Bauers to Red Sox 4/58M

[sveumrules]

The Brewers gave Hoskins 2/$34M for his Age 31/32 seasons coming off a missed season due to injury. The year before getting hurt Rhys put up 672 PA of 123 wRC+ (.342 xwOBA) for 2.4 WAR.

So far with the Brewers Vaughn has put up 585 PA of 138 wRC+ (.350 xwOBA) for 3.5 WAR. 2027 will be his Age 29 season.

So two years younger, better recent performance, not coming off a major injury, and with an Arby's projection around $8.5M (MLBTR) or $9.275M (Cot's) he will cost considerably less.

 

[Outlander]

12 hours ago, BrewCrew8675309 said:

Not sure what they do with Adams? The guy who out hit Black in the minors who also needs a place on the 40 man and cost wayyy less, A vote for Black is essentially a vote to go with Adams and save the 9mil-ish for all our arbitration cases.  

Not really, it is going to be Vaughn. Adams is another RH bat so doesn't have a spot. Black is filler and a bench guy, the type of guy they always carry to start the year.

[Mr Southpaw]

Here might be two solutions to First Base.

Scenario One  Sign Made long term and when he comes up in May he plays third base. That leaves a two person utility player in Ortiz and Hamilton. Against righties Hamilton moves to second base and Turang at 6'0' moves to first base. That is a magic defensive infield.

Scenario Two Against righties, move Garrett Mitchell (6'2") to first base and let Lara play center. He played third and shortstop before going to UCLA and is a great overall athlete..  Maybe a stretch, just a thought.

[cragi]

22 minutes ago, Mr Southpaw said:

Here might be two solutions to First Base.

Scenario One  Sign Made long term and when he comes up in May he plays third base. That leaves a two person utility player in Ortiz and Hamilton. Against righties Hamilton moves to second base and Turang at 6'0' moves to first base. That is a magic defensive infield.

Scenario Two Against righties, move Garrett Mitchell (6'2") to first base and let Lara play center. He played third and shortstop before going to UCLA and is a great overall athlete..  Maybe a stretch, just a thought.

Moving a platinum glover to first base would certainly be a choice. There's probably a better chance of Turang getting traded. There's not really a debate that when made comes up he and Pratt are going to split short and third with turang at second. Hamilton or ortiz utility

Mitchell or Yelich playing occasional first base is a possibility to get another left-handed bat in the lineup at times 

[Trail]

Did I hear correctly on the podcast that Yelich has been taking practice reps at 1st for quite a while now?  They opined that Yelich needed to find a spot on the field for 20 games or so...that you need to free up some AB's at DH.  

As for Adams...I didn't really pick it apart, but on the surface the R/L splits don't look bad.  .278 against lefties vs .263 against righties.  He didn't get many AB's against lefties, but had 7 HR in just 54 AB's.  Over .400 OBP against both.  From what I've read, he's the most major-league-ready option the Brewers have in the system.  

[adambr2]

14 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Rigged against the Brewers and still won…. 
Brewers title > 3 Dodgers titles….. but it’s close. 

I’m not saying baseball’s current system is perfect, it isn’t, but I don’t know if you guys fully realize how much of it is actually the very thing allowing a team that is very good at draft and development, but with payroll constraints, to compete. 

Having 6-7 years of control of a player upon entry into MLB is enormous for the Brewers and has been a big part of their success not just this year but over the last decade. 

If that were to be lowered to 4-5 in the next CBA, it’s not an instant death knell, but it’s potentially devastating for the Brewers model long-term.

Careful what you wish for. You might get the change you were asking for. 

[homer]

Having money isn't a guarantee of success, as many teams have shown over the years. You still need a good farm system and smart upper management. But you can also take risks other teams can't and bounce back faster if they don't pan out.

[adambr2]

32 minutes ago, homer said:

Having money isn't a guarantee of success, as many teams have shown over the years. You still need a good farm system and smart upper management. But you can also take risks other teams can't and bounce back faster if they don't pan out.

Good way of putting it. The system isn’t “rigged” in the sense of preventing small markets from being able to compete entirely - obviously. You can still absolutely compete if you draft and scout well. 

You just have less margin for error, Which is part of the reason that the Brewers lately prefer to invest their money in locking up their own young talent beyond the typical years of control - Chourio, Pratt, Lara. 

[Sixtolezcano]

17 hours ago, RWeeksFan23 said:

None of our minor league 1B are more talented than Bauers, come on man.

Maybe as of 11-14-2026. But I would venture at least 2 Brewer MiLB players will outperform him in the MLB in the next 5 years.

[Brewcrew82]

13 hours ago, adambr2 said:

10M is just not much in MLB these days. 

