Would you give William Contreras the Will Smith deal

[Warning Track Power]

10 years $140 million for Will Smith. William Contreras is 26 now. A 10 year deal would take him to his mid-30s. An AAV of $14m a year seems pretty reasonable for a catcher who should just be hitting his prime, plus that bat plays at DH. Comparatively, Smith has a career of .264/.359/.844 in 1994 PA, whereas Contreras has a.276/.353/.818 in 1196 PA.

I know Quero is coming but Contreras is here and has already produced at an all star level. I’d be quite happy with extending Contreras at this level.

I’m curious about what others think of this as a concept. 

[wibadgers23]

Yes, in a heartbeat.

[SF70]

No.

More than half the contract would be for past-prime performance years which this SM team should never do — ever, especially now that they have a prospect-procurement system capable of keeping their farm system strong for years ahead.

[jay87shot]

That's a tough one, if I had a billion dollars and was the owner and gm of the Brewers yes no doubt. However we do have budgets and rationality of staff to take into effect. With Chourio and Yeli long term and will likely have some other young guys to pay as well it makes it tough. I think the worry for me would be the 10 years part, if we could make it like 7/98 I would think that would be a much easier decision. I still say we let this season play out until we have a clearer vision into what Quero is going to be. If Quero is a stud all year (cross my fingers on the injury) I would be swayed towards trading Contreras if Quero is ok-good but not great with the bat I would trade Quero in the offseason.

[Jopal78]

Look at Pudge Rodriguez; he was washed up as a hitter after age 32. Piazza was done behind the plate at 35, DH’d for a year and was out of the game at 36. Buster Posey retired at 34. All three are HoF or likely HoF catchers. 

It would be dumb to sign Contreras, or any  catcher, into their mid-30s. The Dodgers  have the luxury to eat the back end of that Will Smith extension or pay most of his salary in order to trade him to another team.

[sveumrules]

Don’t think they’d need to go all the way up to Fresh Prince length/money to extend William.

Sean Murphy signed for 6/73 heading into his first year of Arby’s and brother Contreras got 5/87.5 as a free agent.

I’d guess something in the range of 6/90 or 7/110 would convince William to forego FA.

[Thurston Fluff]

No to any contracts right now unless it's team friendly and doesn't have a no trade clause. We have one of the better minor league catching prospects in baseball and limited resources. The best route to continued success is versatility. Locking ourselves into long term contracts or no trade clauses hampers more than it helps.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Don’t think they’d need to go all the way up to Fresh Prince length/money to extend William.

Sean Murphy signed for 6/73 heading into his first year of Arby’s and brother Contreras got 5/87.5 as a free agent.

I’d guess something in the range of 6/90 or 7/110 would convince William to forego FA.

Willson Contreras was 30 when he signed his 5 year deal. Murphy was 28 when he signed his six year deal.
A 6 or 7 year deal now would leave Contreras coming out of contract at 33 or 34 having signed away the best earning years of his career for just 15 million AAV. (Realmuto 23 mil. AAV, Salvador Perez 20 mil. AAV, Wilson Contreras 18 mil. AAV)

The Dodgers contract with Smith is unique because he has a guarantee for what is almost certainly the rest of his career, plus its front loaded as he gets 30 mil of the 140 mil up front as a signing bonus. 
 

Like any player,  if the Brewers were willing to pay market rate prices they likely could sign Contreras to an extension tomorrow.
However,  Wm. Contreras has no logical reason to sign an extension like the proposals above. It would be for less AAV than the best catchers in the game get, and would end at the exact time most catchers experience a drop off in play

 

 

 

[MrTPlush]

Absolutely not. 

Someone else can pay him in his 30s.

[sveumrules]

16 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Wm. Contreras has no logical reason to sign an extension like the proposals above. It would be for less AAV than the best catchers in the game get,

Realmuto & Contreras The Elder got those AAVs as free agents. Contreras The Younger has three seasons and 158 games before he reaches free agency.

So the math would come down to take around $100M guaranteed now (which would be a record for a catcher with his service time) or roll the dice on staying healthy and productive for another three years and 158 games with the most he could likely command upon reaching FA being something not too far north of the 5/115 JTR signed for in 2021, maybe 6/150 tops.

