Devin Willams Trade

[jay87shot]

What are we thinking are the top 3 teams that would go for Devin?

I think 1)Rangers 2)Red Sox 3)Yankees but there are really like 6 teams that could go hard. It should at least drive his value to about what we got for Hader (remember Hader had 1.5 years but an era of 5+). I like the Rangers and Red Sox farm systems matching up best if we are looking for prospects. I think the Yankees, Phillies, and a couple of the other bigger market teams might be easiest to suck into a bidding war.

 

[wntrtxn21]

I just don't see the Brewers looking at 18-21 year old prospects for Williams unless that's the best return possible. They already have a nice farm system and need more immediate help. With Yelich coming back and others maturing, they aren't that far away from moving past the 1st round.  It looks as if Hoskins is staying so their immediate need is 3B/SS. I don't think they want to move Turang off 2B considering how many outs and runs he saved with his defense. 

[Playing Catch]

It seems like there are a lot of different opinions as to Devin's trade value. Using our own prospects as a measure, which prospect of the Brewers would Williams be worth?

1 top prospect plus (Pratt+Wichrowski+Juan Baez+KC Hunt)
1 top prospect (MIz, Quero, Made)
2 mid-tier prospects (Lara+Wichrowski, Bitoni+Letson)
1 mid-tier plus 2 or more lottos (Lara+Manuel Rodriguez+Adamczewski+Jose Anderson)
2 lottos (Manuel Rodriguez+Jose Anderson)

As for myself, I think for a contending team, that wants a closer, Devin is worth 2 mid-tier prospects. I don't believe any team would offer more unless it was a Williams package. I think the Brewers would accept even less.

What this exercise makes me think about is that if the Brewers want MLB-ready, they will need to accept a low-ceiling guy.

[Oxy]

I like the the idea of trading Williams for another GOOD player with an expiring contract at a position of need (3b), or packaging Williams in order to up the value of the return (trying to get a Westburg from the Orioles).  Otherwise, I just don't see the point, and would rather just keep him to further the dominance of our bullpen and get the comp pick.

[Matt]

When I think about it, there's really not many packages I wouldn't accept for Devin. 

A one year 2-3 win rental on the infield? Sure.
Some team's top ten prospect? Hell yes.
A Yoho, Hunt, Burke, Wichrowski, Bitonti mid-org prospect? Yea, that'd be great.
Lower level dudes with promise? Absolutely. 

K.C. Hunt is Pipeline's #29 prospect. I'd help Devin pack if we got some organization's K.C. Hunt back.  

[Oxy]

2 hours ago, Matt said:

When I think about it, there's really not many packages I wouldn't accept for Devin. 

A one year 2-3 win rental on the infield? Sure.
Some team's top ten prospect? Hell yes.
A Yoho, Hunt, Burke, Wichrowski, Bitonti mid-org prospect? Yea, that'd be great.
Lower level dudes with promise? Absolutely. 

K.C. Hunt is Pipeline's #29 prospect. I'd help Devin pack if we got some organization's K.C. Hunt back.  

The problem with this is that the comp pick we get for Devin if we keep him is about the same as your options 3 and 4...so...keep the best reliever in baseball for reasonable price AND get that option...or save $10 million for a $20 M value player when the budget shouldn't really be squeezed...give me the former.

[Scooterfletcher]

15 minutes ago, Oxy said:

The problem with this is that the comp pick we get for Devin if we keep him is about the same as your options 3 and 4...so...keep the best reliever in baseball for reasonable price AND get that option...or save $10 million for a $20 M value player when the budget shouldn't really be squeezed...give me the former.

Are we sure Devin won’t accept a 20+ million one year deal after this season?

[Matt]

33 minutes ago, Oxy said:

The problem with this is that the comp pick we get for Devin if we keep him is about the same as your options 3 and 4...so...keep the best reliever in baseball for reasonable price AND get that option...or save $10 million for a $20 M value player when the budget shouldn't really be squeezed...give me the former.

I think calling him the best reliever in baseball is a pretty big stretch.

In the end it comes down to the return, and I think the days of relievers getting eye popping returns are mostly over. I'd really love to be wrong. 

I hope the Brewers trade him, but I won't be upset if they keep him, comp pick or not. 

[Oxy]

56 minutes ago, Matt said:

I think calling him the best reliever in baseball is a pretty big stretch.

In the end it comes down to the return, and I think the days of relievers getting eye popping returns are mostly over. I'd really love to be wrong. 

I hope the Brewers trade him, but I won't be upset if they keep him, comp pick or not. 

Yep.  It's all very subjective.  Although I think his case for best reliever in baseball is better than...everybody else's. But he is certainly in the argument and anybody who doesn't mention him as a candidate would have a larger stretch to make than one who puts him in the conversation...thus not a stretch at all.

[liveforoctober]

I agree with whoever just said any trade we make for Devin needs to be compared to the value of him staying. We shouldn't just trade him because we get offers.

