2024 Draft Signings Thread

[brewers888]

5 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

As a general rule I will not overreact or have a single reaction to this or any draft class until I see game logs/box scores/ and or (preferrably) MiLB.TV viewings. Reacting to a class based on any consensus beyond actually watching these players play is an absurd tactic IMHO.

Last years class was praised universally for good reason and this class well it kind of sucks. They can go out and prove us wrong but on paper its a bad class especially when you factor in who they picked in round one.

[narwhalattack]

1 minute ago, Joseph Zarr said:

As a general rule I will not overreact or have a single reaction to this or any draft class until I see game logs/box scores/ and or (preferrably) MiLB.TV viewings. Reacting to a class based on any consensus beyond actually watching these players play is an absurd tactic IMHO.

I’m honestly more critical of the process. Although perhaps we’ll never truly know what went on behind the scenes and what Tod Johnson truly thought this whole time, it seems like drafting Payne was supposed to help with swinging for the fences later. We swing for the fences, and then fail to sign the guy we swung for the fences for. On top of that, for high picks you’d think that they’d do their due diligence on at least gauging what it would take to sign the guys they want to pick. If Levonas didn’t change his mind after getting drafted, that means that someone didn’t do their due diligence. Then we had a lot of money to spend because Levonas didn’t sign, and then we didn’t make the most of it. 
 

Maybe the guys we managed to sign will turn out great, but IMO the process itself seems flawed.

[LouisEly]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

While this is true this draft class definitely does seem an instant success like last years did at this point.

I assume you mean "does not".  I think that's more because there just wasn't as much talent available in this year's draft class.  It was widely considered a weak draft class.

They don't get less bonus to spend because it's a weaker class.  I have no issue with parlaying #67 into #68 next year if that's a stronger class.  It will have to be a college pick or underslot HS player, but that's what Knoth and Boeve were.

[Joseph Zarr]

OK. I'm not going to be a Fan coach. I'll step back. Complain or gripe away at your leisure. Just needed to add my 'Mostly an Optimist' influence and take in this thread. 😅

[LouisEly]

1 minute ago, narwhalattack said:

We swing for the fences, and then fail to sign the guy we swung for the fences for. On top of that, for high picks you’d think that they’d do their due diligence on at least gauging what it would take to sign the guys they want to pick. If Levonas didn’t change his mind after getting drafted, that means that someone didn’t do their due diligence.

None of us know what happened with that.  He could have changed his mind.  Maybe he met a hot girl at Wake Forest on a visit and things escalated.  Pretty ladies have caused many a young man to change his mind about things (and make bad decisions).

[titletownking]

2 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

OK. I'm not going to be a Fan coach. I'll step back. Complain or gripe away at your leisure. Just needed to add my 'Mostly an Optimist' influence and take in this thread. 😅

And I think you can appreciate their past and current success while being critical of this years strategy. They don’t correlate with one another. Onto 2025

[biedergb]

I think how good the draft was last year set expectations super high. And factor in some good signings in 2021 and 2022 it seemed like something was going to happen this year.

But most teams don't have amazing drafts multiple years in a row, you hope for a great class every few years, and surround it by some very good classes.

This year was a lower year talent wise and the chips didn't fall. Levonas has high expectations on himself and good luck to him but the odds are not in his favor. Brewers took a gamble, and swung and missed. I think we were so enamored with how they got Bitonti and Pratt last year when the pundits said they wouldn't sign that we expected him to sign, or maybe the Brewers scouting department thought they would convince him too.

The IFA class has been so good in it's first year - and you have to factor that in.

2021 was a game changing year - Chourio, G. Barrios, Areinamo (IFA), Frelick, Black, CF Rodriguez (Draft) and Shane Smith (UDFA)

2023 could be as well with Pratt, Bitonti, Wilken, Boeve, Yoho, Knoth, Letson  etc (draft) Y. Rodriguez and DiTuri (IFA) and KC Hunt (UDFA)

[Joseph Zarr]

1 minute ago, brewers888 said:

Last years class was praised universally for good reason and this class well it kind of sucks. They can go out and prove us wrong but on paper its a bad class especially when you factor in who they picked in round one.

