MLB 2023/2024 Free Agency Thread

[brewmann04]

Yankees have offer Snell a contract too

[markedman5]

 

[jay87shot]

Can anyone speculate why the offseason is going so slow? We are half way through January and it seems like only 1/2 the free agents have signed and there have only been a handful of meaningful trades. 

Is everyone being cheap or are the players just holding out for more.

[Underachiever]

Can anyone smarter than me talk about the Hicks contract? Starter? $44 million? For a guy who has started 8 games in his career? I don't get it. I guess because all I saw at STL was a max velocity guy, I never thought of him as a starter.

[BlazingGunz]

38 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Can anyone speculate why the offseason is going so slow? We are half way through January and it seems like only 1/2 the free agents have signed and there have only been a handful of meaningful trades. 

Is everyone being cheap or are the players just holding out for more.

Boras is holding up the market with the next 4 players.   Snell asking for over $200m, Bellinger over $200m, Chapman over $150m, etc....no teams want to pay those prices, so Boras will sit on them until someone meets his demands.   Frankly I think teams are sick of being bullied so they just aren't going to budge.

Teams with assets to trade are either asking to much, or teams not willing to meet the price point - because there are still top players available that only cost $.   Basically a giant staring contest to see who blinks first.

[jay87shot]

2 hours ago, Underachiever said:

Can anyone smarter than me talk about the Hicks contract? Starter? $44 million? For a guy who has started 8 games in his career? I don't get it. I guess because all I saw at STL was a max velocity guy, I never thought of him as a starter.

It's all about the stuff, he gets ground balls and has the heater to strikeout guys. As a reliever I would guess he gets 3/30+ so an extra year to be a starter isn't to crazy. I read a report that they might piggyback him with another guy or maybe move him to the bullpen when Robbie Ray comes back. Essential they are going to limit his workload as much as possible. They could have a crazy good rotation at the end of the year with Webb, Ray, Hicks, Harrison, among others and prospects or everyone could be hurt or hit an innings limit.

[DR28]

On 1/15/2024 at 8:49 AM, jay87shot said:

Can anyone speculate why the offseason is going so slow? We are half way through January and it seems like only 1/2 the free agents have signed and there have only been a handful of meaningful trades. 

Is everyone being cheap or are the players just holding out for more.

Because Boras is an *******... It's all his fault.

[Fear The Chorizo]

On 1/15/2024 at 9:31 AM, BlazingGunz said:

Boras is holding up the market with the next 4 players.   Snell asking for over $200m, Bellinger over $200m, Chapman over $150m, etc....no teams want to pay those prices, so Boras will sit on them until someone meets his demands.   Frankly I think teams are sick of being bullied so they just aren't going to budge.

Teams with assets to trade are either asking to much, or teams not willing to meet the price point - because there are still top players available that only cost $.   Basically a giant staring contest to see who blinks first.

The issue is, financially with the current TV deal landscape and limited revenue sharing, there are a select few "haves" and a whole bunch of "have nots" this offseason in terms of $$ to blow on premium free agents.  When those "have" teams have their rosters largely completed (see Dodgers and Yankees, Phillies, Braves), there aren't a ton of other clubs looking to spend $200M+ on those FAs - meanwhile the mid-tier FAs want to wait until the more premium players at their positions ink fresh deals to also use them as comparables to bump up their contracts, too.

Right now I think Boras is trying to sell all of his veteran FAs to the Cubs and Giants to sign, and they're looking at him like "we kind of want to just throw $100+ M to Hader if he'll sign with us instead and then be left alone at this point."  2/3 of the MLB organizations probably won't even answer a call from Boras based on how he tries to leverage all of them against each other, so we're firmly entrenched in the waiting game for no good reason.

[Thurston Fluff]

On 1/15/2024 at 8:55 AM, Underachiever said:

Can anyone smarter than me talk about the Hicks contract? Starter? $44 million? For a guy who has started 8 games in his career? I don't get it. I guess because all I saw at STL was a max velocity guy, I never thought of him as a starter.

