NL Central Discussion

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

The better question is whether the projections are actually accurate in predicting anything at all.

What do you mean by accurate?

100% accuracy? That is impossible. More accurate than any one individual’s brain can muster on its own given the nearly infinite variables involved? Surely.

This article’s a few years old at this point after the Rays hired Sullivan, but it does a good job of showing how even after the season is halfway over the projections are still much better at predicting what happens in the second half than either of what had already happened (actual record) or what should have happened (pythag record) during the first half.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, Frisbee Slider said:

What data could Fangraphs be using to predict the Cardinals will outperform Milwaukee the rest of the way?

The short version is the projections believe the Brewers are over performing on both offense (4.90 R/G vs 4.31 R/G projected rest of season) and run prevention (3.29 RA/G vs 4.25 RA/G projected rest of season) through the first 13% of the season.

Conversely, the Cardinals have been about as expected on offense (4.62 R/G vs 4.52 R/G projected rest of season) while their pitching probably isn’t quite as bad as their current ERA (4.90 RA/G vs 4.28 RA/G projected rest of season) suggests.

[Frisbee Slider]

I see the Cardinals’ pitching has third-worst BABIP allowed and third worst HR/FB % in MLB. If that regresses to middle of the pack, they will improve.

They also are third-worst for hard hit percentage allowed, which could also mean hitters are just hitting Cardinal pitching hard this year.

 

 

[Frisbee Slider]

Milwaukee and Saint Louis hitters have identical BABIP, suggesting similar luck. Both third-highest in MLB. If both teams regress on BABIP then in theory, both offenses decline.

[wiguy94]

Just now, Frisbee Slider said:

Milwaukee and Saint Louis hitters have identical BABIP, suggesting similar luck. Both third-highest in MLB. If both teams regress on BABIP then in theory, both offenses decline.

That's assuming the quality of contact is similar for both teams and it is not. Cardinals xBA is .267 (best in MLB) compared to our .243 (17th in MLB) and their xSLG is .446 (5th in MLB) compared to our .390 (22nd in MLB). Their .347 xwOBA is 4th in the MLB compared to our .318 which is 18th. 

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, SF70 said:

The Pirates pitching is vastly underrated and has transformed them into team to be reckoned with. Playoffs probably not. 82 wins— quite possible.

Keller and Oviedo have taken big-steps forward and with the age-less Rich Hill continuing to get outs and Roansey Contreras pitching like his stuff warrants, they have the makings of an average to maybe even an above average starting-staff.

Collin Holderman has really exploded onto the scene and given the team a dominant set-up man for David Bednar. Duane Underwood & co are underrated middle-relievers as well.

Then add their young, fast and talented positional players to that improved pitching-staff and suddenly you have a pretty good team.

This is a bit of an exaggeration. Rich Hill is pitching no different than the slightly above replacement level pitcher he's been over the past few years. Contreras is the same as last year, intriguing stuff but still walking way too many and not striking out what his stuff would indicate. Oviedo and Keller have taken steps forward, but still no better than mid-rotation pitchers.

Then, on the position player side, you have Reynolds who is a true star, but otherwise you have a bunch of veterans and lower pedigree young position players playing out of their minds. For instance, McCutchen has suddenly started hitting like it's 2014, and Connor freaking Joe has a wRC+ approaching 200...

Better than the past couple of years, when they were really bad? Sure. But an up and coming team? It remains to be seen. 

[SF70]

6 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

This is a bit of an exaggeration. Rich Hill is pitching no different than the slightly above replacement level pitcher he's been over the past few years. Contreras is the same as last year, intriguing stuff but still walking way too many and not striking out what his stuff would indicate. Oviedo and Keller have taken steps forward, but still no better than mid-rotation pitchers.

Then, on the position player side, you have Reynolds who is a true star, but otherwise you have a bunch of veterans and lower pedigree young position players playing out of their minds. For instance, McCutchen has suddenly started hitting like it's 2014, and Connor freaking Joe has a wRC+ approaching 200...

