Pratt signs extension for 8/$50M

[tmwiese55]

With the so-so hitting I haven't really known what to think on him, or even what the org thought on him.  This means they're pretty darn confident he'll at least be starter quality.   Also, seeing him up close in ST it seems he's tacked on some mass and of course his frame has room to tack on more. So there is potential there for a hitting leap.   At this point  you generally have to trust Brewers assessments, so this makes me fairly confident. Of course, there's no guarantees and they're not right about everything so we'll see.

Think this might also show some of the reasoning behind moving Durbin. If they have this much confidence in him he's likely on the radar to come up later this year if needed, and for sure next year.  Thus making Durbin expendable and better to sell high on him rather than lower value if has a down year and/or becomes a utility guy later this year or in spring next year.

[wallus]

I kept reading the team is very high on him and this proves that they are. There is some risk here but normally these work out for teams.

[beekay414]

Think this might be the first time in MLB history we've seen an extension like this and the plan for the player is to stay in the minors. 

[RobertCrawley]

Someone please tell me he's really really good.

[liveforoctober]

5 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

Think this might be the first time in MLB history we've seen an extension like this and the plan for the player is to stay in the minors. 

I was just going to say this. Chourio signed his contract in December  in the off season and you assumed he was a Major Leaguer immediately. We are now paying Pratt and *knocks on wood* if there is a work stoppage we might not see him in Milwaukee until 2028.

[Bulldogboy]

I don't know what to think really although I do trust Arnold. Pratt has to hit but I'm sure his D is legit. Truth be told if Pratt was sure he was going to be a stud would he sign? Not sure even he knows what his future holds but I hope it works out.

[adambr2]

The bottom line is that the Brewers know that the only way that they can afford to keep big time players here for a long time is to bet on them before they’re big and end up being right.

I’ll defend deals like this every time they happen, because the absolute worst case scenario — Pratt is a complete bust, at 8/$50M, is hardly a blip on the radar and doesn’t affect our ability to compete.

[jw5511986]

I see next to no downside here considering the price. If he stinks you are are out on average ~$6/yr, if he is even an average player you are probably close to even and if somehow he ends up at Turang's level you've basically get multiple times the value.

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

I don't know what to think really although I do trust Arnold. Pratt has to hit but I'm sure his D is legit. Truth be told if Pratt was sure he was going to be a stud would he sign? Not sure even he knows what his future holds but I hope it works out.

He would still hit FA at 31 even with the two club options. Maybe things change between now and then but good SS still get paid at 31 years old though maybe a decade from now teams will wise up to giving players over 30 long term deals.

[torts]

13 minutes ago, RobertCrawley said:

Someone please tell me he's really really good.

[Lathund]

I've always been surprised with how low this board (And fans in general) have been on Pratt. Or well, not super surprised, since most fans will just do some very basic stat line scouting. But it was always clear that he was far higher regarded by prospect evaluators in general, and the Brewers in particular. So while many people viewed him as just surplus trade bait, at least I thought it obvious the Brewers vieweed him as their SS of the future, someone close to making their debut too. 

But I gotta say, I still didn't see this coming. Which isn't to say I don't like it; $6.25m AAV is great value for the team. With his defense and base running, he could end up with Orlando Arcia's bat and the deal would still be OK, albeit obviously not what anyone wanted. If he's a below average hitter (say 90 wRC+) it's good value. If he's anyhting more, it's a steal. 

I think there's  disconnect between how fans think, and how front offices think, when it comes to valuing defense at key positions. Like the value of running a guy with above average or better defense out at C/SS/CF every day, not needing to platoon or a defensive sub, even if they are even close to average on offense. 

One way to illustrate this is Dansby Swanson. Look at the FA deal he got after reaching free agency with a career 94 wRC+. As a Cub he's averaged 4 WAR/year with a 101 wRC+. 

[Klantz27]

Isn't pratt a boras client? Kinda odd he usually doesnt do 10 year deals before arbitration lol? 

[torts]

Can Jett play 3b?

[Oxy]

This seems at least a year too early for this.  And if it's truly 8/$50M PLUS 2 $15M option years that's wild for a guy that young and unproven.  I trust the FO though.

