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Posted

I don’t particularly like this deal and I don’t agree with some people’s belief these extension usually work out for the team.

Singleton, Kingery, Jimenez, and White are all pre MLB debut contracts that sucked. Luis Robert Jr. also likely to be a bad contract barring a massive year to make $20mil options seem like a good idea. I think that is like half of all pre-MLB debut contracts.

 

Does Pratt really have the ceiling and skill to be giving this kind of contract to? Idk, I guess we will see how he does at AAA. One of these contract by itself is low impact…put 3+ of these contracts on the books and it isn’t a blip anymore. The more you do the more likely it is that a few are total flops and negate any gain we see from the one player that actually pans out.

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Verified Member
Posted

I love this deal.  It reflects the reality that MLB salary structures never actually line up with a player's present ability.  The typical way salaries work after the six years of team control is that teams pay players for what they did before.  That's mostly unwise for teams, because they aren't getting what the player did before.  Most players past team control are in their late 20s or early 30s, when they're likely to decline.

The Brewers are trying the opposite approach by paying players for what the team thinks they're going to do later.  This has one inevitable disadvantage in common with the other approach: You don't actually know what you're going to get.  But it has two advantages.  First, it just costs less money.  Fifty million dollars over eight years?  Even the Brewers won't be too bothered if that contract turns into the worst-case scenario.  Second, the team is paying for players at an age when they tend to improve, not decline.

You won't like this analysis if you're a big believer in the value of proven major leaguers and/or the worthlessness of players who haven't made the majors yet.  The Brewers aren't believers in those things, and they've done pretty well betting in the other direction.  The Pratt contract, though unusual in a lot of ways people have discussed here, is really just another instance of the Brewers' consistent approach.

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Verified Member
Posted

I like to look at it through the lens of the Brewers' current highest salary player being Yelich, who is getting $26M per season over the next three years (with a $6.5M option buyout likely to be exercised by the team in 2029), including 2026.

Two of those seasons are currently richer than 8 seasons of Pratt. The last 3 seasons Yelich has returned 3.5, 2.3 (in 73 games) and 3.1 bWAR.

If Pratt can return 6 to 7 bWAR at minimum he'll come close to equaling what Yelich is likely to return in two seasons for around the same salary. That would be near replacement level production which feels worthy of a $6.34M AAV salary (which of course will be structured in increasing increments over the 8 seasons).

On his defense alone he probably could achieve this, if he can also manage to hit at a near replacement level that would add even more. Pratt's youth and upside potential is what makes the investment a good value, with the potential for it to be a great value.

Verified Member
Posted

My issueS plural with this are more about the domino effect…from one possible disgruntled employee to another.

Contreras- “They are being cheap with me over $1-2 million so they can hand $50 mil to a kid that might be good when I’m outta here?

Ortiz- “I guess my days are really numbered “NOW.”

Frelick- “Good to see they are paying our 3rd or 4th best minor league SS 50 times more than I’m making this year.”

Made- “What position am I crafting to get good at again? SS? Really?

Pena- “What team will I be traded to? hmmm….

Fair or foul, human nature says this will breed a few issues that Murphy will not want in his clubhouse.  I also don’t think the Brewers are doing themselves any favors long term by driving up the price of these deals for unproven players. 

 

 

 

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Posted
17 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

My issueS plural with this are more about the domino effect…from one possible disgruntled employee to another.

Contreras- “They are being cheap with me over $1-2 million so they can hand $50 mil to a kid that might be good when I’m outta here?

Ortiz- “I guess my days are really numbered “NOW.”

Frelick- “Good to see they are paying our 3rd or 4th best minor league SS 50 times more than I’m making this year.”

Made- “What position am I crafting to get good at again? SS? Really?

Pena- “What team will I be traded to? hmmm….

Fair or foul, human nature says this will breed a few issues that Murphy will not want in his clubhouse.  I also don’t think the Brewers are doing themselves any favors long term by driving up the price of these deals for unproven players. 

 

 

 

I’m sure it made quite a few guys zoom out and assess their long term situation. And if it stoked some competitive juices, that’s a good thing.

Luckily the Brewers have a pretty good reputation for communicating the development plan. Hopefully that mutes any blowback. 

But, if I had to bet, this group of dudes is probably just overwhelmingly happy for Cooper.

I think the Brewers are enamored with the guy. Likely higher on him than any outside expert or informed fan even realizes. His defense looks absolutely special, I’ll die on that hill. The rest of the package is very well rounded with leadership qualities and upside. 

I urge you to read this post from ARob, who is quite plugged in: 

 

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Verified Member
Posted
11 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

My issueS plural with this are more about the domino effect…from one possible disgruntled employee to another.

Contreras- “They are being cheap with me over $1-2 million so they can hand $50 mil to a kid that might be good when I’m outta here?

