When does Arnold start to receive some criticism

[brewcrewdue80]

Oh man Wilken is having a player of the month start to his May with 5 HRs already.  I must have looked at his numbers just prior to his May.  The team is going to need 1 of the 3 (Pratt+Made)before season is over without a turnaround from Ortiz and Durbin.

[TURBO]

30 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Oh man Wilken is having a player of the month start to his May with 5 HRs already.  I must have looked at his numbers just prior to his May.  The team is going to need 1 of the 3 (Pratt+Made)before season is over without a turnaround from Ortiz and Durbin.

Are you suggesting the possibility of Made playing with the Brewers THIS season?

Dude...

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, BeerSlide said:

 

I think the acute disappointment in this year's ~.500 clib is largely in part to how he's helped us overachieve in previous seasons. 

Very well said.

[Jopal78]

18 hours ago, brewers888 said:

Cortes was damaged goods who was injured most of last season so I completely disagree that it was a good return.

You realize that major league teams have a medical staff who review a player’s chart, films, exam notes, etc. before they agree to acquire a player?

This would be especially so in a player who has a significant cash guarantee and missed time with a forearm injury last year.
 

So your criticism here is based on your own opinion they traded for a player who was “damaged goods” Presumably because he missed time in ‘24 with a forearm injury.  That opinion ignores Cortes ended last season healthy with 1 2/3 innings in game 3 of the WS. It also ignores the Brewers would’ve reviewed his medicals and been satisfied before agreeing to acquire him, and third he was healthy in spring training this year. 

[Brian]

10 hours ago, TURBO said:

Are you suggesting the possibility of Made playing with the Brewers THIS season?

Dude...

Evidently he thinks the Mudcats and Shuckers are the Nashville Sounds. 

[CheezWizHed]

To be fair, Arnold received criticism from day 1 of his hiring... 

Also, Williams bWAR is -0.8 while Durbin (-0.2) and Nestor (-0.3) make this a clear win on the trade.

[biedergb]

I have given him a fair bit of criticism, and I think he is good, but sometimes GMs get too much credit (like coaches) for the successes, and sometimes too much blame for the disappointments.

I think the criticisms are valid for Arnold - as I still contend his best moves took place immediately after taking over in late 2022 (Contreras deal; Megill trade, T. Myers signing), but really he has not done that great. Looking at the return for Burnes and Williams has been pretty low, and we have traded several assets for many players who haven't worked out (Clarke, Bauers, Dunn) or still to be determined (Hudson, Priester).

The draft/IFA has done really well, but he did not necessarily set up those teams.

And Mark A. budget limits this team so very much.

But still Arnold has missed on trades or had trades where the net has not added up to much, and we really haven't seen that great impact deal (FA, trade) that has moved the needle.

[kestrel79]

Like a few others have said I think it's a miracle that this team is anywhere close to .500 right now with all the injuries, and a luke warm start from all 3 of our bigger stars. If all 3 of those guys are mashing right now, I don't think this post gets made and we aren't complaining about these guys as much as we are and calling for the reining GM of the year's head 1.5 months into the season.

If these guys get hot, and the pitching comes back from injury strong I think we're gonna be ok and in the hunt.

[Brewer77]

21 hours ago, brewers888 said:

Cortes was damaged goods with only one year of control and Durbin is essentially a throw in so I think the return was extremely light but the bigger mistake was not moving Devin a year earlier. We have a similar decision to make with Freddy who they hopefully can extend but if not he should be moved at this deadline for a maximum return.

Nah, keep Freddy to lead a young rotation next year and just get the comp pick if you can’t extend him. We’re trying to win now - Freddy is cheap and the farm system is already in very good shape

[Sixtolezcano]

On 5/11/2025 at 7:51 AM, Brian said:

Seems to me the budget of Mark Attanasio may be handcuffing him. 

Mark is the number 1 problem in the quality with player acquisition. Arnold is a distant number 2.

[Jopal78]

1 minute ago, Sixtolezcano said:

Mark is the number 1 problem in the quality with player acquisition. Arnold is a distant number 2.

