Pratt signs extension for 8/$50M

[adambr2]

1 minute ago, Oxy said:

Initially I read this deal as $20M to buy out all his team control, then 2 $15M options.  That would make more sense for MKE.  Committing 2 two years of FA post team control to a guy who hasn't even succeeded at AA makes 0 sense to me, but I don't work in an MLB front office.

That would really only be one extra year though, since Pratt is still young enough where they’d stash him early next season to buy the extra Super 2 year and play the service time game (which, who knows what that looks like after the next CBA).

This path definitely comes with more risk, but higher reward. And at the end of the day, 50M in payroll spread out over 8 years or 20 M spread out over 6 won’t make a huge difference.

[homer]

I have always questioned his prospect ranking because he hasn't really produced any kind of eye-popping numbers as a hitter. But then again, neither did Turang until he was like 22, 23 years old. This is one of those cases where everyone likes the guy despite the numbers and they know more than me. I trust the projection.

[narwhalattack]

Seems like it’s a pretty good bet that we’re gonna see Pratt at some point this season barring unforeseen circumstances. And it seems like our brain trust is very confident that he is a special talent.

[Oxy]

13 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

That would really only be one extra year though, since Pratt is still young enough where they’d stash him early next season to buy the extra Super 2 year and play the service time game (which, who knows what that looks like after the next CBA).

This path definitely comes with more risk, but higher reward. And at the end of the day, 50M in payroll spread out over 8 years or 20 M spread out over 6 won’t make a huge difference.

The guy might not even be a bench caliber MLB player--and we are already paying him likely at least a projected average FA SS wages in 2032 and 2033 and whatever the buyout would be for the option years.  Sure, if the guy is an all-star it works out very good for MKE but the odds of that occurring are not very high.  Again, he hasn't even succeeded at AA let alone the MLB level.

[adambr2]

5 minutes ago, Oxy said:

The guy might not even be a bench caliber MLB player--and we are already paying him likely at least a projected average FA SS wages in 2032 and 2033 and whatever the buyout would be for the option years.  Sure, if the guy is an all-star it works out very good for MKE but the odds of the aren't very high.  Again, he hasn't even succeeded at AA let alone the MLB level.

I think that you’re drastically overestimating what $15M will buy in free agency in 2032 and 2033 (or however they spread out the contract).

 

[etranger]

After years of being a reader, I guess today is the day I join the land of posts.  I'm surprised I haven't seen this yet on the thread (apologies if I missed it), but to me this is a validation of the approach the Brewers have taken in the draft.  Many would have thought Pratt could not be signed where he was drafted, but the Brewers clearly had done their diligence.  I'll take a long term bet on a premium position, especially when the org believes in the player.  Hopefully it all works out.  Heck had Brice gotten this deal back in the day I'd be wondering why the Crew gave so much to someone who didn't seem like he'd ever be a threat at the plate.  Fingers crossed the ROI on this one is high.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 minutes ago, etranger said:

After years of being a reader, I guess today is the day I join the land of posts.  I'm surprised I haven't seen this yet on the thread (apologies if I missed it), but to me this is a validation of the approach the Brewers have taken in the draft.  Many would have thought Pratt could not be signed where he was drafted, but the Brewers clearly had done their diligence.  I'll take a long term bet on a premium position, especially when the org believes in the player.  Hopefully it all works out.  Heck had Brice gotten this deal back in the day I'd be wondering why the Crew gave so much to someone who didn't seem like he'd ever be a threat at the plate.  Fingers crossed the ROI on this one is high.  

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

[Jopal78]

I think the odds this contract ends up being a bargain for the Brewers is slim. It likely only ends up being a win if the player’s performance warrants the club options at the end being picked up. 

Peralta’s extension was great. Ashby’s has not been, and his 2 club options worth 22 million dollars (as a non-closer bullpen arm) almost certainly will be declined. Chourio remains to be seen.
 

 But on the other hand when even mediocre free agents are getting 10+ million AAV, it’s a better gamble on a kid with upside than some veteran band aids. 

[GAME05]

5 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

What, if anything, does this deal mean for Made and Pena?

It means we'll still have a heck of an infield defense!

2b/3b/SS with Jett playing a lot of INF/OF fits them all in

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I think the odds this contract ends up being a bargain for the Brewers is slim. It likely only ends up being a win if the player’s performance warrants the club options at the end being picked up. 

