Developed - Devin Williams to the Yankees for Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin

[sveumrules]

23 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Feels to me like we have a bunch of guys here doing their best to talk themselves into the fact that this is a good trade.  Meh.

No one needs to talk themselves into anything. The most Devin can be realistically expected to contribute is around four wins in one season, career high of +4.09 WPA.

The odds of one year of Cortes (who's averaged 3 WAR / 150 IP the last three years) plus six years of Durbin adding up to fewer than four wins is extremely low.

It's just math.

[markedman5]

Heyman thinks it was “a bit of an overpay by the Yanks “

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Just now, adambr2 said:

Here’s something wild to think about it:

Back in 2016, the Cubs traded the #24 prospect in ALL of BASEBALL and 3 other prospects to RENT Aroldis Chapman for 2 months.

You’d be laughed off the phone if you asked for that kind of return for a reliever rental these days. Valuation sure has changed.

That was viewed as a terrible trade even then, and quite possible a big reason why the Cubs' window with that team was closed so quickly.

[sveumrules]

4 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Here’s something wild to think about it:

Back in 2016, the Cubs traded the #24 prospect in ALL of BASEBALL and 3 other prospects to RENT Aroldis Chapman for 2 months.

You’d be laughed off the phone if you asked for that kind of return for a reliever rental these days. Valuation sure has changed.

Everyone knew that the Cubs "overpaid" at the time to try to break a hundred year curse.

The Chapman trade had as much affect on the reliever market as the Counsell contract had on the manager market.

[Simba2020]

Count me in the won't miss Williams camp as well. With his consistently lousy control he was too often bordering on the brink of disaster. I don't think he will age well at all. Should be fine if he can handle the pressures of New York next year but I sure wouldn't want to be the team giving him the big contract. 

[markedman5]

MLB pipeline has Durbin slotted in as our number 15 prospect 

 

[markedman5]

Obviously it was 2 million…..not sure how much that would change their calculus 

[snoogans8056]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/41947061/yankees-nestor-cortes-expects-world-series-roster

Quote

NEW YORK -- Nestor Cortes knows there's a long-term injury risk if he pitches in the World Series just one month after being diagnosed with a flexor strain, often a precursor to a serious elbow injury. Pitching could cost Cortes, a free agent after next season, millions of dollars.

I could see this trade being killed during the physical...

[tmwiese55]

I guess my take would be that I expected and kind of wanted a Williams trade. I never fully trusted him like I did typical elite relivers with upper 90s heat plus wipeout slider.  Maybe I'm just biased against changeups though. But of course, know he's good.

I'm surprised they went the route of getting a starter back in a year when we seem to have strong starter depth already (quite the opposite of last offseason).  And especially surprised got someone back who is also a FA. Figured they'd have tried to save the money and targeted cheap control.  But I get it, can never really have enough SP and Nester has been solid for a few years now. I also won't be surprised if they reroute him though.   

And I expected a AAA type IF with a chance to play right away to be brought in at some point, which they did here. But of course I'd prefer someone with more HR potential.  So, I get the logic on all of it. While being a little surprised they went this route.  Safe to say subsequent moves will likely make this all make more sense though.    I still hope another IF is brought in to be the clear starter and this guy takes Monestarios spot or is more of a 'gravy' if he does pan out as opposed to pinning our hopes on him next season. 

[sveumrules]

1 minute ago, snoogans8056 said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/41947061/yankees-nestor-cortes-expects-world-series-roster

I could see this trade being killed during the physical...

McCalvy already reported Cortes passed the physical and has had a "fully healthy offseason".

[StearnsFTW]

Devin in New York seems like a bad idea to me. 

 

I wish him the best though.

[homer]

Durbin broke his wrist last spring. Maybe explains the low exit velocity?

 

From Fangraphs:

Quote

The exit velo numbers weren’t great in 2024, but wrist injuries often sap power for a while even after players return from them, so it’s reasonable to project some improvement in that area next year.

 

[CheeseheadInQC]

Do we have any exit velocity numbers from the AFL on Durbin.

 

[areacodes]

2 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Do we have any exit velocity numbers from the AFL on Durbin.

 

Or 2023?

[sveumrules]

FanGraphs has their trade write up posted, some nuggets...

"He succeeds in roughly the way you’d expect. He makes a ton of contact, particularly in the zone, thanks to a compact swing that punishes pitches up in the zone. There’s a ton of lift and pull to his game, and his excellent bat control helps him stay out in front, even against good opposing pitches. The exit velo numbers weren’t great in 2024, but wrist injuries often sap power for a while even after players return from them, so it’s reasonable to project some improvement in that area next year.

That kind of approach has its limits. It would be wildly irresponsible to project above-average power production at the major league level from a 5’6” batter until we’ve seen far more evidence that he can keep it up. But he checks enough boxes offensively that I’d be very interested in finding out how it works in the big leagues, because he has a lot of skills you can’t teach: bat control, command of the strike zone, and an ability to identify and attack pitches that he can damage."

"In summary, this is the most win-win trade between contenders I’ve seen in quite a while. Everyone gets what they’re looking for here. Both teams improve their chances for 2025. Both rosters look better in their new configuration. All the players are fun. The only thing I don’t like about this trade is that I didn’t think it up myself. What a delight."

