2024 Trade Deadline

[pitchleague]

2 minutes ago, Outlander said:

I think the Brewers can still be active in August. While a lot of teams are in it right now with more playoff spots, teams will drop off in August and try to save some money. Looking at the Giants with the likes of Conforto and Canha.

I thought trading is done.  They got rid of the waiver trade deadline of August 31st a few years ago.

Now, if you meant picking up guys that are DFA’d….okay.  They could still do that, I believe.

 

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I don't want to be a downer, but other than my belief that THIS year will be Chourio's breakout, All of the other things are questionable, except for Devin's health... and I believe Devin Williams will be traded this off-season.

Let's say Montas pitches really well for the Crew these last couple of months. Do the Brewers pick up the option? $14M. a $2M buyout according to Cot's.

It doesn’t matter. If Montas pitches well down the stretch he declines his end of the option and heads back to free agency where he’d get a larger guarantee.

Mutual options are essentially an accounting maneuver to push salary into the next fiscal year. 

[tmwiese55]

14 hours ago, adambr2 said:

It just sucks that this deadline was just a bad fit for us, really. It was totally favored to sellers, but it was hard to sell 7 games up. But, hard to buy when you know you're not at full strength and won't be, so all you can really do is try not to weaken yourself for next year while still giving yourself a chance this year. 

Next year looks fun, ideally with :

- Healthy post-surgery Yelich 

- Healthy Devin

- Healthy Woodruff

- Healthy (at some point) Gasser

- Chourio full breakout?

 

I mean who am I kidding, most of these guys will end up not healthy anyway plus others I haven't even thought of yet, but on paper we should be even better. 

Was thinking similarly on how it wasn't a fit for us.  In addition, I also thought being 7 up made it where they also didn't need to buy/add significantly in that they are very very likely to win the division as is due to such a lead. Of course, one bad spell can kill it really quickly but it is very tough to blow that big of a lead with like 50 games.   So, if you're already almost for sure winning the division what can you really add that significantly changes your playoff chances from the say 5% chance they have now, really nothing you can do would really move that percent.   I suppose the only argument would be trying to get to the 2nd seed does move you a few % points but I'm sure any honest assessment of catching LAD as they add at the deadline and get their SPs back is very low.

Now, say you were basically tied then some moves to really increase the division chances could be pushed.   

[Underachiever]

18 hours ago, SRB said:

Kind of seems like we gave up more for Montas than the Dodgers gave up for Flaherty... 🤣

Maybe, just maybe, this had something to do with it? Would be a shame if, you know, Flaherty had to miss a few starts. Or the season.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/yankees-reportedly-backed-out-of-jack-flaherty-trade-following-medical-review.html

"According to Rosenthal, word spread around the league that the Yankees had concerns regarding Flaherty’s medicals in the run-up to the deadline, although the only other team to actually see those medicals for themselves was the Dodgers."

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

Was thinking similarly on how it wasn't a fit for us.  In addition, I also thought being 7 up made it where they also didn't need to buy/add significantly in that they are very very likely to win the division as is due to such a lead. Of course, one bad spell can kill it really quickly but it is very tough to blow that big of a lead with like 50 games.   So, if you're already almost for sure winning the division what can you really add that significantly changes your playoff chances from the say 5% chance they have now, really nothing you can do would really move that percent.   I suppose the only argument would be trying to get to the 2nd seed does move you a few % points but I'm sure any honest assessment of catching LAD as they add at the deadline and get their SPs back is very low.

Now, say you were basically tied then some moves to really increase the division chances could be pushed.   

Some very good stuff there.

First of all, a lot of people get all caught up in the glitz of the last day before the deadline, with the cameras rolling & all the commentary. They made moves beforehand. Taking a flyer on Keuchel made sense & cost them nothing, so it not working out was a wash. We'll see how Civale does moving forward, but that made perfect sense because they dealt from the middle INF pool in the lower minors, which is extremely deep. They did their homework on Mears & IMO that was a good to potentially very good move. What I didn't like about the Montas trade was giving up Junis. Methinks the Reds felt pretty good about acquiring Weimer & we could've added someone different. And Wiemers' recent performance suggests he's a long way from being totally given up on. That said, with the ability of Hook & Henderson to squeeze more performance out of some pitchers than you'd think they could, I don't get some of the negativity re Montas. Let's let that play out.

As to WHY they weren't more aggressive, I think you nailed it. On paper, '25 & '26 look very promising. I think the FO views '24 as an overachieving year where you certainly can get in, making a run is definitely possible, but not probable. Other than MAYBE looking a little harder at IKF I think they responded pretty well.