Better than the past couple of years, when they were really bad? Sure. But an up and coming team? It remains to be seen. 

Defense is underrated. Speed as well. Agree McCutcheon is vastly over-performing his talent-level. But the pitching gains are real and it’s because of that pitching, Pittsburgh is a much improved team.

[edfunderburk]

Cubs & Pirates are much better than last year

Cards are already 7 games back of Brewers

What a great start to the new season

 

[brewcrewdue80]

Before we get on a Pirates scary team wheel let's remember 10 games pitched and batted against have been Cincy and Colorado.  Expected bottom feeders in each division. Kudos to them doing what they should and beat those 2 handedly.

[KeithStone53151]

Ehhhh, the Pirates have a good young core. One of that young core is out for the season, but they have young talent and it was more a matter of when not if they would get good. I didn't think it would be this quick...still might not be. Changing of the guards happen in baseball much quicker than projection systems can catch them. The year the Cubs won like 100 games and went deep in the playoffs with the Baez/Rizzo/Bryant core...most projection systems had them around 80-82 wins.

[Brewcrew82]

Geez. McCutchen's already put up more than half of his bWAR total from last year in 21 games....

[nate82]

The Cardinals are currently sitting at 9-16 and could have an even worse record as they finish out against the Dodgers this weekend.

In April the Cardinals have gone 9-15 so far.  No matter how you cut this this doesn’t look good for the Cardinals.

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, nate82 said:

The Cardinals are currently sitting at 9-16 and could have an even worse record as they finish out against the Dodgers this weekend.

In April the Cardinals have gone 9-15 so far.  No matter how you cut this this doesn’t look good for the Cardinals.

Despite our injuries, we're still in pretty good shape almost a month into the season. I don't think many people are buying the Pirates as a real contender, and even the Cubs to a lesser extent. 

[markedman5]

Pirates hammer Dodgers again………not just doing it against the dregs of mlb.

offense putting up lots of runs on a regular basis.

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, markedman5 said:

Pirates hammer Dodgers again………not just doing it against the dregs of mlb.

offense putting up lots of runs on a regular basis.

Connor Joe, Andrew McCutchen, and Jack Suwinski leading the charge for them alongside Reynolds. I think we can expect some regression there....

[BruisedCrew]

On 4/23/2023 at 6:12 PM, brewcrewdue80 said:

Before we get on a Pirates scary team wheel let's remember 10 games pitched and batted against have been Cincy and Colorado.  Expected bottom feeders in each division. Kudos to them doing what they should and beat those 2 handedly.

Funny, but when I pointed out last year that the Brewers hot April was padded by a lot of games against the Reds, Pirates, and Cubs I was dismissed as a pessimist. The Brewers proceeded to play .500 ball the rest of the season.

I wouldn’t be too quick to dismiss the Cubs and Pirates as potential contenders to win the division. If the Cardinals don’t straighten out like they seem to every year, and the Brewers can’t stabilize their pitching situation, we could be looking at a division race that could be won with 85 wins or less, and it wouldn’t take that much for those teams to achieve that. 
 

As a previous  poster pointed out, it isn’t unusual for baseball teams to have a significant year over year improvement that nobody predicted before the season started. The Brewers have done it a few times, in 1978, 2007, and 2017. The Royals in 2015 went from years of futility to the World Series. 
 

As the Brewers have shown in this homestand, beating teams that a team “should” beat doesn’t always happen. So, I wouldn’t scoff at the Pirates beating up on the Reds (who just swept the Rangers) and Rockies, or the Cubs for winning something like 10 of 13 recently. 

[Brewcrew82]

50 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Funny, but when I pointed out last year that the Brewers hot April was padded by a lot of games against the Reds, Pirates, and Cubs I was dismissed as a pessimist. The Brewers proceeded to play .500 ball the rest of the season.

