NL Central Discussion

[Brewcrew82]

10 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Fangraphs has them at 8.5% now… I think this is about right. I disagree with the zero %.

Obviously, mathematically they don't have a 0% chance. I'm just saying they're not making the playoffs this year, and I feel fully comfortable making that statement. 

[brewcrewdue80]

6 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Fangraphs has them at 8.5% now… I think this is about right. I disagree with the zero %.

You are counting on 8 teams to fall apart. Underachieving teams like Mets/Padres to continue to play below expectations while a team 14games below 500 to suddenly make an epic winning streak the final half of the season.  1 team to overcome vs 8.  A bunch of these teams will play vs. Eachother where 1 team has to win. Take Brewers vs Pirates now. Brewers vs Cubs next. No matter what they can't gain a game on 1 of the teams in that scenario. Without winning 7 straight games right now they will fall a game further behind that days winning team. 

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

You are counting on 8 teams to fall apart. Underachieving teams like Mets/Padres to continue to play below expectations while a team 14games below 500 to suddenly make an epic winning streak the final half of the season.  1 team to overcome vs 8.  A bunch of these teams will play vs. Eachother where 1 team has to win. Take Brewers vs Pirates now. Brewers vs Cubs next. No matter what they can't gain a game on 1 of the teams in that scenario. Without winning 7 straight games right now they will fall a game further behind that days winning team. 

Thus the low percentage. It’s 8.5 out of 100, not 10.

I agree with what you are saying. Great points. Low percentage. It seems like you want it to be even lower….4 or 5 %? I could see that too.

[brewcrewdue80]

2 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Thus the low percentage. It’s 8.5 out of 100, not 10.

I agree with what you are saying. Great points. Low percentage. It seems like you want it to be even lower….4 or 5 %? I could see that too.

Does the percentage even care or consider this scenario?

The point is when it was 2011 Stl only had to worry about the Braves. They weren't behind 2 or more teams where it's guaranteed 1 will win when facing eachother. It's just how well does Atl play vs how well Stl played. Were there H2H games to play still?

This current percentage likely goes off current rosters and not rosters when deadline is over. 

It's just the number of teams they have to gain on. 4 teams are like 8 or more games ahead of them. Add 5 games behind Milw/Cincy (on division deficit because again somebody has to win these upcoming 9games vs eachother. This is where was it Nate who pointed out the amount of win pct pace they'd have to be on to catch the top teams ahead of them. Each h2h between the teams currently ahead of the Cards is another .5 games the Cards are behind that team. Those 8 at the moment control their destiny finishing ahead of the Cardinals. Now I suppose Cubs/Pirates could have enough games facing the Cards that the Cards control their destiny over them. But that's not happening with all the teams ahead of them.

[82brewcrew82]

21 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Why are you continuing to compare the 2011 team to a team that is 14 games under .500 on July 1st and has one of the worst pitching staffs in the MLB?

Attention?

[rickh150]

17 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Does the percentage even care or consider this scenario?

The point is when it was 2011 Stl only had to worry about the Braves. They weren't behind 2 or more teams where it's guaranteed 1 will win when facing eachother. It's just how well does Atl play vs how well Stl played. Were there H2H games to play still?

This current percentage likely goes off current rosters and not rosters when deadline is over. 

It's just the number of teams they have to gain on. 4 teams are like 8 or more games ahead of them. Add 5 games behind Milw/Cincy (on division deficit because again somebody has to win these upcoming 9games vs eachother. This is where was it Nate who pointed out the amount of win pct pace they'd have to be on to catch the top teams ahead of them. Each h2h between the teams currently ahead of the Cards is another .5 games the Cards are behind that team. Those 8 at the moment control their destiny finishing ahead of the Cardinals. Now I suppose Cubs/Pirates could have enough games facing the Cards that the Cards control their destiny over them. But that's not happening with all the teams ahead of them.

The percentages are all encompassing.  Obviously. 

[rickh150]

40 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

Attention?

I say the Cards are not zero percent out of the playoff …9 or 10 percent chance yet, in that ballpark.

Mathematically, everyone agrees Cards are still in it, even though a couple/few think the Cards have no shot. Fine and normal.

I’m not sure where I go with this when everyone mathematically agrees with me. It’s like I’m supposed to say the Cards are out of it when they simply are not.  Odds are really against them, though. 
 

Showing a recent  Cardinal season (2011) of overcoming incredible odds to not just make the playoffs but win the World Series is seemingly too difficult for some to parallel. 

 

 

[82brewcrew82]

15 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

I say the Cards are not zero percent out of the playoff …9 or 10 percent chance yet, in that ballpark.

Mathematically, everyone agrees Cards are still in it, even though a couple/few think the Cards have no shot. Fine and normal.

I’m not sure where I go with this when everyone mathematically agrees with me. It’s like I’m supposed to say the Cards are out of it when they simply are not.  Odds are really against them, though. 
 

Showing a recent  Cardinal season (2011) of overcoming incredible odds to not just make the playoffs but win the World Series is seemingly too difficult for some to parallel. 

 

 

12  years ago is not recent and the roster and situation are not the same in any way.  Cardinals are out of it.

[LouisEly]

[BruisedCrew]

10 hours ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

12  years ago is not recent and the roster and situation are not the same in any way.  Cardinals are out of it.

If recency is the issue then go back to 2021 and look at where the Cardinals stood in early to mid August. Their playoff chances were less than 5% then. 

[82brewcrew82]

13 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

If recency is the issue then go back to 2021 and look at where the Cardinals stood in early to mid August. Their playoff chances were less than 5% then. 

I say the Cards are done.  If I'm wrong, I'll own it.

