Cubs favorite to win the Central…….again

[TURBO]

23 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

But are the 2026 Cubs actually better than last year’s version?

We shall see.

I won't be too surprised if they still have another move in them...

[sveumrules]

32 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

But are the 2026 Cubs actually better than last year’s version?

Check back in October, until then all anyone is doing is guessing (with varying degrees of emotion/research going into each guess depending on the individual).

[Sixtolezcano]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

There is a little more of an onus on the Cubs to get better. They lost the division by five games last year.

They they lost Tucker (4.5 WAR), Brad Keller (2.2 rWAR), and Drew Pomeranz (1.3 rWAR) to free agency. That's another eight wins out the door.

Trading for Cabrera and signing Bregman mitigates those losses some for sure, and will probably even be enough to make them Division Favorites amongst the punditry again.

And that's all fine, the Brewers haven't been Division Favorites in any of the last three seasons but won the NLC every year anyway, and by two dozen combined games to boot.

When the Cubs are still paying 35/36 year old Bregman $35M a few years from now the Brewers could have Made or Fischer or Pena or who knows what kind of young trade acquisition in their prime playing third base. 

The way things are going,, a few years are not a certainty.

[mudbutt]

2 hours ago, TURBO said:

We shall see.

I won't be too surprised if they still have another move in them...

They most likely tucked the Bregman contract under the luxury tax with deferrals so I don’t see them doing anything more. Unless they want to get zesty with a trade ie trade Nico and slot Shaw at second.

[daboss]

Aloha Folks, as a Cub fan who respects the Brewers very much, I'm very disappointed in Jed. He couldn't let Bregman go after last season. In fact, the team may have won as many games had they kept Paredes and Cody. They could still trade for Cabrera if they wanted. I was looking forward to seeing the youth get a chance like in Milwaukee. I wanted to see Shaw again at 3B, Caissie in the OF and Moises getting some AB's, thus I wanted the FO to sign a starter out of free agency. Instead they give a guy coming off of an injury season, WAR of 3.5, $35 mil dollars for each of the next 5yrs! Watch Jed trade away Nico or Shaw now. I think the Brewers can repeat as division champs. Good luck to your Brewers. I need some aspirin for my Cubs, lol. Mahalo!

[Tedaldtada]

Bregman is a really good all-around player on a per game basis. Could see him getting some MVP votes with good health. Shaw is a great fallback option. I also think Cabrera was a good bet for them. They moved their chips in for this year and acquired fringe blue chippers. I’d be very happy if the Brewers had made similar moves.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

If the Cubs don't retain Tucker they've replaced his bat with an older, lesser player. But hey, shiny object I guess

[nate82]

5 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

If the Cubs don't retain Tucker they've replaced his bat with an older, lesser player. But hey, shiny object I guess

Right now it is down to the Mets, Blue Jays and Dodgers for Tucker.  The Cubs have been out for a long time on Tucker like end of game 5 of the NLDS out.  

[Jopal78]

9 hours ago, nate82 said:

Right now it is down to the Mets, Blue Jays and Dodgers for Tucker.  The Cubs have been out for a long time on Tucker like end of game 5 of the NLDS out.  

The Cubs were done with Tucker last season after the calendar flipped to July. He hit just 5 homeruns after June 30th, and batted .220.

With just PCA, Happ and Suzuki (who mostly played DH in ‘25) on the roster, Tucker a free agent and Cassie since traded, I would imagine the Cubs are still looking for someone to play OF/DH.

[mudbutt]

Alcantara is out of options so they will have him as a outfielder and then would expect Ballesteros to be the regular DH so not sure they would bother signing anyone except maybe an old veteran bench bat.

[markedman5]

 

[igor67]

I feel like someone had written a story a while ago about 1 part of what the Brewers are doing that seems to cause a lot of the projections systems to keep under estimating them, but don't remember what it was specifically.

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, igor67 said:

I feel like someone had written a story a while ago about 1 part of what the Brewers are doing that seems to cause a lot of the projections systems to keep under estimating them, but don't remember what it was specifically.

