2025-26 Offseason Around the League Thread

[markedman5]

Cards sending 20 million in the deal

 

[jay87shot]

The Cards essentially get a back of the rotation arm and younger upside prospect for paying Gray $20 million next year, not to bad for the Cards. I don't get the Boston angle because I would think they could find a starter for 1/20 on the free agent market that is a similar quality. Gray is still a quality starter but no longer a top of the rotation guy and at 36 could be less effective than last year. For 20 they could do better (or at least similar) and not give up 2 arms.

[CheezWizHed]

25 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

The Cards essentially get a back of the rotation arm and younger upside prospect for paying Gray $20 million next year, not to bad for the Cards. I don't get the Boston angle because I would think they could find a starter for 1/20 on the free agent market that is a similar quality. Gray is still a quality starter but no longer a top of the rotation guy and at 36 could be less effective than last year. For 20 they could do better (or at least similar) and not give up 2 arms.

I wonder what Quintana will sign for? Sonny pitched more innings last year, but otherwise they pretty much had the same results for the same age. 

[Frisbee Slider]

17 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I wonder what Quintana will sign for? Sonny pitched more innings last year, but otherwise they pretty much had the same results for the same age. 

I’d expect Quintana to receive a similar contract in 2026. Quintana struck out hardly anyone over 131.2 IP (6.1 K/9) and had FIP of 4.81 - which is bad.

Gray struck out 201 batters over 180 IP with a 3.39 FIP - which is good.

[snoogans8056]

Really wonder what we’d get for Peralta now. Thats a worse pitcher, on a worse one year deal,

[sveumrules]

16 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I wonder what Quintana will sign for? Sonny pitched more innings last year, but otherwise they pretty much had the same results for the same age. 

2025 Gray (180 IP)
122 K+ | 61 BB+ | 108 HR+
104 ERA- | 84 FIP- 

2025 Quintana (130 IP)
73 K+ | 108 BB+ | 106 HR+
95 ERA- | 116 FIP-

50 extra IP and way better K/BB rates. Gray's 5.29 K/BB ratio was 7th of 95 pitchers with at least 130 IP last year, Quintana's 1.78 K/BB ratio was 91st on that same leaderboard.

Kind of interesting looking at Gray's ERA/FIP relationship for his career. First ten years his ERA beat his FIP six of ten seasons for an overall line of 3.51 ERA | 3.61 FIP over 1,507 IP.

Last two years though he is at a 4.07 ERA | 3.26 FIP, with that +0.81 differential the third largest wrong way gap out of 78 pitchers with at least 250 IP the last two seasons.

Could be a two year blip, could be indicative of some kind of underlying issue BOS might have to correct to get Sonny's run prevention more in line with his peripherals.

[Madhawk23]

12 minutes ago, snoogans8056 said:

Really wonder what we’d get for Peralta now. Thats a worse pitcher, on a worse one year deal,

If 36 yr old Sonny Gray at $20M next year is returning Fitts and Clarke to the Cards, then I'd have to figure that 29 yr old Freddy Peralta at just $8M next year would be worth Connelly Early and Luis Perales.....which I'm guessing Arnold would pull that trigger in a heartbeat.  Unfortunately, I would assume that getting Gray will take the Sox out of the Freddy Peralta sweepstakes now.  

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, snoogans8056 said:

Really wonder what we’d get for Peralta now. Thats a worse pitcher, on a worse one year deal,

Still less than we got for Burnes I'd imagine.

Peralta is about $8M cheaper in 2026 than Burnes was in 2024 so that helps somewhat, but Freddy is also a worse pitcher...

Corbin 2021-23 (562 IP)
133 K+ | 79 BB+ | 71 HR+
82 AVG+ | 70 ERA- | 69 FIP-
16.2 rWAR | 15.5 fWAR

Freddy 2023-25 (516 IP)
130 K+ | 106 BB+ | 109 HR+
85 AVG+ | 81 ERA- | 93 FIP-
12.4 rWAR | 8.9 rWAR

Both were about the same at getting Ks and allowing hits in their three seasons before FA, but Corbin is way ahead on innings, limiting walks, avoiding home runs, and overall run prevention.

[Madhawk23]

17 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Still less than we got for Burnes I'd imagine.

Peralta is about $8M cheaper in 2026 than Burnes was in 2024 so that helps somewhat, but Freddy is also a worse pitcher...

Corbin 2021-23 (562 IP)
133 K+ | 79 BB+ | 71 HR+
82 AVG+ | 70 ERA- | 69 FIP-
16.2 rWAR | 15.5 fWAR

Freddy 2023-25 (516 IP)
130 K+ | 106 BB+ | 109 HR+
85 AVG+ | 81 ERA- | 93 FIP-
12.4 rWAR | 8.9 rWAR

Both were about the same at getting Ks and allowing hits in their three seasons before FA, but Corbin is way ahead on innings, limiting walks, avoiding home runs, and overall run prevention.

