Three-way trade with A's, Braves; Brewers get William Contreras

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, jakedood said:

I have to disagree with the last bit

I think to demonstrate the Brewers as a force, they'll need Winker to be really performing at a very high level again, and to Keep Taylor but move on Winker would seem very strange.

Also seems very optimistic to suggest that Taylor/Weimer outperform Winker to that extent, Yelich finds a way to get a little further out in front of him to utilise his exit velos, and two ROY candidates all together, just a lot of things needing to go right there to trade a DH with a potential to hit at 850-950 OPS

I actually think Mitchell may struggle due to the "LA" swing which rarely reaches and performs well at the majors, and Weimer possibly has the highest ceiling (Bar Chourio)

Just cant see it, though even having contreras DH for LH starters and Winker for RH starters is such an asset

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

This is the kind of trade I would be looking for, for either Burnes/Woodruff.  If a trade of this magnitude should ever present itself Arnold has to pull the trigger.  The A's gave up an all star but in return received a package of 4 controllable mlb contributors.  Arnold can not say certain players are untradeable.  You never know when opportunities will present themselves.

[brewcrewdue80]

Looks like the one comment negatively on Contreras defense is he had a 14% caught stealing last season.  I'm thinking the A's looked at Ruiz taking advantage on SBs and the Braves looked at Contreras being taken advantage of SBs with the larger bases. 

That said, Milw is filled with high k pitchers. Reduces the opportunities for stolen bases.  William is also young and may improve his technique and pop times to be more successful or at least consistent vs worsening.

In the end, just think with Quero's future, that the Brewers are trotting out great catchers for the next 7? Maybe + seasons. That's a long time to get the next future Catcher in the system.

[homer]

6 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I went to an A's site where a guy was denigrating Ruiz's batted ball stats. Bunts kinda tank batted ball stats, and what, Ruiz did it more than once a week?

This sent me down a shallow rabbit hole.

Anyone know if they track bunt attempts for a hit as opposed to sacrifice? I only spent a few min on it but thought it'd be pretty easy to find.

[TheAnalytics]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

They also struggle ranking relievers IMO. Hader with 1 1/2 years of club control remaining only worth 15.5? 

The site is a fun thing to look at, but people treat it as an "end all, be all" when it comes to player valuations, and it has proven to be far from that.

You have to think of it as “back of napkin”accounting, which is nice to have on any trade or contract spanning the entirety of the player population. As long as you know the assumptions going in and treat it as a quick and dirty estimate, the tool is awesome. 
 

For example, Hader @ $15m = ~2.5 WAR / season * 1.5 seasons * $10m / WAR - ~$21m in salary. All that seems more or less reasonable, even if you want to quibble with the win projection, market rate for wins, or the details of his arbitration case. 

Edited December 13, 2022 by TheAnalytics
Miscalculation

[GAME05]

Regardless Ruiz is going to be a super-fun player to keep an eye on next year. Hitting it to the outfield is boring, anyway!

I'm not as down on it from the As perspective. They're blowing it up and clearly have traits they're intentionally overvaluing. If Ruiz is the perfect embodiment of those traits, so what if you overpay from a conventional standpoint? If you thought the SB was the next big undervalued thing, how much more would Ruiz' value increase? 

[Jake McKibbin]

17 minutes ago, homer said:

This sent me down a shallow rabbit hole.

Anyone know if they track bunt attempts for a hit as opposed to sacrifice? I only spent a few min on it but thought it'd be pretty easy to find.

I mean, even if he bunts 10% of the time, that'll be an incredibly low hard hit rate for Triple A, never mind the Majors

 

Though Fangraphs has his projected ISO at .146 which isnt too bad... He's quick enough that a 700 OPS is probably an effective 780 or so with his base stealing, though again you'll find stronger arms at MLB level than in the minors, and I think he got caught a few times in AFL too (he had a really poor campaign there)

 

In 2022 in his limited time in the majors - Average EV was 73 mph, Max EV was 100.2. 3.6% Barrel rate, 10.7% Hard hit rate, and heavy pull hitter (makes sense if trying to beat out the SS/3B throw) - He was goot at making contact with pitches outside the zone (70+%) but still swung at 43% of those outside

 

I think I could see how if he had a stronger bat tool or developed he could be a fun player, but he's definitely risky, and tbh i think if the A's had contreras DHing and traded him next year or at the deadline for someone needing a bat, they'd have a lot more. But time tells doesnt it

[Jopal78]

52 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

An underrated part of the Brewers offseason so far is Matt Arnold adding depth to the Brewers bullpen. Adding guys like Junk, Peguero, Seminaris, Guerra, Varland, Payamps & Yeager, plus young prospects like Uribe & Cam Robinson. Our bullpen could be drastically different in 2023

If you believe that Frelick & Turang can put up similar WAR to Renfroe & Wong then we added nearly all of that depth without diminishing the rest of the roster. 

