Developed - Devin Williams to the Yankees for Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin

[liveforoctober]

1 hour ago, snoogans8056 said:

You only have to go back like 2 years to see Durbin, Lockridge, Seigler, and Perkins in a Yankees jersey.

There is a bit of merit here to how organization's can and should scrape from others. I don't think it is a coincidence at all that the White Sox have an open door policy to any Brewers pitcher they can get. If I was a struggling franchise I would grab from someone who is doing it right as much as possible.

In our case, if there are teams out there that you can steal from because you have a developmental process that is more thorough and can 'extract' talent that they don't have the energy to find... what a system.

Let's trade with the Yankees at all times.

[JCREW]

3 hours ago, umphrey said:

It's almost unbelievable that just 4 months ago his FA projection was maybe 4/$80m or so, he's healthy, and he's now probably 1/$5m or 2/$15m. 

Yeah, prove-it deal seems likely. Either MKE or hometown StL.

[Frisbee Slider]

I’m not sure if Milwaukee would take Devin Williams back in 2026. I believe our eighth and ninth innings are pretty well set.

Devin would probably want to go someplace he could have a high leverage role.

 

[cragi]

1 hour ago, Frisbee Slider said:

I’m not sure if Milwaukee would take Devin Williams back in 2026. I believe our eighth and ninth innings are pretty well set.

Devin would probably want to go someplace he could have a high leverage role.

 

Nobody is going to hand Williams a high leverage role this next year. Williams best bet is to find a staff that will help him rediscover his skills. And right now, there might not be a better place for that to happen than Milwaukee.

[Frisbee Slider]

1 minute ago, cragi said:

Nobody is going to hand Williams a high leverage role this next year.

I bet Devin’s changeup plays in Colorado. 🤷‍♂️

[CheezWizHed]

Devin Williams' best role is not in high leverage at all.  Pressure is not his friend.  I knew going to NYY was going to blow up because it is always high pressure there.  I'd take him back as a 7th inning guy, but not the closer. 

[RobDeer 45]

I’d be hesitant to bring him back. Wasn’t he not a great clubhouse guy? I think he might be mentally cooked after this season as well. I think it’s best to let him go somewhere else. 
 

[Brian]

Devin Williams now = Tyler Alexander. Except at 10X the price/cost. 

I'd rather give Craig Yoho another shot again. 

[SRB]

I'd easily give Devin something like 1/$10M next season. The fundamentals are still solid, he's just having one of those fluke years that almost all relievers (save inhuman ones like Mariano Rivera) sometimes have. Very similar stats to Josh Hader in 2022, and he came back the next year with a 1.28 ERA over 56.1 IP.

A great value proposition if he's willing to take less to get his grove back in an organization he knows. Or maybe those bridges were burnt with the surprise trade.

[SRB]

3 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Devin Williams' best role is not in high leverage at all.  Pressure is not his friend.  I knew going to NYY was going to blow up because it is always high pressure there.  I'd take him back as a 7th inning guy, but not the closer. 

Did you miss the hundreds of innings he pitched for us with a sparkling ERA and some of the best high-leverage stats in the game???

[Brian]

Devin Williams will be 31 next month and has had stress fractures in his back, undergone tommy john surgery, tore the ulnar collateral ligament of the elbow, broke his hand and a 5.60 ERA this season. No Thank You. 

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, SRB said:

Did you miss the hundreds of innings he pitched for us with a sparkling ERA and some of the best high-leverage stats in the game???

Absolutely I did!  I endured MANY blown saves in some of the most critical games.  And watched him be unhittable in low pressure games (i.e. not playoffs, not winning teams).  And had cold sweats through many games where I'm begging him to throw a strike. 

I've seen many, many reasons to think that he doesn't do well in high pressure situations.  He was far better as the setup man to Hader. 

[Frisbee Slider]

22 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

He was far better as the setup man to Hader. 

We all got a little nervous with Devin but this might not be true except for the short period during COVID.

Devin’s ERA was an arrow pointing down and to the right after becoming closer.

[liveforoctober]

19 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Absolutely I did!  I endured MANY blown saves in some of the most critical games.  And watched him be unhittable in low pressure games (i.e. not playoffs, not winning teams).  And had cold sweats through many games where I'm begging him to throw a strike. 

I've seen many, many reasons to think that he doesn't do well in high pressure situations.  He was far better as the setup man to Hader. 

I fear you are basing your Brewers memories of him off of 2.1 innings pitched in the playoffs in his career and from a dumb decision to punch a wall.

His covid year was magic. After that, the lowest ERA numbers of his Brewers career were his seasons as a closer, the lowest WHIP #'s he had were his years as a Brewers closer, his best K/BB numbers were as a closer.

He only blew 11 save chances as a Milwaukee Brewers pitcher in his career (including playoffs) and for reference, his save % (86.1%) is nearly identical to Josh Hader's as a Brewers player (86.9%).

I know your eyes saw what they saw but the #'s paint a much more favorable picture of who Devin Williams was on the mound. It is just too bad he tipped a few pitches against the Mets and that is predominantly what he will be remembered for.
 

[RobDeer 45]

Was his WHIP bad?  I'm just thinking he seemed like he was always going full count and letting guys on but that's just based off memory.  I probably don't remember the clean innings as much because they were low stress!  

[wiguy94]

9 minutes ago, RobDeer 45 said:

Was his WHIP bad?  I'm just thinking he seemed like he was always going full count and letting guys on but that's just based off memory.  I probably don't remember the clean innings as much because they were low stress!  

