2022 Trade Market

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

No, Hiura will not get more than what Sanchez got in Arbitration.  I just don't see Hiura getting more than $2m in Arb-1 and he will more than likely settle with whatever the team offers him for Arb-1.  That is still a valuable amount and something the Nationals would definitely have an interest in.  

I am not sure how much you think Hiura is going to get but it will be sub $5m and more than likely will be sub $3m.  So something around estimated arbitrations from 2022 $1.7mm (Cavan Biggio) and $2.8mm (Ramon Laureano).  Which is about what you have for the Nationals spending.  So I don't see how Hiura's cost is out of line with what the Nationals have spent recently.  

The point is but for two massive contracts for Strasburg and Corbin the Nationals are a small market team with nearly 40% of their roster filled with the cheapest contracts around. It’s not likely they’re going to throw money around on Hiura, someone who hasn't even proven himself a major league regular, when they can get a veteran off the junk pile on a NRI to give the same production. He just doesn’t make any sense. 
 

If this was July 2020 I’d be with you,  but all the seasons since 2019 count unfortunately. 

[nate82]

5 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

The point is but for two massive contracts for Strasburg and Corbin the Nationals are a small market team with nearly 40% of their roster filled with the cheapest contracts around. It’s not likely they’re going to throw money around on Hiura, someone who hasn't even proven himself a major league regular, when they can get a veteran off the junk pile on a NRI to give the same production. He just doesn’t make any sense. 
 

If this was July 2020 I’d be with you,  but all the seasons since 2019 count unfortunately. 

All things being equal you go with the younger talent which Hiura would be than a vet since Hiura's Arb-1 is going to be very close to a veteran minimum contract.  You go with the younger talent as they are more likely to improve on what they have been than the veteran player.  If they are going to make the same amount or about the same amount then you take the younger player.  

Bell is not going to cost all that much and adding in Hiura makes a lot of sense for the Brewers and Nationals.  Something like Hiura and Gray makes a ton of sense for the Nationals and is really close to the value that Bell has.  

[jay87shot]

What about a guy like Jake Cave? He would be an upgrade over Davis and maybe even Taylor. He is playing very well in AAA and won't cost much. He would make a nice platoon option, I think would be a slightly better version of Ben Gamel.

 

[jay87shot]

How about something like Michael Pineda and Wily Peralta from Detriot for say Alec Bettinger and a younger guy like Hendry Mendez.

We get a solid starter and a good reliever who don't have much value in Detriot on expiring deals. We don't give up much other than a lotto ticket prospect.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

All things being equal you go with the younger talent which Hiura would be than a vet since Hiura's Arb-1 is going to be very close to a veteran minimum contract.  You go with the younger talent as they are more likely to improve on what they have been than the veteran player.  If they are going to make the same amount or about the same amount then you take the younger player.  

Bell is not going to cost all that much and adding in Hiura makes a lot of sense for the Brewers and Nationals.  Something like Hiura and Gray makes a ton of sense for the Nationals and is really close to the value that Bell has.  

I don’t know where your info comes from “ Bell is not going to cost all that much “ but Josh Bell is a Top 10 hitter in the NL and certainly will be dealt. Of course he won’t bring the return a rental hitter would have  20 years ago but do you really think it’s going to buyer’s market for that type of player? I disagree, every contender will have varying degrees of interest. 

As for Hiura who knows? However, it makes zero sense for a rebuilding club to actually give something up for a player when  the same or similar  production can be had on the free-agent market for less cost and/or a rock bottom price

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

What about a guy like Jake Cave? He would be an upgrade over Davis and maybe even Taylor. He is playing very well in AAA and won't cost much. He would make a nice platoon option, I think would be a slightly better version of Ben Gamel.

 

Jake Cave is the definition of “just a guy”. He has been unable to stay with the major league club despite the Twins getting poor production from their corner outfielders. Moreover with multiple years of control left, Plus with their own playoff aspirations, Minnesota isn’t likely to just dump him, so it’s probably not a good match.

[nate82]

26 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I don’t know where your info comes from “ Bell is not going to cost all that much “ but Josh Bell is a Top 10 hitter in the NL and certainly will be dealt. Of course he won’t bring the return a rental hitter would have  20 years ago but do you really think it’s going to buyer’s market for that type of player? I disagree, every contender will have varying degrees of interest. 

As for Hiura who knows? However, it makes zero sense for a rebuilding club to actually give something up for a player when  the same or similar  production can be had on the free-agent market for less cost and/or a rock bottom price

You can cross the Yankees off the list for Bell along with the Red Sox and Dodgers.  The Yankees are not willing to pay any more into the luxury tax and would require the Nationals to either take back Gallo or Hicks along with a prospect or two.  The Red Sox are set at 1B and DH so Bell doesn't fit there and the same with the Dodgers.  That leaves the Giants who are already set at 1B.  The Giants need an upgrade at C.  The Cardinals don't really need a 1B or a DH so they are out also.  The Mets also don't need a 1B or DH type.  The Braves don't need a 1B or DH either the same with the Phillies and Astros.  That leaves the Guardians, Rays, Rangers and Mariners.  I am not sure there is a huge market for Bell as you seem to think there is.  Mancini is also an option at 1B and DH and he isn't all that bad either.  

