2025 Misc MLB News Thread

[BruisedCrew]

On 9/20/2025 at 3:14 PM, markedman5 said:

These incredible collapses/miracles seem to be happening more often of late.

 

I would bet that any Tiger fan who posted on a message board on September 10 that the division race wasn't over yet would have been greeted with comments to the effect that they don't understand math and probability. They would also have been told  how difficult it would be for a team to make up 9 games with 16 to play, even with 6 head to head games against the team they are chasing.. After all, all the Tigers would have to do is play .500 the rest of the way and it would be impossible for the Guardians to catch them.

The Tiger fan might have responded by pointing out the improbable charge that the Tigers made to overtake the Twins for a wild card spot last season as a reminder of how quickly things can change.

Of course, since September 10, the Guardians have gone 10-1, including the 3 game sweep over the Tigers, and the Tigers have gone 1-6 in the games against teams other than the Guardians.

Some times "just playing .500" doesn't happen, even for teams that are 22 games over .500 and have the  best record in their league.

And some times teams that are barely over .500 suddenly put together winning streaks that would be considered nearly impossible by someone looking at projections and probabilities.. Like the 2021 Cardinals who won 17 in a row as part of a 19-3 finish that lifted them to a wild card berth.

[owbc]

2 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

I would bet that any Tiger fan who posted on a message board on September 10 that the division race wasn't over yet would have been greeted with comments to the effect that they don't understand math and probability. They would also have been told  how difficult it would be for a team to make up 9 games with 16 to play, even with 6 head to head games against the team they are chasing.. After all, all the Tigers would have to do is play .500 the rest of the way and it would be impossible for the Guardians to catch them.

The Tiger fan might have responded by pointing out the improbable charge that the Tigers made to overtake the Twins for a wild card spot last season as a reminder of how quickly things can change.

Of course, since September 10, the Guardians have gone 10-1, including the 3 game sweep over the Tigers, and the Tigers have gone 1-6 in the games against teams other than the Guardians.

Some times "just playing .500" doesn't happen, even for teams that are 22 games over .500 and have the  best record in their league.

And some times teams that are barely over .500 suddenly put together winning streaks that would be considered nearly impossible by someone looking at projections and probabilities.. Like the 2021 Cardinals who won 17 in a row as part of a 19-3 finish that lifted them to a wild card berth.

The Tigers still have 85% playoff odds and 63% odds of winning the division. Nobody knows how long their cold streak is going to last. It might end tomorrow. The 99.9% playoff odds are still more likely to be correct than not. 

Low probability events do happen quite often given how many teams and games there are. I do wonder if streaky teams are more common in September though. It seems like the pressure sometimes sinks a struggling team. 

 

[BruisedCrew]

2 hours ago, owbc said:

The Tigers still have 85% playoff odds and 63% odds of winning the division. Nobody knows how long their cold streak is going to last. It might end tomorrow. The 99.9% playoff odds are still more likely to be correct than not. 

Low probability events do happen quite often given how many teams and games there are. I do wonder if streaky teams are more common in September though. It seems like the pressure sometimes sinks a struggling team. 

 

Part of the point of this is that, even if the Tigers end up winning the division, it will not be the cakewalk it looked like a few weeks ago.

From a fan’s perspective, when your team  has a lead like that you don’t want to deal with the kind of anxiety that Tigers fans are having now.

I do think that projection models can’t anticipate the factor of a team feeling the pressure and spiraling into a losing streak. There could also be factors like a key injury or a worn out pitching staff that could make a team perform more poorly than they have the rest of the season. 

[SeaBass]

10 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

Part of the point of this is that, even if the Tigers end up winning the division, it will not be the cakewalk it looked like a few weeks ago.

From a fan’s perspective, when your team  has a lead like that you don’t want to deal with the kind of anxiety that Tigers fans are having now.

I do think that projection models can’t anticipate the factor of a team feeling the pressure and spiraling into a losing streak. There could also be factors like a key injury or a worn out pitching staff that could make a team perform more poorly than they have the rest of the season. 