I hope they still add some quality instead of quantity in the bullpen, as some of these guys have question marks. 

Payamps is out of options and has now been with 5 different organizations since over the last two years, and was probably a DFA candidate for Oakland anyways. Same deal with Yeager, he was left unprotected by the Braves in the Rule 5 draft last week and went unclaimed. Javy Guerra is also out of options and with his 3rd organization of 2022. 

Certainly, no harm done in trying to find lightning in a bottle, but I do hope they still add some pitchers with more proven track records. 

 

 

[monty57]

1 hour ago, MVP2110 said:

An underrated part of the Brewers offseason so far is Matt Arnold adding depth to the Brewers bullpen. Adding guys like Junk, Peguero, Seminaris, Guerra, Varland, Payamps & Yeager, plus young prospects like Uribe & Cam Robinson. Our bullpen could be drastically different in 2023

If you believe that Frelick & Turang can put up similar WAR to Renfroe & Wong then we added nearly all of that depth without diminishing the rest of the roster. 

I think the question is whether Frelick, Turang, and Winker can put up similar WAR to Renfroe, Wong, and McCutchen.

[homer]

6 minutes ago, jakedood said:

I mean, even if he bunts 10% of the time, that'll be an incredibly low hard hit rate for Triple A, never mind the Majors

 

Though Fangraphs has his projected ISO at .146 which isnt too bad... He's quick enough that a 700 OPS is probably an effective 780 or so with his base stealing, though again you'll find stronger arms at MLB level than in the minors, and I think he got caught a few times in AFL too (he had a really poor campaign there)

 

In 2022 in his limited time in the majors - Average EV was 73 mph, Max EV was 100.2. 3.6% Barrel rate, 10.7% Hard hit rate, and heavy pull hitter (makes sense if trying to beat out the SS/3B throw) - He was goot at making contact with pitches outside the zone (70+%) but still swung at 43% of those outside

 

I think I could see how if he had a stronger bat tool or developed he could be a fun player, but he's definitely risky, and tbh i think if the A's had contreras DHing and traded him next year or at the deadline for someone needing a bat, they'd have a lot more. But time tells doesnt it

Agreed. I was just trying to see exactly how often he did bunt. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

 

18 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Re. Ruiz and why I'm absolutely thrilled with this deal, other than getting Contreras in return. 

 

If SLG means slugging percentage, the info in that tweet is not accurate.  Also, hard hit rate for guys who bunt for base hits (a rarity in today's game) should not be viewed as a key stat.  Speed turns a ton of poorly hit baseballs into base hits - and outlawing a shift only amplifies that.  Ruiz also did hit 16 HR last year in the minors, while Frelick hit 11.

With regard to Ruiz, worst case scenario for him barring injuries that sap him of his game-altering speed is probably Billy Hamilton - a guy who didn't perform nearly as well as Ruiz did offensively at upper levels of the minor leagues who went on to have a ~10 year MLB career based solely on his speed.  Like it or not, exchanging prospects for any player who winds up having a 10 year MLB career is probably a win for the team acquiring that player.  Ruiz profiles as a better offensive player than Hamilton at the MLB level, and he will be an absolute terror stealing bases if he maintains an OBP even over 0.300.

The Brewers made out very well in this trade because they filled a position of need with a young and talented catcher at the MLB level along with pitching depth, AND while they gave up young MLB-ready talent in return it was from a position they have depth at in terms of MLB-ready outfield prospects.

 

[MVP2110]

14 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I hope they still add some quality instead of quantity in the bullpen, as some of these guys have question marks. 

Payamps is out of options and has now been with 5 different organizations since over the last two years, and was probably a DFA candidate for Oakland anyways. Same deal with Yeager, he was left unprotected by the Braves in the Rule 5 draft last week and went unclaimed. Javy Guerra is also out of options and with his 3rd organization of 2022. 

Certainly, no harm done in trying to find lightning in a bottle, but I do hope they still add some pitchers with more proven track records. 

 

 

And it is certainly possible they will. Right now Devin is the closer and some combo of Bush/Strezlecki/Guerra are likely your main set up guys. But even just having to dip into the minors for guys it seems Arnold completely overhauled the guys on "the shuttle"

[Jake McKibbin]

13 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

 

If SLG means slugging percentage, the info in that tweet is not accurate.  Also, hard hit rate for guys who bunt for base hits (a rarity in today's game) should not be viewed as a key stat.  Speed turns a ton of poorly hit baseballs into base hits - and outlawing a shift only amplifies that.  Ruiz also did hit 16 HR last year in the minors, while Frelick hit 11.