Peralta’s extension was great. Ashby’s has not been, and his 2 club options worth 22 million dollars (as a non-closer bullpen arm) almost certainly will be declined. Chourio remains to be seen.
 

 But on the other hand when even mediocre free agents are getting 10+ million AAV, it’s a better gamble on a kid with upside than some veteran band aids. 

Ashby if he continues pitching how he has in his career as a RP will have plenty of trade value in those team option years where the Brewers can just trade him. He's been an elite LHP out of the bullpen in his career. $22M over 2 years with club options on both to protect in case of injury is probably a pretty valuable asset around the league if he keeps it up.

[Jopal78]

17 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Ashby if he continues pitching how he has in his career as a RP will have plenty of trade value in those team option years where the Brewers can just trade him. He's been an elite LHP out of the bullpen in his career. $22M over 2 years with club options on both to protect in case of injury is probably a pretty valuable asset around the league if he keeps it up.

Devin Williams has multiple all star appearances, was ROY, and has 2 reliever of the year awards and is making 13.5 million a year.
 

Unless he becomes a starter or a closer Ashby’s club options of 11 million AAV are top of the market for a reliever. That doesn’t equal lots of trade value. 

[wibadgers23]

Strangest contract in Brewers history?  I like Pratt as a prospect but did not see this coming in the slightest.  Guessing we'll see him at some point this year.

[CheeseheadInQC]

3 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Devin Williams has multiple all star appearances, was ROY, and has 2 reliever of the year awards and is making 13.5 million a year.
 

Unless he becomes a starter or a closer Ashby’s club options of 11 million AAV are top of the market for a reliever. That doesn’t equal lots of trade value. 

Williams is coming off a really down year. 2 years, $22 million is I believe what Brad Keller got. $10-11 million per year is what good setup guys or unproven prospective closers were getting. Two more years like last year and Ashby would probably get at least that on the open market.

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Devin Williams has multiple all star appearances, was ROY, and has 2 reliever of the year awards and is making 13.5 million a year.
 

Unless he becomes a starter or a closer Ashby’s club options of 11 million AAV are top of the market for a reliever. That doesn’t equal lots of trade value. 

The net present value on Williams deals is 3/$45M. That's a heck of a lot more than 2/$22M

Ashby as a RP in his career - 2.49 ERA, 2.41 FIP, 2.63 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, 22.8% K-BB

Devin Williams 3 seasons before entering FA - 2.91 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 2.81 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, 26.1% K-BB

Think maybe you weren't aware how good Ashby has been as a RP in his career. It's right up there with the best relievers in the sport. 

[pitchleague]

True story:

my wife and I saw the Brewers in Goodyear this spring, playing the Reds and then the Guardians.  In the Reds game, we sat down the first base line a bit past the dugout and saw Pratt, among others, standing at attention during the national anthem.  I noticed, however, he couldn’t stop futzing with his hair once his hat was off.

The next night, we were in the front row on the third base side by the tarp.  Here comes Pratt to meet family who were visiting.  They asked if I could take a photo, so I obliged.  Afterward, I spoke with Pratt a bit (there was next to nobody in the park yet) and told about the hair thing the previous afternoon.  He and his family all had a good laugh, mentioning how he always was self-conscious of how he looked without a hat on.

So, I love the guy but I don’t know how much trust I put in a guy who’s more concerned with his hair than his play when he’s on the field.

 

[edfunderburk]

16 minutes ago, pitchleague said:

futzing

I was a college newspaper editor & I have a journalism degree. I love “made up” words like this one. 🙌💪👏🏆

[Klantz27]

1 hour ago, GAME05 said:

$6/yr is really just gambling on him to be a backup, Plus I assume SS skills translate to 3b and 2b, too. And if needs be, a solid half-year at AAA and that contract makes him even more valuable to trade than without it.

Writing was already on the wall for Turang. He's a great candidate to trade with a couple years of arbitration left, which would net us a heck of a player. I don't think the Brewers are going to wait until Turang's final year. Heck, he'll probably be making $25m his second-to-last year of arbitration.

Gambling on him to be a backup? They gave him ceddanne rafaela money im sure they expect him to be a big part of there future and a everyday starter.

[Klantz27]

1 hour ago, Oxy said:

The guy might not even be a bench caliber MLB player--and we are already paying him likely at least a projected average FA SS wages in 2032 and 2033 and whatever the buyout would be for the option years.  Sure, if the guy is an all-star it works out very good for MKE but the odds of that occurring are not very high.  Again, he hasn't even succeeded at AA let alone the MLB level.