Vaughn could totally flop and be replaced midseason and the 10M is pretty much a shrug off. 

I think you could argue that 22M wasn’t a great investment in Woodruff even without the benefit of hindsight. So I wouldn’t necessarily presume to guess right now what they might be thinking of Vaughn and his future. I don’t think 10M for him is unreasonable, however. 

Disagree. For a small market franchise it does. 

They pretty much never pay relievers that amount, trading them before they get that expensive. Vaughn's fWAR is projected to be about the same as Trevor Megill, who they're reportedly open to trading. 

I can see them going with Vaughn as there is a legitimate argument that the hammate sapped his power, but again. I'm not totally convinced for the aforementioned reasons. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

The Brewers gave Hoskins 2/$34M for his Age 31/32 seasons coming off a missed season due to injury. The year before getting hurt Rhys put up 672 PA of 123 wRC+ (.342 xwOBA) for 2.4 WAR.

So far with the Brewers Vaughn has put up 585 PA of 138 wRC+ (.350 xwOBA) for 3.5 WAR. 2027 will be his Age 29 season.

So two years younger, better recent performance, not coming off a major injury, and with an Arby's projection around $8.5M (MLBTR) or $9.275M (Cot's) he will cost considerably less.

 

These are all good points, but I wouldn't leave out that Vaughn's metrics declined last year.

I also don't think the Brewers were happy with their investment in Hoskins in hindsight. Plus they didn't have a Luke Adams, for instance, mashing in AAA back then. 

[Sixtolezcano]

17 hours ago, RWeeksFan23 said:

None of our minor league 1B are more talented than Bauers, come on man.

As of 11-14-2026 that is true, however, I would guess in the next 5 years at least two of the Brewer’s MiLB players that can play 1st base will be much better than Bauers.

 

[Brewcrew82]

Funny enough the Bauers signing effectively signals the end of Tristan Casas in Boston. If the Brewers do keep Vaughn, Casas would make a lot of sense for them as a left-handed platoon option to replace Bauers. 

[BrewerFan]

15 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Nothing about pre-2026 Jake Bauers indicated that a breakout like this was coming in 2026. 

Also, teams absolutely pay for past production knowing contracts won’t age well. Sometimes it’s a necessary evil of the business. We are doing it right now with Christian Yelich. I think the smart people in the room in Milwaukee knew in 2020 that Christian Yelich was not going to be worth 26 million dollars in 2027.

I suspect they also thought he'd be worth considerably more than 22M in 2020, 2021, 2022. 

He'd just put up 14.5 WAR, .327/.415/.631 and a 1.045 OPS, and they gave him 7 years and 188.5M in new money...

I do not think they were expecting him to be a star in 2027, but... I'd imagine they were expecting him to be one for several more years and even by 2027, a solid hitter.... and I actually DO think they thought he'd be worth 26M(or the 22 they were paying and the deferred money). 

 

14 hours ago, adambr2 said:

It’s possible, but I think it’s worth mentioning that expected statistics aren’t literal measurements of luck and we should be careful about interpreting them for more than just one piece of the information.

Again, I don't think anyone is talking about "expected statistics." 

They're talking about all the metrics that point to... what type of hitter you were. Not just Steamer.

Hard hit, chase, bat speed... there's not much to argue for regression.... 

[Yaz]

4 hours ago, adambr2 said:

It’s okay to question ridiculous salaries.

When you do, are you also questioning the owners becoming rich far beyond what any player could dream of off of the entertainment provided by the players, or just scoffing at the players for making millions off a game?

BINGO!  It is a 2 way street,  Won't argue with you on this.

[BrewerFan]

17 hours ago, RWeeksFan23 said:

None of our minor league 1B are more talented than Bauers, come on man.

More "talented?"

What's this even mean? Just pure talent? Eric Bitonti is probably more talented. I'd guess he's #5 on the list of internal options to take over 1B and he's still a couple years away. 

Fischer is probably more "talented," if we're being literal. 

Do you mean better or just purely talented?

You could argue it I suppose. Saying "C'mon man," like it's some outrageous claim... tells me you're inserting "better today," for "talented."

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, Trail said:

Did I hear correctly on the podcast that Yelich has been taking practice reps at 1st for quite a while now?  They opined that Yelich needed to find a spot on the field for 20 games or so...that you need to free up some AB's at DH.  

As for Adams...I didn't really pick it apart, but on the surface the R/L splits don't look bad.  .278 against lefties vs .263 against righties.  He didn't get many AB's against lefties, but had 7 HR in just 54 AB's.  Over .400 OBP against both.  From what I've read, he's the most major-league-ready option the Brewers have in the system.  

Occasionally during BP, I think there was a video back in August.