Correction, the Brewers tiny market is the number 1 problem with player acquisition.

[shanedog19]

I would love to see the team call up Brock Wilken and Misiorowski and let them play at the big league level for a while. We aren't going to contend with the Dodgers and the better NL teams with Caleb Durbin and Quinn Priester, so go with the high ceiling youngsters and see what happens. If we aren't in contention at the deadline, we sell and restock the farm system. If we are in contention, it likely means Wilken and Miz are playing well.

[Brian]

44 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Correction, the Brewers tiny market is the number 1 problem with player acquisition.

Unlike the NFL, NBA and NHL, baseball does not have a salary cap. It’s not impossible to go deep into the playoffs with a modest payroll. But it’s not easy and it’s not easy. “You have to take shots and hope that it works,” Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

17 minutes ago, Brian said:

Unlike the NFL, NBA and NHL, baseball does not have a salary cap. It’s not impossible to go deep into the playoffs with a modest payroll. But it’s not easy and it’s not easy. “You have to take shots and hope that it works,” Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said. 

Yes, but in the smallest market in all of baseball, those "shots" need to be in-season trade acquisitions to bolster a playoff-caliber roster that gets built through draft/develop + pre arbitration extensions - it's a fool's errand and strawman argument to think they should try and compete in free agency with the huge market behemoths to try and sign the veteran star free agents.  There may be no salary cap, but that doesn't mean the smallest markets can compete with signing the best players in the open market - that's actually proven to make it more difficult than if there was some sort of cap that only a handful of teams would ever dream of exceeding, and forcing premier free agents to seek more money with other teams.  Adding all the deferred contract shenanigans to skirt/limit luxury tax penalties and it's even more egregious.

The Brewers have enough in their minor league system to be significant players at this year's trade deadline to try and fill holes for the stretch run - if their team is good enough to be considered a contender this season another month or so into the schedule.  The alternative option is for them to be soft sellers at this year's deadline and make way for some more of their prospects to get their feet wet at the MLB level.  Such is life for the Brewers, like it or not.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think Wilken could be a fast mover if he keeps heating up, and frankly should be - not sure if this season as a Brewer happens, but seeing him with a legit shot at the everyday 3B or 1B option in Milwaukee next Spring Training makes too much sense if he's past that HBP to the face last year and continues to put up gaudy #'s in AA/AAA this year (despite a still very low BA).  He's got the pop and potential to be an everyday corner IF this organization has lacked pretty much since Prince was a Brewer.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, Sixtolezcano said:

Mark is the number 1 problem in the quality with player acquisition. Arnold is a distant number 2.

To start, I guess Mark must not be good at convincing the rest of Brewers' ownership to set a bunch of their money that's also tied up and not just sitting in Venmo accounts on fire.

With incredibly rare exceptions (dying Illitch Siedler and that's about it), owners aren't sending GM's their own cash to sign pricey free agents in MLB - the market size /revenue those clubs generate are what write those checks, not the owners.

Not that those facts will ever change some people's assumptions that Mark A. sleeps on pillows filled with cash, but whatever. 

[owbc]

Agree with those saying that we are right at national expectations and arguably overperforming given injuries.

I also agree that some of the recent trades have been whiffs, which we can’t afford. 

I get being frustrated at the budget but I never see us pointing to other small market teams that we should try to emulate. Instead, everyone else is pointing at us. We’re the model that fans of other teams want to copy.

[Playing Catch]

It's the highest baseball league in the world. Arnold can be criticized from day 1, and penthouse to outhouse can happen quickly. With that said, if the question is, "When should Arnold be on the hotseat?" I think we're a ways off yet, as others have stated.

Per everyone's hangup about 3rd base, here's some context. You can sort by 2025 salaries, to show what $10M can get you.

There wasn't much available in a trade, in terms of guys that are CLEARLY destined to outperform what the Brewers already had.