He has an elite glove and if he can produce average bat you're looking at 24 joey ortiz thats good for a 3 war season definitely worth 6 mil a year

His ceiling is probably what brice turang is capable of now he had a 6 war season last year surely he has the potential to push that to the 7-8 range if pratt turns out anything like this it would quickly become one of the best deals in mlb history 

[brewcrewdue80]

1 hour ago, pitchleague said:

True story:

my wife and I saw the Brewers in Goodyear this spring, playing the Reds and then the Guardians.  In the Reds game, we sat down the first base line a bit past the dugout and saw Pratt, among others, standing at attention during the national anthem.  I noticed, however, he couldn’t stop futzing with his hair once his hat was off.

The next night, we were in the front row on the third base side by the tarp.  Here comes Pratt to meet family who were visiting.  They asked if I could take a photo, so I obliged.  Afterward, I spoke with Pratt a bit (there was next to nobody in the park yet) and told about the hair thing the previous afternoon.  He and his family all had a good laugh, mentioning how he always was self-conscious of how he looked without a hat on.

So, I love the guy but I don’t know how much trust I put in a guy who’s more concerned with his hair than his play when he’s on the field.

 

Good thing he'll wear a hat/helmet when playing.

 

I read Pratt is a Boras client.  So what's Pratt's price after any 1+ WAR ability is displayed in the Majors?  Pratt is the opposite of below 6' hitters to project.  He fills out and gets more experience does he become a bigger power hitter in the Adames mold?  Put mildly, Pratt is younger than Frelick when drafted. Playing games now at AAA. I hope this continues as a success story for Milwaukee.  

Last, could Pratt fill in at 1b for Vaughn's IL stint?

Edit well Pratt is a little older than Frelick's drafted age, but its close maybe 120-140 days.

[MrTPlush]

2 hours ago, adambr2 said:

At the end of the day, Boras works for the client (player), not the other way around. Boras I’m sure does educate the prospect on potential future earnings going year to year, but if the clients’ main goal is lifetime financial security (which is totally valid and understandable), Boras can and will facilitate that.

Also, Boraa is like the player and his big payday is years and years away. He could represent this guy for years just for him to burn out. I doubt Boras is shedding many tears for the money he just made on a random prospect. Bet he would do it every time.

[jay87shot]

I have very mixed feelings on this.

On the positive

I love the cheap extension and if the minor league coaches and front office have that much belief in the work ethic, character, and baseball potential I trust this. He is a gold glove caliber defender and especially given how far out the contract goes the value should be OK even if the bat isn't special. He doesn't strikout much and takes walks and anyone who has followed the Brewers system knows there will likely be 20+ HR potential in the bat. He was only 20 last year in AA, had he played  A+ last year and hit like .280-.300 people would be way higher on his offense. On top of that, I wont complain when the org actually decides to spend money. I dont think this money will be a factor in extending Made or other prospects in the next couple years.

On the negative, I think we could have waited until the end of the year (or midseason) and signed the same deal. That would have given everyone a little better look at the bat and his future. I think a Turang extension has probably passed but I would probably have rather signed Sal, Patrick, Uribe to an extension 1st. Since we will be paying him probably like 10+ million the couple years before the options there is a lot of risk that he wont reach his potential and paying him that money could cost us an impact players down the road.

Overall, I like this more than it worries me. However, I dont get why we just didnt wait a couple months and have a little better idea what the offense looks like.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Interesting move.  Assuming he is signing a major league contract immediately, then we need to open a 40 man roster spot.  Those are getting harder to free up.  Carlos Rodriguez? Berroa and Zas are both on the IL so they cannot be DFAd.  Its an odd time to do this.

[StearnsFTW]

5 hours ago, Bulldogboy said:

Insane if true. Meanwhile Turang is going to get away.

Turang was always getting away 

[StearnsFTW]

Probably a dumb (and old AF) comparison, but I'm hoping Pratt is prime Mile Bordick (ish).

 

That would be tremendous value if accurate. 

[liveforoctober]

44 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Probably a dumb (and old AF) comparison, but I'm hoping Pratt is prime Mile Bordick (ish).

 

That would be tremendous value if accurate. 

Mike Bordick is a crazy pull. Well done.