When does Arnold start to receive some criticism

[sveumrules]

37 minutes ago, JosephC said:

 In the first 20 seasons they have won 0 World Series, have won 2 playoff series and have won the division 5 times.  If that is the high-level mark that teams should shoot for, then why even bother?  

Because the regular season also happens (and is considerably longer than the postseason).

Over the twelve seasons before Attanasio bought the team they had a losing record every year and the 2nd worst record in MLB among non-expansion teams.

Over the twenty plus years since they have won the 8th most games in MLB.

[liveforoctober]

1 hour ago, JosephC said:

Yes, which is why I continue to make the argument that MLB needs to contract and not expand.  If the owners want to continue with the same lopsided economic system, and all indications are that they want to, there is no reason for small market major league baseball to exist.

Just think, the Brewers are the model that teams want to emulate.  This is Attanasio's 21st full season of being an owner.  In the first 20 seasons they have won 0 World Series, have won 2 playoff series and have won the division 5 times.  If that is the high-level mark that teams should shoot for, then why even bother?  

I typically enjoy your contributions, but you know full well this isn't it.

By my count, in the last twenty years 12 different teams have won a World Series. I have no idea how many teams "had a real chance" during that time but I would say we could make an argument that we have had at least 3 teams that could have gotten it done.

We should get rid of the Brewers and baseball in Milwaukee because we are on the smaller side and baseball needs to contract? I can't tell you how much fun I've had being a fan of an annual underdog that overachieves ... you are going to take that from me and the rest of us because we haven't won a title? What are you talking about?

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:.

The Brewers have enough in their minor league system to be significant players at this year's trade deadline to try and fill holes for the stretch run - if their team is good enough to be considered a contender this season another month or so into the schedule.  The alternative option is for them to be soft sellers at this year's deadline and make way for some more of their prospects to get their feet wet at the MLB level.  Such is life for the Brewers, like it or not.

 Sabathia’s WAR as a Brewers was 4.9. Michael Brantley, one of the players who went over to Cleveland in that deal had a career WAR of 34.1. (14.1 WAR in his first six seasons). Lorenzo Cain had a 24.6 WAR with the Royals after going over in the Greinke (3.4 WAR as a Brewers) trade. 
 

In other words, to obtain the 8.3 WAR Sabathia and Greinke provided to Milwaukee cost the Brewers at least 38 WAR. Attanasio “taking a shot” in both ‘08 and ‘11 were great things for the fans as the playoffs probably wouldn’t have happened without those deals, but it also came at a tremendous price.
 
It is also likely explains why the Brewers try to develop their own core and are primarily shoppers for role players, because the cost to the organization is much much less. 

[owbc]

6 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

 Sabathia’s WAR as a Brewers was 4.9. Michael Brantley, one of the players who went over to Cleveland in that deal had a career WAR of 34.1. (14.1 WAR in his first six seasons). Lorenzo Cain had a 24.6 WAR with the Royals after going over in the Greinke (3.4 WAR as a Brewers) trade. 
 

In other words, to obtain the 8.3 WAR Sabathia and Greinke provided to Milwaukee cost the Brewers at least 38 WAR. Attanasio “taking a shot” in both ‘08 and ‘11 were great things for the fans as the playoffs probably wouldn’t have happened without those deals, but it also came at a tremendous price.
 
It is also likely explains why the Brewers try to develop their own core and are primarily shoppers for role players, because the cost to the organization is much much less. 

Exactly, not to mention the financial incentives being highly stacked in favor of pre-arbitration value. 
 

 

That said, there was some benefit to the Melvin “all in” approach because we got some highly memorable seasons out of it, while our more conservative approach to consistent winning is yielding mostly pain in the first round of the playoffs. The biggest question in my head is how much of that is bad luck vs. how much is it caused by running guys out there with minimal experience into high leverage postseason games? 