Keeping him means we get another year of an above average+ bullpen in a contending year AND a nice comp draft pick when he leaves. Any trade package we get for him needs to provide better value than that.

This definitely is not a "take the best offer you can get at any cost" situation. The Brewers have leverage here in negotiations.

[sveumrules]

There are 275 relievers with at least 100 IP in the 2020's. Devin's at...

222 IP (45th) | 179 K%+ (2nd) | 139 BB%+ (244th) | 44 HR9+ (11th) | 59 AVG+ (1st) | 41 ERA- (2nd) | 53 FIP- (2nd) | 59 xFIP- (3rd) | 2.55 SIERA (6th) | 9.4 rWAR (2nd) | 7.6 fWAR (2nd) | +14.40 WPA (1st)

The only real blemish to his regular season record has been missing time this year and walking too many guys. Other than that it's pretty elite across the board.

Edwin Diaz has him beat in K%+ (182), FIP- (51) and xFIP- (57). Clase has him beat in ERA- (39), rWAR (9.5), and fWAR (8.5). But their combined WPA (+9.24 for Clase and +4.74 for Diaz) is still less than Devin has by himself.

[Scooterfletcher]

Chase Hampton would be a great get for Devin Williams and a reliever like Peguero/B Wilson if possible.  
 

Also I’d like to add that this is a little different situation than Adames in that I find it unlikely we offer the QO at 22 mil or whatever to Devin.

[jay87shot]

Williams is in line for a 5/100 style deal like Hader and Diaz. Unless he gets hurt or stinks he will decline the QO. The things is it doesn't matter, when trade negotiating you saw we want 1 piece that is a comp. pick value because that is what you will get back and then 1/2 more pieces that is worth a year of a top 3 closer. There will be way more than enough teams that a couple will give the additional QO value.

I've said this a couple times the minimum value is what we got for Hader, 2 top 10 org. prospects. It might be tough to get consensus top 100 prospect like Ortiz but it is doable.

[Austin Tatious]

On 10/18/2024 at 4:00 PM, Playing Catch said:

It seems like there are a lot of different opinions as to Devin's trade value. Using our own prospects as a measure, which prospect of the Brewers would Williams be worth?

1 top prospect plus (Pratt+Wichrowski+Juan Baez+KC Hunt)
1 top prospect (MIz, Quero, Made)
2 mid-tier prospects (Lara+Wichrowski, Bitoni+Letson)
1 mid-tier plus 2 or more lottos (Lara+Manuel Rodriguez+Adamczewski+Jose Anderson)
2 lottos (Manuel Rodriguez+Jose Anderson)

As for myself, I think for a contending team, that wants a closer, Devin is worth 2 mid-tier prospects. I don't believe any team would offer more unless it was a Williams package. I think the Brewers would accept even less.

What this exercise makes me think about is that if the Brewers want MLB-ready, they will need to accept a low-ceiling guy.

Great way to frame it.  I’d say one mid tier and two lottos, or possibly the two mid tiers. Either would be better than a comp pick. 

The organization likes to get back control and it works in terms of roster sustainability in a small market.  The Brewers have metrics and analytics they like that will help identify the prospects.  They won’t take back guys without those attributes.  

[LouisEly]

On 10/18/2024 at 10:13 PM, Scooterfletcher said:

Are we sure Devin won’t accept a 20+ million one year deal after this season?

Edwin Diaz got 5/102.

Hader got 5/95

Raisel Iglesias got 4/58. 

35-year-old Kenley Jansen got $16M/year.  34-year-old Ryan Pressly got $15M/year.

Taylor Rogers - yes, that Taylor Rogers who stunk for the Brewers - got 3/33.

Devin isn't taking $20M for one year.

[Playing Catch]

A couple of Brewers mentions in the MLB Trade Rumors Chat...

He seems to think a Williams for Bohm trade is feasible, and mutually beneficial...

Giddyup

9:05

Devin Williams for Alex Bohm - who says no?

 

Mark P

9:05

With Ortiz taking over as the Brewers' shortstop?  I kind of like this one, as Milwaukee could keep Bohm at 3B or move him to 1B as circumstances warrant.

 

He also responds to a tormented Brewers fan with some sagacious, national-perspective wisdom...

Brewers

9:01

How will we ever get out of this labyrinth of suffering?

 

Mark P

9:02

This particular year was a real gut-punch for Brewers fans, but take heart....the organization knows what it's doing, and there's still a lot of talent on the roster.  Nobody should be surprised if Milwaukee makes the playoffs again, and they're perhaps overdue for some October breaks to finally go their way

[nate82]

35 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

A couple of Brewers mentions in the MLB Trade Rumors Chat...

He seems to think a Williams for Bohm trade is feasible, and mutually beneficial...

Giddyup

9:05

Devin Williams for Alex Bohm - who says no?

 

Mark P

9:05

With Ortiz taking over as the Brewers' shortstop?  I kind of like this one, as Milwaukee could keep Bohm at 3B or move him to 1B as circumstances warrant.