Nobody said that making the playoffs has to be a cakewalk. If it takes all 162 games then that's what it takes. The Tigers still gave themselves much better chances to make it by building that cushion than if they had to try to chase a team down from behind instead. Either way is possible but I'll take that first option every time.

[BruisedCrew]

42 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

Nobody said that making the playoffs has to be a cakewalk. If it takes all 162 games then that's what it takes. The Tigers still gave themselves much better chances to make it by building that cushion than if they had to try to chase a team down from behind instead. Either way is possible but I'll take that first option every time.

Of course anyone would like to have the cushion.

But there are posters who respond with words like "fearful" and "panic" at the suggestion that a race isn't over even when a team has what looks like a comfortable cushion.

 

[formerlybis]

Bond villains put 007 in their death contraption, walk away, and assume he's dead. This is the same kind of overconfidence that some message board posters display when they belittle those who worry until things are clinched. 

Also, this guy - 

[ReverendBrewmeister]

Tampa Bay Rays getting some new owners. Some new ballpark discussion in the article also.

https://ballparkdigest.com/2025/09/23/tampa-bay-rays-sale-approved-next-up-new-ballpark/

[ReverendBrewmeister]

ABS Challenge System coming in 2026:

https://www.mlb.com/news/abs-challenge-system-mlb-2026

[owbc]

17 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

Part of the point of this is that, even if the Tigers end up winning the division, it will not be the cakewalk it looked like a few weeks ago.

From a fan’s perspective, when your team  has a lead like that you don’t want to deal with the kind of anxiety that Tigers fans are having now.

I do think that projection models can’t anticipate the factor of a team feeling the pressure and spiraling into a losing streak. There could also be factors like a key injury or a worn out pitching staff that could make a team perform more poorly than they have the rest of the season. 

It would be interesting to derive a “fan comfort index” stat for this scenario. Basically “What  is the probability that playoff odds will remain above 90 or 95 percent for the duration of the season?” 
 

Then you could say “we have 99 percent playoff odds overall, but there is a 15% chance of dropping below 95 at some point” or something like that. 

[Vgmastr]

Good lord, when it rains it pours for Detroit.  They were up 2-0 on Cleveland with Skubal dealing.  Bottom of the 6th Cleveland leads off with a bunt hit followed by another bunt where Skubal tries to throw the guy out at first by throwing it between his legs like a center hiking a football and it sails into right field, so Cleveland gets runners on 2nd and 3rd.  Then an infield hit, a wild pitch, a balk and a groundout and suddenly it's 3-2 Cleveland.  

[markedman5]

 

[Frisbee Slider]

16 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

 

If a team has a 99% probability to win a division, I suppose they are allowed to lose the division once every 100 years 🤷‍♂️

I know we get worked up over probabilities sometimes.

[Team Canada]

4 hours ago, Vgmastr said:

Then an infield hit, a wild pitch, a balk and a groundout and suddenly it's 3-2 Cleveland.  

Not mentioned is a 99mph FB hits Fry in the face, then the WP and balk. Skubal was visibly shaken and understandably had trouble pulling it back together after that.

[Underachiever]

Dbacks are going to get the final wild card, aren’t they?

[Brian]

21 hours ago, Team Canada said:

Not mentioned is a 99mph FB hits Fry in the face, then the WP and balk. Skubal was visibly shaken and understandably had trouble pulling it back together after that.

I just seen the news, Guardians DH David Fry taken to hospital after hit in face by Tarik Skubal pitch. Stephen Vogt was very shaken also.   https://www.beaconjournal.com/story/sports/mlb/cleveland-guardians/2025/09/23/david-fry-injury-guardians-tigers-tarik-skubal/86318942007/

 

[BruisedCrew]

Tigers lost to the Guardians again to fall a game behind. They are getting close to missing the playoffs entirely.

Not quite in the same category as the Tigers, but the Blue Jays who had a 5 game lead in the AL East with 11 games to play (incidentally the same position the Brewers were in last week) have lost 6 of 7 and are now tied with the Yankees. 

