Brewers and Chourio: Heyman reports 8 years, $80 million + 2 club option years

[DR28]

Jackson has to be our OD 2024 CF? Why the hell would we sign him to this deal, to have him play 2024 in Nashville??????

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Jackson has to be our OD 2024 CF? Why the hell would we sign him to this deal, to have him play 2024 in Nashville??????

I mean what's the point of publicly guaranteeing a currently 19 year old as your CF? Yes he very likely will be the starting CF because there's zero incentive to start him in AAA, but if he is awful in ST then you've put yourself in a tough spot if you already publicly guaranteed him as starting CF.

[Outlander]

I think competition is good. If not traded I would love for Frelick/Wiemer/Mitchell continue to get better and show the Brewers they deserve to start.

[owbc]

4 minutes ago, Outlander said:

I think competition is good. If not traded I would love for Frelick/Wiemer/Mitchell continue to get better and show the Brewers they deserve to start.

Exactly, they are just keeping open the possibility that he gets outplayed in spring training and there's no reason to put unneeded pressure on him to immediately live up to the contract. 

Realistically, the odds are >90% that he'll be in the lineup on Opening Day.

[SRB]

He'll definitely be in the majors at some point in 2024, but I don't see why this deal makes it any more likely that he's the opening day CF. They had an opportunity to lock him up for a longterm deal that he probably wouldn't have wanted to negotiate during the season.

I wouldn't rush him for no reason. Seems like he should start at AAA and play his way up.

[brewerfan82]

I agree that they shouldn't rush him if he's clearly not ready. That said, the contract certainly removes service time manipulation as a reason to keep him down, while at the same time increasing the temptation to start him immediately to try to earn the rookie of the year related compensation since he's almost certainly coming up at some point this year now anyways and bringing him up later doesn't add any extra control at this point.

How much incentive that is/should be for starting him right away is debatable, but the contract certainly adds reason to move him onto the major league roster sooner than if the contract wasn't given to him.

[brewcrewdue80]

Starting him OD allows him to accumulate numbers towards RoY come seasons end.  

I seen a small tidbit that his AAA starts, Mitchell still worked CF and Chourio was a corner OF.  Chourio I guess also exclaimed by somebody, SS is his favorite position to play.  Reverse Yount career forthcoming?  

Put lightly- year 7(last arb) was probably exceeding 23M. 1 FA year at that is probably exceeding 35M.  The options at 25M (below Yelich 26M)  vs 35+ should mean this Chourio career will last 10years while saving over 60? M and spread out lower denominations. No super 2/team control management needed.  

How much WAR for his career would he need to Accomplish 142M value?  

Is it like 6M per?  23WAR? 5? 26.5?  That's not even a 3WAR avg per year.  No Brainer, he's going put up 3+ this year by 550PAs.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

9 hours ago, SRB said:

He'll definitely be in the majors at some point in 2024, but I don't see why this deal makes it any more likely that he's the opening day CF. They had an opportunity to lock him up for a longterm deal that he probably wouldn't have wanted to negotiate during the season.

I wouldn't rush him for no reason. Seems like he should start at AAA and play his way up.

It makes him exponentially more likely to be on the OD roster. Who are we kidding here?

He's currently their 2nd highest paid player and there's also the potential draft pick compensation for the ROTY award he'll be one of the top NL favorites for.

Without the deal he'd be a top 5 bat in MLB camp, and that's being conservative. But the team of course would have manipulated service time and kept him down. But with this deal signed and guaranteed there's no reason not to bring him to Milwaukee as one of the team's best hitters.

[Team Canada]

5 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

He's currently their 2nd highest paid player

Well, sort of, but I think it's more accurate to go year by year, not total financial outlay. He's far from the 2nd highest played for this year, which is what matters in constructing this year's roster. The fact that he'll make 80-140M over the life of the contract is not justification for him starting on OD.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think Chourio is on the OD roster unless he gets injured in Spring Training, or has a terrible spring.  And yeah, he's far from the 2nd highest paid player for 2024 - the significant chunk of the ~$80M guaranteed in the contract he just signed will get paid out in years 5-8 of that deal, until then he's likely making little more than he would otherwise have in pre- and early arbitration years on an annual basis.

