NL Central Discussion

[Underachiever]

Pederson loses a ball in the wind, Gomes with an infield single, Giants 3B throws the ball away on a contact play, and the Cubs score six, but sure, the Brewers are lucky.

[Jopal78]

9 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Pederson loses a ball in the wind, Gomes with an infield single, Giants 3B throws the ball away on a contact play, and the Cubs score six, but sure, the Brewers are lucky.

How about 36 year old Yan Gomes having his best season in a decade…. Just like 36 year old David Ross in ‘16.

[wibadgers23]

Not a fan of the Cubs offense. Ugh!

[bucks2281]

Probably in the minority here, but I’m not terribly concerned about winning the division, especially if it results in 2-3 Wild Card games at home against the Cubs.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, bucks2281 said:

Probably in the minority here, but I’m not terribly concerned about winning the division, especially if it results in 2-3 Wild Card games at home against the Cubs.

Obviously lots of time left, but the way teams are currently clumped up it looks like loser of the NLC is going to end up as WC2 playing Philly while the NLC winner will be playing one of the four #6 Seed contenders.

Byes
ATL (90-47) LAD (84-53)

#3/4/5 Seeds
MIL (77-61) PHI (76-62) CHI (75-64)

#6 Seed 
CIN (73-68) MIA (71-67) ARI (71-68) SFG (70-69)

[owbc]

It will be interesting to see if the lower seeds have success again this year. Last year both of the 5 seeds and one of the 6 seeds advanced out of WC weekend. Then both Atlanta and LA lost in the second round. 

Honestly, the WC series will be terrifying and I don’t like the Brewers’ odds of getting out of it against one of these teams that has nothing to lose like Chicago or Cincinnati. I’d almost rather take my chances against Philadelphia, especially given how well we just played them. 

The plus side is that the teams that do survive WC weekend carry a ton of momentum into the NLDS. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The fact that the Cubs have been able to rebuild so quickly into a contender makes me a little mad. I mean, money helps obviously, but anyone could have signed Bellinger for the contract he got. Stroman was the only real huge contract they had this offseason, and he's been hurt. They are basically doing this with spare parts, reclamation projects, and both veterans and young nobody-types who are having career years. 

[sveumrules]

36 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

The fact that the Cubs have been able to rebuild so quickly into a contender makes me a little mad. I mean, money helps obviously, but anyone could have signed Bellinger for the contract he got. Stroman was the only real huge contract they had this offseason, and he's been hurt. They are basically doing this with spare parts, reclamation projects, and both veterans and young nobody-types who are having career years. 

Stroman and Seiya Suzuki were two offseasons ago, Dansby Swanson was their big signing this past offseason along with Taillon.

That’s like $400M in long term signings   the last two offseasons to kick start the rebuild.

I’m not sure if the Brewers have even given out $400M in free agent contracts in their entire history.

Lohse, Aramis, Soup, Garza and Cain are only like $240M combined.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

4 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Stroman and Seiya Suzuki were two offseasons ago, Dansby Swanson was their big signing this past offseason along with Taillon.

That’s like $400M in long term signings   the last two offseasons to kick start the rebuild.

I’m not sure if the Brewers have even given out $400M in free agent contracts in their entire history.

Lohse, Aramis, Soup, Garza and Cain are only like $240M combined.

Yeah, good points. I admit to not following the Cubs too closely up until a few weeks ago. Money definitely helped speed up the rebuild. 

[StearnsFTW]

7 hours ago, owbc said:

It will be interesting to see if the lower seeds have success again this year. Last year both of the 5 seeds and one of the 6 seeds advanced out of WC weekend. Then both Atlanta and LA lost in the second round. 

Honestly, the WC series will be terrifying and I don’t like the Brewers’ odds of getting out of it against one of these teams that has nothing to lose like Chicago or Cincinnati. I’d almost rather take my chances against Philadelphia, especially given how well we just played them. 

The plus side is that the teams that do survive WC weekend carry a ton of momentum into the NLDS. 

I'll take the Reds 100 times out of 100.

[Outlander]

The good thing about the Cubs winning is there is only a small chance the Brewers will play them in the playoffs in any scenario.

[wibadgers23]

1 minute ago, Outlander said:

The good thing about the Cubs winning is there is only a small chance the Brewers will play them in the playoffs in any scenario.

Yeah last thing we need is a bunch of Cubs fans showing up to Am Fam in a playoff series. Gross.

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

The fact that the Cubs have been able to rebuild so quickly into a contender makes me a little mad. I mean, money helps obviously, but anyone could have signed Bellinger for the contract he got. Stroman was the only real huge contract they had this offseason, and he's been hurt. They are basically doing this with spare parts, reclamation projects, and both veterans and young nobody-types who are having career years. 

