Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes for INF Joey Ortiz, LHP DL Hall and 2024 Competitive Balance Pick

[Oxy]

2 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

A lot of middle middle location from Burnes in his first inning. He has not performed well on Opening Days.

Brewers win the trade.

This aged poorly. 1 H 0 BBs 11Ks. Yikes.

[brewcrewdue80]

Burnes is winning the Cy Young. Last season was a fluke with Contreras

[Frisbee Slider]

1 hour ago, Oxy said:

This aged poorly. 1 H 0 BBs 11Ks. Yikes.

He did have a lot of middle middle location, though. At least, in the early innings that I was paying attention to.
 

[jerichoholicninja]

He faced the AAAngels. Many pitchers could roll through that lineup.

[Frisbee Slider]

Burnes: 2.61 ERA and 3.69 FIP. 1.3 HR/9 (already allowed 6 HR)

Strikeouts are down but obviously a good start to season. Took the loss against NYY at home, yesterday.

Perhaps favorable matchups, so far:

- KC twice

- OAK

- LAA

- MIL

-BOS

- NYY

[kestrel79]

We'll see how he does for them in the Playoffs. Can he can show up and pitch as their ace when it counts?

[umphrey]

Burnes is a great pitcher. I hope he does well. I don’t think anyone wanted to trade him because they thought he was bad. I just look at our side of the trade and hope we got players back in Hall and Ortiz. I think it’s a bad thing if the brewers trade away a guy and he busts, it’s better for us in future trades if the other team isnt getting screwed on a regular basis. 

[nate82]

12 minutes ago, umphrey said:

think it’s a bad thing if the brewers trade away a guy and he busts, it’s better for us in future trades if the other team isnt getting screwed on a regular basis. 

I don't think other teams really care about what they received in return production from another team.  It is on the team acquiring the players to do their due diligence on the player.  It is not like the Brewers traded Burnes and then the next day he needed TJ surgery and the Brewers knew about it but kept it secret. 

If the getting screwed part were true then the Brewers wouldn't have traded with the Orioles after they traded for Schoop in 2018.  The same with the Orioles here as they didn't receive anyone that contributed to their team in that trade.  Why trade for Burnes when the Schoop trade was awful for them?

[gregmag]

I'm a huge fan of this trade for the familiar reasons: We get six years of Ortiz and Hall for one year of Burnes.

However, I think those of us who took that view in the offseason assumed that 2024 would be a year when Burnes wasn't putting us over the top.  As good as the team has been, that may not end up being right.

So -- if we're focusing on this year, would you undo the trade now?  Would you take Burnes / some guy (Monasterio?  Dunn?) at 3b over random dudes (Ross, Myers) in the rotation / Ortiz?  On one hand, I think it's a closer question than offseason critics of the trade ever imagined.  On the other hand, I think we'd be better right now with Burnes than Ortiz.  The really interesting question is: How much better?  Would our chances in 2024 of winning the division, or a playoff series, or the World Series be improved enough with Burnes to justify losing him for nothing after the season, rather than getting six years of Hall and Ortiz, including what Ortiz is contributing now?  (The comp pick is basically a wash.)  It's obviously a hard question empirically.  I say no, but I could very well be wrong.

[brewerfan82]

I suspect, even though the Hoskins signing occurred before the Burnes trade, that the FO knew they were going to trade Burnes and that allowed for some financial flexibility to offer Hoskins his deal. So it could very well be that you'd be losing both Ortiz AND Hoskins on offense if you undo that trade. At that point it starts getting pretty difficult to "unpull" the trigger on that deal. Now hopefully Hall comes back strong at some point and really nullifies the conversation!

[Team Canada]

45 minutes ago, gregmag said:

So -- if we're focusing on this year, would you undo the trade now?  Would you take Burnes / some guy (Monasterio?  Dunn?) at 3b over random dudes (Ross, Myers) in the rotation / Ortiz?  On one hand, I think it's a closer question than offseason critics of the trade ever imagined.  On the other hand, I think we'd be better right now with Burnes than Ortiz.  The really interesting question is: How much better?  Would our chances in 2024 of winning the division, or a playoff series, or the World Series be improved enough with Burnes to justify losing him for nothing after the season, rather than getting six years of Hall and Ortiz, including what Ortiz is contributing now?  (The comp pick is basically a wash.)  It's obviously a hard question empirically.  I say no, but I could very well be wrong.