On the surface, I would definitely agree with you.  Corbin Burnes was unarguably a better pitcher than Freddy is at this same stage of them hitting the 1-year from FA point in the careers.  However, I do think that Freddy being significantly cheaper than Corbin could equal things out considerably.  The other somewhat unknown here is the market demand for SP's this winter compared to the winter that we ended up trading Corbin.  The Red Sox having to give up both Fitts and Clarke for one year of a 36 yr old Sonny Gray (making well over double what Freddy is owed next year) gives me some hope that we could make out pretty good if there is a team out there that really wants Fred.  Takes two to tango though as we know, so I guess we'll see if anything plays out in the coming weeks/months.

[tmwiese55]

Based on this deal along Woodruff probably made a mistake.   I'd probably lean towards Bos overpaying as the more likely outcome though.    But in another timeline how would Bos rather do what they did here rather than just give Woodruff 1/25

[Thurston Fluff]

32 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

2025 Gray (180 IP)
122 K+ | 61 BB+ | 108 HR+
104 ERA- | 84 FIP- 

2025 Quintana (130 IP)
73 K+ | 108 BB+ | 106 HR+
95 ERA- | 116 FIP-

50 extra IP and way better K/BB rates. Gray's 5.29 K/BB ratio was 7th of 95 pitchers with at least 130 IP last year, Quintana's 1.78 K/BB ratio was 91st on that same leaderboard.

Kind of interesting looking at Gray's ERA/FIP relationship for his career. First ten years his ERA beat his FIP six of ten seasons for an overall line of 3.51 ERA | 3.61 FIP over 1,507 IP.

Last two years though he is at a 4.07 ERA | 3.26 FIP, with that +0.81 differential the third largest wrong way gap out of 78 pitchers with at least 250 IP the last two seasons.

Could be a two year blip, could be indicative of some kind of underlying issue BOS might have to correct to get Sonny's run prevention more in line with his peripherals.

 

I don't think peripherals are always as indicative of production as some people think but I base that on some pitchers who tend to regularly out/under perform their FIP. When the same pitcher changes from their normal pattern I think there's something going on.

[markedman5]

6 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Based on this deal along Woodruff probably made a mistake.   I'd probably lean towards Bos overpaying as the more likely outcome though.    But in another timeline how would Bos rather do what they did here rather than just give Woodruff 1/25

My guess is Woody’s agent was well aware of the market before he accepted the Brewers offer……..I mean it’s what agents are paid for.

Maybe Boston was worried about Woodys health…..or Woody decided that for a 1 year deal for similar money he’d rather stay with the brewers.

[Madhawk23]

32 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

My guess is Woody’s agent was well aware of the market before he accepted the Brewers offer……..I mean it’s what agents are paid for.

Maybe Boston was worried about Woodys health…..or Woody decided that for a 1 year deal for similar money he’d rather stay with the brewers.

Yeah, I think Woody's health concerns/unknowns played a HUGE role in him accepting the QO with us. Sonny Gray has been the beacon of health over his MLB career, so I'm sure Boston was much more willing to give a guy like that $20M next year than they would have been to throw $20+M at a guy like Woody for multiple years that is still coming back from a pretty major shoulder repair.  

[CheezWizHed]

8 hours ago, Thurston Fluff said:

 

I don't think peripherals are always as indicative of production as some people think but I base that on some pitchers who tend to regularly out/under perform their FIP. When the same pitcher changes from their normal pattern I think there's something going on.

Exactly. I didn't say they were the same (or even similar) pitchers. I said they had similar results

Gray: 4.28 ERA and 1.4 WAR (180.2 IP)

Quintana: 3.96 ERA and 1.3 WAR (131.2 IP)

Now, swap the defenses they pitch in front of, and the results will change. And of course Sonny is the better pitcher.

But the point was that Gray is getting $20M from Boston and Quintana got $4.5M last year (and is available without needing to trade for him). 

[SF70]

15 hours ago, Madhawk23 said:

If 36 yr old Sonny Gray at $20M next year is returning Fitts and Clarke to the Cards, then I'd have to figure that 29 yr old Freddy Peralta at just $8M next year would be worth Connelly Early and Luis Perales.....which I'm guessing Arnold would pull that trigger in a heartbeat.  Unfortunately, I would assume that getting Gray will take the Sox out of the Freddy Peralta sweepstakes now.  

I don’t think Arnold pulls the trigger on that return.

Not for a backend starter (Early) and bullpen arm (Perales), even if that pen arm ends up in HL. Early might be ready next season, Perales probably not.

That trade weakens the Brewers 2026 BL team considerably, imo.

[markedman5]

Who says crime doesn’t pay?