[umphrey]

I thought he was on track to get stuck in AAA but I guess not now. They may look to trade Ortiz next year. Glad the org likes Pratt. 

[Frisbee Slider]

If Isaiah Kiner-Falefa is worth $7.5 million per season the past two years 🤷‍♂️

[Fear The Chorizo]

50 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I mean it made sense when he was Pratt’s age. It doesn’t make sense now.

When Turang was Pratt's age, many assumed Turang would never amount to a competent MLB hitter to warrant being extended.  

Pratt profiles as a better prospect than Turang ever did, and I was always high on Turang.

The Brewers currently have an embarrassment of MIF riches in their organization, which could mean they can land a kings ransom in trading Turang when the youngsters are ready for MLB and Turang can earn his huge paychecks with a different team paying for his decline.  It's just how they have to do business.

[RobertCrawley]

37 minutes ago, torts said:

Thanks, man. I feel better. 

[liveforoctober]

41 minutes ago, Oxy said:

This seems at least a year too early for this.  And if it's truly 8/$50M PLUS 2 $15M option years that's wild for a guy that young and unproven.  I trust the FO though.

Like most this move definitely shocked me. 

BUT he did have a good offensive season in Single A and then struggled offensively (as a 20yo) in the Southern League where bats often go to die. He is a full 5 years younger than average in AAA this year. If he has a good offensive season and had the Brewers approached him this next offseason did they just save themselves $40/$50 mil by betting on their scouts?

That's the gamble. I have to trust them until they are proven wrong. 

Now let's get Ortiz trade value up :)

[adambr2]

56 minutes ago, Klantz27 said:

Isn't pratt a boras client? Kinda odd he usually doesnt do 10 year deals before arbitration lol? 

At the end of the day, Boras works for the client (player), not the other way around. Boras I’m sure does educate the prospect on potential future earnings going year to year, but if the clients’ main goal is lifetime financial security (which is totally valid and understandable), Boras can and will facilitate that.

[adambr2]

46 minutes ago, Oxy said:

This seems at least a year too early for this.  And if it's truly 8/$50M PLUS 2 $15M option years that's wild for a guy that young and unproven.  I trust the FO though.

Well the options are team options, so they make it more attractive, not less. That’s 4 years of cheap FA years team control if he ends up being a Turang level player.

Presumably there are buyouts for those options, but getting the two option years is a huge plus for the team, and more of a concession for the player.

[GAME05]

$6/yr is really just gambling on him to be a backup, Plus I assume SS skills translate to 3b and 2b, too. And if needs be, a solid half-year at AAA and that contract makes him even more valuable to trade than without it.

Writing was already on the wall for Turang. He's a great candidate to trade with a couple years of arbitration left, which would net us a heck of a player. I don't think the Brewers are going to wait until Turang's final year. Heck, he'll probably be making $25m his second-to-last year of arbitration.

[adambr2]

3 minutes ago, GAME05 said:

$6/yr is really just gambling on him to be a backup, Plus I assume SS skills translate to 3b and 2b, too. And if needs be, a solid half-year at AAA and that contract makes him even more valuable to trade than without it.

Writing was already on the wall for Turang. He's a great candidate to trade with a couple years of arbitration left, which would net us a heck of a player. I don't think the Brewers are going to wait until Turang's final year. Heck, he'll probably be making $25m his second-to-last year of arbitration.

I think post 2027 with two years remaining is probably the sweet spot to trade Turang where you can still enjoy the benefits for two more seasons and still get a massive haul.

Trade deadline 2027 would also be ideal if we aren’t contending, but I wouldn’t expect us not to be.

[Oxy]

8 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Well the options are team options, so they make it more attractive, not less. That’s 4 years of cheap FA years team control if he ends up being a Turang level player.

Presumably there are buyouts for those options, but getting the two option years is a huge plus for the team, and more of a concession for the player.

Initially I read this deal as $20M to buy out all his team control, then 2 $15M options.  That would make more sense for MKE.  Committing to two years of FA post team control to a guy who hasn't even succeeded at AA makes no sense to me, but I don't work in an MLB front office.

[adambr2]

I think it’s clear that Ortiz and Turang aren’t going to be here for the long haul.

What, if anything, does this deal mean for Made and Pena?