Brewers (Wilson) vs Padres (Mazur): 6/20/24, 8:40pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

[Underachiever]

Bryse had a nice outing against the Reds last time. And if you add up his 11 "starts", the Brewers are 6-5 in those games. Except for the 10-2 Detroit game, Wilson is keeping the Brewers in the game until they can get to the other team's bullpen. 

[treego14]

I think we will fire a deadly laser at Mazur,

Yes, those rays will take down the Padres!

Bryse will put them in a vice!  His pitches will have extra spice!

[willie key]

There are only four national league teams over .500.   And we are 14 games over.  Pretty amazing.   
 

with three wild card teams I would assume that our odds of making the playoffs are pretty damn high.  Even if it’s only June 

[sveumrules]

1 minute ago, willie key said:

There are only four national league teams over .500.   And we are 14 games over.  Pretty amazing.   
 

with three wild card teams I would assume that our odds of making the playoffs are pretty damn high.  Even if it’s only June 

72.2% Win Division & 85.4% Make Playoffs at FanGraphs.

69.6% Win Division & 85.1% Make Playoffs at BPro.

[willie key]

4 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

72.2% Win Division & 85.4% Make Playoffs at FanGraphs.

69.6% Win Division & 85.1% Make Playoffs at BPro.

To be honest.   I’m surprised it isn’t higher than that.   It’s probably because it’s hard to quantify our starting pitching going forward in these stat sites

[sveumrules]

1 minute ago, willie key said:

To be honest.   I’m surprised it isn’t higher than that.   It’s probably because it’s hard to quantify our starting pitching going forward in these stat sites

Yeah, pretty much comes down to the projections believing the Brewers are still due for some pretty serious regression.

Can’t get into the guts on BPro, but FanGraphs thinks the Brewers will score 4.43 R/G (13th) and allow 4.46 R/G (21st) the rest of the way versus actually scoring 4.80 R/G (7th) and actually allowing 3.91 R/G (8th) through their first 74 games.

[Vgmastr]

Baseball Reference has us as 99.5% to make the playoffs and 97.8% to win the division.  They also have us at the fourth highest odds to win the World Series at 12.2% behind only the Dodgers, Yankees and Orioles.

[Team Canada]

18 minutes ago, Vgmastr said:

Baseball Reference has us as 99.5% to make the playoffs and 97.8% to win the division.  They also have us at the fourth highest odds to win the World Series at 12.2% behind only the Dodgers, Yankees and Orioles.

Wait, what? Where are the Phillies?

[CheezWizHed]

29 minutes ago, Vgmastr said:

Baseball Reference has us as 99.5% to make the playoffs and 97.8% to win the division.  They also have us at the fourth highest odds to win the World Series at 12.2% behind only the Dodgers, Yankees and Orioles.

Hmmm. Brewers vs Orioles in the WS.  Game 7 comes down to Cy Young Corbin Burnes pitching against ROY Joey Ortiz in the bottom of the 9th with 2 outs in a tie game.... could be interesting. 

[Vgmastr]

33 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

Wait, what? Where are the Phillies?

Phillies are at 11.3% to win the World Series.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-playoff-odds.shtml

[brewmann04]

did not realize it a 4 game set

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, Vgmastr said:

Baseball Reference has us as 99.5% to make the playoffs and 97.8% to win the division.  They also have us at the fourth highest odds to win the World Series at 12.2% behind only the Dodgers, Yankees and Orioles.

BRef methodology is pretty shoddy...

The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor.

So at this point they are still estimating the team's quality based on games from the end of last season when we had Burnes, Williams, Woodruff made starts down the stretch, Canha, Santana, hot Tyrone, etc.

[tmwiese55]

23 minutes ago, Vgmastr said:

Phillies are at 11.3% to win the World Series.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-playoff-odds.shtml

Really surprising considering difference in rosters, Phi having such a better record, but most importantly that Phi is almost for sure getting 1st rd bye when MKE is likely not. 

[OldHeidelberg]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

Hmmm. Brewers vs Orioles in the WS.  Game 7 comes down to Cy Young Corbin Burnes pitching against ROY Joey Ortiz in the bottom of the 9th with 2 outs in a tie game.... could be interesting. 

I hadn't looked in a while but Burnes really having a nice year. Finally getting the wins and his ERA is 5th best in MLB. His K rate is down again and his bWAR is lowest among the top 10 ERA pitchers though. Still, well on his way to an offseason megadeal. 

Very happy with Joey obviously. 🙂

 

[tmwiese55]

20 minutes ago, OldHeidelberg said:

I hadn't looked in a while but Burnes really having a nice year. Finally getting the wins and his ERA is 5th best in MLB. His K rate is down again and his bWAR is lowest among the top 10 ERA pitchers though. Still, well on his way to an offseason megadeal. 

Very happy with Joey obviously. 🙂

 

It'll be interesting to see who pays up.  Kinda sucks for him that LAD blew their load last year, unless of course they don't care and still get involved.   Other big spenders like NYY, Bos, Phi, NYM, likely not as free spending as normal right now too.  Maybe NYY though would still get involved or Mets owner decides they can't sit idle.  Cubs maybe make most sense?  Maybe Seattle, SD, or SF

[nate82]

1 minute ago, tmwiese55 said:

Maybe NYY though would still get involved or Mets decide they can't sit idle.  Cubs maybe make most sense?  Maybe Seattle, SD, or SF

The Mets are on a 2-3 year rebuild plan.  I don’t think Burnes makes sense for them.  The Giants though I fully expect them to be involved in Burnes.  I think SD would like to but won’t have the resources to do so.  I think it comes down to the Yankees, Giants, Braves, Orioles and Astros for Burnes in FA.  I think the Cubs and Cardinals will try but will get outbid.