 

[markedman5]

210 million for Dylan Cease…….

 

[TURBO]

Francys Romero reports that Tatsuya Imai will meet with MLB teams in December.

 

Romero says that the 27-year-old will head stateside in December before meeting with “several clubs.” Imai has been one of the best hurlers in Japan over the past couple of years and is coming off a 2025 campaign that saw him forge a 1.92 ERA and 178/45 K/BB over 163 2/3 innings with the Seibu Lions. He’ll be looking at multi-year deal with his new club, with some believing he could get the highest AAV of any free-agent starter this winer.

 

Source: Francys Romero

[jay87shot]

7/210 for Dylan Cease is going to go down as a horrific contract. I get he has has ace stuff and has been super durable. However he doesn't go deep into starts and is super inconsistent 3.88 career era (3.67 FIP). At 30, I doubt he is a guy who can adjust his style of pitching if he loses a couple mph. He could very well be a Cy Young winner but he could also be someone who doesn't post a sub 3.5 era during the contract.

[sveumrules]

8 hours ago, jay87shot said:

7/210 for Dylan Cease is going to go down as a horrific contract. I get he has has ace stuff and has been super durable. However he doesn't go deep into starts and is super inconsistent 3.88 career era (3.67 FIP). At 30, I doubt he is a guy who can adjust his style of pitching if he loses a couple mph. He could very well be a Cy Young winner but he could also be someone who doesn't post a sub 3.5 era during the contract.

Yeah, definitely seems like Toronto had to pay a little Canada Tax to secure Cease's services. His body of work compared to last year's free agent SP and their sticker prices...

2021-25 Cease (884 IP | 7th)
(ranks among 85 pitchers min. 500 IP)
90 ERA- (32nd) | 80 FIP- (12th) | +0.35 ERA/FIP (78th)
132 K%+ (3rd) | 117 BB%+ (84th) | 82 HR9+ (16th)
90 AVG+ (9th) | 101 LOB%+ (57th)
15.6 rWAR (19th) | 20.6 fWAR (4th)
[7/210 heading into age 30]

2020-24 Burnes (816 IP | 3rd)
(ranks among 89 pitchers min. 450 IP)
69 ERA- (5th) | 72 FIP- (2nd) | -0.13 ERA/FIP (32nd)
127 K%+ (8th) | 80 BB%+ (39th) | 72 HR9+ (8th)
84 AVG+ (5th) | 105 LOB%+ (16th)
23.2 rWAR (2nd) | 21.7 fWAR (2nd)
[6/210 heading into age 30]

2020-24 Fried (659 IP | 25th)
(ranks among 89 pitchers min. 450 IP)
67 ERA- (2nd) | 76 FIP- (8th) | -0.29 ERA/FIP (14th)
103 K%+ (43rd) | 74 BB%+ (29th) | 57 HR9+ (2nd)
93 AVG+ (21st) | 107 LOB%+ (12th)
20.2 rWAR (3rd) | 15.4 fWAR (11th)
[8/218 heading into age 31]

2018-24 Snell (878 IP (30th)
(ranks among 96 pitchers min. 600 IP)
74 ERA- (10th) | 77 FIP- (10th) | -0.18 ERA/FIP (24th)
142 K%+ (4th) | 126 BB%+ (96th) | 73 HR9+ (10th)
81 AVG+ (2nd) | 110 LOB%+ (7th)
25.5 rWAR (7th) | 21.0 fWAR (12th)
[5/182 heading into age 32]

[long ball]

The Cease contract is probably a pretty good indicator what a Freddy contract could be. 
 

not that I think many are advocating for extending Freddy or re-signing him next year. 

[sveumrules]

38 minutes ago, long ball said:

The Cease contract is probably a pretty good indicator what a Freddy contract could be. 
 

not that I think many are advocating for extending Freddy or re-signing him next year. 

Good call, obviously Freddy will need to stay healthy one more season, and he’ll be one year older than Cease when he hits FA, but here’s how his body of work compares…

2021-25 Freddy (738 IP | 27th)
(ranks among 85 pitchers min. 500 IP)
79 ERA- (12th) | 87 FIP- (24th) | -0.34 ERA/FIP (11th)
132 K%+ (4th) | 106 BB%+ (77th) | 97 HR9+ (40th)
81 AVG+ (1st) | 109 LOB%+ (5th)
18.7 rWAR (8th) | 14.8 fWAR (19th)

Cease has the advantage in durability and HR prevention, but Freddy is thee literal hardest guy to get a hit off of and he kills Cease on strand rate too which helps his ERA play well below his FIP compared to Cease whose run prevention doesn’t live up to his peripherals.

[markedman5]

 

[markedman5]

 

[dlk9s]

This is really a random Brewers post, but there is a character in the new season of Stranger Things named Derrick Turnbow.