[MrTPlush]

47 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Realmuto & Contreras The Elder got those AAVs as free agents. Contreras The Younger has three seasons and 158 games before he reaches free agency.

So the math would come down to take around $100M guaranteed now (which would be a record for a catcher with his service time) or roll the dice on staying healthy and productive for another three years and 158 games with the most he could likely command upon reaching FA being something not too far north of the 5/115 JTR signed for in 2021, maybe 6/150 tops.

Fast forward to his FA and I am guessing baseball inflation would have him at $150mil...minimum. Plus a good $30mil or so through arby. He is going to have one heck of a lengthy resume going into arby. 

If he was going to sign an extension or get offered one...I think that would have happened by now. After 2024 he will already be set for life. The one knock on him before we got him was the fact he had never proven himself over a full season...well, that isn't a concern after 2023. 

Only way it really makes sense for either side is if we give him a giant 8+ year deal. I really don't see him signing a deal to awkwardly hit FA at 32-33 years old. That makes all the sense for the Brewers, none for him. 

[tmwiese55]

I'd need several  years trimmed off that deal to make sense for the Brewers. Which then doesn't make sense for him unless he just happens to be the type who wants to play it safe to lock in money, which I'd doubt he is.   I'd guess the Brewers aren't really even considering this without a really team friendly deal, so good chances they won't even 'insult' him with the offer.  Catchers fall apart quickly so a team like MKE likely aren't looking to be locked into someone's mid 30s. 

If Quero looks good again this year and going forward you'd be better off going for a very early super cheap deal with him when Contreras gets traded, a Freddy Peralta type deal team friendly. 

[wallus]

Nope, unless it is team friendly and includes team options and doesn't include a no trade clause.

[BrewerFan]

7 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Murphy was 28 when he signed his six year deal.
A 6 or 7 year deal now would leave Contreras coming out of contract at 33 or 34 having signed away the best earning years of his career for just 15 million AAV.

Murphy is due to be a FA at 33(Team Option) or 34....for an AAV of 15M a year.

Using him an example of this deal doesn't work is not the strongest argument. He was(and remains) a better catcher, he was a year closer to FA and he signed pretty much exactly the type of deal you're talking about.

And he was proven when he signed that deal. 

The free-agent deals are...not comparable here, so I'm not sure why we're using them. Yes, you will get much more in FA than you will if you have 4 years of team control left. That's about as obvious as it gets. FA contracts become MORE relevant as a premiere player gets a year or two away. Contreras plays a very physically demanding position and is 4 years away still. 

9 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Look at Pudge Rodriguez; he was washed up as a hitter after age 32. Piazza was done behind the plate at 35, DH’d for a year and was out of the game at 36. Buster Posey retired at 34. All three are HoF or likely HoF catchers. 

Pudge was still worth ~6 WAR over the next two seasons. .288/.312/.441 OPS+96 while playing 265 games at 33-34 years old.
Piazza .269/.328/.459 from 36-38, 322 games OPS+ 108
Posey hit .304/.390/.499 with an OPS+ of 140 at age 34

Those are probably not the best examples of how bad the backend looks like as you generally sign a contract like this with the understanding the last 2-3 years aren't going to be the best years. The value comes more from 28-32 range. 

[rickh150]

No.

The 150 mil guaranteed money for 10 years is a deal if he performs on average like he did last year, even if it is for 6 or 7 years. 
Yet, the whole idea of an injury that could change his output or take him from behind the plate would not make it worth it.
We have him for four years with an ironically injured Quero on his heels. No need to extend him beyond 5 or 6 years.

It makes cents for the Dodgers and 10 other teams in baseball, not Brewers.

[Brewcrew82]

Not at that contract...Catchers do not age well. 

I think the deal that makes the most sense for club and player is one that pays him a lot of money now while he's in arbitration and the Brewers are well below their payroll threshold and in exchange the Brewers get a deal that doesn't go into his mid 30s. 

Maybe something like 5 years $80 million, with an option year or two at around $20 mil, heavily front-loaded. 

[Jopal78]

14 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Murphy is due to be a FA at 33(Team Option) or 34....for an AAV of 15M a year.

Using him an example of this deal doesn't work is not the strongest argument. He was(and remains) a better catcher, he was a year closer to FA and he signed pretty much exactly the type of deal you're talking about.

