2024 Divisional Rivals Thread

[Vgmastr]

Cubs/Cardinals delayed by rain for 2.5 hours, first pitch scheduled for 8:40.  Now let's hope for 15 innings so the Cubs don't get into Milwaukee until about 3am for a day game tomorrow.

[Brian]

1 hour ago, Vgmastr said:

Cubs/Cardinals delayed by rain for 2.5 hours, first pitch scheduled for 8:40.  Now let's hope for 15 innings so the Cubs don't get into Milwaukee until about 3am for a day game tomorrow.

And they burn up all there relievers. 

[Underachiever]

2 hours ago, Brian said:

And they burn up all there relievers. 

They’ll get to the hotel about 3am

[sveumrules]

With a big four gamer against the Cubs incoming and the season about a third of the way played, now seems like as good a time as any to take stock of the division...

MIL: 30-22 | WinDiv: 49.7% (FG) | 36.6% (BPro)

Started (9-3)
135 wRC+ (2nd) | SP: 1.4 rWAR (6th) | RP: +0.39 WPA (9th)

Since (21-19)
109 wRC+ (7th) | SP: 2.1 rWAR (21st) | RP: +4.00 WPA (1st)

Summary: Offense has predictably cooled from their unsustainable early pace, though they have still been healthily above average the last 40 games despite missing Yelich & Hoskins for chunks of that time. Starting pitching over the last 40 has probably been closer to what most envisioned coming into the season. Bullpen has been nails all year, but especially over the last 40 where they have ensured the Brewers won most of the games they should have.

CHI: 27-26 | WinDiv: 24.1% (FG) | 37.7% (BPro)

Started (17-9)
112 wRC+ (6th) | SP: 2.7 rWAR (8th) | RP: +1.32 WPA (7th)

Since (10-17)
80 wRC+ (27th) | SP: 3.3 rWAR (7th) | RP: -0.59 WPA (26th)

Summary: Offense and bullpen have collapsed of late, starting pitching has been steady all year. 

STL: 25-26 | WinDiv: 17.4% (FG) | 21.0% (BPro)

Started (15-24)
85 wRC+ (25th) | SP: 1.2 rWAR (25th) | RP: +0.24 WPA (20th)

Since (10-2)
135 wRC+ (2nd) | SP: 0.2 rWAR (28th) | RP: +1.57 WPA (4th)

Summary: Pretty abysmal across the board to start the year, but the offense and bullpen have gone berserk over their recent hot stretch. Rotation has been even worse than ours all year long despite the Cardinals offseason investment. 

PIT: 25-29 | WinDiv: 4.2% (FG) | 1.8% (BPro)

Started (9-2)
120 wRC+ (7th) | SP: 1.0 rWAR (13th) | RP: +2.06 WPA (2nd)

Since (16-27)
79 wRC+ (27th) | SP: 5.0 rWAR (8th) | RP: -2.32 WPA (30th)

Summary: Offense and bullpen have been mirror images from the hot start compared to since then, rotation was already solid then got the Skenes boost.

CIN: 23-30 | WinDiv: 4.6% (FG) | 2.9% (BPro)

Started (14-10)
98 wRC+ (16th) | SP: 1.9 rWAR (13th) | +1.33 WPA (7th)

Since (9-20)
75 wRC+ (30th) | SP: 3.1 rWAR (11th) | RP: -0.19 WPA (23rd)

Summary: Starting pitching has been steady all year, but offense went from average to adios and bullpen has bombed simultaneously.
 

[BallFour]

12 hours ago, sveumrules said:

CIN: 23-30 | WinDiv: 4.6% (FG) | 2.9% (BPro)

Started (14-10)
98 wRC+ (16th) | SP: 1.9 rWAR (13th) | +1.33 WPA (7th)

Since (9-20)
75 wRC+ (30th) | SP: 3.1 rWAR (11th) | RP: -0.19 WPA (23rd)

Summary: Starting pitching has been steady all year, but offense went from average to adios and bullpen has bombed simultaneously.
 

The Reds bullpen has been a disaster for years now. At least it feels that way as a fan of another team in the division. 

[sveumrules]

6 minutes ago, BallFour said:

The Reds bullpen has been a disaster for years now. At least it feels that way as a fan of another team in the division. 

From 2017-22 it pretty much was, they had a 104 ERA- (23rd), 11.0 rWAR (22nd) and +7.42 WPA (18th) over that stretch.

Last year the Reds young bats got most of the credit, but their bullpen was pretty clutch at 89 ERA- (11th), 7.9 rWAR (3rd) and +8.94 WPA (2nd).