There have been a few good possibilities outlined by others but I wonder if more teams aren't realizing they can get close to the same production out of younger players. Essentially more teams are starting to mimic the Rays, Brewers. You don't need a roster of super stars to make the playoffs now and once there it's a crap shoot. Why pay more when less will do?

[tmwiese55]

7 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

There have been a few good possibilities outlined by others but I wonder if more teams aren't realizing they can get close to the same production out of younger players. Essentially more teams are starting to mimic the Rays, Brewers. You don't need a roster of super stars to make the playoffs now and once there it's a crap shoot. Why pay more when less will do?

Right.  And this year's class after Ohtani (and I guess the Japanese P) is weak so what you said really comes in to play.   You can likely get Chapman level hitting from a guy coming up out of AAA for 600K.   Meanwhile the players/agents are pushing for their guys lottery ticket payout so there is a big disparity.   Seems like the offseason has gotten slower and moved back for a while already, but throw in that these guys aren't that good while demanding their big payday and here we are.   Only about a month to ST so things will have to get done soon 

[Samurai Bucky]

On 1/15/2024 at 8:49 AM, jay87shot said:

Can anyone speculate why the offseason is going so slow? We are half way through January and it seems like only 1/2 the free agents have signed and there have only been a handful of meaningful trades. 

Is everyone being cheap or are the players just holding out for more.

Isn't it obvious?  Mark A actually has control of almost every team in MLB.  Since he is so cheap, nobody is spending frivolously.  

or...

As other people have mentioned, the financial aspect of baseball isn't as cut and dry as the lay person thinks it is.

[CheezWizHed]

Didn't this happen last year too?  We got a few weeks from pitchers and catchers reporting and a few big remained unsigned.  So a bunch of the middling FAs finally inked deals when people got tired of waiting and feared the music would stop without them having a seat... then the final big name FAs signed a week before or a week after ST started. 

[TURBO]

22 hours ago, Samurai Bucky said:

Isn't it obvious?  Mark A actually has control of almost every team in MLB.  Since he is so cheap, nobody is spending frivolously.  

or...

As other people have mentioned, the financial aspect of baseball isn't as cut and dry as the lay person thinks it is.

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

At this point, I'm guessing Boras' caller ID is is 99% outgoing calls he makes to different GMs/owners leaving voicemails and repeating the initial offers he expects players to sign for that every team has balked at, and 1% from his clients calling him asking if he's heard anything back from any teams.  

[wibadgers23]

 

[patrickgpe]

I can only imagine what Devin Williams will get once he hits FA. 

[nate82]

8 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

 

That is way too much for a reliever especially one who is best when they are only used for an inning max.  I know Hader has said he would be open to pitching more after signing his deal but even at 2 innings that is a lot of money to be paying someone to only pitch 1 or 2 innings max. 

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

 

Congrats to Josh, well deserved.

Even with a stinker of a 2022, and missing a the first couple months of 2017, he is far and away the best reliever in MLB since his debut (min. 250 IP)...

60 ERA- (1st) | 64 FIP- (3rd) | 186 K%+ (1st) | 63 AVG+ (1st) | 12.8 rWAR (1st) | 11.3 fWAR (1st) | +15.40 WPA (1st)

So the reliever who strikes out the most guys and is the hardest to get a hit or score a run off of over the last seven seasons. Hader's 15.40 WPA over that stretch was actually 5th among all pitchers with only Scherzer, Verlander, Cole and deGrom topping his mark.

 

[tmwiese55]

Yes of course a lot for a reliever but he has fairly clearly been the best one the last chunk of years.    Fairly surprised with how nuts LAD have gone seeming doing all they can to lock in a couple WSs that they didn't beat this offer since BP has been their only weakness since Jansen fell off. 

