2022 Trade Market

[owbc]

If I were the Red Sox I would sell and sell hard. Two of the three AL Wild Cards are locks (Tampa and Toronto). Only the last spot is up for grabs and teams like Seattle, Cleveland, and the White Sox have an easier path to get there. It's not fun to be in the AL East when even Baltimore is a playoff contender now. 

[Robocaller]

I hope they're at least kicking the tires on Brian Reynolds. He'd fit in well in the lineup and he'd fit in well with the window where we'll still have Burnes and Woodruff. 

Obviously you start with whomever the Pirates want among Frelick, Wiemer or Mitchell, and add to that.

[nate82]

Just now, Robocaller said:

I hope they're at least kicking the tires on Brian Reynolds. He'd fit in well in the lineup and he'd fit in well with the window where we'll still have Burnes and Woodruff. 

Obviously you start with whomever the Pirates want among Frelick, Wiemer or Mitchell, and add to that.

I don't think the Pirates will even consider trading Reynolds for anything less than Chourio, Frelick, Wiemer and a couple of lower level prospects.  The ask for Reynolds is extremely high from the Pirates.  I doubt the Brewers or any team are going to be willing to meet the Pirates demands for a Reynolds trade.  

[Robocaller]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

I don't think the Pirates will even consider trading Reynolds for anything less than Chourio, Frelick, Wiemer and a couple of lower level prospects.  The ask for Reynolds is extremely high from the Pirates.  I doubt the Brewers or any team are going to be willing to meet the Pirates demands for a Reynolds trade.  

I know that's what the Pirates are putting out there, but I think they're just trying to maximize their haul.

[Hopper]

3 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I hope they're at least kicking the tires on Brian Reynolds. He'd fit in well in the lineup and he'd fit in well with the window where we'll still have Burnes and Woodruff. 

Obviously you start with whomever the Pirates want among Frelick, Wiemer or Mitchell, and add to that.

Nope, nope and nope.  No way I give up Frelick or Wiemer, and I'd think really hard about Mitchell as well.

Reynolds alone won't push this team to the world series, he'd be a nice start, but we are 2-3 bats away from being a legit contender.  If all we are planning is to get Reynolds, then I am "all out" on trading any of our top guys, not just the ones listed above.

[Jopal78]

55 minutes ago, Hopper said:

Nope, nope and nope.  No way I give up Frelick or Wiemer, and I'd think really hard about Mitchell as well.

Reynolds alone won't push this team to the world series, he'd be a nice start, but we are 2-3 bats away from being a legit contender.  If all we are planning is to get Reynolds, then I am "all out" on trading any of our top guys, not just the ones listed above.

Reynolds is 27, has an .848 career OPS, plays centerfield and is under team control through 2025.

He’s Christian Yelich circa 2017.  I’d give the Pirates all 3 without thinking much about it (not to mention acquiring Reynolds would effectively block Garret Mitchell, and Frelick until 2026 anyways).

[Robocaller]

3 hours ago, Hopper said:

Nope, nope and nope.  No way I give up Frelick or Wiemer, and I'd think really hard about Mitchell as well.

Reynolds alone won't push this team to the world series, he'd be a nice start, but we are 2-3 bats away from being a legit contender.  If all we are planning is to get Reynolds, then I am "all out" on trading any of our top guys, not just the ones listed above.

The 2019 and 2021 version of Reynolds would make a huge difference, and we can reasonably expect some regression to that mean for the rest of the year.  And he'd be around for a few years. The trick is not paying too much for him, and Frelick definitely isn't. Wiemer probably isn't.

[rickh150]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Reynolds is 27, has an .848 career OPS, plays centerfield and is under team control through 2025.

He’s Christian Yelich circa 2017.  I’d give the Pirates all 3 without thinking much about it (not to mention acquiring Reynolds would effectively block Garret Mitchell, and Frelick until 2026 anyways).

Big problem is still paying him. Adding another arby guy (to the 10 plus already for next year and further) is a bit of a logjam. The team needs cheap, young players coming thru the system to keep costs down and OF is where that will probably be in 2024/2025.

[Brewcrew82]

16 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

The 2019 and 2021 version of Reynolds would make a huge difference, and we can reasonably expect some regression to that mean for the rest of the year.  And he'd be around for a few years. The trick is not paying too much for him, and Frelick definitely isn't. Wiemer probably isn't.