[Fear The Chorizo]

11 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

 Sabathia’s WAR as a Brewers was 4.9. Michael Brantley, one of the players who went over to Cleveland in that deal had a career WAR of 34.1. (14.1 WAR in his first six seasons). Lorenzo Cain had a 24.6 WAR with the Royals after going over in the Greinke (3.4 WAR as a Brewers) trade. 
 

In other words, to obtain the 8.3 WAR Sabathia and Greinke provided to Milwaukee cost the Brewers at least 38 WAR. Attanasio “taking a shot” in both ‘08 and ‘11 were great things for the fans as the playoffs probably wouldn’t have happened without those deals, but it also came at a tremendous price.
 
It is also likely explains why the Brewers try to develop their own core and are primarily shoppers for role players, because the cost to the organization is much much less. 

I fully agree, but a small market team has to be willing to sacrifice longterm WAR from prospects who may turn into good mlb players for rentals that could lead teams to a championship.  As long as the organization is well run in the draft and develop department, it's easier to replace that production longterm with other cheap, in-house prospects.  I think of it as the currency the Brewers can afford to spend on improving their chances to win a world series compared to giving out 9 figure free agent contracts like candy in free agency.

[Thurston Fluff]

7 minutes ago, owbc said:

Exactly, not to mention the financial incentives being highly stacked in favor of pre-arbitration value. 
 

 

That said, there was some benefit to the Melvin “all in” approach because we got some highly memorable seasons out of it, while our more conservative approach to consistent winning is yielding mostly pain in the first round of the playoffs. The biggest question in my head is how much of that is bad luck vs. how much is it caused by running guys out there with minimal experience into high leverage postseason games? 

We had two highly memorable seasons that ended with a playoff appearance in his 13 years as GM. Granted the first several years he was rebuilding the entire organization top to bottom but that still left about ten years with two playoff appearances. I'm not trying to disparage Melvin. I thought he was a good GM and left us if far better position than he inherited. The problem was the all in strategy. It left us with fewer playoff appearances, depleted our farm making the next shot further away and got us the same number of championships.

[Fear The Chorizo]

14 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

We had two highly memorable seasons that ended with a playoff appearance in his 13 years as GM. Granted the first several years he was rebuilding the entire organization top to bottom but that still left about ten years with two playoff appearances. I'm not trying to disparage Melvin. I thought he was a good GM and left us if far better position than he inherited. The problem was the all in strategy. It left us with fewer playoff appearances, depleted our farm making the next shot further away and got us the same number of championships.

The issue wasn't going all in for 2008 or prior to the 2012 season - it was that the drafting between those seasons wasn't good enough to bring in another core of young talent to avoid having to slog through a few seasons of non-contention afterwards....and those teams were built on hitting with poor defense, and had no organizational pitching depth compared to what the Brewers have now.

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

 

Leaving Smith unprotected is the only real blemish on his record for me so far, early returns on the Priester trade aren't great but realistically we won't know for a couple two tree years who "won" the trade depending how the prospects/pick progress for BOS and to what extent MIL can develop Priester into a useful SP twixt now and then. 

I would include dealing away Reese Olson for Norris. Hated it, not just after the fact but in real time.

I would've held the line rather than deal Yophery for Priester, but you're right in that the full verdict on that one won't come in for awhile.

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I would include dealing away Reese Olson for Norris. Hated it, not just after the fact but in real time.

Agreed, but that was 2021 deadline so still Stearns.

[Jim French Stepstool]

19 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Agreed, but that was 2021 deadline so still Stearns.

Ooooops.......😁

[Sixtolezcano]

On 5/11/2025 at 1:22 PM, brewfanmn said:

He didn’t? The current starting 3B was acquired this offseason and is a 25 years old holding his own in his first taste of the big leagues with 6 more years of team control

What move should have been made? Checking in so far on the most commonly desired names this offseason:

-Alec Bohm has a 65 OPS+ and has graded among the worst defensive 3B in the league his whole career

-Ryan McMahon has an 87 OPS+, has been a below average hitter every year of his career, is making $12 million and is owed another $32 million after this year