A contender for what?  A marginal shot at winning the 2nd weakest division in baseball?  The Cubs are having a decent season and have an improved farm system (really nowhere for that to go but up based on where it was a couple years ago), but for a large market team playing in a small market division I don't see them being in a great spot for consistent success longterm.  They somehow have a payroll pushing $200M dollars with a roster loaded up with those spare parts/young nobody-types.  Happ is going to go from an $11M salary this year to $20M, will the Cubs exercise the $14M option for Hendricks next year?  Bellinger is a pending FA assuming he doesn't agree to that mutual 2024 option and I think the Cubs may throw way more $$ than they should to keep him around.  Taillon is in year one of a 4 year contract that looks brutal based on his near 6 ERA this season.  Their best starter, Steele, isn't even in arbitration yet and he's 28 and about to log a ton more innings than he ever has in his career...his agent is going to be demanding some sort of longterm contract extension, or at minimum his payroll hit will be climbing rapidly each of the next 4 seasons.

Of course, the Cubs can afford payroll bumps more than the Brewers - but they are still a team that should be in rebuild/retool mode looking for better longterm options at a bunch of spots on their roster.   

 

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

10 minutes ago, Outlander said:

The good thing about the Cubs winning is there is only a small chance the Brewers will play them in the playoffs in any scenario.

Disagree...there is never a good thing about the Cubs!

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

The fact that the Cubs have been able to rebuild so quickly into a contender makes me a little mad. I mean, money helps obviously, but anyone could have signed Bellinger for the contract he got. Stroman was the only real huge contract they had this offseason, and he's been hurt. They are basically doing this with spare parts, reclamation projects, and both veterans and young nobody-types who are having career years. 

You left out Suzuki (OPS +114) and Dansby Swanson (4.1 bWAR) as two other recent signees with hefty contracts. 

I also think you maybe underestimating some of the other players they  had in house. 

Kyle Hendricks had a shoulder injury last year but now healthy has returned to his career norms and is a terrific middle rotation starter. Hoerner and Happ are a couple of  1st round picks in ‘18 and ‘15 respectively and have been quality players for a few seasons. Christopher Morel has come on this year, and shouldn’t be unexpected given the Cubs gave him $800,000 as a 16 year old in the DR.

Justin Steele really developed for them into a #1 starter and Alzolay went from a highly touted pitching prospect who struggled as a starter to a very fine closer.

Perhaps the cupboards weren’t as bare as the pundits thought they were. 

 

[Jopal78]

33 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

A contender for what?  A marginal shot at winning the 2nd weakest division in baseball?  The Cubs are having a decent season and have an improved farm system (really nowhere for that to go but up based on where it was a couple years ago), but for a large market team playing in a small market division I don't see them being in a great spot for consistent success longterm.  They somehow have a payroll pushing $200M dollars with a roster loaded up with those spare parts/young nobody-types.  Happ is going to go from an $11M salary this year to $20M, will the Cubs exercise the $14M option for Hendricks next year?  Bellinger is a pending FA assuming he doesn't agree to that mutual 2024 option and I think the Cubs may throw way more $$ than they should to keep him around.  Taillon is in year one of a 4 year contract that looks brutal based on his near 6 ERA this season.  Their best starter, Steele, isn't even in arbitration yet and he's 28 and about to log a ton more innings than he ever has in his career...his agent is going to be demanding some sort of longterm contract extension, or at minimum his payroll hit will be climbing rapidly each of the next 4 seasons.

Of course, the Cubs can afford payroll bumps more than the Brewers - but they are still a team that should be in rebuild/retool mode looking for better longterm options at a bunch of spots on their roster.   

 

 

Arguably one could say the Cubs are rebuilding. They just took a different approach than the small market teams do, and used their spending power to assemble a higher floor than typical rebuilding teams: Happ, Hoerner, Suzuki, Swanson, Steele, Alzolay, Morel. 

Next the quality prospects they acquired from selling off Rizzo, Bryant, Baez etc. are about to start breaking into the majors which should raise that floor even higher. Then they still have the financial wherewithal to add a couple of starters like Blake Snell and Aaron Nola this off season to make their squad quite formidable going forward. 

[Underachiever]

40 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

A contender for what?  A marginal shot at winning the 2nd weakest division in baseball? 

 

 

Minor pushback on the "2nd weakest division". The NLC is one of three MLB divisions with a winning record overall. The National League is 30 games over .500 against the AL, which I think has to be taken into account. Some of those AL records are being bolstered by some of the god-awful teams over there. And before you bring up the Oakland series, I saw it. But there has to be some weight given to the body of work over a season by teams, divisions, and leagues. The two East divisions pass the record test and the eye test, but after that? The NL West has the Dodgers and...? So, while I am not saying that the NLC is a gauntlet, I think that perceptions at the beginning of the year that it was a weak division are still coloring the view of it now.

And the Cubs sure are giving me echoes of the 19 Nats and 21 Braves right now. If you want to ban me for that kind of devil talk, I will completely understand.

 

[StearnsFTW]

I was going to post something similar, but I'm too  tired to argue about it.

 

Thanks for doing the heavy lifting.