I wouldn’t read anything into it though. Players all the time will play random positions during BP…doesn’t mean anything beyond that. Yelich was likely just doing it to loosen up and do something pregame. I didn’t find anything about the Brewers commenting on him playing 1B.

Jake Bauers was well entrenched at first base by the time Yelich was taking grounders in mid-August. Yelich on the flip side was well entrenched into a horrible year. If you wanted the DH spot that bad you would have just benched Yelich. No way the Brewers were considering swapping Bauers and Yelich in the DH/1B spot. I know Bauers had the bum foot, but Yelich really ain’t much healthier.

But yah, I’d guess it was just a nothing burger.

[TigerUppercut]

30 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Funny enough the Bauers signing effectively signals the end of Tristan Casas in Boston. If the Brewers do keep Vaughn, Casas would make a lot of sense for them as a left-handed platoon option to replace Bauers. 

Small sample sizes but Casas has hit lefties better than righties the past two years.  

[Brian]

17 hours ago, RWeeksFan23 said:

None of our minor league 1B are more talented than Bauers, come on man.

May be but ... Bauers just had the best season of his career this year and he is no spring chicken being 31 years old.  He has an elevated price/value now.  Let him go, his contract now takes him to the end of his age 35 MLB year.  No way the Brewers should have done that.  Some of you talk like he is Ted Williams or something. 

[homer]

3 minutes ago, TigerUppercut said:

Small sample sizes but Casas has hit lefties better than righties the past two years.  

I wonder if a change in venue would help? Fenway kind of sucks for lefties historically I believe. Bauers may regress a bit in the power dept for that reason alone.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

The Brewers gave Hoskins 2/$34M for his Age 31/32 seasons coming off a missed season due to injury. The year before getting hurt Rhys put up 672 PA of 123 wRC+ (.342 xwOBA) for 2.4 WAR.

So far with the Brewers Vaughn has put up 585 PA of 138 wRC+ (.350 xwOBA) for 3.5 WAR. 2027 will be his Age 29 season.

So two years younger, better recent performance, not coming off a major injury, and with an Arby's projection around $8.5M (MLBTR) or $9.275M (Cot's) he will cost considerably less.

 

I’m not sure this is a fair comparison.  We kept Vaughn out versus tough RHP, whereas Hoskins was an everyday player.

i think most would also agree that the contract we gave Hoskins was a big miss

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, BrewerFan said:

I suspect they also thought he'd be worth considerably more than 22M in 2020, 2021, 2022. 

He'd just put up 14.5 WAR, .327/.415/.631 and a 1.045 OPS, and they gave him 7 years and 188.5M in new money...

I do not think they were expecting him to be a star in 2027, but... I'd imagine they were expecting him to be one for several more years and even by 2027, a solid hitter.... and I actually DO think they thought he'd be worth 26M(or the 22 they were paying and the deferred money). 

 

Again, I don't think anyone is talking about "expected statistics." 

They're talking about all the metrics that point to... what type of hitter you were. Not just Steamer.

Hard hit, chase, bat speed... there's not much to argue for regression.... 

What type of hitter he was in 2026, or what type of hitter he has been in his career?

I would say when a 31 year old shatters their previous career high in wRC+ and BABIP, there is plenty of an argument for some regression.

I would also guess that if they expected Bauers to play at a very solid level for several more years they would have matched 4/58, which is fairly reasonable. 

[markedman5]

https://www.cbssports.com/watch/mlb/video/the-brewers-offseason-outlook?ftag=CBS-16-10adi8d

[liveforoctober]

2 hours ago, homer said:

I wonder if a change in venue would help? Fenway kind of sucks for lefties historically I believe. Bauers may regress a bit in the power dept for that reason alone.

I would be shocked if that is true. Doesn't Fenway have the shortest right field wall distance in all of baseball?.. and it is like 4 ft tall to boot. Any ball to the warning track in right at AmFam is a home run in Boston. I would think lefties dream of hitting there.

Although maybe they get pull conscious because of it and overswing or something... who knows.

[Brian]

4 hours ago, Trail said:

Did I hear correctly on the podcast that Yelich has been taking practice reps at 1st for quite a while now?  They opined that Yelich needed to find a spot on the field for 20 games or so...that you need to free up some AB's at DH.  

As for Adams...I didn't really pick it apart, but on the surface the R/L splits don't look bad.  .278 against lefties vs .263 against righties.  He didn't get many AB's against lefties, but had 7 HR in just 54 AB's.  Over .400 OBP against both.  From what I've read, he's the most major-league-ready option the Brewers have in the system.  

You may have heard it but the chances of him playing 1st are almost nil.  He will be a DH the rest of his career and not be taking on a new position IMHO.