And he was proven when he signed that deal. 

The free-agent deals are...not comparable here, so I'm not sure why we're using them. Yes, you will get much more in FA than you will if you have 4 years of team control left. That's about as obvious as it gets. FA contracts become MORE relevant as a premiere player gets a year or two away. Contreras plays a very physically demanding position and is 4 years away still. 

Pudge was still worth ~6 WAR over the next two seasons. .288/.312/.441 OPS+96 while playing 265 games at 33-34 years old.
Piazza .269/.328/.459 from 36-38, 322 games OPS+ 108
Posey hit .304/.390/.499 with an OPS+ of 140 at age 34

Those are probably not the best examples of how bad the backend looks like as you generally sign a contract like this with the understanding the last 2-3 years aren't going to be the best years. The value comes more from 28-32 range. 

Ok, but you miss the point. At a time when salaries continue to explode,  why would  Contreras sign an extension with Milwaukee giving away his best earning years to make less on average than the top catchers in the game make now?

They play for money; and he’d be making a boneheaded financial decision which neither helps him in the short run or the long run.

 

 

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Ok, but you miss the point. At a time when salaries continue to explode,  why would  Contreras sign an extension with Milwaukee giving away his best earning years to make less on average than the top catchers in the game make now?

Because the only way to get that AAV in free agency is to stay healthy and productive for three more years and 157 more games playing the most dangerous and physically demanding position on the diamond.

Salaries as a whole might be exploding, but how much have catcher salaries exploded specifically and who will reset the market from JTR’s 5/115 between now and the 2027-28 offseason when William hits the open market?

Mauer signed for 8/184 all the way back in 2011, Posey signed for 8/163 back in 2013.

Looks like peak catcher earning power has actually gone down over the last decade regardless of how salaries are rising elsewhere.

[brewcrewdue80]

If Quero continues with IL stints, you might consider it. The more times he injures himself, the more likely his production wanes.  

Extend WC and assume he'll continue being healthy and productive. 

I like the 6/90-110 range. But you all know Quero is a hype prospect for me. That young man needs to get his health game in order. 

[BrewerFan]

13 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Ok, but you miss the point. At a time when salaries continue to explode,  why would  Contreras sign an extension with Milwaukee giving away his best earning years to make less on average than the top catchers in the game make now?

They play for money; and he’d be making a boneheaded financial decision which neither helps him in the short run or the long run.

 

 

I didn't miss any point. You confuse me not agreeing with your point as missing it.

Your point was that...FA catchers are getting paid more. Great. He's not a FA catcher, so that's irrelevant.

What IS relevant is Sean Murphy's contract. Ask him why he made a "boneheaded financial decision," a year closer to Free Agency than Contreras. I'm trying to compare apples to apples...not apples to free agents.

And securing 80-100M dollars...that most definitely "helps him," in both the short term and the long term.

[Jopal78]

On 4/4/2024 at 8:31 AM, sveumrules said:

Because the only way to get that AAV in free agency is to stay healthy and productive for three more years and 157 more games playing the most dangerous and physically demanding position on the diamond.

Salaries as a whole might be exploding, but how much have catcher salaries exploded specifically and who will reset the market from JTR’s 5/115 between now and the 2027-28 offseason when William hits the open market?

Mauer signed for 8/184 all the way back in 2011, Posey signed for 8/163 back in 2013.

Looks like peak catcher earning power has actually gone down over the last decade regardless of how salaries are rising elsewhere.

Salaries overall continue to rise and rise which drags them up across the board. So it’s not really a question of resetting the market at a position. Look at it from the perspective how many 15+ million per year players were there in the majors  5 years ago compared to now?

More importantly, the conviction in one’s ability necessary to even make the majors in the first place means that very few pro ball players are going to doubt themselves enough to take less money than they could likely earn just to be “safe” against injury or underperformance.
 

Consider the Brewers. When was the last time a Milwaukee hitter in the majors did not play out his six years and head to free agency? You probably have to go back a decade or more to Lucroy, Hart etc.  Even pitchers, where the risk of eventual injury is near 100% there have been only two in the last decade in Ashby and Peralta that didn’t play out their six years and become free agents. 