Ortiz- “I guess my days are really numbered “NOW.”

Frelick- “Good to see they are paying our 3rd or 4th best minor league SS 50 times more than I’m making this year.”

Made- “What position am I crafting to get good at again? SS? Really?

Pena- “What team will I be traded to? hmmm….

Fair or foul, human nature says this will breed a few issues that Murphy will not want in his clubhouse.  I also don’t think the Brewers are doing themselves any favors long term by driving up the price of these deals for unproven players. 

 

 

 

That’s really built on a lot of assumptions. First of all, I think it’s part of the GM’s core job duties to identify what premium players they have where there is potential surplus value in extending them. 

Some players, like Contreras, aren’t interested in delaying their free agency and likewise the Brewers aren’t interested in market rate extensions where there is no surplus value. 

Frelick is not eligible for free agency until he is going to be 30. With his profile is there going to be surplus value in his age 30, 31 seasons to make an extension worthwhile?

I think it’s also more likely that major league players like Joey Ortiz are motivated to play hard to keep those guaranteed contracts coming in the future and the club they perform for is largely irrelevant. It’s one of the main cliches players use “If I play well these things take care of themselves”.   
 

Made and Pena likely will look at Chourio and Pratt and be motivated to position themselves to get that kind of guarantee for themselves. or even look at Contreras and be motivated to get to the majors as soon as possible then mark their free agency date on their calendars. 
 

The final reality is the players are a pretty large brotherhood, and there may be private jealousies,  but they all recognize that an increasing number of players who have yet to debut in the majors signing guarantees for 50+ million dollars is good for the brotherhood. 

 

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Posted

I don’t think players got mad at Peralta, Ashby or Chourio for their contracts. For all we know, the Brewers regularly reach out to their better player’s agents to ask if they would like to discuss win-win team friendly extensions.

Miz’s agent would probably already say no to a team friendly extension. That’s not Milwaukee’s fault.

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Posted
3 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

I don’t think players got mad at Peralta, Ashby or Chourio for their contracts. For all we know, the Brewers regularly reach out to their better player’s agents to ask if they would like to discuss win-win team friendly extensions.

Miz’s agent would probably already say no to a team friendly extension. That’s not Milwaukee’s fault.

This could definitely be true, but ultimately its all about balancing the risk...

We have Miz through the 2031 season... so going year to year risks that he'll be too expensive by 2030 or 2031.  On the other hand, if he struggles (2025 second half) rather than being electric (2025 first half) or gets injured, all bets are off...

I get that these guys have an ego, and some are driven to hit the "MASSIVE CASH", but I'd imagine that most would players would take the security of $50 million guaranteed, rather than a much smaller probability of hitting a $250 million or $500 million jackpot.

Yeah, the numbers keep getting bigger, but we could have a massive economic correction at some point think 2008-2010), and if corporate America stops advertising, buying wide swaths of tickets, employing millions of Americans, etc... pro sports could see a significant contraction.   Or, the players could not be as good as advertised, and they pretty much are left with their original MLB draft signing bonus...

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Verified Member
Posted

Something tells me that Pratt is playing SS this year and Ortiz moves back over to 3B. I don't think Hamilton is going to hit enough to stay up all season.

Verified Member
Posted

Anyone else getting a little concerned that this hasn't been made official yet? Between the Emerson contract and the Boras factor, I was hoping we'd have official word of the deal by now.

Verified Member
Posted
9 minutes ago, Matt said:

Anyone else getting a little concerned that this hasn't been made official yet? Between the Emerson contract and the Boras factor, I was hoping we'd have official word of the deal by now.

I've thought about it and chalked it up to working out finer details, and possibly about the timing of when to execute it in terms of roster manipulation type stuff based on when it's 'official'.    So I assumed its nbd, but who knows maybe someone more in tune with the logistical finer details will chime in

Verified Member
Posted
7 hours ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

This could definitely be true, but ultimately its all about balancing the risk...

We have Miz through the 2031 season... so going year to year risks that he'll be too expensive by 2030 or 2031.  On the other hand, if he struggles (2025 second half) rather than being electric (2025 first half) or gets injured, all bets are off...

I get that these guys have an ego, and some are driven to hit the "MASSIVE CASH", but I'd imagine that most would players would take the security of $50 million guaranteed, rather than a much smaller probability of hitting a $250 million or $500 million jackpot.

Yeah, the numbers keep getting bigger, but we could have a massive economic correction at some point think 2008-2010), and if corporate America stops advertising, buying wide swaths of tickets, employing millions of Americans, etc... pro sports could see a significant contraction.   Or, the players could not be as good as advertised, and they pretty much are left with their original MLB draft signing bonus...