So a teams 15-20 ranked prospect and a throw in player sounds about right for Bell.  

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, nate82 said:

You can cross the Yankees off the list for Bell along with the Red Sox and Dodgers.  The Yankees are not willing to pay any more into the luxury tax and would require the Nationals to either take back Gallo or Hicks along with a prospect or two.  The Red Sox are set at 1B and DH so Bell doesn't fit there and the same with the Dodgers.  That leaves the Giants who are already set at 1B.  The Giants need an upgrade at C.  The Cardinals don't really need a 1B or a DH so they are out also.  The Mets also don't need a 1B or DH type.  The Braves don't need a 1B or DH either the same with the Phillies and Astros.  That leaves the Guardians, Rays, Rangers and Mariners.  I am not sure there is a huge market for Bell as you seem to think there is.  Mancini is also an option at 1B and DH and he isn't all that bad either.  

So a teams 15-20 ranked prospect and a throw in player sounds about right for Bell.  

While you continue to denigrate Bell, he’s a 3.3 WAR player through 81 games. Or put another way, through the first half of the season he’s a legit MVP candidate; AND he will be traded in the next four weeks.

If you truly believe there is a contes big team that can find at bats for MVP level offensive production, then you don’t follow the league all that closely.

I have no idea what the return to Washington would be for a player like Bell, but it will be a seller’s market if he keeps up his level of production.

[Robocaller]

8 hours ago, jay87shot said:

What about a guy like Jake Cave? He would be an upgrade over Davis and maybe even Taylor. He is playing very well in AAA and won't cost much. He would make a nice platoon option, I think would be a slightly better version of Ben Gamel.

 

He's not very good. He's not doing that much better than Dahl, and we have him under contract at Nashville.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

6 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

While you continue to denigrate Bell, he’s a 3.3 WAR player through 81 games. Or put another way, through the first half of the season he’s a legit MVP candidate; AND he will be traded in the next four weeks.

If you truly believe there is a contes big team that can find at bats for MVP level offensive production, then you don’t follow the league all that closely.

I have no idea what the return to Washington would be for a player like Bell, but it will be a seller’s market if he keeps up his level of production.

I don't know about that. I think you'll be surprised when Bell is ultimately traded with how little actually comes back to the Nats. While there is certainly value there, it is mitigated by the fact that he's rental bat that provides no defensive value. 

[Jopal78]

15 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I don't know about that. I think you'll be surprised when Bell is ultimately traded with how little actually comes back to the Nats. While there is certainly value there, it is mitigated by the fact that he's rental bat that provides no defensive value. 

Interesting question, yes he’s a rental and yes rentals don’t bring the return they did 10+ years ago. BUT Bell’s OPS so far tops any one on the Dodgers, Brewers, Mets, Braves. He’s only behind Judge on the Yankees, Machado on the Padres and Goldschmidt. That is a major offensive player to be able to add, and I wrote earlier every contending team will have some degree of interest.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1 minute ago, Jopal78 said:

Interesting question, yes he’s a rental and yes rentals don’t bring the return they did 10+ years ago. BUT Bell’s OPS so far tops any one on the Dodgers, Brewers, Mets, Braves. He’s only behind Judge on the Yankees, Machado on the Padres and Goldschmidt. That is a major offensive player to be able to add, and I wrote earlier every contending team will have some degree of interest.

It will certainly be an interesting case study. Regardless, I get the feeling that when he is ultimately dealt, my first reaction when seeing the return is going to be "that's it?"

[JCREW]

3 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Interesting question, yes he’s a rental and yes rentals don’t bring the return they did 10+ years ago. BUT Bell’s OPS so far tops any one on the Dodgers, Brewers, Mets, Braves. He’s only behind Judge on the Yankees, Machado on the Padres and Goldschmidt. That is a major offensive player to be able to add, and I wrote earlier every contending team will have some degree of interest.

Bell is having a career year. His career wRC+ is 118. That is average offensive output for a 1B. A lot of his value depends on how GMs are going to view his career in comparison to this year. I'd lean toward relying on the career numbers, and value him lower. 

Mancini has very similar things going on with his current year vs. his career norms. 

The same is true (but even more extreme) with Michael A. Taylor over in KC. I would love to add a 115 wRC+ bat and above average defense in CF, but his career average puts him down in Tyrone Taylor territory. 

All that WOULD put me in the camp of lower prospect cost for trades, however with the expanded playoff field, I fear a bidding war.

[Robocaller]

Anyone subscribe to the Athletic?  They had an article listing prospects the Brewers might trade. Wondered if there were any surprised.

[Outlander]

2 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Anyone subscribe to the Athletic?  They had an article listing prospects the Brewers might trade. Wondered if there were any surprised.