The two big guns were Alexis Diaz (67 ERA- | 1.5 rWAR | +4.37 WPA) and Lucas Sims (67 ERA- | 1.8 rWAR | +3.20 WPA) but they’ve both struggled this year with Diaz at a 136 ERA- | -0.33 WPA and Sims at a 104 ERA- | +0.04 WPA so far.

[Frisbee Slider]

7 hours ago, BallFour said:

The Reds bullpen has been a disaster for years now. At least it feels that way as a fan of another team in the division. 

Brent Suter hasn’t even factored into a decision despite pitching 29 IP over 21 appearances. His record is 0-0.

[Frisbee Slider]

Now the Reds have won seven straight. What an interesting month.

[sveumrules]

Reds in 2nd, Pirates in 3rd, Cardinals and Cubs tied for last place.

Glorious sight even if only for a day.

[Playing Catch]

Really, the division is shaping up as most of the pre-season projections projected, other than the Brewers, being on a 96-win pace before any trades, and with a patchwork rotation.

What is the Brewers secret??

[Frisbee Slider]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

What is the Brewers secret??

Chemistry?

[Brewermania101]

I think outside of Peralta,  the starting pitching is pitching above their normal,  As Drew Olson always said "regression to the mean will happen" it's a matter of when, hopefully it will last as long as it can.

[HarryDoyle]

Pirates get Goodrum. 

Pirates Claim Niko Goodrum From Angels - MLB Trade Rumors

I'm putting this one on a tee for you people.😁

[adambr2]

I don't know what thread this should really go in, but I'm going to play devil's advocate and ask this, because I know I'm not the only one who has thought it. 

Is it safe to say that Craig Counsell was not as instrumental to our success as many thought and as national talking heads thought?

In no way am I saying he was a "bad" manager. I'm just questioning whether it seems like he was more part of a bigger successful system, rather than being some creative genius always pulling all the right strings. 

Granted, the season is a long ways from over, but the Cubs have talent, and they should be better than this. We've endured every pitcher injury under the sun, and yet things continue on here in Milwaukee with business as usual. It's no longer particularly early, we're nearly halfway through the season. 

[brewerfan82]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

I'm just questioning whether it seems like he was more part of a bigger successful system, rather than being some creative genius always pulling all the right strings. 

I think this is exactly it. This team keeps proving year after year that they're not dependent on any individual. They lost Derek Johnson, they were fine. They lost David Stearns, they were fine. They lost Craig Counsell, they were fine.

If anything, I think you need to go back to the sale of the team to Mark Attanasio to find a common thread for the success they've had over the past 15ish years. He's created a culture in this organization that didn't exist for a looooong time before he took the reigns. They've had some ups and downs during his ownership, but there has been a whole lot more hope and fun engrained in the team throughout his ownership than existed (or more accurately, didn't exist at all) throughout the 90's and early 2000's. I know there are a lot of people that aren't fans of MA, but he seems to have done a great job filling the front office and coaching staffs with very smart people that have created the successful organization they have today and I'm certainly happy to have him on board!

Addendum:

Just for a little more perspective, I did a comparison of the "Bud Selig Era (1970-1992)", the "Wendy Selig-Prieb Era (1993-2004)" and the "Mark Attanasio Era (2005-present)":

• 1970-1992: 1791 W, 1870 L (.489 W%, 19th best in MLB), 11 seasons .500 or better, 2 division titles (plus two 2nd place finishes), 2 playoff appearances (including a World Series appearance)
• 1993-2004: 825 W, 1051 L (.440 W%, worst in MLB), 0 seasons .500 or better, 0 division titles (highest finish: 3rd place), 0 playoff appearances
• 2005-present: 1575 W, 1470 L (.517 W%, 8th best in MLB), 12 seasons .500 or better, 4 division titles (plus five 2nd place finishes), 7 playoff appearances (including two NLCS appearances)

Life has been much better since Mark took over :)

[Brian]

On 6/9/2024 at 8:58 AM, Playing Catch said:

What is the Brewers secret??

A new manager Pat Murphy and Rickie Weeks bench coach promotion. Which brings the chemistry. 

[Playing Catch]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

Is it safe to say that Craig Counsell was not as instrumental to our success as many thought and as national talking heads thought?

In short, yes.

There were a lot of thoughts that I had during the whole ordeal. My head was telling me that the most likely scenario was that managers, on the whole, don't make much of a difference in terms of in-game decision-making, and winning or losing on any given day, but that the good ones help lead a team through the grind of the season with the way that they respond to players behind the scenes, and how well they jive with the front office.