On paper. Paper means very close to nothing to me - it certainly doesn't motivate my emotional body. I do very peripheral dives on prospects heading into drafts. I look at the prognosticators I respect and consider their opinions. The moment that draft is over? It is all in the trash. I let the viewings and the iterative AB's and innings help form my opinion.

RHP K.C. Hunt wasn't even drafted last year. RHP Shane Smith wasn't even considered a serious prospect. We picked up INF Isaac Collins in Minor League Free Agency. RHP Tanner Shears was an Indy signing. RHP Manuel Rodriguez still isn't even considered a serious prospect even though he has pitched into the 6th inning very very likely more than any other starting pitcher in the system at 18 years old.

This just in: The pundits don't actually know all that much about the Brewers system; their draft picks; their draft strategy; their general ability to acquire talent anywhere. I encourage you to not let them form your opinions on players the majority of us likely have never seen play.

[narwhalattack]

3 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

None of us know what happened with that.  He could have changed his mind.  Maybe he met a hot girl at Wake Forest on a visit and things escalated.  Pretty ladies have caused many a young man to change his mind about things (and make bad decisions).

Like I said, we may never truly know what actually happened behind the scenes, but unless he changed his mind after getting drafted (which like you said is absolutely possible!) , it’s not exactly a good look for Tod.

As someone who can only look from the outside perspective, things don’t seem all that impressive on paper.

[wiguy94]

Just now, LouisEly said:

I assume you mean "does not".  I think that's more because there just wasn't as much talent available in this year's draft class.  It was widely considered a weak draft class.

They don't get less bonus to spend because it's a weaker class.  I have no issue with parlaying #67 into #68 next year if that's a stronger class.  It will have to be a college pick or underslot HS player, but that's what Knoth and Boeve were.

Yeah meant does not. I think the talent of last years draft certainly helps, but also the draft was widely panned even at the time as being an incredibly successful draft even before we signed way more round 11-20 guys than anyone thought was realistic.

Like Wilken, Knoth, Boeve, Pratt, Bitonti were all pretty universally rated as Top 100 draft prospects and we signed all 5 and in addition to those 5 we signed a JUCO and 5 additional HS.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

5 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I mean, seriously folks. For crying out loud:

Take a dose of perspective. Take a breath. AND, calmly acknowledge and realize despite the over-reactions and despite the commentaries...this is THE best Era of Brewers baseball we have ever been a part of. I hope this draft class builds on that. 

Folks are allowed to criticize the overall process. No one is saying that these players will fail, be stars, or fall anywhere in between. No one knows and if they do I'd love that crystal ball for many reasons lol. The process overall just seems bad on the surface. I'm grateful the farm is not a perennial cellar dweller like the late Melvin years. But I believe there are some legitimate gripes to how they tackled this years draft. I just hope next year is much better planned for because as you said it is much more stocked with talent and the pool should be even higher with the small market competitive balance pick and Adames comp pick (which is sad that it is a foregone conclusion) 

[Matt]

1 minute ago, narwhalattack said:

Like I said, we may never truly know what actually happened behind the scenes, but unless he changed his mind after getting drafted (which like you said is absolutely possible!) , it’s not exactly a good look for Tod.

I think it's likely they took him knowing there wasn't much of a chance he'd sign. They'd throw a nice overslot offer at him and it's great if he takes it, but the more likely scenario was them having another pick in 2025 and more money this year.

[LouisEly]

3 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Like Wilken, Knoth, Boeve, Pratt, Bitonti were all pretty universally rated as Top 100 draft prospects and we signed all 5 and in addition to those 5 we signed a JUCO and 5 additional HS.