It’s not about being driven by ego or hitting massive cash. Rather it is opportunity that is fleeting.

If you had a physical skill that you could use to earn obscene amounts of money but said physical skill will almost certainly and permanently erode somewhere before 40, wouldn’t you seize the opportunities to make as much as possible before that day arrives?

I am more surprised there are American born players who already got one major payday when they were drafted who are willing to potentially leave some money on the table by taking these early extensions.  

Verified Member
Posted

As much as I LOVE his defense, OBP and base running skills, he hit .238 in Double-A. This move seems odd to me unless this guy is the next Ozzie Smith

Community Moderator
Posted
16 hours ago, JRob1125 said:

As much as I LOVE his defense, OBP and base running skills, he hit .238 in Double-A. This move seems odd to me unless this guy is the next Ozzie Smith

Did you know that the Southern League's average BA last year was .230?  And that Cooper was 20 in a league where the average age was 23.8.  Three years out of High School, he was an above average hitter at AA - typically seen as one of the harder "jumps" to make. Stats matter, but so does context. 

I still have concerns about his offensive potential, but obviously the Brewers have less concern.  

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"Rock, sometime, when the team is up against it, and the breaks are beating the boys, tell 'em to go out there with all they got and win just one for the Uecker. I don't know where I'll be then, Rock but I'll know about it; and I'll be happy."

Posted

I am willing to be patient with the offensive profile. There was some hand-wringing about Turang his first two years. 

image.png.56f77b9da8710ca2739b9af3931dcce0.png

"Go ahead. Try to disagree with me. I dare you." Jeffrey Leonard.

Posted

I just started to listen to this…….they way they analyze Pratt…….about 80% chance that he ends up a solid regular or above…….slightly less than 10% chance of a bust

 

Community Moderator
Posted
20 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

It’s not about being driven by ego or hitting massive cash. Rather it is opportunity that is fleeting.

If you had a physical skill that you could use to earn obscene amounts of money but said physical skill will almost certainly and permanently erode somewhere before 40, wouldn’t you seize the opportunities to make as much as possible before that day arrives?

I am more surprised there are American born players who already got one major payday when they were drafted who are willing to potentially leave some money on the table by taking these early extensions.  

It's easy to see why getting an early payday while still hitting FA before 30 is highly attractive to these guys. You're guaranteeing yourself enough to live comfortably for life while still leaving open the possibility of a generational payday. 

Verified Member
Posted
26 minutes ago, owbc said:

It's easy to see why getting an early payday while still hitting FA before 30 is highly attractive to these guys. You're guaranteeing yourself enough to live comfortably for life while still leaving open the possibility of a generational payday. 

Yeah you might be right. There is probably not enough information to be more than anecdotal if you come out ahead going year to year and without getting a mega-deal. For example, Pratt with his draft bonus and the numbers in the proposed extension will have nearly as much guaranteed money as Rhys Hoskins has made to date without having taken a swing. 

Verified Member
Posted

Right, and the team gets the perk of 'controlling' them for an extra 2-3 years. Especially if the last year or two are team options and save a bunch of money vs the market in those last few years if the guy does pop.  It kind of seems like a win-win making sense for both sides. 

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Community Moderator
Posted
1 hour ago, tmwiese55 said:

Right, and the team gets the perk of 'controlling' them for an extra 2-3 years. Especially if the last year or two are team options and save a bunch of money vs the market in those last few years if the guy does pop.  It kind of seems like a win-win making sense for both sides. 

One of the trends precipitating this is top prospects hitting the bigs at 21 instead of 23. 

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Posted

There's some speculation I've seen that this trend, and this signing in particular, reflects some hedging against changes in the CBA that would impact the current pay progression for young players. I think it's an ok deal with the current system, not a slam dunk for either player or team. (Which is likely the sign of a fair deal?) But if the salaries of young players escalate more quickly in a new contract, it could be huge.

I don't think the jealousy described above is an issue at all. I expect that the Brewers have had similar discussions with most of their young major leaguers and many top prospects as well, and most have opted to bet on themselves. 

Verified Member
Posted
On 4/2/2026 at 1:16 PM, tmwiese55 said:

I've thought about it and chalked it up to working out finer details, and possibly about the timing of when to execute it in terms of roster manipulation type stuff based on when it's 'official'.    So I assumed its nbd, but who knows maybe someone more in tune with the logistical finer details will chime in

Finally made official by Brewers.

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Verified Member
Posted

I guess I didn’t realize he needed to be added to the 40 man roster. That aspect is a little bit of a bummer. Hopefully you don’t need 3 options on him, but we will be burning an option this year. It also gives us 1 less 40 man roster spot to cycle through waiver claims, promotions, trades, etc.  

 

just minor inconveniences if Pratt turns into an above average starting SS

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