2023 MLB Postseason Discussion

[markedman5]

So the Dodgers let Kolton Wong hit with the bases loaded and 2 outs  in the 7th…..down two runs.

 

[sveumrules]

59 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

So the Dodgers let Kolton Wong hit with the bases loaded and 2 outs  in the 7th…..down two runs.

 

He was pinch hitting for Miguel Rojas, 69 wRC+ this year (52 wRC+ vs RHP).

Wong stunk most of the season, but at least put up a 130 wRC+ in his 34 PA once joining the Dodgers, and had the platoon advantage for the AB since ARI had just brought in the righty.

ZiPS (94 to 79) and Steamer (94 to 86) both favor Wong by wRC+ projection at this point, so Roberts was trying to get his team a marginal edge there.

But yeah, even at $240M the Dodgers have to rely on some sketchy options at the back end after the top six, seven guys.

[Brewcrew82]

Dodgers might be done with their starting pitching situation. It's a shame we had to have the series vs. the Dbacks we did, because I suspected this might happen with the Dodgers being more vulnerable than usual. 

[markedman5]

 

[MrTPlush]

8 hours ago, markedman5 said:

 

Phillies darn near made that three teams this year. 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I mean, the team that beats the Brewers almost always wins the World Series, right? It's literally happened in every postseason appearance save for one (2018).

I'd grab those 6 or 7 to 1 odds on the DBacks now if it were any fun rooting for them.

[MVP2110]

We talk every year about how any team in the postseason can get hot at the right time and make a deep run. It seems that the 84 win Arizona Diamondbacks are that team this year 

[wiguy94]

13 hours ago, markedman5 said:

Freeman takes strike 3 right down the middle 

This would be why. Hitting a baseball is really hard and Gallen is elite at tunneling pitches off each other like this.

 

[kestrel79]

2 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

We talk every year about how any team in the postseason can get hot at the right time and make a deep run. It seems that the 84 win Arizona Diamondbacks are that team this year 

One of these years it would be nice if it were us.

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 10/9/2023 at 9:13 AM, owbc said:

The easiest solution is to make the DS seven games. 

If a change is going to be made, this is the right path to take.

People are making WAY too big of a deal about the "favorites" being down early. Kershaw pitched like garbage. The Phillies are really good and it's no surprise they're challenging the Braves. The Twins are just as good as the Astros. Baltimore simply is not as good as their record indicated.

What's the big deal here? Every postseason shakes out in crazy, unpredictable ways. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Here are the FanGraphs' BaseRuns records by matchup. The early results don't seem so out of line when approached this way (and none of this factors current team health, second half performance weight, etc).

Phillies (94-68) vs Braves (103-59) - two very good teams battling one another, no shock here

Diamondback (80-82) vs Dodgers (101-61) - this is the only real surprise but Kershaw was bad and then the Dodgers had to face Gallen

Twins (92-70) vs Astros (89-73) - this shouldn't surprise anyone other than Twins fans used to losing every postseason game

Rangers (97-65) vs Orioles (89-73) - the Orioles just aren't that good (yet), why is anyone surprised by this

[owbc]

11 minutes ago, kestrel79 said:

One of these years it would be nice if it were us.

It was us in 2018. We had no business being one game from the World Series that year. 

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Here are the FanGraphs' BaseRuns records by matchup. The early results don't seem so out of line when approached this way (and none of this factors current team health, second half performance weight, etc).

Phillies (94-68) vs Braves (103-59) - two very good teams battling one another, no shock here

Diamondback (80-82) vs Dodgers (101-61) - this is the only real surprise but Kershaw was bad and then the Dodgers had to face Gallen

Twins (92-70) vs Astros (89-73) - this shouldn't surprise anyone other than Twins fans used to losing every postseason game

Rangers (97-65) vs Orioles (89-73) - the Orioles just aren't that good (yet), why is anyone surprised by this

Does this factor in context like the Twins playing in one of the worst divisions in MLB history?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, wiguy94 said:

Does this factor in context like the Twins playing in one of the worst divisions in MLB history?

No, but they had a winning record against .500 teams and the second half Twins are quite different than the first half Twins. They were boosted by the general incompetence of the ALC but not as much as you might think.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Yeah, I'm not obsessed about the randomness of the baseball playoffs, or the favorites being down early. Every sport is like this to some extent. I don't know that baseball is any more random than hockey, for example. The NFL often features WC teams making deep runs. Basketball is probably the sport with the most predictable postseason, but that's at least partially a function of how much power NBA players have in free agency and how easy it is, structurally, to create true "superteams."

