Padres (Waldron) vs Brewers (Sproat): 5/12/26, 6:40pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

Should be an interesting series. The Padres have faded since their hot start (that was at least partially luck-based), while the Brewers have the best rotation in baseball since Woodruff was injured. Baseball is weird, man.

	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TOT
Trevor Megill	0	0	0	13	0	13
Shane Drohan	0	40	0	0	0	40
Jake Woodford	0	0	0	0	0	0
Grant Anderson	0	0	0	0	0	0
DL Hall	0	0	16	20	0	36
Chad Patrick	0	0	48	0	0	48
Brian Fitzpatrick	0	0	0	0	0	0
Abner Uribe	0	0	0	14	0	14
Aaron Ashby	0	0	27	18	0	45

[sveumrules]

HITTERS
Brewers
97 wRC+ (19th) | 5.13 R/G (5th) | +2.06 WPA (4th)
Padres
92 wRC+ (25th) | 4.25 R/G (20th) | +1.59 WPA (5th)
[both teams have been opportunistic on offense ranking 1st and 2nd in FanGraphs Clutch metric]

STARTING PITCHERS
Brewers
85 ERA- (6th) | 88 FIP- (3rd) | +1.44 WPA (7th)
Padres
116 ERA- (26th) | 101 FIP- (19th) | +0.50 WPA (16th)
[clear edge to the Brewers here]

RELIEF PITCHERS
Brewers
85 ERA- (6th) | 81 FIP- (3rd) | -0.50 WPA (24th)
Padres
90 ERA- (8th) | 79 FIP- (2nd) | +1.91 WPA (4th)
[not too different on a rate basis in terms of either run prevention or peripherals, but big leverage advantage for the Padres with only five credited losses for their pen on the season versus eight for the Brewers. Arrows pointing in opposite directions though with Brewers relievers at -1.52 WPA (25th) thru April 25th but +1.03 WPA (8th) since while the Padres were at +2.12 WPA (3rd) thru April 25th but -0.21 WPA (25th) since]

FanGraphs gives the Brewers 54.4% Playoff Odds compared to 38.2% for the Padres while PECOTA has it as 66.3% for the Brewers versus 45.2% for the Padres.

If we flip FanGraphs from their default projections over to Season to Date mode it jumps to 82.8% Playoff Odds for the Brewers and 46.8% for the Padres.

Looks like FG's Season to Date mode also slightly favors the Brewers (41.5%) over the Cubs (36.1%) to win the division at this point.

[Underachiever]

Sproat for 5, Drohan for 3, then the ninth will be determined if it's a save situation or not. I'll go with not, so Grant Anderson finishes out a 6-2 victory.

[Team Canada]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Brewers have the best rotation in baseball since Woodruff was injured

Finally got rid of that dead weight holding us back.

[kestrel79]

Surprised to see the Pads out to a hot start. Didn't they sign a lot of their guys from their "core" a few years ago to all big contracts, and trade away a lot of their minor league talent to "win now" and it backfired on them? Or is it a lot of guys from that older core healthy to start a season plus some new guys as well. 

[yourout]

Looking forward to this series. 

Padres are an interesting team and hopefully we can keep the W train rolling.

[Brian]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Should be an interesting series. The Padres have faded since their hot start (that was at least partially luck-based), while the Brewers have the best rotation in baseball since Woodruff was injured. Baseball is weird, man.

	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TOT
Trevor Megill	0	0	0	13	0	13
Shane Drohan	0	40	0	0	0	40
Jake Woodford	0	0	0	0	0	0
Grant Anderson	0	0	0	0	0	0
DL Hall	0	0	16	20	0	36
Chad Patrick	0	0	48	0	0	48
Brian Fitzpatrick	0	0	0	0	0	0
Abner Uribe	0	0	0	14	0	14
Aaron Ashby	0	0	27	18	0	45

Did SD change there mind on who was pitching? 

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/padres-vs-brewers/2026/05/12/823790/preview

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 minutes ago, Brian said:

Did SD change there mind on who was pitching? 

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/padres-vs-brewers/2026/05/12/823790/preview

Looks like Rodriguez will be the opener, with Waldron following.

[Jim French Stepstool]

Looking forward to seeing the Brandon Sproat story continue to unfold. Pretty raw, but easy 99-100 can get you excited.

Love the shape of the BP going into this series. You may want to give Ashby one more day but otherwise good to go.

Yelich's return was sounding imminent. Anything new?

[liveforoctober]

13 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Looking forward to seeing the Brandon Sproat story continue to unfold. Pretty raw, but easy 99-100 can get you excited.

Love the shape of the BP going into this series. You may want to give Ashby one more day but otherwise good to go.

Yelich's return was sounding imminent. Anything new?

How will we get our first 20 game winner in 4 decades if we don't pitch him?

[Brewcrew82]

12 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Looking forward to seeing the Brandon Sproat story continue to unfold. Pretty raw, but easy 99-100 can get you excited.

Love the shape of the BP going into this series. You may want to give Ashby one more day but otherwise good to go.

Yelich's return was sounding imminent. Anything new?

Would imagine Murph will give us a definitive update this afternoon.

If I had to bet, though, I think he'll return in Minnesota or Chicago (which they'd ideally want him for). 

[liveforoctober]

 

I wonder how tempting it will be to put Chourio in center and have Bauers play left to keep his bat in the lineup against RHP.