Yeah. If we can get Reynolds without giving up Chourio, I'd be all for it. Even if that means parting with Frelick and Wiemer. They're just prospects, after all, whereas Reynolds has proven all-star production.

[jay87shot]

If we trade for Josh Bell  or another expiring deal could we offer him a qualifying offer and recoup some value?

What would Bell's value be, I wouldnt give up any of out top 5 or so prospects. My guess is that someone will end up giving a top 100 prospect for him. Would 3 decent prospect do, say Hedbert Perez, Cam Robinson, and Mario Feliciano. 

We really really really need a middle of the order hitter or 2. I can't see us going after any big names unless we over pay for an expiring guy. Brandon Drury and Trey Mancini might make the most sense because they will cost less than Bell or Benentendi.

 

[LincolnDD]

7 hours ago, jay87shot said:

If we trade for Josh Bell  or another expiring deal could we offer him a qualifying offer and recoup some value?

What would Bell's value be, I wouldnt give up any of out top 5 or so prospects. My guess is that someone will end up giving a top 100 prospect for him. Would 3 decent prospect do, say Hedbert Perez, Cam Robinson, and Mario Feliciano. 

We really really really need a middle of the order hitter or 2. I can't see us going after any big names unless we over pay for an expiring guy. Brandon Drury and Trey Mancini might make the most sense because they will cost less than Bell or Benentendi.

 

Pending FAs traded during the season are not eligible to receive the qualifying offer.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer

[jay87shot]

4 hours ago, LincolnDD said:

Pending FAs traded during the season are not eligible to receive the qualifying offer.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer

Thanks, I should remember that.

OK here is my 1 week game plan.

1. Trade for Trey Mancini for Keston Huira and a PTBNL (mid level prospect).

We get a middle of the improvement and Huira gets some consistent playing time somewhere else.

2. Trade Mario Feliciano and Pedro Severino to Guardians for James Karinchak.

We get a late inning guy for catcher depth.

3. Trade Kolten Wong to White Sox for prospcets

We get something back and can replace Wong in house.

 4. Trade Hader to Dodgers for Miguel Vargas and Ryan Pepiot

The dodgers are going to be desperate for a closer and we cash in getting 2 high end prospects who can make a difference this year.

I feel like in those deals we could improve our offense Mancini/Vargas and the additions of Karinchak and Pepiot help make up for the loss of Hader short term and long term give us cheap higher end arms.

[Madhawk23]

27 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Thanks, I should remember that.

OK here is my 1 week game plan.

1. Trade for Trey Mancini for Keston Huira and a PTBNL (mid level prospect).

We get a middle of the improvement and Huira gets some consistent playing time somewhere else.

2. Trade Mario Feliciano and Pedro Severino to Guardians for James Karinchak.

We get a late inning guy for catcher depth.

3. Trade Kolten Wong to White Sox for prospcets

We get something back and can replace Wong in house.

 4. Trade Hader to Dodgers for Miguel Vargas and Ryan Pepiot

The dodgers are going to be desperate for a closer and we cash in getting 2 high end prospects who can make a difference this year.

I feel like in those deals we could improve our offense Mancini/Vargas and the additions of Karinchak and Pepiot help make up for the loss of Hader short term and long term give us cheap higher end arms.

Overall, a well thought out plan for the deadline.  Just a few observations:

• I think the Mancini/Hiura deal could make some sense.  Hiura still has some upside, but he just needs the chance to play every day.  The O's could provide him that opportunity.  
• The Guardians are only 3.5 games out of 1st place, so not sure if they would really be looking to get rid of a key bullpen piece?  Do they really need catching depth in their system?  I haven't analyzed it much, but trading them both Severino and Feliciano would really kill our depth at the higher levels.  
• I just have a hard time seeing us trading Wong right now.  I know he hasn't been having a great season (either offensively or defensively), but not sure if a deal happens at the deadline
• As much as I'd hate to see Hader go, I do think we need to trade him either this deadline or this offseason, so that we can at least get some value back from him in a deal.  It's just too bad that he is struggling so much heading into the deadline period.  If we could trade him for the two prospects from LA as you've suggested, and then find a way to get another late inning reliever (or two?) to pair with Devin - we'd be just fine in the back end.  