I wouldn’t be too quick to dismiss the Cubs and Pirates as potential contenders to win the division. If the Cardinals don’t straighten out like they seem to every year, and the Brewers can’t stabilize their pitching situation, we could be looking at a division race that could be won with 85 wins or less, and it wouldn’t take that much for those teams to achieve that. 
 

As a previous  poster pointed out, it isn’t unusual for baseball teams to have a significant year over year improvement that nobody predicted before the season started. The Brewers have done it a few times, in 1978, 2007, and 2017. The Royals in 2015 went from years of futility to the World Series. 
 

As the Brewers have shown in this homestand, beating teams that a team “should” beat doesn’t always happen. So, I wouldn’t scoff at the Pirates beating up on the Reds (who just swept the Rangers) and Rockies, or the Cubs for winning something like 10 of 13 recently. 

I’ll scoff at the notion that Andrew McCutchen and Connor Joe are going to keep hitting at the MVP/all-star level they currently are and power them to a division title. 

[brewcrewdue80]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

Funny, but when I pointed out last year that the Brewers hot April was padded by a lot of games against the Reds, Pirates, and Cubs I was dismissed as a pessimist. The Brewers proceeded to play .500 ball the rest of the season.

I wouldn’t be too quick to dismiss the Cubs and Pirates as potential contenders to win the division. If the Cardinals don’t straighten out like they seem to every year, and the Brewers can’t stabilize their pitching situation, we could be looking at a division race that could be won with 85 wins or less, and it wouldn’t take that much for those teams to achieve that. 
 

As a previous  poster pointed out, it isn’t unusual for baseball teams to have a significant year over year improvement that nobody predicted before the season started. The Brewers have done it a few times, in 1978, 2007, and 2017. The Royals in 2015 went from years of futility to the World Series. 
 

As the Brewers have shown in this homestand, beating teams that a team “should” beat doesn’t always happen. So, I wouldn’t scoff at the Pirates beating up on the Reds (who just swept the Rangers) and Rockies, or the Cubs for winning something like 10 of 13 recently. 

In regards to the Pirates their pitching isn't tearing it up for to deserve their record. Runs not allowed sure, but Fip?  It's just like you knew the Brewers bullpen couldn't hold up with that start. Certainly happy the Pirates are distancing themselves from Stl.

Cubs I'm just meh. I don't think they have the firepower to build up as the season goes.

[Frisbee Slider]

Thankfully, the Pirates play the Rays and Blue Jays next week.

[igor67]

Looking ahead to mid May and the next Cardinals series, they have a middle of the road schedule coming up. They are already 10 back of the Pirates if they don't pick it up we could be looking at a chance in mid-May to just bury them in the standings, with the more balanced schedule and fewer head to head games there are less chances to get hot later and quickly make up ground.

[BruisedCrew]

On 4/29/2023 at 5:30 PM, Frisbee Slider said:

Thankfully, the Pirates play the Rays and Blue Jays next week.

The Bucs open their series in Tampa tomorrow.

The Rays will be starting Javy Guerra. 

[nate82]

For the month of April NL Central Records:

 

The run differential for the Reds and Cardinals back up their records while the Cubs should have won more games with their run differential. 

[Robocaller]

Before the season, If you said the Brewers would be 8 1/2 ahead of the Cardinals on May 1, I'd have assumed that Arenado and Goldschmidt were both injured for most of the season.

If you had said the Pirates would be 1 1/2 games ahead of the Brewers on May 1,  I'd have assumed that at least two of Adames, Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta missed a large amount of time and our rookies had been unplayable.

Weird things happening.

[Brewcrew82]

We avoid Ohtani and Sandoval. Cardinals, who play the Angels starting tonight, get those guys. Love it. 

[BruisedCrew]

The Brewers probably would have been better off facing Ohtani than Anderson or Suarez.