[Fear The Chorizo]

21 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Maybe, just maybe, this had something to do with it? Would be a shame if, you know, Flaherty had to miss a few starts. Or the season.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/yankees-reportedly-backed-out-of-jack-flaherty-trade-following-medical-review.html

"According to Rosenthal, word spread around the league that the Yankees had concerns regarding Flaherty’s medicals in the run-up to the deadline, although the only other team to actually see those medicals for themselves was the Dodgers."

Would go right in line with the Dodgers' propensity to field an entire mid-market organization's payroll-sized roster of IL-d pitchers.

Assuming there's not a restriction/limit on just how many players an organization can put on the 10- or 60-day ILs....but wondering if there should be as a way to limit how many options an organization with limitless payroll can keep on their shelf and just keep on acquiring more players.  Something like a high 40s MLB roster where at no point in time can they carry more than that number in total - if teams want/need to stockpile injured players longterm on their payroll, they sure can....but then they'd also have to DFA or trade away young MLB-ready talent in their high minor leagues to make room.

The Brewers have a heap of injuries/guys on the IL along with some very targeted short term IL stints most of us assume are in part to try and maintain pitching staff roster flexibility without having to DFA guys, and currently have a total of 46 guys on the active 40-man + Injured lists.  Meanwhile, the Dodgers sport 49...it's a yet-another competitive advantage that $$ allows the Dodgers to exploit and it's frustrating.

[StearnsFTW]

3 hours ago, TURBO said:

Goes both ways.  If you are going to make an argument for the team being average or above average, you can cherry pick for that too.

This board does a great job at all 3 when trying to prove a point. 

Sure, but some are better than others at it.

 

[tmwiese55]

28 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Some very good stuff there.

First of all, a lot of people get all caught up in the glitz of the last day before the deadline, with the cameras rolling & all the commentary. They made moves beforehand. Taking a flyer on Keuchel made sense & cost them nothing, so it not working out was a wash. We'll see how Civale does moving forward, but that made perfect sense because they dealt from the middle INF pool in the lower minors, which is extremely deep. They did their homework on Mears & IMO that was a good to potentially very good move. What I didn't like about the Montas trade was giving up Junis. Methinks the Reds felt pretty good about acquiring Weimer & we could've added someone different. And Wiemers' recent performance suggests he's a long way from being totally given up on. That said, with the ability of Hook & Henderson to squeeze more performance out of some pitchers than you'd think they could, I don't get some of the negativity re Montas. Let's let that play out.

As to WHY they weren't more aggressive, I think you nailed it. On paper, '25 & '26 look very promising. I think the FO views '24 as an overachieving year where you certainly can get in, making a run is definitely possible, but not probable. Other than MAYBE looking a little harder at IKF I think they responded pretty well.

Good post.     I know I've seen IKF mentioned a lot but Amed Rosario might've been the better target.  Seems all LAD gave up was a 27 year old blah reliver in AAA who I think they signed for nothing in the offseason.  As we know here (and TB is smart too) guys like that can be turned into contributors, but I just mean it doesn't seem like it would've cost much to get him.     I guess I didn't really look at what Pit gave up though.     

I'd generally think a low cost move to add one of those two guys could've helped, especially if an IF gets hurt and you're stuck with Monasterio starting a bunch. And it likely would've had 0 effect on the future.

[SoCalBrewfan]

18 hours ago, adambr2 said:

It just sucks that this deadline was just a bad fit for us, really. It was totally favored to sellers, but it was hard to sell 7 games up. But, hard to buy when you know you're not at full strength and won't be, so all you can really do is try not to weaken yourself for next year while still giving yourself a chance this year. 

Next year looks fun, ideally with :

- Healthy post-surgery Yelich 

- Healthy Devin

- Healthy Woodruff

- Healthy (at some point) Gasser

- Chourio full breakout?

 

I mean who am I kidding, most of these guys will end up not healthy anyway plus others I haven't even thought of yet, but on paper we should be even better. 

I'm pretty bullish on next year, much moreso than I was for this year. We will lose Adames, and Yelich is hard to predict, but most of the key position players are at an age where improvement is to be expected. They won't all take steps forward, but the smart money is on collective improvement and there's still depth in the outfield. We should continue to be an excellent defense though there are some questions to be answered in the infield and the upper level prospects there all have potential issues. 

The pitching staff also has the potential to see an influx of younger talent from the likes of Gasser, Misio, Yoho, Logan Henderson, maybe even Shane Smith or one of the Ws (Woessner, Wichrowski). Mears looks like he could be a really good add. As well, it's not unreasonable to hope for better from DL Hall, Uribe, Carlos F Rodriguez. Getting something from Woody? Who knows, but a fella can hope.