The broader postseason issue for me is the drastic, drastic difference between MLB in the regular season and MLB in the playoffs. Even hockey, where the playoffs are a totally different beast, is less different than baseball. Baseball has the largest sample regular season and the smallest sample postseason, and it's probably the sport with the highest overall degree of variance. It also has the most unequal economic structure, which makes for....a big old mix of weirdness.

I try to adjust for this by caring about things like division titles. My mentality as a fan gets adjusted because the gap between October and April-September is so wide. The other route is for baseball to make some adjustments to better reward regular season success. I agree that the simplest way to do that seems to be to extend the DS to the full seven. Would anyone complain if that were to be achieved by shortening the regular season to 156 games? I guess owners would, but at some point you can't have it both ways. It always comes back to the outsized role of market size and TV contracts in MLB for me, but I'm a Brewers fan, so what do you expect?

[owbc]

Rumors of the Astros' death have been greatly exaggerated. 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 hours ago, owbc said:

Rumors of the Astros' death have been greatly exaggerated. 

A straight up ass kicking. 

[wiguy94]

I'd like the Brewers to get one Yordan Alvarez please. I honestly cannot recall another LHH that has hit LHP as well as him. Here's the best LHH in baseball career splits (vs RHP then vs LHP).

Harper - 150 vs 122
Freeman - 152 vs 120
Soto - 167 vs 127
Ohtani - 156 vs 123
Olson - 144 vs 116
Alvarez - 170 vs 158

Yordan vs LHP is 31 points better than the next closest and he's also the best vs RHP. Just an absolutely insane hitter.

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I'd like the Brewers to get one Yordan Alvarez please. I honestly cannot recall another LHH that has hit LHP as well as him. Here's the best LHH in baseball career splits (vs RHP then vs LHP).

Harper - 150 vs 122
Freeman - 152 vs 120
Soto - 167 vs 127
Ohtani - 156 vs 123
Olson - 144 vs 116
Alvarez - 170 vs 158

Yordan vs LHP is 31 points better than the next closest and he's also the best vs RHP. Just an absolutely insane hitter.

He’s the closest thing to Barry Bonds since… you know, Barry Bonds. 

[wiguy94]

9 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

He’s the closest thing to Barry Bonds since… you know, Barry Bonds. 

Yeah that's honestly a pretty decent comparison.

Bonds career OPS vs RHP - 1.084 

Bonds career OPS vs LHP - .986

I just always forget about Bonds because he was so absurdly roided up. Dude's head size doubled in his MLB career lol

[LouisEly]

For all of the wins that the AL East racked up in the regular season, the three teams that made it in might not win one single game in the playoffs.

[Brewcrew82]

Brewers' greatest accomplishment this season was by far going to Texas after getting swept in LA and putting a whopping on this Rangers team. 

[owbc]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

For all of the wins that the AL East racked up in the regular season, the three teams that made it in might not win one single game in the playoffs.

The Boston Red Sox lead the AL East in October wins with 1. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Yeah that's honestly a pretty decent comparison.

Bonds career OPS vs RHP - 1.084 

Bonds career OPS vs LHP - .986

I just always forget about Bonds because he was so absurdly roided up. Dude's head size doubled in his MLB career lol

I have some sympathy for Bonds and I think more baseball fans should, too. By all accounts I've seen, he was clean until the very end of the 90s.

1998 broke him. He was the best player in baseball and had been for some time. I suspect seeing McGwire and Sosa go off in 98 angered him to such an extent that he said "if you think steroids made them great players, you ain't seen **** yet" and literally became the greatest force in baseball history, even including Ohtani.

And I kinda get that, particularly with his family's history with the media, coverage, and just kinda crappiness (the media was pretty brutal to his dad from what I've read, it's no wonder Barry walks around with a chip on his shoulder).

[nate82]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

I'd like the Brewers to get one Yordan Alvarez please.

I remember requesting Alvarez along with Puig for a Braun deal.  Others wanted Bellinger plus at the time which was completely unrealistic and ridiculous.  I was told for Braun the Brewers needed someone better than Alvarez at the time.