-Brett Baty was sent to AAA before the end of April. His season line is OK (106 OPS+) after hitting 3 HRs the last few days, but he also has a 30% K to 4% BB ratio and has always been a liability defensively

-Brandon Drury has not been able to make the White Sox roster and has a 67 OPS+ in AAA for them

-Jose Iglesias has a 63 OPS+

-Luis Rengifo has a 47 OPS+

-Yoan Moncada has been good in his 47 plate appearances, but has already spent a month the IL which is the known risk with him. Durbin has played more than Moncada, so the Brewers would have had even more Dunn or Capra so far if they had gone after Moncada instead. He’s also making $5 million, so you probably don’t have Quintana on this team if you have Moncada

Also, none of the trade candidates listed were actually traded by their teams. It takes two to tango

So what exactly were the obvious 3B moves missed?

Yelich, a lottery ticket and $ (?) should get you Ryan McMahon with a similar 90 OPS+. However, I don’t think the Rockies need an aged DH ground ball machine.

[Samurai Bucky]

On 5/11/2025 at 7:41 AM, Jopal78 said:

They’re Brewers have started the season with 5  players hitting under .240, the Cubs have started the season with 6 players on pace for 30+ homeruns. 

My son had a few sessions with Justin Stone, the current director of hitting with the Cubs, before he took the job with the Cubs.  I was extremely impressed.  I equate his technique to be similar to the "pitching lab" the Brewers have (from my limited understanding).

Of course, I think a lot of teams are now using the same type of tools.

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

Yelich, a lottery ticket and $ (?) should get you Ryan McMahon with a similar 90 OPS+. However, I don’t think the Rockies need an aged DH ground ball machine.

Making this type of move would be when Arnold should get fired.

 

[brewmann04]

Should have found a way to keep Smith blew that. The recent trade seems to give up a bit for a meh Starter 

[brewcrewdue80]

On 5/11/2025 at 9:20 PM, TURBO said:

Are you suggesting the possibility of Made playing with the Brewers THIS season?

Dude...

I'm suggesting to with Ortiz below .500 OPS and Durbin below 560 OPS.  Below Uecker career ops avg.  Frelick is crashing down from his start and that likely craters in the 650s.  

If come Aug 1st and Ortiz and Durbin aren't hitting an approach near 700OPS. You have to consider it if Made, Pratt, or Wilken are exceeding expectations with higher upsides than those 2.

[liveforoctober]

25 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

I'm suggesting to with Ortiz below .500 OPS and Durbin below 560 OPS.  Below Uecker career ops avg.  Frelick is crashing down from his start and that likely craters in the 650s.  

If come Aug 1st and Ortiz and Durbin aren't hitting an approach near 700OPS. You have to consider it if Made, Pratt, or Wilken are exceeding expectations with higher upsides than those 2.

So Made is in Carolina right now, which is our low A affiliate. For him to join Milwaukee we would be jumping him past Appleton (High A), Biloxi (Double A) and Nashville (Triple A). I think the previous poster is asking about him because I can't imagine that kind of movement, especially for a position player, has happened ever in the last 20 years. Someone can help me out but Harper might be the fastest mover I can remember? Soto? They both debuted at 19 I think. Made turned 18 just a few days ago. It would be sensational if Made played well enough this year to garner a few at bats in Biloxi before the year is over.

The other two guys we can quarrel over.

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, liveforoctober said:

So Made is in Carolina right now, which is our low A affiliate. For him to join Milwaukee we would be jumping him past Appleton (High A), Biloxi (Double A) and Nashville (Triple A). I think the previous poster is asking about him because I can't imagine that kind of movement, especially for a position player, has happened ever in the last 20 years. Someone can help me out but Harper might be the fastest mover I can remember? Soto? They both debuted at 19 I think. Made turned 18 just a few days ago. It would be sensational if Made played well enough this year to garner a few at bats in Biloxi before the year is over.

The other two guys we can quarrel over.

Over 20 years ago, but Pujols played mostly in low-A ball & Yount played short season-A ball. But both went to the majors the next year, not the same year.