Last season, Jazz Chisholm cost the Yankees a strong return. And as I always mention, it takes two to tango in any FA or trade acquisition, so "blaming" anyone on the Brewers side of things only goes so far, unless people are willing to overpay either in dollars, or prospects.

The Devin Williams trade? I feel like it was simply shifting 2025 pitching value from the backend of games to the front end, and "hey look! A free MLB-ready infielder!"

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, biedergb said:

we really haven't seen that great impact deal (FA, trade) that has moved the needle.

You don't think trading peanuts for a Top Two catcher in baseball moved the needle? Extending Chourio so we can keep him beyond his first 5/6 years didn't move the needle either? Tough crowd.

Looking at position players since 2023 it's mostly homegrown guys and Yelich/Adames who have provided most of the WAR, but as far as Arnold acquisitions there is Contreras (12.0 WAR) at the top, Joey Ortiz (2.7 WAR) & Blake Perkins (2.6 WAR) in 7th/9th, then guys like Mark Canha (0.9 WAR), Rhys Hoskins (0.8 WAR), Carlos Santana (0.7 WAR), Eric Haase (0.6 WAR), and Jake Bauers (0.5 WAR) who have provided more marginal value.

Pitching side is quite a bit more Arnold heavy with Tobias Myers (3.8 rWAR), Colin Rea (3.3 rWAR), Wade Miley (3.3 rWAR), Bryan Hudson (2.6 rWAR), Bryse Wilson (2.3 rWAR), Joel Payamps (2.3 rWAR), Trevor Megill (1.9 rWAR), and Jared Koenig (1.9 rWAR) taking up eight of the nine spots between #4 and #12 and then guys like Elvis Peguero (1.4 rWAR), Aaron Civale (1.3 rWAR), Chad Patrick (1.3 rWAR), Jose Quintana (1.0 rWAR), Julio Teheran (0.8 rWAR), Joe Ross (0.7 rWAR), Enoli Paredes (0.7 rWAR), Jakob Junis (0.6 rWAR), and Nick Mears (0.6 WAR) filling up most of the next dozen spots.

Add it all up and on the position player side there are 18 players to put up at least 0.5 WAR with the Brewers since 2023, Arnold acquired eight of those players totaling 20.8 WAR of the 53.0 WAR total.

On the pitching side there are 25 players to put up at least 0.5 rWAR with the Brewers since 2023, Arnold acquired 17 of those players totaling 29.8 rWAR of the 55.0 rWAR total.

With the negative momentum hanging over the team from the deadline in 2022 to Stearns taking the last year of his contract off at the end of that season (and then again a year later with Counsell's heel turn) it's not hard to imagine a parallel reality where the Brewers have 365 games of mediocrity (or worse) under their belt as of today instead of two runaway Division Titles and 41 games of mediocrity. 

Leaving Smith unprotected is the only real blemish on his record for me so far, early returns on the Priester trade aren't great but realistically we won't know for a couple two tree years who "won" the trade depending how the prospects/pick progress for BOS and to what extent MIL can develop Priester into a useful SP twixt now and then. 

[JosephC]

27 minutes ago, owbc said:

I get being frustrated at the budget but I never see us pointing to other small market teams that we should try to emulate. Instead, everyone else is pointing at us. We’re the model that fans of other teams want to copy.

Yes, which is why I continue to make the argument that MLB needs to contract and not expand.  If the owners want to continue with the same lopsided economic system, and all indications are that they want to, there is no reason for small market major league baseball to exist.

Just think, the Brewers are the model that teams want to emulate.  This is Attanasio's 21st full season of being an owner.  In the first 20 seasons they have won 0 World Series, have won 2 playoff series and have won the division 5 times.  If that is the high-level mark that teams should shoot for, then why even bother?  

[Playing Catch]

6 minutes ago, JosephC said:

Yes, which is why I continue to make the argument that MLB needs to contract and not expand.  If the owners want to continue with the same lopsided economic system, and all indications are that they want to, there is no reason for small market major league baseball to exist.