Specific annual cost details haven't really been released yet where sites like Spottrac can even lay out the exact dollar amounts Chourio will make each season.  

[SRB]

5 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

It makes him exponentially more likely to be on the OD roster. Who are we kidding here?

He's currently their 2nd highest paid player and there's also the potential draft pick compensation for the ROTY award he'll be one of the top NL favorites for.

Without the deal he'd be a top 5 bat in MLB camp, and that's being conservative. But the team of course would have manipulated service time and kept him down. But with this deal signed and guaranteed there's no reason not to bring him to Milwaukee as one of the team's best hitters.

I mean, if you are already assuming he is a top 5 bat on the team, then yes obviously he'll be up. But I doubt they want to rush him when he has barely played at AAA and we have plenty of CF options.

The RoY angle is a good point though that I hadn't though of, and is a strong incentive to promote him early in the season at the latest unless he's really floundering at AAA.

[brewcrewdue80]

OD makes more sense than not. Let him face ML SP right away. Holds his own, he's well on his way towards that Roy.  Doesn't get off to a good start- you option him briefly before recalling him.  Wiemer could use some time in AAA rewinding some of that clock. Or there's Mitchell who gained days in 2022 Sept and while injured.  Chourio's team control is fully controlled now. They can work some of the others back that honestly deserve some time in AAA working on their game.

 

[Matt Breen]

It's going to be fun. I just hope fans and the organization is patient with him. There's bound to be some adjustment time in there. 

[Playing Catch]

I don't know that I care to argue about it, but I only see 3 guys that are clearly better hitters than Chourio:  Yelich, Contreras, and Adames.

After those three, if I was asked to predict final season batting lines, I'm not sure that I wouldn't predict Chourio to have a better line than any other hitter on the roster. Currently, Steamer has him at 7, and interestingly puts Black at 3. Being that projections for prospects are always "depressed," I would order them as follows...

Contreras
Yelich
Adames
Frelick
Chourio

I think that while it's wise to be patient with prospects, and also recognize they could bust, I'm not sure that's what a Vegas oddsmaker would predict.

[TURBO]

6 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

I don't know that I care to argue about it, but I only see 3 guys that are clearly better hitters than Chourio:  Yelich, Contreras, and Adames.

After those three, if I was asked to predict final season batting lines, I'm not sure that I wouldn't predict Chourio to have a better line than any other hitter on the roster. Currently, Steamer has him at 7, and interestingly puts Black at 3. Being that projections for prospects are always "depressed," I would order them as follows...

Contreras
Yelich
Adames
Frelick
Chourio

I think that while it's wise to be patient with prospects, and also recognize they could bust, I'm not sure that's what a Vegas oddsmaker would predict.

The only way I'd rank Adames above Chourio as a top hitter on the team is if Adames has a hell of a lot better year this year than his last two.  I'm putting Chourio as our #3 best hitter behind Contreras and Yelich, and I'm not even sure he should be behind Yelich.

I'd even go as far as to say Black will be a better hitter than Adames this year, dropping Adames to our 5th best hitter.

[Playing Catch]

If anything, this exercise merely highlights how meager the current lineup is. Uff da.

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

If anything, this exercise merely highlights how meager the current lineup is. Uff da.

Current lineup is a free agent 1B away from being cromulent (2024 Steamer projections)...

Yelich (116 wRC+)
Chourio (93 wRC+)
Contreras (120 wRC+)
Hoskins (116 wRC+)
Adames (103 wRC+)
Black (104 wRC+)
Frelick (103 wRC+)
Taylor (95 wRC+)
Turang (88 wRC+)

[monty57]

3 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Current lineup is a free agent 1B away from being cromulent (2024 Steamer projections)...

Yelich (116 wRC+)
Chourio (93 wRC+)
Contreras (120 wRC+)
Hoskins (116 wRC+)
Adames (103 wRC+)
Black (104 wRC+)
Frelick (103 wRC+)
Taylor (95 wRC+)
Turang (88 wRC+)

I was thinking that same thing. Good to see the projections so high on Black's bat as a rookie. If he can be an above-average MLB hitter at 3B, my dream scenario where the team signs Hoskins and trades Burnes for a young SP could keep us in playoff contention during our "retooling." c

To the question on whether Chourio starts in AAA or MLB, I would be shocked if they put him in AAA. This signing is mainly a baseball move, but it is also a marketing opportunity. Signing him to this extension and then starting him in AAA would be a bad look to the fanbase. But mainly, he's the best talent we've got, his service time is now set, and we could get a draft pick, so he'll be on the Brewers from day one.