With regard to Ruiz, worst case scenario for him barring injuries that sap him of his game-altering speed is probably Billy Hamilton - a guy who didn't perform nearly as well as Ruiz did offensively at upper levels of the minor leagues who went on to have a ~10 year MLB career based solely on his speed.  Like it or not, exchanging prospects for any player who winds up having a 10 year MLB career is probably a win for the team acquiring that player.  Ruiz profiles as a better offensive player than Hamilton at the MLB level, and he will be an absolute terror stealing bases if he maintains an OBP even over 0.300.

The Brewers made out very well in this trade because they filled a position of need with a young and talented catcher at the MLB level along with pitching depth, AND while they gave up young MLB-ready talent in return it was from a position they have depth at in terms of MLB-ready outfield prospects.

 

I think he meant ISO, though again if someone is that fast ISO is less relevant, just get him on base somehow. His starting position can be slightly further from 1st base, and with PO rules, he could be a very good pickup. You wonder if infields in will help detract from his value at all, and ofc SS arms will be much better but you can see upside

Apparently Baseball prospectus did an article (I cant access it) that by mid June, he had attempted 31 bunts. Thats a lot, though would lal these be included as batted balls (does attempted bunts include ones that go foul?)

If so, then his HH rate jumps by 50%, again a question of can he make contact at MLB level, and obviously as a CF he may be above average defensively and offensively. 

 

Good points, I think I've undervalued him, though as you said, its a good trade for the Brewers regardless

[Pugger]

19 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

Sounds like it really is just Ruiz, folks.

?

[JohnBriggs12]

One think seems certain after this deal.  No way they keep both Brosseau and Hiura barring injury or another trade.  Contreras figures to DH on most days he's not catching, and that means a third catcher likely sticks.  My guess is they'll rotate Feliciano and Henry for that role.

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Oh I don't deny that by all appearances, the Brewers did very well here. I just don't think its the valuation curb-stomping that the BTV site makes it out to be. 

It’s pretty lopsided for us even if you want to give Ruiz a more generous grade. Maybe $15mil…maybe? I don’t think Contreras having similar trade value to Adames is outlandish (both sit near $40mil), which is where they place him. Contreras was always a highly regarded hitter and always hit in the minors. I think the chance his breakout is real (not saying he will be as good as 2022) is a fairly safe bet.

But it’s all subjective and teams will value these guys wildly different. Some people here love Adames and want to hand him $25mil a year. I’d rather ship him out on a bus and not even really consider any extension. The differences between fans goes on in MLB front offices in a much similar manner.
 

At face value this is a pretty big win for the Brewers. About as big of one as you are going to see in a trade at face value. The future may tell a different story, who knows.

[owbc]

Who cares how hard you hit the ball when you have a .447 OBP and steal 85 bases? With the limited pickoff moves starting this year in MLB, Ruiz is going to be able to steal a ton of bases. I'm obviously a huge fan of the trade like everyone else, but Ruiz is going to be fun to watch at the MLB level. It's pretty clear what the A's were looking for. 

One question though -- how did this dude get hit by a pitch 27 times in one season? He must have been leaning into everything inside. He's clearly about as close to an OBP specialist as you can get.

 

 

[wntrtxn21]

16 minutes ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

One think seems certain after this deal.  No way they keep both Brosseau and Hiura barring injury or another trade.  Contreras figures to DH on most days he's not catching, and that means a third catcher likely sticks.  My guess is they'll rotate Feliciano and Henry for that role.

I think it's premature to think Contreras DHs on days he's not catching.  IF Winker works out, he'll be the primary DH unless a lefty is throwing.  CC likes to give his primary catcher days off. I just don't see him wasting a spot on the bench for a third catcher.  If Contreras was DHing and needed to catch because of injury, CC could then just pinch hit when the pitcher.'s spot comes up. Everything remains to be seen, but by a baseball miracle, the Crew now has Contreras. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

One question though -- how did this dude get hit by a pitch 27 times in one season?

For a right handed batter, the toughest pitch to try and bunt for a base hit is inside velocity - they are trying to bunt the ball out in front of the plate and  either angle it down the line or push between 1st and 2nd, while starting out running out of the box towards 1st.  An inside fastball limits their ability to get a good angle to bunt towards 3rd and get extension to push it to the right side, and impedes them from getting a good start out of the RH batter's box.  The high HBP rate could be as simple as a basic scouting report attempted to be executed by minor league pitchers with less than stellar command and have nothing to do with Ruiz crowding the plate or looking to lean into pitches to get on base.