[tmwiese55]

4 minutes ago, SoCalBrewfan said:

I'm pretty bullish on next year, much moreso than I was for this year. We will lose Adames, and Yelich is hard to predict, but most of the key position players are at an age where improvement is to be expected. They won't all take steps forward, but the smart money is on collective improvement and there's still depth in the outfield. We should continue to be an excellent defense though there are some questions to be answered in the infield and the upper level prospects there all have potential issues. 

The pitching staff also has the potential to see an influx of younger talent from the likes of Gasser, Misio, Yoho, Logan Henderson, maybe even Shane Smith or one of the Ws (Woessner, Wichrowski). Mears looks like he could be a really good add. As well, it's not unreasonable to hope for better from DL Hall, Uribe, Carlos F Rodriguez. Getting something from Woody? Who knows, but a fella can hope.

This quick discussion made me do a run through IF free agents this offseason because they're going to need someone to replace Adames and I'd prefer them to be a competent hitter rather than a good D AAA callup who hits sub .700. Looking for a midlevel type guy that could fit us or a Hoskins type signing.   I only spent a few minutes but nobody really stood out to me as good options so might have to dig up someone with a few years of control left or who's already signed.   Maybe guys like Mcmahon from Col or Lowe in TB where we're taking money off their hands so don't have to give that much back.  

[nate82]

It is funny that the White Sox didn't trade all of their players they could have like the Marlins did.  The White Sox may have the worst record in MLB this season but they still won't get the #1 pick as the best pick they can have is #10 since they picked in the top 6 in this years draft. 

Draft rule changes with new CBA

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The new Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and the MLB Players Association contains several changes to the Draft, most notably the creation of a lottery for the top six...

Is tanking dead?  Probably not because it resets for the '26 draft for the White Sox but then they won't be able to pick again in the top 6 until the '28 draft.  The CBA isn't clear on if it is their actual pick or if it is their ranking.  I think it is their actual pick so it will alternate every other year and every two years for teams like the Brewers. 

[thebruce44]

43 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

This quick discussion made me do a run through IF free agents this offseason because they're going to need someone to replace Adames and I'd prefer them to be a competent hitter rather than a good D AAA callup who hits sub .700. Looking for a midlevel type guy that could fit us or a Hoskins type signing.   I only spent a few minutes but nobody really stood out to me as good options so might have to dig up someone with a few years of control left or who's already signed.   Maybe guys like Mcmahon from Col or Lowe in TB where we're taking money off their hands so don't have to give that much back.  

I'd think Turang and Ortiz are the middle infielders and they look at fill 3B with a free agent or prospect.

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

Sure, but some are better than others at it.

 

True. I'm not a huge stat guy because with so many numbers out there, you can get them to say almost anything you want. But baseball is a marathon like no other sport, so I'll look at trends but still put a lot of weight on overall performance. Ax grinders can start-stop at certain dates to please themselves if they choose.

And especially when the team looks bad for a stretch, I'll certainly take the overall numbers over the occupational hazard anyone on a message board has to endure---ignoring the marathon aspect in favor of "This guy should be fired", "That guy should be DFA'd", and my personal favorite, "DUH!!! when do da Packers start?"

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, thebruce44 said:

I'd think Turang and Ortiz are the middle infielders and they look at fill 3B with a free agent or prospect.

Wilkin getting hit in the face & having to spend a portion of the year trying to hit AA pitching while wearing a mask hurts in that regard. Not to mention Boeve starting out red hot, then going down (not that he'd be in the 2025 picture though). Don't know if there's a 3B out there that would take a one-year deal, which is probably what they'd look for if needed.

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

Good post.     I know I've seen IKF mentioned a lot but Amed Rosario might've been the better target.  Seems all LAD gave up was a 27 year old blah reliver in AAA who I think they signed for nothing in the offseason.  As we know here (and TB is smart too) guys like that can be turned into contributors, but I just mean it doesn't seem like it would've cost much to get him.     I guess I didn't really look at what Pit gave up though.     

I'd generally think a low cost move to add one of those two guys could've helped, especially if an IF gets hurt and you're stuck with Monasterio starting a bunch. And it likely would've had 0 effect on the future.

That's where Black being such a tragedy at 2B & 3B comes in. I think he'll find his way here in August, but he doesn't provide the versatility they love to have.

[Matt]

I am so glad they didn't do anything stupid this deadline. 

[AKCheesehead]

4 hours ago, SoCalBrewfan said:

I'm pretty bullish on next year, much moreso than I was for this year. We will lose Adames, and Yelich is hard to predict, but most of the key position players are at an age where improvement is to be expected. They won't all take steps forward, but the smart money is on collective improvement and there's still depth in the outfield. We should continue to be an excellent defense though there are some questions to be answered in the infield and the upper level prospects there all have potential issues. 