Right. Here's the payroll breakdown for total AAV. Even if Attanasio told the rest of the Brewers ownership group to pound sand (hehe), and he added $70M to the payroll, that would put the Brewers exactly in the middle, 15th, among MLB spenders. If we all pretend that the Brewers were only competing against the bottom 15 teams in baseball, Attanasio and Arnold's performance would be incredible.

[owbc]

15 minutes ago, JosephC said:

Yes, which is why I continue to make the argument that MLB needs to contract and not expand.  If the owners want to continue with the same lopsided economic system, and all indications are that they want to, there is no reason for small market major league baseball to exist.

Just think, the Brewers are the model that teams want to emulate.  This is Attanasio's 21st full season of being an owner.  In the first 20 seasons they have won 0 World Series, have won 2 playoff series and have won the division 5 times.  If that is the high-level mark that teams should shoot for, then why even bother?  

Tampa Bay and Milwaukee are indeed the high level mark for small markets in the current economic system. Nobody has figured out how to do any better than that with a bottom half payroll. Kansas City won a World Series but also had some god awful years. 

I absolutely agree that the economic system needs major reform. That’s a different topic than “Is our GM doing a bad job?” 

[biedergb]

4 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

You don't think trading peanuts for a Top Two catcher in baseball moved the needle? Extending Chourio so we can keep him beyond his first 5/6 years didn't move the needle either? Tough crowd.

Yeah the Contreras deal was a masterpiece.  I was saying since that offseason (which was transition), we haven't seen much that has moved the needle.

And I completely ignored the extension, since I was most focused on trades/FA. So yes the Chourio extension (knowing and believing enough to do that) is a signature move, so I stand corrected on that. But the other FA, trades are all lower level, but in reality the much despised (at the time) Hader trade has been so much better than the other trades (Hader led to Contreras via Ruiz; and also netted us Gasser). 

 

8 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Pitching side is quite a bit more Arnold heavy with Tobias Myers (3.8 rWAR), Colin Rea (3.3 rWAR), Wade Miley (3.3 rWAR), Bryan Hudson (2.6 rWAR), Bryse Wilson (2.3 rWAR), Joel Payamps (2.3 rWAR), Trevor Megill (1.9 rWAR), and Jared Koenig (1.9 rWAR) taking up eight of the nine spots between #4 and #12 and then guys like Elvis Peguero (1.4 rWAR), Aaron Civale (1.3 rWAR), Chad Patrick (1.3 rWAR), Jose Quintana (1.0 rWAR), Julio Teheran (0.8 rWAR), Joe Ross (0.7 rWAR), Enoli Paredes (0.7 rWAR), Jakob Junis (0.6 rWAR), and Nick Mears (0.6 WAR) filling up most of the next dozen spots.

I hear you, and Myers was in that winter '22 / spring '23 that I put in that transition, along with Rea, Miley, Megill, Payamps, Perkins so I was feeling that after that inital period his moves have more 'meh'. Even Civale, has been good, but not great. And the Teheran, Ross, Paredes, Junis are the types of moves that fill innings and keep the team running, and are very solid moves. And I am not saying that he is not a good or even great GM, but that his moves over the past 18 months for example have left a lot to be desired. The Toro for Patrick swap was great, but he has had many moves too that haven't netted much (Dunn, Clarke, Bauers as noted; even Hudson had one great 1/2 season last year). Koenig was a great find and another of the ones I missed.

 

So very good, but definitely worth criticism if we look at the meager returns for Burnes/Williams who were premium pitchers, the loss of Smith, and the minimal return on multiple prospects (who themselves may not pan out, but could have gotten more). And I hope to be proven wrong, or see the next move as the one that is a signature move that gives the '25 or '26 team that key ingredient.

[treego14]

Matt Arnold is very fine!

MLB is the true source of our whine!

We need a fair nine vs. nine!

It's time to share the dime!

[Playing Catch]

4 minutes ago, treego14 said:

Matt Arnold is very fine!

MLB is the true source of our whine!

We need a fair nine vs. nine!

It's time to share the dime!

One of your best, IMO.