Essentially the Brewers excel at everything projections struggle the most to capture.

Elite defense and speed gets regressed heavily towards the middle.

Brewers rely on young depth more than a top heavy lineup of established stars.

They’ve also found out of nowhere guys pretty consistently that helps them pick up a few wins over the preseason projections too.

[Frisbee Slider]

If Team X wins 97 games in 2025, brings back everyone except one starting pitcher, it is interesting how a projection dips 14 games from reality.

 

[TURBO]

If these idiots keep picking the Cubs, at some point, they will get it right, even if it is a 1 out of 10, they can claim victory. 

Idiots.

[Thurston Fluff]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Essentially the Brewers excel at everything projections struggle the most to capture.

Elite defense and speed gets regressed heavily towards the middle.

Brewers rely on young depth more than a top heavy lineup of established stars.

They’ve also found out of nowhere guys pretty consistently that helps them pick up a few wins over the preseason projections too.

One has to wonder how difficult it could be to project given the Brewers keep finding that type of player. I think there's some amount of bias baked into what people try to measure. Instead of determining how much defense and speed are really worth they just try to make projecting defense and speed as accurately as they can. If you never determine absolute value you can assess a specific ability perfectly and get no closer to determining how much it will help.

[brewcrewdue80]

8 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

If Team X wins 97 games in 2025, brings back everyone except one starting pitcher, it is interesting how a projection dips 14 games from reality.

 

They also lost Collins/Myers. If you had bet over it's likely increasing a win after Donavan trade.

 

It is amazing, you're right, that a 97win team with 3? AS, nothing ridiculous standing out at the plate for expected regression, could have such low wins projected. Enjoy the easy money.

[owbc]

16 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

They also lost Collins/Myers. If you had bet over it's likely increasing a win after Donavan trade.

 

It is amazing, you're right, that a 97win team with 3? AS, nothing ridiculous standing out at the plate for expected regression, could have such low wins projected. Enjoy the easy money.

The known biases of the projection systems are baked into betting lines. People won't be fooled again. The Brewers won't surprise anyone paying attention when their o/u is 89.5 wins. 

However, they've hit 90 three years in a row, so smart money would be on the 'over' again. 

[tmwiese55]

10 minutes ago, owbc said:

The known biases of the projection systems are baked into betting lines. People won't be fooled again. The Brewers won't surprise anyone paying attention when their o/u is 89.5 wins. 

However, they've hit 90 three years in a row, so smart money would be on the 'over' again. 

The Over/unders were out at least last week sometime.  One was 83.5 and another 84.5.   I will be invested in this as I have the last few years.   For the most part, you can just bet MKE and Cle overs every year and clean up.

I just looked at caesars and cubs are +115 and MKE is +250.  Last year we were +350

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Projection systems hate the Brewers

Water is also wet.

[brewcrewdue80]

On 2/4/2026 at 10:19 AM, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Projection systems hate the Brewers

Water is also wet.

I think they cant give good projections since the Brewers turnover their roster due to team Control and a lack of 3+year Free Agent signings.  Oddly enough docking Yelich due to age regression. By the time they have the book on a Brewer 3rd-4th year playing, he's traded before becoming a Free Agent.

The skill with finding RPs for the season, or even 1 week can't be projected.

[Playing Catch]

My theory-du-jour is that the things that are really challenging to project, are things with situational data points and measures. I would guess that it's really hard to measure the collective stress and pressure the Brewers lineup can put on a pitcher, and his defense. I think often times, this is chalked up as "luck," when instead, it's just a thing that's really hard to measure.

As a pitcher, you really have to be a defender, in mindset, rather than the attacker. You have to deal with deep counts, dinkers, doinkers. righties, lefties... It's hard to get these guys out. They make your team earn it with every pitch.

As a defender, it's no different. The catcher has to be ON-POINT. He will need to call and frame against disciplined hitters. He'll need to be ready for foul tips and bunts. He'll need to defend the running game with his arm and awareness. The infielders and outfielders need to know their plays and scouting. One could go on.

As a collective, the Brewers are just a super-charged competitive team with every pitch. Gosh, do I love it.