The pitching staff also has the potential to see an influx of younger talent from the likes of Gasser, Misio, Yoho, Logan Henderson, maybe even Shane Smith or one of the Ws (Woessner, Wichrowski). Mears looks like he could be a really good add. As well, it's not unreasonable to hope for better from DL Hall, Uribe, Carlos F Rodriguez. Getting something from Woody? Who knows, but a fella can hope.

Coleman Crow could be another one to dream on for next summer too. 

[Playing Catch]

Looking at next year, it's really easy to lose sight of the fact that this season was always a soft rebuild. In their most common lineups, they are starting two rookies, and three sophomores. Leading the division is great, and one should never take for granted a shot in the playoffs, but sending prospects for pitching wouldn't be very prudent.

If Ortiz and Chourio (and Mitchell, for that matter), have a similar jump in productivity as Turang, and to a lesser degree, Frelick, next year's lineup will continue to be deep, if not spectacular. Sprinkle in some Tyler Black and Brock Wilken, along with all of the pitching coming up, and the Brewers "competitive window," looks to just be opening.

[Brewcrew82]

17 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

That's where Black being such a tragedy at 2B & 3B comes in. I think he'll find his way here in August, but he doesn't provide the versatility they love to have.

Yeah. With Yelich being on the shelf and Black showing relatively well in the OF, I think a recall of Black could be imminent. We're short on a lefty bat who can get on base at the top of the order right now with Turang struggling, and if there's anything that describes Black to a "T" it's that. He hasn't hit for as much power lately, but all he really has to do is hit for more than Frelick.

Trading a non-Chourio OFer at the deadline would have helped sort this out a bit, but I think the time is here to give Black an extended run of ABs. And I think you can find them between the OF, DH, and 1B. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

13 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah. With Yelich being on the shelf and Black showing relatively well in the OF, I think a recall of Black could be imminent. We're short on a lefty bat who can get on base at the top of the order right now with Turang struggling, and if there's anything that describes Black to a "T" it's that. He hasn't hit for as much power lately, but all he really has to do is hit for more than Frelick.

Trading a non-Chourio OFer at the deadline would have helped sort this out a bit, but I think the time is here to give Black an extended run of ABs. And I think you can find them between the OF, DH, and 1B. 

Mostly DH would be my guess. We'll see.

[tmwiese55]

On 7/30/2024 at 2:08 PM, tmwiese55 said:

Random guess (idea?) of an acquisition I haven't seen mentioned anywhere is Jake Burger.  Controlled for a few years after this too.  He was awful to start the year, but has been good again for the last month or so.  Can start platooning a guy like Ortiz around giving guys days off and then you have depth if an injury happens.  Ortiz/Turang have both been floundering lately so an improvement could help.  In addition, Adames is gone next year so you need to add a starter to those 3 IF positions somewhere.    IDK how is D checks out though

Been keeping an eye on this one and Burger has been absolutely raking since then.   Obviously who knows what happens if we would've got traded and if it messed up his rhythm or whatever but he's been on fire.  1.2 ops with 13 HRs last month, 1.3 with 9 the last two weeks.    Without double checking stats it seems Ortiz/Turang have at least rebounded a bit lately of us too though so whatever. 

[brewfanmn]

Checking in after a couple weeks on the Brewers disappointing bust of a deadline-

 

Civale, Mears, Montas: 61 IP, 3.86 ERA, 25% K, 8% BB, 3.88 xFIP

 

Too early to count the chickens, but so far so good...

[wiguy94]

34 minutes ago, brewfanmn said:

Checking in after a couple weeks on the Brewers disappointing bust of a deadline-

 

Civale, Mears, Montas: 61 IP, 3.86 ERA, 25% K, 8% BB, 3.88 xFIP

 

Too early to count the chickens, but so far so good...

The fact Mears after tonight has a 4.46 FIP with a 37.5% HR/FB rate is pretty crazy. The 40% K-BB% will definitely do that for you. Such nasty stuff. If he keeps the ball in the park, I think he could be a mainstay among the high leverage arms the next few years.

[Scooterfletcher]

As for 3B next year (with the assumption Turang and Ortiz handle the middle infield) , I would let black/wilken/Boeve do spring training and prove none can handle the job before going with a stop gap Jedd Gyprko type.   Manipulate service time between the aforementioned if need be but I think we can get a 1.0 war minimum that way. 

[LouisEly]

12 hours ago, brewfanmn said:

Checking in after a couple weeks on the Brewers disappointing bust of a deadline-

 

Civale, Mears, Montas: 61 IP, 3.86 ERA, 25% K, 8% BB, 3.88 xFIP

 

Too early to count the chickens, but so far so good...

Erick Feede: 16 IP, 5.63 ERA, 5.86 FIP, 16.4 K%, 10.1 BB%, 2.3 HR/9

Jack Flaherty: 16.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 33 K%, 6 BB%, 2.2 HR/9