win

[duewizard]

He'd have to go 7-0 40+ IP 50+ K under 5 BB and under 10 ER and I still doubt he'd get it

[Thurston Fluff]

He'll get some votes, and he should, but I doubt he gets it. I think Peralta's season is underappreciated by a lot of people. He deserves to be in the conversation. Truth be told I'm pulling for Skenes. It'd be nice to see Pirate fans have something to be proud of and a pitcher with a losing record winning it would finish any merit wins have left.

[sveumrules]

Skenes (148 IP)
50 ERA- | 62 FIP-
6.1 rWAR | 4.7 fWAR

Sanchez (144 IP)
55 ERA- | 67 FIP-
5.8 rWAR | 4.1 fWAR

Wheeler (144 IP)
63 ERA- | 70 FIP-
4.9 rWAR | 4.0 fWAR

(barring injury / explosion down the stretch I’d imagine these will be the Top Three vote getters since their performance is a clear notch above the rest of the NL pitchers)

Boyd (135 IP)
60 ERA- | 78 FIP-
4.5 rWAR | 3.4 fWAR

Abbott (123 IP)
55 ERA- | 85 FIP-
4.3 rWAR | 2.9 fWAR

Peralta (136 IP)
70 ERA- | 91 FIP-
4.2 rWAR | 2.6 fWAR

Lodolo (129 IP)
70 ERA- | 86 FIP-
3.8 rWAR | 2.4 fWAR

Yamamoto (126 IP)
68 ERA- | 73 FIP-
3.7 rWAR | 3.4 fWAR

Webb (153 IP)
82 ERA- | 67 FIP-
3.0 rWAR | 4.0 fWAR

(would guess Freddy will be fighting for fourth / fifth place votes among these guys)

[Outlander]

When Spencer Stider was 20-5 a couple of years ago he didn't get any first place votes and didn't really deserve any. He did finish 4th when he probably should have been even further down but think the 20 wins stood out. So I'll go with Peralta finishing 4th if he gets to 20 wins.

[young guns]

15 hours ago, rickh150 said:

That would be pretty wild considering one could make the argument the first 3 starts of a playoff series belong to Woodruff, Miz, and Priester.

 

While most fans would put those 3 in some order for the top 3, if given free money to bet on it I'm sure almost everyone would put their money on peralta getting the ball in game 1 if healthy.

[rickh150]

5 hours ago, young guns said:

While most fans would put those 3 in some order for the top 3, if given free money to bet on it I'm sure almost everyone would put their money on peralta getting the ball in game 1 if healthy.

Agreed. I think Murphy pitches him Game 1 too if Game 1 is next week. 

[adambr2]

We literally go from discussing if we even trust Peralta to start a playoff game to discussing his Cy Young chances within the span of one calendar week. 

To echo others, Peralta isn’t a legit contender — probably borderline top 5, but he’s underappreciated.

I should disclaim that by saying “right now” because there’s still time for him to go on a crazy tear. Isaac Collins wasn’t a legit ROTY contender until he was.

[DonBarclay]

1. Make 7 more starts, win them all. End season 22-5. Have most Wins in MLB

2. Not allow a run over those 7 starts, with at least 42 innings. ERA ends at 2.14. Win ERA title. 

3. 46+ K’s, to clear 200

That should do it. So, .00000001% chance. 

 

[bm1090]

1/1. Up to a .0001 percent chance 

[homer]

Now that Wheeler is out indefinitely, it may bump his odds a percentage point or two.

 

Also, Zack Wheeler is 35? Yeesh.

[igor67]

If the Pirates would trade Skenes to a contender so we can rough him up again good that would help.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

3 hours ago, homer said:

Now that Wheeler is out indefinitely, it may bump his odds a percentage point or two.

 

Also, Zack Wheeler is 35? Yeesh.

That is crazy.  Seems like yesterday he was being traded to us

[markedman5]

Peralta is 4th in odds as of today……sounds about right 

https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/mlb?tab=awards

[StearnsFTW]

5 hours ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

That is crazy.  Seems like yesterday he was being traded to us

It does seem that way.  And it was 10 years ago.

 

[StearnsFTW]

4 hours ago, markedman5 said:

Peralta is 4th in odds as of today……sounds about right 

https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/mlb?tab=awards

Because Wheeler got hurt.  Peralta was 100-1 a week ago. 

If guys continue to get hurt he has a shot.

[TURBO]

On 8/13/2025 at 12:05 AM, rickh150 said:

That would be pretty wild considering one could make the argument the first 3 starts of a playoff series belong to Woodruff, Miz, and Priester.

 

Actually, there is no argument at all, Freddy is going to start one of those 3 games, my money's on game 1.  If we are sold on Miz only going 3-4 innings, he may be the odd man out as far as starting a playoff game if we go with a rotation of 3.

[BrewerFan]

On 8/13/2025 at 12:05 AM, rickh150 said:

That would be pretty wild considering one could make the argument the first 3 starts of a playoff series belong to Woodruff, Miz, and Priester.

...could you though?

[rickh150]

2 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

...could you though?

Yes.
You wait a week until Woody finally loses a game….and after Miz has a blowup against Reds.  Then you go to work.  
I think the playoff starters are still a fluid situation. Peralta has been the best, most consistent starter all season,  The other 3 have been so good for us minus a blip here or there. And Quintana could get a playoff start too, especially if we get into a seven game series. 
 

[Team Canada]

It's the internet, you can find someone to argue anything; but there's not a real world scenario where Freddy is healthy and does not start a game (and almost certainly it's game 1.

[Outlander]

Freddy has been the most consistent starter and has made every start. With his 5-6 innings starts he is perfect for the playoffs. Can rely on Peralta more than anybody on this team, including Woodruff.