[Jake McKibbin]

Abbott has faced some tough opposition so far since his first start v the Brewers, but wow has he taken to it. Seems the Reds may have a genuine ace in town

[homer]

20 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Abbott has faced some tough opposition so far since his first start v the Brewers, but wow has he taken to it. Seems the Reds may have a genuine ace in town

If they get another decent starter or two, they are gonna be trouble for a few years. 

[Jake McKibbin]

They have real potential in that department. I think if I could take any player, I'd probably want Matt McLain, I think he's been incredible so far this season with a really high floor too, and quality defense.

With the continued development and potential of Lodolo, Greene, Ashcraft and Abbott, that could be fearsome if it all comes together. Fair play to them for some of the assets they've acquired by selling the last two seasons, some immense returns

[Jopal78]

56 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Abbott has faced some tough opposition so far since his first start v the Brewers, but wow has he taken to it. Seems the Reds may have a genuine ace in town

Think the Brewers wish they could do the Freddy Zamora pick over again? Abbott is in the majors and looks legit.  Zamora , another college player, is still in AA and doesn’t have a clear path to Milwaukee even if his play warranted it. 

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

They have real potential in that department. I think if I could take any player, I'd probably want Matt McLain, I think he's been incredible so far this season with a really high floor too, and quality defense.

With the continued development and potential of Lodolo, Greene, Ashcraft and Abbott, that could be fearsome if it all comes together. Fair play to them for some of the assets they've acquired by selling the last two seasons, some immense returns

Minnesota has to absolutely be kicking themselves for that Mahle trade. 1.5 seasons of Mahle (tore his UCL so they only got the 0.5 seasons) and they gave up Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, and I think a minor league pitcher. Steer is having a great season and CES is destroying AAA. 
 

That trade is going to age quite terrible for the Twins. 

[wiguy94]

Just now, Jopal78 said:

Think the Brewers wish they could do the Freddy Zamora pick over again? Abbott is in the majors and looks legit, Zamora , another college player, yet still in AA and doesn’t have a clear path to Milwaukee even if his play warranted it. 

Weird comparison as they weren’t even drafted in the same draft. Abbott was drafted in 2021, 2 picks after Russell Smith not Zamora who was drafted in 2020.

[Jake McKibbin]

Just now, wiguy94 said:

Weird comparison as they weren’t even drafted in the same draft. Abbott was drafted in 2021, 2 picks after Russell Smith not Zamora who was drafted in 2020.

Probably even more appropriate in that case... seems to be a great find, 12 K's last night is massive

[Jopal78]

2 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Weird comparison as they weren’t even drafted in the same draft. Abbott was drafted in 2021, 2 picks after Russell Smith not Zamora who was drafted in 2020.

No, you’re right I knew they passed on Abbott for another college player, got the year wrong. Argument still stands as Russell Smith appears to have been a cost saving selection and so far doesn’t look like a major leaguer. 

[Jopal78]

13 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Minnesota has to absolutely be kicking themselves for that Mahle trade. 1.5 seasons of Mahle (tore his UCL so they only got the 0.5 seasons) and they gave up Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, and I think a minor league pitcher. Steer is having a great season and CES is destroying AAA. 
 

That trade is going to age quite terrible for the Twins. 

Of course it is, that’s the risk of being a deadline buyer and acquiring controllable talent. They were in first place when they made that deal and choked down the stretch.

It’s really no different than the Brewers with Sabathia. The outcome was different (made playoffs) so it’s easier to swallow,  but the Brewers traded away a player who has a 35 career WAR; who made 5 all star teams, and but for injuries would be on a 3,000 career hit track. 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Alright, the Reds are good. They will go through a bad stretch eventually (starting pitching is thin, and that ballpark is really going to test it), but I think this is going to be a tight race all the way to the end. I have a hard time seeing the Brewers creating a ton of separation. 

That said, how good are the Giants? How good are the Marlins? I thought the NL Central was bad, but I will not be at all surprised if the division has two playoff teams. 

[82brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Alright, the Reds are good. They will go through a bad stretch eventually (starting pitching is thin, and that ballpark is really going to test it), but I think this is going to be a tight race all the way to the end. I have a hard time seeing the Brewers creating a ton of separation.

That's all I'm saying.

[sveumrules]

4 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

That said, how good are the Giants? How good are the Marlins? I thought the NL Central was bad, but I will not be at all surprised if the division has two playoff teams. 

Yeah right now there are the Marlins (49 W), Phillies (44 W) and Dodgers, Giants, Reds & Brewers (all at 46 W) pretty bunched up together three four games apart in the standings.

Automatic playoff teams like the Mets  & Padres floundering, plus the various uncertainties of those six teams above definitely help the odds of the NL Central loser grabbing a Wild Card spot.

[brewcrewdue80]

Was curious seeing as we're in a 17games in 17 days stretch how the Reds schedule compared. Think I seen it as 13games in 13days being their longest stretch. We've now had 2 10game road trips with no days off during. 3games before the 1st for 13straight. And this 10game has 7 at home for the 17straight. Cincy has had a 9game road trip thus far as longest with a day off after 6.  Their next 10game road trip (1st) after allstar break has a day off after 3games here, and the next 7 begin their 13games in 13days with 6 at home.  Then they have their 3games at home-10games on road for 13straight to finish Aug 30. Certainly advantage through their season.  And oh yeah we have another 17games in 17days in September vs just 9 as their longest.

About that StL. team. They play us 7 times, Cincy 6 times, and Pitt 3 times in Sept. But talk about a gauntlet finish after Aug 16th. No team below 38wins currently.

 

[Brewcrew82]

If there was any doubt about the Cardinals and their priorities…They’re donezo