Ortiz has been such a key part of this revamped offense it's hard for me to prefer Burnes. It's tempting to say that the whole offense is so much better that we would benefit more from adding Burnes than be hurt by losing Ortiz, but I'm not convinced.

I think where I land (as of right now) is over the season I'd rather have Ortiz. In a playoff series, probably give me Burnes.

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

I think where I land (as of right now) is over the season I'd rather have Ortiz. In a playoff series, probably give me Burnes.

Feel like this perfectly nails how I feel about it. We can scrape by in the regular season with so-so starting pitching. In the playoffs is where losing a guy like Burnes would really hurt.

[Frisbee Slider]

Burnes has 5.75 ERA over last seven starts. Season ERA: 3.28

https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/sports/orioles-mlb/orioles-astros-corbin-burnes-haircut-TKPL6C2ZZFHYHJQHLXH7AIFYZM/

[Underachiever]

On 6/3/2024 at 1:25 PM, wiguy94 said:

 In the playoffs is where losing a guy like Burnes would really hurt.

Would it hurt more than giving up three homers in four innings after getting staked to a 3-0 lead? Cuz that hurt.

[Scooterfletcher]

I’m pumped about Rea in the playoffs.  Guy will be a stud !

[igor67]

There is a decent chance we got Burnes best years already at this point. Not saying he's going to be mediocre or anything, but our 3 Aces period may end up looking more like Oakland's where they had the good run for a few years and outside of that the pitchers continues to be effective in different locations but not replicating that peak. Instead of the Braves.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Underachiever said:

Would it hurt more than giving up three homers in four innings after getting staked to a 3-0 lead? Cuz that hurt.

Burnes has a 2.84 career playoff ERA, so yeah losing an arm like him absolutely hurts a playoff rotation. Weird comment to go after from 3 months ago

[Playing Catch]

I really like gregmag's question, it's fun to consider.

The advantages of having Burnes are clear. The advantages of having Ortiz are trickier.

Two of the primary drivers of the Brewers team success this year is team defense, and being able to extend rallies with 2-out hits, often singles. Both of these are directly attributable to Ortiz's contributions. Having solid ABs, 1-9, makes it so much tougher for a pitcher to navigate.

[HarveysWBs]

51 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Burnes has a 2.84 career playoff ERA, so yeah losing an arm like him absolutely hurts a playoff rotation. Weird comment to go after from 3 months ago

I get this take, but we’re also talking about 19 playoff innings here, half of which was in relief in 2018 (where he was largely spectacular). The question raised is not entirely a nothing burger. He struggled mightily last year in his four inning postseason start, which contributed quite a bit to the quick exit from the playoffs (and probably his eventual exit from the roster). His strikeouts are down a little this year, and his overall performance is on a bit of a glide path (to be expected perhaps as he nears 30, and how outstanding he was for the last three years). And if his 19 postseason innings are significant, it is fair to wonder what his last 20 innings pitched of this season (in which he has given up 20 earned runs) might mean for how he will end the year.

Is this some motivated reasoning by a Brewers fan who wants to feel his team won the trade by exiting their Burnes shares at as close to the peak of value as can be expected? Yeah, there is, speaking only for myself. But biased or not, I think there’s at least a little bit of smoke here, and I’d be a tad nervous as a Baltimore fan.

[Frisbee Slider]

It’s possible Ortiz has more WAR in 2024 than Burnes.