[SRB]

33 minutes ago, owbc said:

Who cares how hard you hit the ball when you have a .447 OBP and steal 85 bases? With the limited pickoff moves starting this year in MLB, Ruiz is going to be able to steal a ton of bases. I'm obviously a huge fan of the trade like everyone else, but Ruiz is going to be fun to watch at the MLB level. It's pretty clear what the A's were looking for. 

One question though -- how did this dude get hit by a pitch 27 times in one season? He must have been leaning into everything inside. He's clearly about as close to an OBP specialist as you can get.

 

 

In 2021 he had a .328 OBP in AA, so I think it is quite optimistic to think he will be an on-base machine in the major leagues. I hope he tears it up though, why not.

I will say that he would be a much more interesting prospect to me if he were an elite defender, which by all accounts he is not despite the speed.

[tmwiese55]

This seems so lopsided in our favor it has me thinking through what we might be missing as outsiders.  I guess the first thing I can think of is why didn't these other teams want Contreras?   Basically why is Atlanta so desperate to trade for a C when they have one like this, plus I think D'arnaud is still there for a year or two.  If Oak is trading their good C who's close to FA wouldn't they want a young controlled guy like this back?

 Is it just the weak D, do they think his hitting last year was a fluke, personality/attitude?  Can someone in tune with prospects give info on how he was viewed coming up? Such as was he always considered a top prospect or did this year last year kind of surprise everyone?  I don't know, this seems too good to be true. 

[areacodes]

42 minutes ago, owbc said:

Who cares how hard you hit the ball when you have a .447 OBP and steal 85 bases? With the limited pickoff moves starting this year in MLB, Ruiz is going to be able to steal a ton of bases. I'm obviously a huge fan of the trade like everyone else, but Ruiz is going to be fun to watch at the MLB level. It's pretty clear what the A's were looking for. 

One question though -- how did this dude get hit by a pitch 27 times in one season? He must have been leaning into everything inside. He's clearly about as close to an OBP specialist as you can get.

 

 

Shouldn’t that theoretically help all of our OF prospects when they come up?

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, homer said:

This sent me down a shallow rabbit hole.

Anyone know if they track bunt attempts for a hit as opposed to sacrifice? I only spent a few min on it but thought it'd be pretty easy to find.

A sacrifice bunt won’t count as an AB. So any bunt resulting in a successful sacrifice is only a PA.

if the player is credited with an AB they either were going for a hit intentionally or they failed miserably at a sacrifice bunt.

 

[jay87shot]

 

28 minutes ago, wntrtxn21 said:

I think it's premature to think Contreras DHs on days he's not catching.  IF Winker works out, he'll be the primary DH unless a lefty is throwing.  CC likes to give his primary catcher days off. I just don't see him wasting a spot on the bench for a third catcher.  If Contreras was DHing and needed to catch because of injury, CC could then just pinch hit when the pitcher.'s spot comes up. Everything remains to be seen, but by a baseball miracle, the Crew now has Contreras. 

I would DH Contrares against lefties if we had a reasonable emergency catcher, I doubt we would keep 3 catchers so he could DH some. That way his leg can stay fresher and we can keep his bat in the lineup more. A guy like Willians Astudillo would be interesting as a 3rd catcher who can play elsewhere, his bat obviously hasn't been good enough to make the roster but someone who could spell Caratini and play other spots. Daulton Varsho and Austin Barnes are the only other guys who can catch and play other positions that I can come up with off the top of my head.

[monty57]

I thought maybe it was just rose-colored glasses, but I liked Ruiz since we acquired him. He's fast, and apparently re-worked his swing which led to vastly improved offensive numbers. He was moved off of second base because of "heavy hands," so he's still raw in the OF, but scouts seem to think he should be able to stick at CF once he gets more experience there.

That said, I still had him as our fourth best OF of the AAA bunch. Frelick and Mitchell are also high OBP guys with speed, and they have a longer track record of good offensive numbers, while there's a chance that Ruiz just had one fluky good season. Wiemer is more of a power guy, but he was also probably ahead of Ruiz on the depth chart. Meanwhile, our "potential Juan Soto-talent" is sitting in AA and it looks like he'll be in Milwaukee fairly soon. Oh, and we have a high-priced LF in Milwaukee who isn't going anywhere.

So, Ruiz is a talented prospect I like, but he didn't have a clear shot to the majors in Milwaukee. It made sense to trade him. That Arnold was able to get a 24-year-old who plays the position of Milwaukee's greatest need, and was an All Star in his rookie season is amazing. We needed a catcher... check. We needed a power RH bat... check. We needed someone who could hit LHP... check. We need pre-arby guys with team control... check. Oh, we also need bullpen help, so Arnold had them throw in a couple relievers. 

I hope Ruiz has a nice career, but even if he does, this was a trade Arnold had to take advantage of. The Brewers are a much better team now and for the next few years. Well done.