I figured that Counsell was a good manager because he worked well with the players, kept a good clubhouse culture, and was of like mind with the front office and scouting. But I also felt that Counsell hired Murphy in his first season for a reason, and that Murphy probably had/has many of the same qualities.

However, as it played out, I was worried that I was wrong about all of that. I mean, Jed Hoyer paid A LOT for Counsell. Hoyer knows the business FAR BETTER than I do. But as it's playing out, I'm feeling like my head was right all along.

I had many of the same thoughts with losing Stearns. I felt like the entire Brewers operation has a lot of deliberate redundancy in leadership (and on the field), in order to not suffer big drop-offs when people leave. For all we know, the former Rays executive, Matt Arnold was fundamental in Stearns' success. For all we know, Murphy was fundamental to Counsell's success.

[LouisEly]

10 hours ago, brewerfan82 said:

If anything, I think you need to go back to the sale of the team to Mark Attanasio to find a common thread for the success they've had over the past 15ish years.

Since Attanasio bought the team the Brewers are 4th in the NL and 9th in MLB in total wins.

[tmwiese55]

Good posts.  Yea I think CC is a good manager.  But the driving force behind how MKE has been doing this the last chunk of years is whatever is going on with the pitching lab stuff.    CC seemed to keep a good culture through mass turnover every year, managed the bullpen well, etc but when it comes down to it the key to all this is they turn over pitching a ton every year and keep pumping out results.  I'm sure CC had a hand in that but he's not the main person for it, its a system.  I would assume he's trying to bring as much of that to the Cubs as he can, but stuff like that doesn't happen in a few months. Plus, he's not the 'expert' so to speak on whatever MKE has been doing. 

[Brian]

13 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

In short, yes.

There were a lot of thoughts that I had during the whole ordeal. My head was telling me that the most likely scenario was that managers, on the whole, don't make much of a difference in terms of in-game decision-making, and winning or losing on any given day, but that the good ones help lead a team through the grind of the season with the way that they respond to players behind the scenes, and how well they jive with the front office.

I figured that Counsell was a good manager because he worked well with the players, kept a good clubhouse culture, and was of like mind with the front office and scouting. But I also felt that Counsell hired Murphy in his first season for a reason, and that Murphy probably had/has many of the same qualities.

However, as it played out, I was worried that I was wrong about all of that. I mean, Jed Hoyer paid A LOT for Counsell. Hoyer knows the business FAR BETTER than I do. But as it's playing out, I'm feeling like my head was right all along.

I had many of the same thoughts with losing Stearns. I felt like the entire Brewers operation has a lot of deliberate redundancy in leadership (and on the field), in order to not suffer big drop-offs when people leave. For all we know, the former Rays executive, Matt Arnold was fundamental in Stearns' success. For all we know, Murphy was fundamental to Counsell's success.

Boy you sure covered it all and well.  I think Matt Arnold is triple the GM as Sterns was and Murphy the same over Counsell.

[igor67]

At the moment even the second wild card has this issue, but the record splits are so extreme this year that despite all being under .500 all but 2 NL teams are within 2 games of the 3rd wildcard. The ship has sailed, but that is not the type of playoff race I find terribly interesting.

[mtsportsfan]

1 hour ago, igor67 said:

At the moment even the second wild card has this issue, but the record splits are so extreme this year that despite all being under .500 all but 2 NL teams are within 2 games of the 3rd wildcard. The ship has sailed, but that is not the type of playoff race I find terribly interesting.

I don't know, its not like the NL central teams are ten games under 500. A hot streak can catapult a team to the top , keeps it interesting for me anyhow!

[82brewcrew82]

3 hours ago, mtsportsfan said:

I don't know, its not like the NL central teams are ten games under 500. A hot streak can catapult a team to the top , keeps it interesting for me anyhow!

Going into the Phillies series the Reds were 10 games back and have been playing good baseball.  A loss for The Reds today means they would have made up 2 games in two weeks.  The rest of the standings are very similar to what they were then.  I don't think making up that kind of ground is as easy at it sounds, even if you have a good week.

[KeithStone53151]

I just spent a lot of time getting dumber on the cubs forums. The biggest takeaway is that they all seem to think the cubs are going to be buyers at the deadline. What am I missing? They are ahead of 3 teams in the entire NL...

[TURBO]

19 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I just spent a lot of time getting dumber on the cubs forums. The biggest takeaway is that they all seem to think the cubs are going to be buyers at the deadline. What am I missing? They are ahead of 3 teams in the entire NL...

But, but, they have Craig Counsell...