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The Speed/Power Milwaukee Brewers


splitterpfj
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The Brewers can hit more home runs than the other guys, and they can outrun the other guys too. This offense really is outstanding, I hope people can see how unique it is to be this good when the ball is carrying...and still be this good on cold nights when the ball goes nowhere.

 

I tip my cap to Doug Melvin for building an offense that is so difficult to stop.

 

The additions of Aoki and Segura have pushed the team speed to the top of the league, and somehow, the team HR count never missed a beat without Prince.

 

Very impressive.

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This offense has been incredible really. Here is where they rank in the NL

 

Runs - 1

Home Runs - 1

SB - 1 while being in the bottom half of CS

BA - 5

OBP - 3

Slug - 1

OPS - 2 - behind the Rockies by .001

 

We lead by almost 30 in HPB

For as many runners as we put on base we are in the bottom of half of GDP.

 

Pretty crazy to think where the offense could be if Izturis hadnt had to play and if Weeks would have hit even remotely like himself the first part of the year. This offense lost a lot of pop at SS when Gonzalez went down and yet they have put really good numbers

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I think the huge amount of power and speed on this team should be pretty clear evidence that overdoing sac bunts isn't necessary. I have never had a huge problem with bunting but with as much power and speed this team has whats the point of giving up an out other than in the most obvious bunting situations? It seems that we haven't bunted as much recently but that might be selective memory
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Don't forget we're the best at giving the defense free outs too!

 

Is there a formula that equates team wOBA (this is basically the best rate statistic, right?) to expected run total? And then compare that expected run total to actual run total? I would think that would give evidence in one direction or another if we have tilted too far in being aggressive on the basepaths to the point of it being detrimental. Not proof either way, but it would provide some evidence, no?

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Brewers are 4th in baseball in wOBA and 4th in wRC+. They are 3rd in runs. They are about average in BsR which is supposed to measure baserunning. While we are aggressive it isn't really helping or hurting us much statistically. You would have to look a lot deeper to know if it is helping or hurting situationally.
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This offense has been incredible really. Here is where they rank in the NL

 

Runs - 1

Home Runs - 1

SB - 1 while being in the bottom half of CS

BA - 5

OBP - 3

Slug - 1

OPS - 2 - behind the Rockies by .001

 

We lead by almost 30 in HPB

For as many runners as we put on base we are in the bottom of half of GDP.

 

Pretty crazy to think where the offense could be if Izturis hadnt had to play and if Weeks would have hit even remotely like himself the first part of the year. This offense lost a lot of pop at SS when Gonzalez went down and yet they have put really good numbers

 

 

I don't think losing Gonzalez had much of an effect. His numbers were good but the sample size was very small. It's very unlikely that he would have finished the year with an OPS of .783. Izturis, Ransom, Bianchi, and Segura and Maysonet have combined for 12 HR and 60 RBI most of which was from the SS position. That's pretty good production.

 

I think Aoki has had the biggest impact on this offense. The guy's been terrific. He plays winning baseball. I'd rank his acquisition one of the best moves Melvin ever made. The irony is that if Gamel doesn't get hurt, we might not see what he has. In fact, I'd be tempted to extend him a few more years. The production from the catcher position has been outstanding too.

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Brewers are 4th in baseball in wOBA and 4th in wRC+. They are 3rd in runs. They are about average in BsR which is supposed to measure baserunning. While we are aggressive it isn't really helping or hurting us much statistically. You would have to look a lot deeper to know if it is helping or hurting situationally.

 

Not 100% but I thought the BsR was only runs from baserunning and taking extra bases, going 1st to 3rd, scoring from 1 on a double etc. I dont think SBs are counted there, just to be clear. If you count base stealing in baserunning the Brewers would at least be well above average.

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It's hard to quantify it, but all the movement on the bases distracts the opposing pitcher and catcher. Under Macha, the opponents knew that the Brewers weren't going to run. Now the base stealing is constant, it's at the top and bottom of the order, and they have continued to get better at avoiding stupid baserunning mistakes. For whatever reason, opponents are not intentionally walking Braun much this year, so they have been stealing when he bats as well.

 

I agree that Aoki is a huge part of the offense, it is too bad he is 30 years old already. The resurgence of Rickie Weeks in the #2 spot is equally as important. And they are getting RBIs from the 1-2 spots as well when the bottom of the order gets on. Even Segura gets on base more than Yuni did and Segura is 5/5 in stolen bases.

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Brewers are 4th in baseball in wOBA and 4th in wRC+. They are 3rd in runs. They are about average in BsR which is supposed to measure baserunning. While we are aggressive it isn't really helping or hurting us much statistically. You would have to look a lot deeper to know if it is helping or hurting situationally.