[TURBO]

Don't care where he lands as long as it isn't the Cubs or Cardinals.  God, that would be gross.

[BruisedCrew]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Yeah, pretty much comes down to the projections believing the Brewers are still due for some pretty serious regression.

Can’t get into the guts on BPro, but FanGraphs thinks the Brewers will score 4.43 R/G (13th) and allow 4.46 R/G (21st) the rest of the way versus actually scoring 4.80 R/G (7th) and actually allowing 3.91 R/G (8th) through their first 74 games.

On the run scoring, after scoring 87 runs in their unsustainably hot 10-3 start (6.69 RPG) the Brewers have scored 268 in their next 61 games (4.39 RPG).

In June, they have scored 61 runs in 17 games (3.59 RPG).

Given the steady downward trend in scoring over the last two months, a projection of 4.46 RPG the rest of the way doesn’t seem unreasonable.

The pitching has been leading the team for the last few weeks, and apparently the projections don’t expect that to continue. So, they project the Brewers to go about .500 the rest of the way. Unless one of the other teams in the division can put something together, that could easily be good enough to win the division at 88-74. 

[RightFieldCoder]

Are the projections only looking at the pitching? I wonder if they aren't taking into account the defense?

[sveumrules]

18 minutes ago, RightFieldCoder said:

Are the projections only looking at the pitching? I wonder if they aren't taking into account the defense?

Yeah, the defense is included in the projected runs allowed.

One reason I think the Brewers have consistently beat their projections during the Stearns/Arnold era is they excel at both defense and relief pitching, two things the projections regress extra hard because of their inherent volatility.

[nate82]

13 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

One reason I think the Brewers have consistently beat their projections during the Stearns/Arnold era is they excel at both defense and relief pitching, two things the projections regress extra hard because of their inherent volatility.

Is defense really that volatile?  Maybe from one year to the next but I wouldn’t expect it to be volatile in a season.  Maybe from game to game but not over like 80 games.

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

It'll be interesting to see who pays up.  Kinda sucks for him that LAD blew their load last year, unless of course they don't care and still get involved.   Other big spenders like NYY, Bos, Phi, NYM, likely not as free spending as normal right now too.  Maybe NYY though would still get involved or Mets owner decides they can't sit idle.  Cubs maybe make most sense?  Maybe Seattle, SD, or SF

I think the Mets are going to give him a massive deal. Not 300M...unless Cohen just overrules Stearns, but I thought I remember reports it was Yamamoto or bust for them this year and then they were looking forward to this class with Soto...Burnes, Cole has an opt out. That could be interesting based on what he does the rest of this year. 

Spotrac puts him at 7/166. I really think the Brewers would have done that if they could have. That seems ~60-100M short to me over roughly the same number of years, but if you were to get him for 7 and 30 AAV, I think you'll have a healthy market. I'd take Hou, SD, probably LAD out because they just don't need him. ATL is losing Fried(I think he's near as good a bet over the next 5 years or so as anyone) but I don't see them paying market value for a top-of-the-market pitcher...though they have cost certainty nearly everywhere else on their roster. 

NYM, ChC, Boston at some point I'd think would get back in the big spending, and how about staying in the market he's in. Either with the Os or the Nats? Both can spend money, they have a ton of young talent(the Nats are a year or 2 away from really breaking out IMO).  

 

[82brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

On the run scoring, after scoring 87 runs in their unsustainably hot 10-3 start (6.69 RPG) the Brewers have scored 268 in their next 61 games (4.39 RPG).

In June, they have scored 61 runs in 17 games (3.59 RPG).

Given the steady downward trend in scoring over the last two months, a projection of 4.46 RPG the rest of the way doesn’t seem unreasonable.

The pitching has been leading the team for the last few weeks, and apparently the projections don’t expect that to continue. So, they project the Brewers to go about .500 the rest of the way. Unless one of the other teams in the division can put something together, that could easily be good enough to win the division at 88-74. 

I'll take the over at this point.

[tmwiese55]

4 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I think the Mets are going to give him a massive deal. Not 300M...unless Cohen just overrules Stearns, but I thought I remember reports it was Yamamoto or bust for them this year and then they were looking forward to this class with Soto...Burnes, Cole has an opt out. That could be interesting based on what he does the rest of this year. 

Spotrac puts him at 7/166. I really think the Brewers would have done that if they could have. That seems ~60-100M short to me over roughly the same number of years, but if you were to get him for 7 and 30 AAV, I think you'll have a healthy market. I'd take Hou, SD, probably LAD out because they just don't need him. ATL is losing Fried(I think he's near as good a bet over the next 5 years or so as anyone) but I don't see them paying market value for a top-of-the-market pitcher...though they have cost certainty nearly everywhere else on their roster. 

NYM, ChC, Boston at some point I'd think would get back in the big spending, and how about staying in the market he's in. Either with the Os or the Nats? Both can spend money, they have a ton of young talent(the Nats are a year or 2 away from really breaking out IMO).  

 

I'd agree Brewers probably would've been darn close to saying yes to 7/166 if it was on the table before trade.  I'm sure he expects way way more than that though. That seems a very low estimate right now as he's stayed healthy and performed well in a tougher division.

I have a feeling even if general plan for NYM is play it cool for a couple years that the owner will get antsy and make a big offer.     I'd put NYY in the less likely group to start based on expecting them to have to pay like 10/500 for Soto, while still having Judge, Stanton, Cole, etc.   But if Soto leaves it frees up a lot.     Random note, Stanton is down to 3 years left after this year, so its getting close.    Could also start to see other teams start pulling the Ohtani deferred route before it gets banned, which would help a team like NYY spend for him and Soto at once