NL Central Discussion 2026

[owbc]

2 hours ago, Underachiever said:

After Bregman struck out in the 9th with the bases loaded last night, someone posted this on the Cubs site. I'm still chuckling: 

Only 4 1/3 more years and about $120 million to go! 

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, owbc said:

Only 4 1/3 more years and about $120 million to go! 

To get a feel for the state of 3B league-wide, Fangraphs has Bregman at 1.8 WAR and B-Ref has him at 2.4 WAR.

From what I understand, B-Ref's calculations are based more on actual production and Fangraphs more to be predictive.  Almost at the 2/3rds point of the season, and with WAR being a counting stat, he's on track to achieve 2.7 fWAR and 3.6 bWAR.  At ~$9M/FA WAR, that's pretty much on track with what they are paying him.

[wiguy94]

3 hours ago, Underachiever said:

After Bregman struck out in the 9th with the bases loaded last night, someone posted this on the Cubs site. I'm still chuckling: 

The Bregman contract is going to be fun to look back on over the next few years because him signing that contract with the Cubs indirectly led to us getting Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan.

[wiguy94]

50 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

To get a feel for the state of 3B league-wide, Fangraphs has Bregman at 1.8 WAR and B-Ref has him at 2.4 WAR.

From what I understand, B-Ref's calculations are based more on actual production and Fangraphs more to be predictive.  Almost at the 2/3rds point of the season, and with WAR being a counting stat, he's on track to achieve 2.7 fWAR and 3.6 bWAR.  At ~$9M/FA WAR, that's pretty much on track with what they are paying him.

That's on the pitching side not the hitting side. Baseball-reference derives pitching WAR through runs allowed while fangraphs derives pitching WAR through FIP.

The position player side typically has gaps because baseball-reference weights defense much more heavily than fangraphs does and they use different measurements to evaluate defense. Baseball-reference uses DRS and fangraphs uses OAA/FRV. 

For reference this is Caleb Durbin's value by b-ref and fangraphs this year 

B-ref - -2 runs batting, +2 runs baserunning, +9 runs fielding, +2 runs positional adjustment which is 11 runs above average plus 12 runs adjusting from average to replacement. That leaves him 23 runs better than replacement for 2.3 bWAR

Fangraphs - -4 runs batting, +1.9 runs baserunning, +3.6 runs fielding, +1.3 runs positionally, they have +1.7 run adjustment to league average then plus 10.4 runs adjusting from average to replacement. That leaves him 14.9 runs better than replacement for 1.5 fWAR. 

So Durbin has 0.8 more bWAR than fWAR and defensively baseball reference has him 6.1 runs better than fangaphs does defensively so 75% of the gap between the two comes from defensive value.

This is why Turang had a huge gap between bWAR and fWAR in 2024. DRS viewed him as +22 and FRV viewed him as +5. Bref viewed his defense as worth 27 runs and fangraphs as worth 5.6 runs which is how one ends up with 4.8 bWAR and 2.6 fWAR.

[owbc]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

To get a feel for the state of 3B league-wide, Fangraphs has Bregman at 1.8 WAR and B-Ref has him at 2.4 WAR.

From what I understand, B-Ref's calculations are based more on actual production and Fangraphs more to be predictive.  Almost at the 2/3rds point of the season, and with WAR being a counting stat, he's on track to achieve 2.7 fWAR and 3.6 bWAR.  At ~$9M/FA WAR, that's pretty much on track with what they are paying him.

That is a good point. Bregman is OPSing .699 and we were talking in the IGT last night about solving our 3B woahs if Joey can manage to OPS in the upper .600s. 

OPS at 3B is up to .711 league wide this year, still trailing the overall average of .722. 

The anti-Bregman perspective is that it's year 1 of a 5 year deal that will surely have frontloaded production and he's not even producing at the league average 3B rate. 

That's a lot of money for a 1-1.5 win advantage over Milwaukee at 3B -- and our 3B situation has gone almost as poorly as it could have possibly gone. 

[markedman5]

 

[WittBrewer]

Does anyone know what the Brewers record is when Gary Sanchez is catching?

[wiguy94]

20 minutes ago, WittBrewer said:

Does anyone know what the Brewers record is when Gary Sanchez is catching?

I don't know about record but Brewers ERA with Gary catching is right there next to their ERA with Contreras catching

[Frisbee Slider]

19 minutes ago, WittBrewer said:

Does anyone know what the Brewers record is when Gary Sanchez is catching?

Milwaukee is 23-19 when Gary Sanchez starts a game this season. However, that includes both catcher and designated hitter.

[liveforoctober]

52 minutes ago, WittBrewer said:

Does anyone know what the Brewers record is when Gary Sanchez is catching?

I tried to go through his game logs on BREF and only count his catching starts and I came up with 15-11. I am unwilling to double check my work so take it with a grain of salt.

[yfinn6]

Cubs lose 5-1. 

 

[Underachiever]

14 hours ago, markedman5 said:

 

Cubs love Brewer castoffs the same way the Vikings sign ex-Packers.

[formerlybis]

13 hours ago, WittBrewer said:

Does anyone know what the Brewers record is when Gary Sanchez is catching?

Not criticizing you, per se, but I think this is too simplistic a way of looking at things - at least for a position player. Starting Pitchers? Yes. Everyone else? No - I suppose you can make the argument that the C is the most influential position player, but they still are way below the impact of the SP.

Everyone agrees Contreras is the preferred starter. But you need to have a backup, and Sanchez is a better backup than most (if he could just stop patting his head uncontrollably...)

[SeaBass]

14 hours ago, markedman5 said:

 

Live look at the Cubs brass' first meeting with Greg Jones (or any of their other ex-Brewers pick ups.)