 

Not 100% but I thought the BsR was only runs from baserunning and taking extra bases, going 1st to 3rd, scoring from 1 on a double etc. I dont think SBs are counted there, just to be clear. If you count base stealing in baserunning the Brewers would at least be well above average.

 

I don't have the time to look it up right now, but I'm certain that (at least last year) BSR did not factor in stolen bases. It's purely a "taking the extra base" stat. Unless they've changed it.

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There is no doubt in my mind that had Hart stayed in RF this year, Aoki would have rotted on the bench, never allowing us to see what we had...

 

Or if Narveson and Marcum hadn't gotten hurt, Estrada would have spent the year in the pen and Fiers would be getting mop up innings after spending all of the year at Nashville and if Grienke hadn't been traded and Wolf finally released, we'd have no idea that both Rogers and Peralta would have inside tracks to rotation spots in 2013. Or if Mrs. Lucroy hadn't dropped something under the bed in a hotel, Maldonado would have honed his craft at Nashville in hopes he'd get a look in spring for a backup job. Or if the D-Backs didn't think highly enough of Cody Ransom to claim him back, Jeff Bianchi would not have an inside track on at worst a utility job for next year. Finally if the bullpen implosion wouldn't have been so pervasive, perhaps Brandon Kintzler would have just been forgotten about and Jim Henderson would have just been that veteran minor league reliever who had a nice season. The list goes on and on doesn't it?

 

Playoffs or no, 2012 will go down as the year the Brewers were exposed as underestimating their own talent and by the same token overestimating some of the veteran talent that was here.

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I don't think losing Gonzalez had much of an effect. His numbers were good but the sample size was very small. It's very unlikely that he would have finished the year with an OPS of .783. Izturis, Ransom, Bianchi, and Segura and Maysonet have combined for 12 HR and 60 RBI most of which was from the SS position. That's pretty good production.

 

The Brewers SS are 13 out of 16 NL teams in OPS. They have a total of 61 RBIs but 15 of those were Gonzalez. So those guys may have combined for 60 but only 46 when playing SS. Losing Gonzalez hurt quite a bit

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I don't think losing Gonzalez had much of an effect. His numbers were good but the sample size was very small. It's very unlikely that he would have finished the year with an OPS of .783. Izturis, Ransom, Bianchi, and Segura and Maysonet have combined for 12 HR and 60 RBI most of which was from the SS position. That's pretty good production.

 

The Brewers SS are 13 out of 16 NL teams in OPS. They have a total of 61 RBIs but 15 of those were Gonzalez. So those guys may have combined for 60 but only 46 when playing SS. Losing Gonzalez hurt quite a bit

 

But they also found out that Bianchi can play a little and it focused them on getting a SS of the present and future in the Greinke deal, which were both positives.

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It's hard to quantify it, but all the movement on the bases distracts the opposing pitcher and catcher. Under Macha, the opponents knew that the Brewers weren't going to run. Now the base stealing is constant, it's at the top and bottom of the order, and they have continued to get better at avoiding stupid baserunning mistakes.

.

 

I think that once a guy reaches the majors he doesn't get rattled too much when guys start running.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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Playoffs or no, 2012 will go down as the year the Brewers were exposed as underestimating their own talent and by the same token overestimating some of the veteran talent that was here.

 

That is a bit of a stretch. Guys get hurt and other guys get their chance every year on every team. This isn't something unique to the Brewers. Half of the players you listed probably aren't good enough to be in the majors full time next year anyway, we still don't know which ones will stick.

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But they also found out that Bianchi can play a little and it focused them on getting a SS of the present and future in the Greinke deal, which were both positives.

I believe hey would have focused on a SS regardless of the injury to Gonzalez since we didn't have any long term guys at that position. I doubt they would have brought Segura up as quick though.

 

Under Macha, the opponents knew that the Brewers weren't going to run.

Yeah Macha definitely was to restrictive on the running game. I think our manager handles the running game well if you ignore the bunting and contact plays.

 

With our speed and power we should give up as few outs as possible since we have such a good chance to score at any time.

Fan is short for fanatic.

I blame Wang.

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There is no doubt in my mind that had Hart stayed in RF this year, Aoki would have rotted on the bench, never allowing us to see what we had...

 

Or if Narveson and Marcum hadn't gotten hurt, Estrada would have spent the year in the pen and Fiers would be getting mop up innings after spending all of the year at Nashville and if Grienke hadn't been traded and Wolf finally released, we'd have no idea that both Rogers and Peralta would have inside tracks to rotation spots in 2013. Or if Mrs. Lucroy hadn't dropped something under the bed in a hotel, Maldonado would have honed his craft at Nashville in hopes he'd get a look in spring for a backup job. Or if the D-Backs didn't think highly enough of Cody Ransom to claim him back, Jeff Bianchi would not have an inside track on at worst a utility job for next year. Finally if the bullpen implosion wouldn't have been so pervasive, perhaps Brandon Kintzler would have just been forgotten about and Jim Henderson would have just been that veteran minor league reliever who had a nice season. The list goes on and on doesn't it?

