Brewers (Woodruff) vs Red Sox (Bello): 4/6/26, 5:45pm

[Frisbee Slider]

Right-hander Brayan Bello starts for Boston. Bello last started against Milwaukee on May 25, 2025 allowing 3 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB while striking out 2 over 4.2 IP. The Brewers won 6-5 in 10 innings. Bello has not made it out of the 5th inning in any of his three starts against Milwaukee. 

Woodruff has one career start against Boston on July 29, 2022. Woodruff allowed only 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB while striking out 9 over 6.1 IP. Brewers won 4-1.

Milwaukee swept Boston at American Family Field last year. source

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Ashby	9	0	0	41	0	50
Anderson, G	15	0	0	0	12	27
Hall	19	0	0	38	0	57
Woodford	0	0	0	0	0	0
Zerpa	0	0	0	0	23	23
Uribe	0	0	0	14	14	28
Koenig	0	0	0	17	0	17
Megill	0	0	0	22	12	34

[RobDeer 45]

Glad there isn’t an off day today! I’m excited for this series. I love Fenway, so watching the Brewers play there is a blast. Weather doesn’t look great for baseball but that’s spring. Have a game Woody!

[young guns]

That bullpen usage looks ugly.

[Frisbee Slider]

2 minutes ago, young guns said:

That bullpen usage looks ugly.

Six from Woodruff would be nice. Would we use Woodford with a two run lead in the sixth or seventh? Or a tie game?

It would be nice to not use Megill or Uribe. Anderson and Koenig are probably fine today. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Oh btw, for anyone out in New England:

The Ultimate Fan Guide to Fenway Park - Boston Red Sox Guides & Resources - Talk Sox

TALKSOX.COM

---

All the tips, tricks, and hacks you'll need to maximize your visit to the legendary Fenway Park.

 

[jay87shot]

The Sox are 2-7 and fans have been chanting for the owners to sell the team. I am excited to watch us sweep the Sox and have complete choas.

53 minutes ago, young guns said:

That bullpen usage looks ugly.

I was thinking that it would seem like Koenig or Anderson might soon "develop" an injury and we will get some run from Crow or McGee or whomever.  

[kestrel79]

3 hours ago, young guns said:

That bullpen usage looks ugly.

Just wait till our 2-3 stretches later this year where we play like 20 games in a row without an off day...at some point going to need some starters to start going deeper, or piggy back. Or just have Ashby pitch every game like we have :)

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, jay87shot said:

The Sox are 2-7 and fans have been chanting for the owners to sell the team. I am excited to watch us sweep the Sox and have complete choas.

I was thinking that it would seem like Koenig or Anderson might soon "develop" an injury and we will get some run from Crow or McGee or whomever.  

Drohan recalled 

[Team Canada]

Koenig to IL.

[Outlander]

Would be great if Woodruff pitches a strong 6 innings and Woodford/Drohan can finish it up in a blowout.

[sveumrules]

4 hours ago, kestrel79 said:

at some point going to need some starters to start going deeper,

I generally agree that the rotation covering as many innings as possible is the best way to go, but it's kind of interesting looking back at 2021 to 2023 when the Brewers had all of Burnes (562 IP of 70 ERA- | 69 FIP-), Woodruff (399 IP of 65 ERA- | 74 FIP-), and Peralta (384 IP of 79 ERA- | 79 FIP-) in the fold plus a nice back half of Houser (342 IP of 97 ERA- | 99 FIP-), Lauer (306 IP of 94 ERA- | 112 FIP-), and Miley (120 IP of 72 ERA- | 107 FIP-) the rotation came in in at 2,574 IP (6th) of 86 ERA- (2nd) and 90 FIP- (4th) shaking out to 50.5 rWAR (3rd) and 43.8 fWAR (4th) over those three seasons.

Over those same three seasons the bullpen posted 1,750 IP (21st) of 91 ERA- (8th) and 98 FIP- (17th) shaking out to 15.5 rWAR (7th), 10.5 fWAR (18th), and +19.31 WPA (3rd).

Put it all together and the staff as a whole from 2021 to 2023 had an 88 ERA- (3rd) and 94 FIP- (6th) for 66.0 rWAR (3rd) and 54.3 fWAR (7th). The defense helped them run a -0.27 ERA/FIP gap (3rd).

Starting in 2024 with Burnes traded and Woodruff on the mend the formula changed considerably. From then thru yesterday the Brewers rotation has 1,642 IP (26th) of 93 ERA- (8th) and 105 FIP- (24th) shaking out to 28.6 rWAR (12th) and 19.8 fWAR (22nd).

Of course this has necessarily increased the amount of innings covered by relievers, with the 2024 through yesterday Brewers bullpen posting 1,326 IP (4th) of 81 ERA- (2nd) and 91 FIP- (3rd) shaking out to 18.6 rWAR (1st), 12.1 fWAR (3rd), and +18.50 WPA (2nd).

Despite having to cover far more innings, the 2024 through yesterday bullpen has had considerably better results than the 2021 to 2023 bullpen that didn't have to throw nearly as much.

Put it all together and the staff as a whole from 2024 thru yesterday is at an 88 ERA- (1st) and 99 FIP- (18th) shaking out to 47.2 rWAR (3rd) and 31.9 fWAR (15th). The defense has helped them run a -0.44 ERA/FIP gap (1st).

Pretty wild that all is left of the Big Three is a post-shoulder surgery Woodruff, plus they've traded away two of the better relievers of the last decade in Hader and Williams, and at least to this point a little over two years in they haven't really lost any ground in a macro run prevention sense (with a big assist from the defense).

As of today it looks like FanGraphs Depth Charts has them projected at 4.39 runs allowed per game (13th), while PECTOA has them around 4.26 runs allowed per game (tied for 11th/12th) compared to them actually allowing 3.92 R/G (2nd) over their last 333 games since Murph arrived in 2024 and 3.99 R/G (3rd) over their last 819 games from 2021 thru yesterday. 

[Frisbee Slider]

Bello won that matchup against Mitchell. Low breaking ball fooled Garrett. 

[HarryDoyle]

Mitchell looked pretty foolish that at bat. Would've been nice just to put it in play.

[DonBarclay]

Just now, HarryDoyle said:

Mitchell looked pretty foolish that at bat. Would've been nice just to put it in play.

That AB is the one that Mitchell needs to remove from his game to have sustainable success. Really brutal. 

[yourout]

2 minutes ago, DonBarclay said:

That AB is the one that Mitchell needs to remove from his game to have sustainable success. Really brutal. 

Not a fan of him hitting 4

[Bulldogboy]

90 mph makes me sad for Woody 

[jason21nl]

Holy crap they need to do better with their challenges.  

[Simba2020]

Contreras sucks at challenges. Stop doing them when they are so borderline. 

[Frisbee Slider]

If it misses by a half inch, I have some sympathy. I agree that 2-0 count with one out in first inning is probably not on the optimal times to challenge flashcard.

[jason21nl]

1 minute ago, Simba2020 said:

Contreras sucks at challenges. Stop doing them when they are so borderline. 

Especially in the first inning when a walk isn’t necessarily the worst thing in the world. 

[HarryDoyle]

2 minutes ago, Simba2020 said:

Contreras sucks at challenges. Stop doing them when they are so borderline. 

And in the first inning. Sometimes it's okay to not challenge.

[Frisbee Slider]

Some adventure in the outfield. Woodruff's change up looks sharp.

[HarryDoyle]

Another 20+ pitch first inning, and on a day we could really use some length.

[yourout]

Going to be a four inning start for Woody.

[Bulldogboy]

Finally a Hamilton bunt. Do it every game buddy.