Devin Williams had a WHIP of 0.92 and 0.97 in his two seasons as a Brewers closer

[markedman5]

5 hours ago, SRB said:

I'd easily give Devin something like 1/$10M next season. The fundamentals are still solid, he's just having one of those fluke years that almost all relievers (save inhuman ones like Mariano Rivera) sometimes have. Very similar stats to Josh Hader in 2022, and he came back the next year with a 1.28 ERA over 56.1 IP.

A great value proposition if he's willing to take less to get his grove back in an organization he knows. Or maybe those bridges were burnt with the surprise trade.

They aren’t going to spend 10 million on a relief pitcher coming off a down year.

Somebody else might but it won’t be the Brewers……plenty of other ways to spend that money more productively.

Brewers have always been able to find effective bullpen guys on the cheap…….with all,of our high leverage guys(Shelby not included) under control next season we are in good shape there barring injury.

[LouisEly]

In 2024, among the top 50 pitchers in terms of number of saves, Devin Williams had the highest # of pitches per batter faced and had the 8th most pitches per inning pitched.  He was 7th in highest BB/9.

In 2023, among the top 50 pitchers in terms of number of saves, Devin Williams was 9th in most pitches per batter faced (fun fact - Josh Hader had the most).  Among the top 25 in saves, Devin Williams was 5th in most pitches per batter faced.  Williams was 32nd in most pitches per inning pitched.  He was 14th in BB/9; among the top 25 in saves, he had the 6th highest BB/9.

In 2022, among the top 50 pitchers in terms of number of saves, Devin Williams had the highest # of pitches per batter faced and was 10th in most pitches per inning pitched.  When limited to the top 25 in terms of saves, Williams had the 4th highest pitches per inning pitched.  He was 9th in BB/9; among the top 25 in saves, he had the 4th highest BB/9.

If you think that Devin Williams was shaky as a closer, there is statistical data to support that.

[SRB]

14 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

If you think that Devin Williams was shaky as a closer, there is statistical data to support that.

Not really. High K% power relievers who walk a lot of guys (but are almost unhittable) will generally be at the top of those lists. It's just the style of pitching, not a metric for effectiveness. Pitch efficiency is almost meaningless for guys who only pitch 1.0 IP at a time.

[LouisEly]

28 minutes ago, SRB said:

Not really. High K% power relievers who walk a lot of guys (but are almost unhittable) will generally be at the top of those lists. It's just the style of pitching, not a metric for effectiveness. Pitch efficiency is almost meaningless for guys who only pitch 1.0 IP at a time.

Except that he was top-10 in BB/9 in all three seasons.

[SRB]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

Except that he was top-10 in BB/9 in all three seasons.

And among the league leaders in WHIP. Across his Brewers tenure (2019-2024), Williams was the 12th best pitcher in baseball at keeping runners off the bases.

 

[Frisbee Slider]

I am surprised this is an August 15 news story.

https://www.si.com/mlb/yankees/news/new-york-yankees-unlikely-resign-struggling-devin-williams

[liveforoctober]

My very uneducated opinion is that I think he will have closing options, but I'm not sure he will have big money options. 

I could see someone like Pittsburgh giving him one year, $7 million. Allows a Pittsburgh like team to show their fans they are trying by signing a name, and then if they can turn him around have a trade piece at the deadline.

If he can't get more than $6-$7 million though... I wonder if he isn't better off taking less for a lighter role to rebuild his rep and go for a bigger contract in '27? If he gets a closers roll and fumbles it away again next year that might be it for him getting that chance. 

If he can't find more than $6 elsewhere and the Brewers offer him $4 with incentives, I feel like he should consider us and we should consider him. This has been said multiple times here but this does feel like a Jeffress situation all over again.

[sveumrules]

On 8/12/2025 at 6:39 PM, LouisEly said:

Except that he was top-10 in BB/9 in all three seasons.

All those walks and all those extra pitches thrown didn’t stop Devin from putting up +9.68 Win Probability Added from 2022-24 tops in all of MLB.

Next best relievers during that stretch were over a full win behind him…Jhoan Duran (+8.10), Alexis Diaz (+8.07), and Emmanuel Clase (+7.97).

Devin was credited with 98 Shutdowns versus 13 Meltdowns those three years compared to 95 SD | 22 MD for Duran, 86 SD | 24 MD for Diaz, and 114 SD | 26 MD for Clase. Emmanuel had twice as many meltdowns and only got 16 extra shutdowns over Devin.

Scrolling down the WPA leaderboard and the first reliever with fewer meltdowns than Williams was Felix Bautista with 11, but he only had 64 shutdowns to go along with it.

[LouisEly]

35 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

All those walks and all those extra pitches thrown didn’t stop Devin from putting up +9.68 Win Probability Added from 2022-24 tops in all of MLB.

Next best relievers during that stretch were over a full win behind him…Jhoan Duran (+8.10), Alexis Diaz (+8.07), and Emmanuel Clase (+7.97).

Devin was credited with 98 Shutdowns versus 13 Meltdowns those three years compared to 95 SD | 22 MD for Duran, 86 SD | 24 MD for Diaz, and 114 SD | 26 MD for Clase. Emmanuel had twice as many meltdowns and only got 16 extra shutdowns over Devin.

Scrolling down the WPA leaderboard and the first reliever with fewer meltdowns than Williams was Felix Bautista with 11, but he only had 64 shutdowns to go along with it.

Those statistics are outcome-based.

"Shaky" isn't outcome-based.  "Shaky" describes the journey from beginning to end.

He walked a lot of guys and threw a lot of pitches per inning relative to his peers.  That fits my definition of a "shaky" journey from beginning to end, even if the outcome was what was desired and a frequently better outcome than his peers.