Since the last CBA which increased player compensation there is not much reason for major league players to not go year to year and file for free agency as soon as possible. Yes  there are exceptions to any rule but it doesn’t change the fact players will make more in their career hitting FA as soon as possible. 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

Consider the Brewers. When was the last time a Milwaukee hitter in the majors did not play out his six years and head to free agency? You probably have to go back a decade or more to Lucroy, Hart etc.  Even pitchers, where the risk of eventual injury is near 100% there have been only two in the last decade in Ashby and Peralta that didn’t play out their six years and become free agents. 

Since the last CBA which increased player compensation there is not much reason for major league players to not go year to year and file for free agency as soon as possible. Yes  there are exceptions to any rule but it doesn’t change the fact players will make more in their career hitting FA as soon as possible. 

If you went back a decade or more, there'd be too many players to count who did not play out his six years and head to Free Agency. I'd just off the top of my head mention Keston Hiura who's now in the Minors. 

 

I also highly doubt the very small impact of the increased pay from the last CBA...will every have anything to do with if a player signs a contract for near, or at 9 figures. 

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

Salaries overall continue to rise and rise which drags them up across the board. So it’s not really a question of resetting the market at a position. Look at it from the perspective how many 15+ million per year players were there in the majors  5 years ago compared to now?

There is absolutely a positional component to increased league wide spending, it is not evenly distributed amongst the player pool. Willson Contreras got a lower AAV in 2023 than Yasmani Grandal got in 2020 and only 500K more than Brian McCann got in 2014. 

Of the 96 players making $15M or more this year according to Spotrac, only four are catchers...

SP (34) OF (17) 3B (10) 1B (10) SS (8) DH (6) RP (4) C (4) 2B (3)

Six starting pitchers per team is about 23.1% of the player pool, but 35.4% of the $15M AAVs. Two catchers per team is about 7.7% of the player pool, but only 3.1% of the $15M AAVs.

Cot's has 139 contracts ever signed for $100M or more, only four of those were catchers.

One interesting wrinkle that could be fun to keep an eye on is that that Adley Rutschman (1182 PA | 131 wRC+ | 24.6 CS% | 11.6 WAR) and Cal Raleigh (1151 PA | 106 wRC+ | 27.7 CS% | 8.3 WAR) are both on track to hit free agency at the same time as William (1204 PA | 123 wRC+ | 19.5 CS% | 7.7 WAR) so could be a pretty deep group if everyone keeps on keeping on and no one decides to extend in the interim. 

[Jopal78]

4 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

If you went back a decade or more, there'd be too many players to count who did not play out his six years and head to Free Agency. I'd just off the top of my head mention Keston Hiura who's now in the Minors. 

 

I also highly doubt the very small impact of the increased pay from the last CBA...will every have anything to do with if a player signs a contract for near, or at 9 figures. 

I think you like to argue for arguing’s sake. What does Hiura have  to do with anything? He wasn’t unable to stick in the majors to even acquire the service time necessary to file for free agency.  
 

[nate82]

4 hours ago, sveumrules said:

One interesting wrinkle that could be fun to keep an eye on is that that Adley Rutschman (1182 PA | 131 wRC+ | 24.6 CS% | 11.6 WAR) and Cal Raleigh (1151 PA | 106 wRC+ | 27.7 CS% | 8.3 WAR) are both on track to hit free agency at the same time as William (1204 PA | 123 wRC+ | 19.5 CS% | 7.7 WAR) so could be a pretty deep group if everyone keeps on keeping on and no one decides to extend in the interim. 

I would bet on Rutschman signing an extension.  Probably something higher than what Posey and Mauer got.  With the new Orioles ownership I think this will be something they will push for.  Something around 10/$230mm for Rutschman sounds about right and what I would expect the new ownership group in Baltimore would be willing to do.  I don't think Contreras will get anywhere close to that.  Probably something closer to what his brother signed for would be my guess.

I think Contreras has more to risk by not signing an extension as you can't get injured in a lot of different ways and in far more ways than any other player on the team.  Catchers get injured it happens and their bodies breakdown a lot faster than other positional players.  Catching is far more demanding on the body than playing any other position on the field.  It would be wise for Contreras to at least seek out an extension before he hits FA.