No real surprises except maybe Turang not being talked about at all by the scouts. Chourio, Wiemer, Frelick the most appealing but Brewers may not want to move. Quero(or other catching depth like Feliciano/Reetz/Sibrian), Mendez, Gray mentioned as possible targets by scouts. Veteran players similar to Hummel last year like Mathias, Wes Wilson or even Hiura.

[Brewcrew82]

Make everyone in this farm system available in the right deal except for Jackson Chourio. And don't trade both Frelick AND Wiemer. Go get any one or more of Bell, Benintendi, Laureano, Happ, D. Peralta, M. Perez, C. Kuhl, Quintana, J. Lopez, Bednar, M. Fulmer. 

[nate82]

My predictions for the deadline:

Benintendi - Yankees

Mancini - Brewers

Bell - Astros

Montas - Cardinals 

Contreras - Giants 

Castillo - Dodgers

Cruz - Blue Jays

Mahle - Mets

Robertson - Phillies

 

 

 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

My predictions for the deadline:

Benintendi - Yankees

Mancini - Brewers

Bell - Astros

Montas - Cardinals 

Contreras - Giants 

Castillo - Dodgers

Cruz - Blue Jays

Mahle - Mets

Robertson - Phillies

 

 

 

Mancini would basically be like Escobar last year. Hoping for just a little more than that, but we'll see. At least he wouldn't cost us a Frelick or Wiemer. If the Pirates are willing to deal him in the division, I could see us making a run at Reynolds, too. But if they ask for Chourio, then the deal would be off for me. 

[nate82]

11 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Mancini would basically be like Escobar last year. Hoping for just a little more than that, but we'll see. At least he wouldn't cost us a Frelick or Wiemer. If the Pirates are willing to deal him in the division, I could see us making a run at Reynolds, too. But if they ask for Chourio, then the deal would be off for me. 

Mancini is someone the Brewers need in their lineup as he isn’t an all or nothing hitter.  He can also platoon with McCutchen against RHP as Mancini doesn’t really have severe splits and hits RHP about as well as he hits LHP.

Ideally Bell would be the best fit and should cost about the same as Mancini in a trade.  You could put Mancini in LF in an emergency while Bell is strictly a 1B/DH type.  I think the Brewers will prefer Mancini over Bell.  I think the Brewers add a bullpen piece and a backup OF just not sure yet on who.

[LouisEly]

Highly doubt that Mancini will be a Brewer.  He's a 1B/DH, and not only are the Brewers covered there with Tellez and Hiura (both of whom have a higher OPS than Mancini at this point in the season), but the Brewers also like to use the DH as a way to give players a pseudo-off day (especially Yelich and McCutcheon). 

The Brewers need OF (specifically CF) and a swingman/long reliever/spot starter.

[Brewcrew82]

39 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Highly doubt that Mancini will be a Brewer.  He's a 1B/DH, and not only are the Brewers covered there with Tellez and Hiura (both of whom have a higher OPS than Mancini at this point in the season), but the Brewers also like to use the DH as a way to give players a pseudo-off day (especially Yelich and McCutcheon). 

The Brewers need OF (specifically CF) and a swingman/long reliever/spot starter.

I really want Laureano or Reynolds, so long as they don't cost Chourio. I'd also be content with a guy like Michael Taylor, too. But CF is a glaring need right now, particularly with Taylor out. Even then, I think Taylor excels more in that 4th outfielder role. 

[AJOHNSON104]

I want an elite CF player as soon as possible. The reality is there doesn't appear to be anyone who fits that profile except maybe Reynolds, which will cost a ton. I think the overall cost on anyone who moves the needle much (at any position) will be high, as it appears every competitive team has similar needs and the available players is a small list right now. It could change, but true difference makers seem harder to find right now. Don't be surprised if we reach out for Benintendi and end up with Merrifield or Taylor.      

[nate82]

Jim Bowden has the Brewers trading for Bell and giving up Black.  Bowden’s returns are usually higher than what it would take to get a player.

Black depending on what list you are looking at is either just in the top 10 or just out of the top 10 similar to Gray.  So my Hiura and Gray would actually be worth more than Bowden’s trade proposal.  

[Outlander]

It is very rare to see Gray in the top 10, I don't know a single one that does. Black on the other hand is top 10 everywhere.

[wntrtxn21]

21 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I really want Laureano or Reynolds, so long as they don't cost Chourio. I'd also be content with a guy like Michael Taylor, too. But CF is a glaring need right now, particularly with Taylor out. Even then, I think Taylor excels more in that 4th outfielder role. 

I don't understand the fascination with Laureano. He's hitting .246/.341/6 HRs /18 RBIs/ a negative dWAR.  I don't believe he's an upgrade over Tyrone Taylor. He's not going to make a difference.  I think you're right about Michael Taylor, but he'll be 32 next year with a cost of $4.5M and a FA in 2024. He would be a considerable upgrade in CF if they could get him dirt cheap. Reynolds, I think, is going to be way out of reach for the Crew. His asking price would start with Chourio and go up from there.