 

Playoffs or no, 2012 will go down as the year the Brewers were exposed as underestimating their own talent and by the same token overestimating some of the veteran talent that was here.

Wait a minute. If Lucroy hadn't gotten hurt, Maldonado might not have gotten an opportunity; but Lucroy is better than Maldonado. If Greinke hadn't gotten traded, Fiers or Rogers might not have gotten an opportunity; but Greinke is better than Fiers and Rogers. If Marcum hadn't gotten hurt, then Estrada might not have gotten an opportunity; but Marcum is better than Estrada. Gonzalez is probably better right now than either Segura or Bianchi, although they're certainly the future and he isn't. Kintzler and Henderson haven't proved much, and in any event relief pitching is notoriously hard to gauge.

 

I agree with you about Wolf, and Narveson would have had to take a big step forward to exceed what the replacement SPs have done. But in general, I think your harsh judgment about the organization's talent evaluation has little basis in fact. I do think you're right to emphasize how much talent we had on hand just beneath the surface. I think that's a great credit to the organization. They also look smart for turning to that on-hand talent when the holes opened up, although I bet they wouldn't have done that if they thought in June and July that the team could contend.

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I do think you're right to emphasize how much talent we had on hand just beneath the surface.

 

Isn't that what Melvin said last season after we traded half our top prospects for Greinke? So many outsiders just looked at what we lost and thought there was no way we could have much left. Yet here we are winning with those leftovers.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.
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There is no doubt in my mind that had Hart stayed in RF this year, Aoki would have rotted on the bench, never allowing us to see what we had...

I think Aoki would have taken more time from Gomez in CF. After Gamel got hurt, they used Ishikawa at 1B until giving Hart a shot. Only then did Aoki move over to RF. By then he was already taking the majority of starts in CF.

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There is no doubt in my mind that had Hart stayed in RF this year, Aoki would have rotted on the bench, never allowing us to see what we had...

I think Aoki would have taken more time from Gomez in CF. After Gamel got hurt, they used Ishikawa at 1B until giving Hart a shot. Only then did Aoki move over to RF. By then he was already taking the majority of starts in CF.

 

And would of greatly hurt our team defensively, and wouldn't of allowed Gomez to shine like he has recently.

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say what you want about giving away free outs, but the safety/suicide squeezes have worked at a fairly high rate. Trading an out for a run isn't always a good thing, but in many cases it can be a valuable strategy. Plus, we also seemed to have terrible success with the contact play resulting in runners being thrown out at home. I don't like all bunts, but I also don't criticize them. Many resulted in productive outs, and if they had been run-scoring groundouts to 2nd people would be praising the effective situational hitting. Sometimes with 2 men out they not only scored runs, but also avoided double plays thanks to the bunts. It's a tool to have. You can't over-rely on them, but the Rays have sure been very productive over the years and they were the first team I ever heard talking about safety squeezes
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the safety/suicide squeezes have worked at a fairly high rate

 

In the squeeze topic, we determined that we don't have the raw data handy to determine the success rate, which is why it was suggested that we have a topic that records each success and failure next year. The statheads have told us that "fairly high" isn't good enough, though. The rate needs to be extremely high.

 

One thing we do know is that most of the outs that end up being called productive aren't productive at all. A team is almost always worse off than it was before the out.

 

I concur that bunting and base stealing are tools to have in the arsenal. The Brewers are stealing at an 80% rate, which puts them in the black. As implied directly above, stealing and bunting shouldn't be overly relied upon. But they do have their time and place. Attempting to steal against a team like the Pirates, who have trouble throwing out runners, would seem to be a good idea.

That’s the only thing Chicago’s good for: to tell people where Wisconsin is.

[align=right]-- Sigmund Snopek[/align]

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I concur that bunting and base stealing are tools to have in the arsenal. The Brewers are stealing at an 80% rate, which puts them in the black. As implied directly above, stealing and bunting shouldn't be overly relied upon. But they do have their time and place. Attempting to steal against a team like the Pirates, who have trouble throwing out runners, would seem to be a good idea.

 

How do you get to the point of being able to use the running game against Pittsburgh unless you have been doing it enough to be good at it? It's nice to have tools in the arsenal but rusty tools don't work as well. Picking the times to use it is key IMHO. Given the rate at which they succeed it appears the Brewers have figured that out.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.
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