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

41 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Arguably one could say the Cubsare rebuilding. They just took a different approach than the small market teams do, and used their spending power to assemble a higher floor than typical rebuilding teams: Happ, Hoerner, Suzuki, Swanson, Steele, Alzolay, Morel. 

Next the quality prospects they acquired from selling off Rizzo, Bryant, Baez etc. are about to start breaking into the majors which should raise that floor even higher. Then they still have the financial wherewithal to add a couple of starters like Blake Snell and Aaron Nola this off season to make their squad quite formidable going forward. 

Besides Suzuki and Swanson, who are pricey free agent additions last offseason, the other "floor" guys were internal draft picks or international signings from a long time ago (Alzolay, 2013 int'l signing, Steele 2014 draft pick, Happ 2015 draft, Morel 2015 int'l signing, Hoerner 2018 draft),., That's not really leveraging spending power - maybe retaining Happ through his early 30s at market rate contract values is, but I'm not going to lose sleep about a rival paying $20M a year for a corner OF to OPS mid-upper 700s .  For perspective, Corbin Burnes was drafted in 2016 and he's 1 year shy of free agency.  Steele (same age as Burnes) was drafted 2 seasons earlier than him and hasn't yet entered arbitration.  

The Cubs can throw money at more problems than the Brewers ever will be able to - but to me they're a team caught in between rebuilding/contending and will continue to be for awhile.

[Brewcrew82]

19 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said: 

The Cubs can throw money at more problems than the Brewers ever will be able to - but to me they're a team caught in between rebuilding/contending and will continue to be for awhile.

Not with a top 5/3 farm system like the Brewers currently have.

[Jopal78]

35 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Besides Suzuki and Swanson, who are pricey free agent additions last offseason, the other "floor" guys were internal draft picks or international signings from a long time ago (Alzolay, 2013 int'l signing, Steele 2014 draft pick, Happ 2015 draft, Morel 2015 int'l signing, Hoerner 2018 draft),., That's not really leveraging spending power - maybe retaining Happ through his early 30s at market rate contract values is, but I'm not going to lose sleep about a rival paying $20M a year for a corner OF to OPS mid-upper 700s .  For perspective, Corbin Burnes was drafted in 2016 and he's 1 year shy of free agency.  Steele (same age as Burnes) was drafted 2 seasons earlier than him and hasn't yet entered arbitration.  

The Cubs can throw money at more problems than the Brewers ever will be able to - but to me they're a team caught in between rebuilding/contending and will continue to be for awhile.

I don’t understand what difference it makes when a player was acquired; players do not  develop at the same speed. 

After losing 88 games, they committed over 250 million dollars to free agents for the ‘23 season and onward and are likely going to see a 15-18 game improvement over ‘22.
 

Obviously not all of those players have worked out but they’re  clearly contending because if the season ended today they’d be in the playoffs, and has as good of a chance in the NL as Milwaukee or any other team outside LA or Atlanta.

Second, they still have a wave of highly regarded prospects on the way, so whatever their floor is this year, where not too many folks have them a chance, it likely will only go higher and replacing the Hosmer, Mancini, Taillon, Smyly type players with homegrown cost controlled players will allow them to use that entertainment district and Marquee network revenue to add more premium talent via free agency should they deem it necessary. 

[areacodes]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Not with a top 5/3 farm system like the Brewers currently have.

I believe he’s saying the Cubs are stuck “between rebuilding/contending and will continue to be for awhile.” not the Brewers.

[Brewcrew82]

53 minutes ago, areacodes said:

I believe he’s saying the Cubs are stuck “between rebuilding/contending and will continue to be for awhile.” not the Brewers.

Cubs have a top 5/3 farm system, like the Brewers...

[areacodes]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Cubs have a top 5/3 farm system, like the Brewers...

Sorry - misread your reply to them.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

18 hours ago, bucks2281 said:

Probably in the minority here, but I’m not terribly concerned about winning the division, especially if it results in 2-3 Wild Card games at home against the Cubs.

Agree completely.

I think it's reasonably likely the division is still up-for-grabs going into that last series, but both teams have playoff berths sewn up. In that scenario, I would be more concerned with setting my rotation than winning homefield advantage.

For me, the bottom line is the season is going to come down to a three-game series. I mean, it might be a three-game series against the Marlins (half-blue), but it will be a three-game series where the Brewers need to win 2 of 3.

Depending on the scenario, I'd almost rather be on the road, especially if we end up playing the Cubs. And I'd rather play Chicago/Cincy/Philly than Arizona in round one. I'm terrified of the D-Backs when they throw out their good pitchers.

My optimistic take is this: One of the Cubs/Dbacks are going to take on losses over the next 4 days. If the Brewers can play well in NY, they'll be very close to clinching a playoff spot. At that point, you really just have to take care of business against the Marlins. And making the playoffs has really been my goal all season long. Winning the division would be a nice bonus and a bit of a comfort should we drop that first-round series, but being there matters more than anything, especially with the pitching (starters and bullpen) we can throw out in a short series.