Confirmation bias here but I really believe a Bohm for Williams trade is close to be fairing for both teams.  Will the Phillies do this?  Probably not as I think they value Bohm more than a closer.  I believe the Brewers would do this trade as I think they are comfortable with who they have in the minors and who is already on the roster to replace Williams spot in the bullpen. 

It is the Phillies side of thing that is questionable.  How much do they value Bohm?  Do they think he is a 3B or do they think he is a 1B?  If they think he is a 1B then there really isn't much room for him on the Phillies roster.  If the Phillies trade him would they prefer someone like Williams or prospects?  I think they would go with someone like Williams (MLB veteran) considering where they are at as an organization.  I don't think a prospect package would be all that enticing for the Phillies to trade Bohm and if other teams see Bohm as a 1B and not a 3B then his value drops a bit.  He goes from $15-20mm in excess value to about $10-15mm in excess value.  This is taking into consideration defense at 3B is far more valuable than defense at 1B.

I am skeptical that the Phillies would do a trade like this but they really do need some bullpen help late in the game and they have the budget to resign Williams if they wanted to.  Even with that I think they go another route if they trade Bohm.  Though trading Bohm will all depend on where the Phillies think his best spot defensively is at.  If they think he is a 1B I expect Bohm to be traded as they have Harper at 1B already and already have two DH candidates in Castellanos and Schwarber.  It is just really hard to put Bohm at 1B for the Phillies when they already have a better offensive option with Harper and have two just as good or better DH options. 

[jay87shot]

My guess would be that if we did a Devin for Bohm deal there would be some secondary pieces going one way or another but nothing huge, maybe like a AAA reliever, utility guy, non-top 20 organizational prospect, or cash.

 

What about Williams to San Fran for LaMonte Wade and a relief prospect like Trent Harris. We get a Bauers/Sanchez replacement and a high end relief prospect while San Fran gets Devin without giving up any major pieces.

 

[B.F.-rakes]

Williams is an elite closer who missed  roughly 100games due to stress fractures in his back and returned in last week of july and had era of 1.25,saved 14 of 15 games to end the year in a bullpen that struggled around him when he returned, they were lights out prior to his return, but fatigue/injuries,and most seeing career high in innings pitched just fell off.Williams has a career era of 1.81,almost 4/1 k/bb ratio and still is only 30,not old for a closer.Plenty of teams will pay for an elite closer,and price will go up if u can gamble,and unload him at trade deadline.Hader,Williams,Clase,Iglesias,Hensley types r rare imo.Williams just had a horrible ending to 2024,as we all know,it happens,and sucks to live with all offseason. And half the league would love a closer,because as we know,especially u gamblers,at least 50% of all games r a 1-2 run difference in the 9th and also not a coincidence that Brewers have the majority of there playoff appearances over last 6-7 years in club history with the help of Hader&Williams,,

[Matt]

Passan: 

Anyone in need of a closer need only look at the National League Central, where two of the best in baseball will be available. Executives say Milwaukee's Devin Williams and St. Louis' Ryan Helsley are both on the market, and they expect both to be moved at some point this winter. Each has one year of club control remaining and will be in his final season of arbitration, with Williams expected to command around $8 million and Helsley $7 million. And considering the level of production they provide -- Williams had a 1.25 ERA and struck out 38 in 21⅓ innings after returning from a back injury, and Helsley punched out 79 over 66⅓ innings with a 2.04 ERA and MLB-best 49 saves -- the asks will be understandably high. Teams in the market for a closer could include the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and San Francisco Giants, though realistically any team would gladly add either Williams or Helsley to its bullpen.

It'll be nice to have a bit of a bidding war for Williams.

[Lloyd330]

So JJ former agent just put Devin on blast...I dont know if this is new news or not, but he talk about some off the field issues. 

[Brewcrew82]

Honestly, I'm not trading Devin to the Dodgers unless we're able to fleece them pretty good. So, not even for "fair value". They're already very likely to pick up Adames and last thing we need is to give them a shutdown closer on top of that.

Unfortunately, a fleece is unlikely to happen given their savvy FO, so I'd prefer to talk to other teams or play the Dodgers to increase bids from other teams. My expectations are lower for an offseason trade, but the possibility of a bidding war is nice to think about.

[nate82]

1 hour ago, Lloyd330 said:

So JJ former agent just put Devin on blast...I dont know if this is new news or not, but he talk about some off the field issues. 

That guy is extremely salty and a bit unstable mentally.  I would take whatever he says with a really fine grain of salt.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Lloyd330 said:

So JJ former agent just put Devin on blast...I dont know if this is new news or not, but he talk about some off the field issues. 

Devin himself confirmed he was never suspended.

 

[patrickgpe]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10142278-ranking-devin-williams-top-10-trade-landing-spots-after-brewers-option-declined

I'm good with the Phil's or Mets trade mentioned.