[jay87shot]

1 hour ago, Madhawk23 said:

Overall, a well thought out plan for the deadline.  Just a few observations:

• I think the Mancini/Hiura deal could make some sense.  Hiura still has some upside, but he just needs the chance to play every day.  The O's could provide him that opportunity.  
• The Guardians are only 3.5 games out of 1st place, so not sure if they would really be looking to get rid of a key bullpen piece?  Do they really need catching depth in their system?  I haven't analyzed it much, but trading them both Severino and Feliciano would really kill our depth at the higher levels.  
• I just have a hard time seeing us trading Wong right now.  I know he hasn't been having a great season (either offensively or defensively), but not sure if a deal happens at the deadline
• As much as I'd hate to see Hader go, I do think we need to trade him either this deadline or this offseason, so that we can at least get some value back from him in a deal.  It's just too bad that he is struggling so much heading into the deadline period.  If we could trade him for the two prospects from LA as you've suggested, and then find a way to get another late inning reliever (or two?) to pair with Devin - we'd be just fine in the back end.  

Admittedly the Indians trading Karinchak is a reach. The Indians big league catchers are awful. Hedges/Maile have a 42 and 66 ops+ , they do have Bo Naylor as a decent AAA catcher. Maybe swap out Feliciano for a 2nd tier OF prospect.

To me trading Wong makes to much sense, the Urias/Brosseau/Peterson 2B is better than what Wong has been (unless his recent hot streak continues). I doubt we pick up his option next year with Turang ready. 

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

Thanks, I should remember that.

OK here is my 1 week game plan.

1. Trade for Trey Mancini for Keston Huira and a PTBNL (mid level prospect).

We get a middle of the improvement and Huira gets some consistent playing time somewhere else.

2. Trade Mario Feliciano and Pedro Severino to Guardians for James Karinchak.

We get a late inning guy for catcher depth.

3. Trade Kolten Wong to White Sox for prospcets

We get something back and can replace Wong in house.

 4. Trade Hader to Dodgers for Miguel Vargas and Ryan Pepiot

The dodgers are going to be desperate for a closer and we cash in getting 2 high end prospects who can make a difference this year.

I feel like in those deals we could improve our offense Mancini/Vargas and the additions of Karinchak and Pepiot help make up for the loss of Hader short term and long term give us cheap higher end arms.

1.  That Dan Vogelbach (career .213/.337/.408 in 1159 ABs) brought back a 26 year old rookie reliver who Pittsburgh assigned to AAA, suggests to me that Hiura (career ,241/.324/.454 in 826 ABS) isn't going to be worth all that much.

2. With Omar Narvaez walking out the door after this season, the Brewers are not going to trade both Severino and Feliciano. If they traded a catcher I would expect it to be Narvaez or Caratini as they would have more value. 

3. The Brewers are trying to win in 2022. Trading Kolten Wong could make sense in the right deal, but swapping him for minor leaguers makes the team worse in 2022. 

4. The Dodgers have Craig Kimbrel. His ERA may not jump of the page this year, but his FIP is a nifty 1.95. Evan Phillips has also been lights out as a high leverage reliver. Plus, Brusdar Gaterol should be back this month,  and Blake Treinen is throwing and should be back in a couple weeks, Would the Dodgers have interest in Hader? Sure, but they certain are not going to be "desperate" or part with key talent when the back end of their bullpen is already stacked with quality arms. 

[LouisEly]

I fail to see how Trey Mancini is an upgrade over Keston Hiura, especially given the salary differences.  Mancini has been nothing special since 2019, before his colon cancer diagnosis.  Yes, he strikes out less than Hiura, and yes, Hiura struggled the last two years as a 23 and 24 year old.  But swapping a 25-year-old with a 126 OPS+ and 128 wRC+ making < $1M and who isn't a free agent until 2026 for a 30-year-old with a 113 OPS+ and 113 wRC+ making $7.5M and is a free agent in 2024 doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me.

[brewerfan82]

Just for some reference I took the players in MLBTradeRumor's Top 50 Trade Candidates (https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/top-50-trade-mlb-trade-candidates.html) and ran comparisons against our current hitters. Definitely a lot of upgrade potential out there.

2020-22 vs. RHP:

Spoiler

2020-22 vs. LHP:

Spoiler

I also pared that down to trade targets that had at least 100 wRC+ against both RHP and LHP from 2020-22 to compare their overall stats in that time period against our current hitters:

Spoiler

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

13 hours ago, LouisEly said:

I fail to see how Trey Mancini is an upgrade over Keston Hiura, especially given the salary differences.  Mancini has been nothing special since 2019, before his colon cancer diagnosis.  Yes, he strikes out less than Hiura, and yes, Hiura struggled the last two years as a 23 and 24 year old.  But swapping a 25-year-old with a 126 OPS+ and 128 wRC+ making < $1M and who isn't a free agent until 2026 for a 30-year-old with a 113 OPS+ and 113 wRC+ making $7.5M and is a free agent in 2024 doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me.