[tmwiese55]

Yea it wouldn't surprise me if he struggles this year, especially right away if he's up on OD.  But by struggle I still assume around .700 as opposed to a Turang/Weimer type struggle.    On a team with a good offense you could easily argue to not bring him up or that type of production isn't good enough.  but considering we have like two guys you have confidence in having above a low 700s OPS there's probably no reason not to give him a shot right away (assuming he doesn't really struggle in spring training). 

[homer]

24 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Yea it wouldn't surprise me if he struggles this year, especially right away if he's up on OD.  But by struggle I still assume around .700 as opposed to a Turang/Weimer type struggle.    On a team with a good offense you could easily argue to not bring him up or that type of production isn't good enough.  but considering we have like two guys you have confidence in having above a low 700s OPS there's probably no reason not to give him a shot right away (assuming he doesn't really struggle in spring training). 

I think 700 OPS is a solid expectation. Above that? Yay! Below that? Meh. Steamer projects a 720 OPS.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

4 hours ago, Team Canada said:

Well, sort of, but I think it's more accurate to go year by year, not total financial outlay. He's far from the 2nd highest played for this year, which is what matters in constructing this year's roster. The fact that he'll make 80-140M over the life of the contract is not justification for him starting on OD.

Do we have a breakdown of the contract? I was only factoring the guaranteed portion which is 8/80. If it's paid out annually at $10 million per year, he  would indeed be the Brewers current 2nd highest paid player pending arbitration for players like Burnes and Adames who may or may not be traded. The only player on the books for the Brewers above $10 million annually is Yelich at $22M.

So yeah, aside from some really backloaded structure, which would be odd for Chourio to accept, he's set to be the 2nd highest player on the team right now. Burnes and Adames are projected to surpass 10M if they're retained. But even then Chourio would be 4th.

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Do we have a breakdown of the contract? I was only factoring the guaranteed portion which is 8/80. If it's paid out annually at $10 million per year, he  would indeed be the Brewers current 2nd highest paid player pending arbitration for players like Burnes and Adames who may or may not be traded. The only player on the books for the Brewers above $10 million annually is Yelich at $22M.

So yeah, aside from some really backloaded structure, which would be odd for Chourio to accept, he's set to be the 2nd highest player on the team right now. Burnes and Adames are projected to surpass 10M if they're retained. But even then Chourio would be 4th.

Pretty rare for contract extensions to pre-Arby players to be split evenly. They typically follow an increasing yearly structure...

Wander Franco
1, 2, 2, 8, 15, 22, 25x5 years

Luis Robert
1.5, 3.5, 6, 9.5, 12.5, 15

Corbin Carroll
1, 3, 5, 10, 10, 12, 14, 28x2 years

Ronald Acuna
1, 1, 5, 15, 17x4 years

[brewerfan82]

10 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Do we have a breakdown of the contract?

 

Taken from https://apnews.com/article/chourio-brewers-contract-dc78fbd32462a4ae7256454988ee7f5c:

Quote

He gets a $2 million signing bonus and salaries of $2 million in 2024, $4 million in 2025, $7 million in 2026, $8 million in 2027, $9 million in 2028, $15 million in 2029, $16 million in 2030 and $17 million in 2031. Milwaukee has $25 million options for 2031 and ’32, each with a $2 million buyout. He has escalators for the final three years based on MVP voting.

 

[Brewcrew82]

This is a pretty nice list....https://www.ballysports.com/article/clpsp6wt9000btl0ib0v8oqaa

Though, I agree I'd be content with progression th/o the season and anything above the .700 OPS mark. It's hard to play MLB at 20 years old. 

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Thanks @brewerfan82 and @sveumrules 

Looks like Jackson will only be around the 9th-11th highest paid player on the team in 2024