[Brewcrew82]

So the Astros ended up loaning him to us and the Padres for 8 years. 

[Brewcrew82]

32 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Congrats to Josh, well deserved.

Even with a stinker of a 2022, and missing a the first couple months of 2017, he is far and away the best reliever in MLB since his debut (min. 250 IP)...

60 ERA- (1st) | 64 FIP- (3rd) | 186 K%+ (1st) | 63 AVG+ (1st) | 12.8 rWAR (1st) | 11.3 fWAR (1st) | +15.40 WPA (1st)

So the reliever who strikes out the most guys and is the hardest to get a hit or score a run off of over the last seven seasons. Hader's 15.40 WPA over that stretch was actually 4th among all pitchers with only Scherzer, Verlander, Cole and deGrom topping his mark.

 

Not able to look up the numbers right now, but how about since 2020. I’d bet Devin is neck and neck with him. I know he’s beats him in ERA as Devin has the lowest career ERA in the live ball era.

[sveumrules]

15 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Not able to look up the numbers right now, but how about since 2020. I’d bet Devin is neck and neck with him. I know he’s beats him in ERA as Devin has the lowest career ERA in the live ball era.

Yeah, if you narrow it down to 2020-23 (min 150 IP) Devin is pretty much tops across the board...

42 ERA- (1st) | 53 FIP- (2nd) | 177 K%+ (2nd) | 60 AVG+ (1st) | 8.1 rWAR (1st) | 6.8 fWAR (1st) | +12.24 WPA (1st)

Only guy better than him in FIP- and K%+ is Edwin Diaz at 43 and 185.

From 2020-23 Hader comes in at 63 ERA- (10th) | 64 FIP- (9th) | 174 K%+ (3rd) | 68 AVG+ (2nd) | 5.7 rWAR (3rd) | 5.3 fWAR (7th) | +7.52 WPA (3rd)

[torts]

58 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

So the Astros ended up loaning him to us and the Padres for 8 years. 

We got the best part of that loan

[stalton]

Hader will be 35 when his contract finishes. I have to imagine that this is his only big payday. 

[tmwiese55]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Yeah, if you narrow it down to 2020-23 (min 150 IP) Devin is pretty much tops across the board...

42 ERA- (1st) | 53 FIP- (2nd) | 177 K%+ (2nd) | 60 AVG+ (1st) | 8.1 rWAR (1st) | 6.8 fWAR (1st) | +12.24 WPA (1st)

Only guy better than him in FIP- and K%+ is Edwin Diaz at 43 and 185.

From 2020-23 Hader comes in at 63 ERA- (10th) | 64 FIP- (9th) | 174 K%+ (3rd) | 68 AVG+ (2nd) | 5.7 rWAR (3rd) | 5.3 fWAR (7th) | +7.52 WPA (3rd)

I know this is generally dumb because results are results, and you can't just take out the worst games of everyone.   But if you take out that what 5ish week stretch from Hader in 2022 before and right after the trade he probably moves drastically up those lists.  That was a complete blip on the radar for some unknown reason, I'd assume pitch tipping or something, then he got it fixed and went right back to complete domination. I'm just saying that monthish stretch was fluky.  And it was so drastically bad due to whatever was going on that it hurt his number moreso than when guys just have 2-3 bad games here or there. It wasn't just bad luck of a 2 or 3 run homer at a bad time in games close together like is normal so it inflated numbers more.

Good for him.  And as much as its too much for a closer in general, I would oddly also view it some of the safest money spent this offseason. Basically barring injury you have extreme confidence he's going to be very good for the next few years, you're just paying him a bit too much. And 5 years doesn't have that massive backend drag like most of these 7//8+ year deals for hitters or starting pitchers.   And think of the contracts guys like Jansen, Kimbrell, types have gotten the last few years in spite of being shaky for years now.  He's a better deal than them. 

Bit surprising Houston did this as a team that has let so many of their guys go rather than pay.