With the rules regarding FA & arbitration, bringing Made to Milwaukee now would be nuts. It would be nuts without those rules, too.

[endaround]

Made is hitting well enough to get to AA at some point this year but more than that is very risky.  Players can get brought up too early and hinder their career.  Wilken likely should be on the move to AAA now given his age and his current offense. He could be in Milwaukee this year given the lack of alternatives.  Pratt isn't hitting well enough in AA to earn a midseason move. It might still happen to open a spot for Made, but a wRC+ of 109 in AA isn't a rush to the majors number.

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, endaround said:

Made is hitting well enough to get to AA at some point this year but more than that is very risky.  Players can get brought up too early and hinder their career.  Wilken likely should be on the move to AAA now given his age and his current offense. He could be in Milwaukee this year given the lack of alternatives.  Pratt isn't hitting well enough in AA to earn a midseason move. It might still happen to open a spot for Made, but a wRC+ of 109 in AA isn't a rush to the majors number.

Wilken isn’t on the 40 man roster. He’d really have to absolutely lay waste to minor league pitching (not a .235 batting average) to jump from AA to AAA, be added to the 40 man roster and get promoted to the majors in 4+ months. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

30 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Wilken isn’t on the 40 man roster. He’d really have to absolutely lay waste to minor league pitching (not a .235 batting average) to jump from AA to AAA, be added to the 40 man roster and get promoted to the majors in 4+ months. 

Yes, but that 0.235 average is deceiving given a horribly slow start - that's actually jumped up like 100 points in a couple weeks.  BA is 0.260 over his last month or so.

With Wilken being a college draftee with elite power - if he continues his recent hot streak at AA there shouldn't be anything blocking him from a AAA promotion soon, and frankly there is plenty of 40 man roster fodder to DFA/option/trade to get him to the majors once he proves he's ready.  Agreed that time isn't now or in the very near future, but I tend to throw out Wilken's 2024 #'s because of the HBP to the face.  If he's hovering at or above a 1.000 OPS consistently I don't care where his BA sits and he should be steadily working towards Milwaukee.

[Fear The Chorizo]

3 hours ago, endaround said:

Made is hitting well enough to get to AA at some point this year but more than that is very risky.  Players can get brought up too early and hinder their career.  Wilken likely should be on the move to AAA now given his age and his current offense. He could be in Milwaukee this year given the lack of alternatives.  Pratt isn't hitting well enough in AA to earn a midseason move. It might still happen to open a spot for Made, but a wRC+ of 109 in AA isn't a rush to the majors number.

Made's bat could play up a few levels from where he's at, but defensively he needs more time to develop - which is totally ok given the fact he just turned 18.  

[Brian]

On 5/11/2025 at 5:25 PM, markedman5 said:

Last year after the season

” when is a big market going to steal Arnold like they did with  Stearns? “
 

Brewers get off to a slow start

” When is Arnold going to start being criticized ?”

Let’s let the season play out……fans are notoriously reactionary.

Brewers are likely never going to be a team that just rolls every season…….as has been mentioned there were not any realistic options that were better at 3rd base this season…..and when your pitching staff gets decimated and your best hitters are struggling it’s not surprising that it’s been a tough start.

1 game under 500 is actually ok considering all of the above.

 

Hard to be a good GM if your strapped financially. 

[dlk9s]

This thread reminded me that I expected the GM to bat 1.000 on every move. How disappointing.

[TURBO]

15 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

I'm suggesting to with Ortiz below .500 OPS and Durbin below 560 OPS.  Below Uecker career ops avg.  Frelick is crashing down from his start and that likely craters in the 650s.  

If come Aug 1st and Ortiz and Durbin aren't hitting an approach near 700OPS. You have to consider it if Made, Pratt, or Wilken are exceeding expectations with higher upsides than those 2.

There is ZERO chance Made plays with the Brewers this year, none, nada, zip, just not the way things work.

[igor67]

Wilken is unlikely as well, but without a solid argument otherwise I'm definitely in the move him to AAA and give him the chance to show that he should be an option down the stretch.