True.  I also remember that nobody thought that Pratt or Bitonti would sign for under $2M each ($1.35M and $1.75M respectively).  I also remember the Boeve pick getting somewhat panned. 

[narwhalattack]

5 minutes ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

Folks are allowed to criticize the overall process. No one is saying that these players will fail, be stars, or fall anywhere in between. No one knows and if they do I'd love that crystal ball for many reasons lol. The process overall just seems bad on the surface. I'm grateful the farm is not a perennial cellar dweller like the late Melvin years. But I believe there are some legitimate gripes to how they tackled this years draft. I just hope next year is much better planned for because as you said it is much more stocked with talent and the pool should be even higher with the small market competitive balance pick and Adames comp pick (which is sad that it is a foregone conclusion) 

From a fan standpoint, at this point the toughest part now is having high expectations for next year but knowing we have to wait a whole year to see what we do for the next draft. Gonna feel like a long wait 😆

[Joseph Zarr]

1 minute ago, LouisEly said:

True.  I also remember that nobody thought that Pratt or Bitonti would sign for under $2M each ($1.35M and $1.75M respectively).  I also remember the Boeve pick getting somewhat panned. 

I do to re: Boeve. I recall level of competition; age; lack of long ball power; defensive question marks etc. all generally knocking the pick down a few notches. What's really been the case with Boeve is the inability to play a full season. Although, thankfully, he returns tonight after a prolonged absence.

[Joseph Zarr]

7 minutes ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

Folks are allowed to criticize the overall process. No one is saying that these players will fail, be stars, or fall anywhere in between. No one knows and if they do I'd love that crystal ball for many reasons lol. The process overall just seems bad on the surface. I'm grateful the farm is not a perennial cellar dweller like the late Melvin years. But I believe there are some legitimate gripes to how they tackled this years draft. I just hope next year is much better planned for because as you said it is much more stocked with talent and the pool should be even higher with the small market competitive balance pick and Adames comp pick (which is sad that it is a foregone conclusion) 

Absolutely fair retort and a reasonable take. Thanks for sharing it!

[nate82]

Sometimes plans don’t go as expected.  You put your strategy in place and you execute sometimes your strategy fails.  It is not like they failed extremely hard here.  They missed out on one player in their 10 picks that counted.  Payne I also believe is better than some are giving him credit for.

Going back to the 2016 draft would you have picked the 5th 6th or 7th ranked pick at the 5th pick or the 90th ranked prospect at the 5th pick?

Sometimes the rankings just absolutely suck and don’t really match up with the players true talents.  College bats tend to be ranked higher than their HS counterparts even if they are very similar in terms of talent level.  The rankings tend to be more conservative and favor college players over HS players.

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, Matt said:

I think it's likely they took him knowing there wasn't much of a chance he'd sign. They'd throw a nice overslot offer at him and it's great if he takes it, but the more likely scenario was them having another pick in 2025 and more money this year.

Someone on BCB says Callis said on the MiLB podcast that the Brewers offered 3x slot value to Levonas and he still didn't sign. If that's true then it seems to be they desperately wanted to sign Levonas.

[BallFour]

Just now, LouisEly said:

True.  I also remember that nobody thought that Pratt or Bitonti would sign for under $2M each ($1.35M and $1.75M respectively).  I also remember the Boeve pick getting somewhat panned. 

I think people underrate how much relationships with scouts matter especially with high school kids. Both Bitonti and Pratt reportedly had deep rooted connections with our the individual area scouts who scouted them. The way the Cooper Pratt thing went down last year is something we may never see again as Brewer fans. No matter how he pans out we were really lucky that happened and I think we are projecting our frustration from the early returns of 2023 onto what has happened with this draft.

I get why people don't like the Braylon Payne pick but I also don't get why people don't talk about the tools he has. If you read his scouting report it reads almost the exact same as Garrett Mitchell's in high school. It gets a little annoying when people think he is just a slap hitter and that is all he ever will be. I guarantee the Brewers don't project him as a slap hitter. And he has the frame to grow into.