[rickh150]

I simply like the idea that we are getting hopefully 150-180 innings of pretty solid starting pitching.  I believe our relievers can fill in some of Devin's innings well, even if it is a minor drop off.  Those innings go a long ways to keeping our bullpen fresh and good by end of season.  I like the prospect too and feel he fits fine for our need in the infield too.  Solid trade.  

[CheeseheadInQC]

Yah, this feels like an old fashioned win-win trade. It fills holes on both teams while being fairly comparable value-wise. It wasn’t what I was expecting, and maybe doesn’t give you as much to dream on, but if they wanted another solid starter, given the going rates, they’d have to send out an equivalent prospect package to what they would have gotten for Williams anyway if they had gone the normal route.

[Sugarrayray]

For some reason I’ve been feeling like Cortes was a Brewers candidate for a few years. I thought he made a lot of sense for them at the tradeline last year.

[Matt]

Law

The Yankees talked up Caleb Durbin after he had a nice AFL performance, with Aaron Boone pretending Durbin might be their second baseman to start the year, but this trade shows that was all a smokescreen. Durbin can run, and he can put the ball in play, but he has next to no power. His average exit velocity in AAA was 83 mph, his Barrel rate was just 3 percent, and his EV50 (the average exit velocity of the top 50 percent of his batted balls) was 92.3, which would have ranked last in the majors by almost 2 mph. He’s 5-foot-6 and already maxed out, so I’m skeptical that he can add any strength to improve his contact quality. He’s played all three skill positions on the infield and dabbled a little in left and center, but doesn’t have the arm for shortstop or third. He might be a good last guy on the bench because he has some speed and puts the ball in play at such a high rate (his strikeout rate in Triple A last year was just 9.9 percent), but I don’t see anything more.

Tell us how you really feel, Keith. 

[sveumrules]

Just now, Matt said:

Law

The Yankees talked up Caleb Durbin after he had a nice AFL performance, with Aaron Boone pretending Durbin might be their second baseman to start the year, but this trade shows that was all a smokescreen. Durbin can run, and he can put the ball in play, but he has next to no power. His average exit velocity in AAA was 83 mph, his Barrel rate was just 3 percent, and his EV50 (the average exit velocity of the top 50 percent of his batted balls) was 92.3, which would have ranked last in the majors by almost 2 mph. He’s 5-foot-6 and already maxed out, so I’m skeptical that he can add any strength to improve his contact quality. He’s played all three skill positions on the infield and dabbled a little in left and center, but doesn’t have the arm for shortstop or third. He might be a good last guy on the bench because he has some speed and puts the ball in play at such a high rate (his strikeout rate in Triple A last year was just 9.9 percent), but I don’t see anything more.

Tell us how you really feel, Keith. 

Sounds a lot like his reports on Scooter Gennett (who went on to put up 1,135 PAs of 124 wRC+ from ages 27-28).

[brewers888]

I am thrilled to be rid of Devin who has proven himself to not be worthy of the big moment as he choked away our series last season and has always been shaky in the playoffs.

I wanted to move on from him last offseason when he had more value and maybe we win a series or two last year if we had done so.

As for the return I don't trust that Cortes will stay healthy and hate that we only have one year of control. I would like to see him moved if we can get good value but if not we just have to hope he stays healthy enough to trade at the deadline or get the compensation draft pick.

To me Durbin is more likely to be a last man off the bench type than any sort of solid starter and a team with little to no pop after losing Willy is still in desperate need of some power.

All in all I would have liked to see more of a long term return which we probably would have received had we traded Williams a year earlier but just getting rid of him at all just might be addition by subtraction even if I am not a fan of what we got for a top reliever.

Teams are always desperate to add starting pitching so if we can trade Cortes for longer term players the deal would be that much better. 

[brewers888]

11 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Sounds a lot like his reports on Scooter Gennett (who went on to put up 1,135 PAs of 124 wRC+ from ages 27-28).

Or Monasterio and Dunn who have little to no value at all.

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Everyone knew that the Cubs "overpaid" at the time to try to break a hundred year curse.

The Chapman trade had as much affect on the reliever market as the Counsell contract had on the manager market.

I never said that Chapman blew up the reliever market, I was just pointing out that the reliever market at that time was much, much stronger for sellers than it is in the present day market. Which it wasn’t. It wasn’t just Chapman being the only exception to the market. Andrew Miller was another reliever at that deadline who brought a very gaudy return.

[homer]

31 minutes ago, Matt said:

Law

The Yankees talked up Caleb Durbin after he had a nice AFL performance, with Aaron Boone pretending Durbin might be their second baseman to start the year, but this trade shows that was all a smokescreen. Durbin can run, and he can put the ball in play, but he has next to no power. His average exit velocity in AAA was 83 mph, his Barrel rate was just 3 percent, and his EV50 (the average exit velocity of the top 50 percent of his batted balls) was 92.3, which would have ranked last in the majors by almost 2 mph. He’s 5-foot-6 and already maxed out, so I’m skeptical that he can add any strength to improve his contact quality. He’s played all three skill positions on the infield and dabbled a little in left and center, but doesn’t have the arm for shortstop or third. He might be a good last guy on the bench because he has some speed and puts the ball in play at such a high rate (his strikeout rate in Triple A last year was just 9.9 percent), but I don’t see anything more.

Tell us how you really feel, Keith. 

reminds me of my sig

[homer]

"That guy was a bum! Why didn't we get more in return for a bum?"