[wiguy94]

Got a chuckle from this. Alejandro Kirk was thrown out at 1B on a hard hit liner to RF. Don’t see that very often.

 

[AdvantageSchneider]

3 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Tigers lost to the Guardians again to fall a game behind. They are getting close to missing the playoffs entirely.

Not quite in the same category as the Tigers, but the Blue Jays who had a 5 game lead in the AL East with 11 games to play (incidentally the same position the Brewers were in last week) have lost 6 of 7 and are now tied with the Yankees. 

 

Game ends with Kirk being thrown out from RF.  9-3 on your scorecard.  I've seen that play a few times before but usually it was a pitcher batting and it was usually a closer play than that.  Don't think I've ever seen a guy thrown out by what appears to be 2 steps.

[HarryDoyle]

5 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Got a chuckle from this. Alejandro Kirk was thrown out at 1B on a hard hit liner to RF. Don’t see that very often.

 

EV is overrated.

[SeaBass]

Cal Raleigh hit his 60th HR of the season last night. He's played in 155 games (35 as a DH), it's incredibly impressive the season he has put up as a catcher with 7.2 bWAR.

We get pretty good production out of our own catcher, William Contreras, who also plays in a lot of games at catcher with minimal rest but Raleigh's season is clearly on another level.

Does he win MVP? If you're just comparing numbers, Judge is still the man. But I just think with the physical toll of playing that position and now hitting the 60 HR milestone Raleigh could see a nice bump in 1st place votes. It's the one thing that, perhaps, can't be measured by WAR. It's not rare for a catcher to suffer on offense due to the demands of squatting for 120+ games and wearing all that gear through the heat of a summer.

 

[Frisbee Slider]

Aaron Judge does it in New York which is worth bonus points, perhaps legitimately?

[Playing Catch]

4 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Aaron Judge does it in New York which is worth bonus points, perhaps legitimately?

Not if you are justifying a vote for him due to the separation of .OPS, considering the parks involved.

[owbc]

7 hours ago, SeaBass said:

Cal Raleigh hit his 60th HR of the season last night. He's played in 155 games (35 as a DH), it's incredibly impressive the season he has put up as a catcher with 7.2 bWAR.

We get pretty good production out of our own catcher, William Contreras, who also plays in a lot of games at catcher with minimal rest but Raleigh's season is clearly on another level.

Does he win MVP? If you're just comparing numbers, Judge is still the man. But I just think with the physical toll of playing that position and now hitting the 60 HR milestone Raleigh could see a nice bump in 1st place votes. It's the one thing that, perhaps, can't be measured by WAR. It's not rare for a catcher to suffer on offense due to the demands of squatting for 120+ games and wearing all that gear through the heat of a summer.

 

The belief in the Mariners fan/media sphere has been that it's similar to the Judge vs. Ohtani race in 2022 where Ohtani deserved to win based on overall stats alone but Judge got the nod for the milestone HR. So many believe, as you said, that hitting the 60 milestone would break the tie in favor of Raleigh. 

To me it's a no brainer -- there's a reason no catcher had ever hit 50 home runs before, it's ridiculously hard to be an effective hitter with the extra mental and physical constraints of playing catcher. 

Then you throw in the added part about hitting 59 and 60 on a night when your team wins its first division title in 24 years??? Yankees fans can shove it as far as I'm concerned. 

Side note -- he's facing the Rockies' terrible pitching staff again tonight and word is that the Mariners are going to keep playing their starters as long as the #1 seed is in play. If he gets to 62 or 63 and the Mariners pass the Yankees I don't see how you can vote for Judge. 

Side note 2 -- at least on paper the Dodgers have Kershaw scheduled to start Sunday. Imagine that storyline if the AL HR record is in play...

[markedman5]

Marte just robbed a homer in the 9th to preserve a 2-1 win for the Reds.

wow

[RWeeksFan23]

17 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Got a chuckle from this. Alejandro Kirk was thrown out at 1B on a hard hit liner to RF. Don’t see that very often.

 

Wow, that ended the game too..