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, nate82 said:

Sometimes plans don’t go as expected.  You put your strategy in place and you execute sometimes your strategy fails.  It is not like they failed extremely hard here.  They missed out on one player in their 10 picks that counted.  Payne I also believe is better than some are giving him credit for.

Going back to the 2016 draft would you have picked the 5th 6th or 7th ranked pick at the 5th pick or the 90th ranked prospect at the 5th pick?

Sometimes the rankings just absolutely suck and don’t really match up with the players true talents.  College bats tend to be ranked higher than their HS counterparts even if they are very similar in terms of talent level.  The rankings tend to be more conservative and favor college players over HS players.

I agree on the Payne part. I think he's a bit underrated and I think some of the scouting reports seem dated on him specifically the ones that call him a slash and dash hitter. The recent videos I have seen of Payne seem like his swing is far more than slash and dash. Plus he's super young for the draft. There were quite a few 1st HS 1st round picks this year that were over a year older than him. Bitonti for example would have been the 4th or 5th (can't remember) youngest HS player drafted through the comp A round if he was in this year's draft and he's now in A-ball. Pratt is 4 days away from being 2 whole years older than Payne and he was drafted last season.

[Sugarrayray]

I’ve been critical of the Brewers before, particularly in regards to Counsell’s entire views and treatment of the offense, and on the Brewers inability to develop talented hitters over a good stretch.

However, the last few years their draft and development team is as good as it gets in baseball. I have to give them the benefit of the doubt. Just like the Hader trade, there is a strong possibility 2 or 3 years from now we are very pleasantly surprised by the outcome of this draft. In fact, we may be very please by next year when we see who they get with the extra draft pick in a deeper class.

[jay87shot]

In the end it won't matter that we didn't sign Levonas or Nunnalee unless they become all-stars. If we can get 3 productive players this draft becomes a success. There are plenty of HS talents and decent college players to make that happen. I think the biggest fault of this draft was that in day 2 we didn't take a higher thought off top 150 or HS player to protect against not signing Levonas, ala Pratt last year. That way there was a plan a, plan b, and plan c.

 

[igor67]

Trying to hit some new ideas, but adding talent to the system is always a good thing. One possible thing to consider is playing time with the roster limits and how deep out system is eventually guys with a real chance start to eat into each others development time. I haven't run a spot by spot analysis to confirm we are at that point, but the opportunity cost to signing anyone is at least worth thinking about at this point. 

One of the big ones I wanted to say is that for those critical of the process, as far as I can tell it's the same process as last year the difference is that while everyone seemed ready and willing to take us up on our offers last year this year we had to experience some of the risk that goes along with that reward.

Others have mentioned the relative quality of the class, and I'll be curious to see in a few years how this class is panning out league wide. On a decision making level if the class does look very weak in a few years that would go a long way towards vindicating it was a good decision to hold some negotiating lines even if someone we don't sign looks like they are an exception to the trend of not being good. 

Last thing worth noting is that it's actually important from a negotiating standpoint to not just use all 5% everytime. If that becomes the expectation then the Brewers lose leverage on any deal making

[titletownking]

10 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

In the end it won't matter that we didn't sign Levonas or Nunnalee unless they become all-stars. If we can get 3 productive players this draft becomes a success. There are plenty of HS talents and decent college players to make that happen. I think the biggest fault of this draft was that in day 2 we didn't take a higher thought off top 150 or HS player to protect against not signing Levonas, ala Pratt last year. That way there was a plan a, plan b, and plan c.

 

Kind of nails my thoughts on it as well. It felt like they just didn’t have a plan b but they must feel strongly about the crop of high school talent they got. 

[ClosetBrewerFan]

These day 3 guys sure were expensive. Renz got 3rd money and he was not even ranked. I'd bet they knew the Brewers had money to spend when Levonas did not sign. The agent knew they had all the leverage.  Good for these kids for cashing in. Now lets hope they perform well.