[sveumrules]

21 Burnes (167 IP)
153 K%+ | 58 BB%+ | 31 HR9+
84 AVG+ | 58 ERA- | 38 FIP-

22 Burnes (202 IP)
135 K%+ | 77 BB%+ | 93 HR9+
81 AVG+ | 72 ERA- | 78 FIP-

23 Burnes (193 IP)
115 K%+ | 97 BB%+ | 83 HR9+
80 AVG+ | 77 ERA- | 86 FIP-

24 Burnes (159 IP)
100 K%+ | 74 BB%+ | 87 HR9+
97 AVG+ | 82 ERA- | 88 FIP-

Obviously 2021 was never going to be any kind of multi season baseline, but the extent to which Corbin’s K rate has regressed to literal average would make me hesitant to dish out the 8/250 Boras will likely be shooting for this winter.

The big jump in AVG+ really caught my eye too. Obviously pitching in front of the Brewers defense with +147 DRS (1st) from 2021-23 is a big difference from pitching  in front of the Orioles with -1 DRS (21st) so far this year, but still pretty concerning either way.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Whichever team shells out $150+ million to sign Burnes in free agency headed to his age 30 season is going to regret it.

Burnes has been good overall this year, but he's scuffling lately and his most dominant period starting came when the Brewers were running out a 6 man rotation.  Not surprising to me that he's not as dominant as innings are piling up in Baltimore since they've had so many other starters go down injured.

Is 150 dominant IP as a starter over a season worth $30+M?  I guess it would be for a handful of teams who have limitless payroll - but 80 percent of mlb teams won't even consider trying to sign Burnes, and frankly it's probably the smart choice if he does wind up signing a 4+ year deal.

 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

21 Burnes (167 IP)
153 K%+ | 58 BB%+ | 31 HR9+
84 AVG+ | 58 ERA- | 38 FIP-

22 Burnes (202 IP)
135 K%+ | 77 BB%+ | 93 HR9+
81 AVG+ | 72 ERA- | 78 FIP-

23 Burnes (193 IP)
115 K%+ | 97 BB%+ | 83 HR9+
80 AVG+ | 77 ERA- | 86 FIP-

24 Burnes (159 IP)
100 K%+ | 74 BB%+ | 87 HR9+
97 AVG+ | 82 ERA- | 88 FIP-

Obviously 2021 never going to be any kind of multi season baseline, but the extent to which Corbin’s K rate has regressed to literal average would make me hesitant to dish out the 8/250 Boras will likely be shooting for this winter.

The big jump in AVG+ really caught my eye too. Obviously pitching in front of the Brewers defense with +147 DRS (1st) from 2021-23 is a big difference from pitching  in front of the Orioles with -1 DRS (21st) so far this year, but still pretty concerning either way.

I think teams will see the increased FB velo (which at 97 MPH is a career high) and have some of their fears be allayed. 

I think the biggest culprit with the K's is teams don't even think about the top of the zone anymore whereas they still did a bit in 2021-2022. His secondary pitches are still all high whiff rate pitches. Cutter whiff rate has curiously declined even though as mentioned he's throwing it as hard as ever. 

[Underachiever]

7 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Burnes has a 2.84 career playoff ERA, so yeah losing an arm like him absolutely hurts a playoff rotation. Weird comment to go after from 3 months ago

Didn’t notice the date; this thread was at the top of the feed. Not chasing you in particular. More just complaining about Burnes’ start in the playoffs last year. Needed him to pitch like an ace, and he didn’t. Still ticks me off. Onward. 

[kestrel79]

On 8/24/2024 at 10:44 AM, Fear The Chorizo said:

Whichever team shells out $150+ million to sign Burnes in free agency headed to his age 30 season is going to regret it.

Burnes has been good overall this year, but he's scuffling lately and his most dominant period starting came when the Brewers were running out a 6 man rotation.  Not surprising to me that he's not as dominant as innings are piling up in Baltimore since they've had so many other starters go down injured.

Is 150 dominant IP as a starter over a season worth $30+M?  I guess it would be for a handful of teams who have limitless payroll - but 80 percent of mlb teams won't even consider trying to sign Burnes, and frankly it's probably the smart choice if he does wind up signing a 4+ year deal.

 

Someone will sign him for big money.

I think it's only a matter of time before he breaks down too. I think he'll end up like Prince where he never was hurt much in his younger years, and eventually it catches up with him in the back half of his career after signing the big deal. I can't imagine throwing upper 90's cutters is good on your arm.