Ding ding ding! Hiura's nearly 50% K rate is an enormous black hole in the lineup, and probably the main reason he's playing in Nashville right now. Yeah, Hiura has power. But he certainly isn't the guy I want up to bat in a key situation late in a game.  

[StearnsFTW]

On 7/25/2022 at 10:53 PM, Robocaller said:

The 2019 and 2021 version of Reynolds would make a huge difference, and we can reasonably expect some regression to that mean for the rest of the year.  And he'd be around for a few years. The trick is not paying too much for him, and Frelick definitely isn't. Wiemer probably isn't.

Based on the trade value site (I know it's not perfect), you'd be looking at Wiemer, Frelick, Turang, Mitchell and a couple more flyers.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

6 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Based on the trade value site (I know it's not perfect), you'd be looking at Wiemer, Frelick, Turang, Mitchell and a couple more flyers.

I doubt it would cost that much.

As for the trade value site, once this theoretical deal actually happens, the site managers would simply go in and quickly adjust the values of the players traded to make it appear that they had the valuations accurate. There is precedent. 

[StearnsFTW]

3 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I doubt it would cost that much.

As for the trade value site, once this theoretical deal actually happens, the site managers would simply go in and quickly adjust the values of the players traded to make it appear that they had the valuations accurate. There is precedent. 

NVM.  Got my convos mixed up.

 

[Jopal78]

Thinking about it, I can picture the Brewers additions being Brandon Drury, David Peralta, Michael Fulmer and Dylan Floro. 

Peralta is a rental, hits righties well, can be played in LF or DH. As an aging player on a D'backs team going nowhere the talent going back to Arizona would be tolerable. Plus Arizona and the Brewers have hooked up on a few deals recently. 

Drury, a righty is having a career year for the Reds. A pure rental has hit much better at GABP than on the road. Plays 3B, 2B, 1B, SS and OF. The versatility the Brewers love. Again the Brewers likely wouldn't have to give up front line minor league talent for Drury.

Again the Brewers have some history in trading with Detroit at the deadline. Fulmer is another rental, strikes out just about one batter per inning, and keeps the ball in the ballpark (1HR allowed in 37 innings), 

Dylan Floro maybe the costliest to acquire because he comes with an extra year of team control. He's adept at keeping the ball in the ballpark and doesn't issue a lot of walks. Maybe the Brewers could get lucky and get rid of Corey Ray as the Marlins are desperate to find a centerfielder. 

[Hopper]

Reynolds is soooo over rated in my opinion.  He's having a down year and people are willing to give up guys like Frelick, Wiemer, Mitchell, Chourio or a combination of them?  Multiple organization pillars for a guy having a down year?  

Man, this would be depressing if we gave away those 4 guys and/or others mentioned.  Reynolds isn't that special.

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Thinking about it, I can picture the Brewers additions being Brandon Drury, David Peralta, Michael Fulmer and Dylan Floro. 

Peralta is a rental, hits righties well, can be played in LF or DH. As an aging player on a D'backs team going nowhere the talent going back to Arizona would be tolerable. Plus Arizona and the Brewers have hooked up on a few deals recently. 

Drury, a righty is having a career year for the Reds. A pure rental has hit much better at GABP than on the road. Plays 3B, 2B, 1B, SS and OF. The versatility the Brewers love. Again the Brewers likely wouldn't have to give up front line minor league talent for Drury.

Again the Brewers have some history in trading with Detroit at the deadline. Fulmer is another rental, strikes out just about one batter per inning, and keeps the ball in the ballpark (1HR allowed in 37 innings), 

Dylan Floro maybe the costliest to acquire because he comes with an extra year of team control. He's adept at keeping the ball in the ballpark and doesn't issue a lot of walks. Maybe the Brewers could get lucky and get rid of Corey Ray as the Marlins are desperate to find a centerfielder. 

The Brewers are desperate to find a centerfielder as well.

And who would Peralta replace on the roster?

[LouisEly]

11 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Ding ding ding! Hiura's nearly 50% K rate is an enormous black hole in the lineup, and probably the main reason he's playing in Nashville right now. Yeah, Hiura has power. But he certainly isn't the guy I want up to bat in a key situation late in a game.  

That's factored into wRC+.