Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes for INF Joey Ortiz, LHP DL Hall and 2024 Competitive Balance Pick

[Thurston Fluff]

7 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

So it makes more sense to just go with Bauers at 1b in 2024 solely because we traded Corbin?  You do know that we are still trying to win and not tanking despite the trade, right?

I think a lot of people have a hard time internalizing the concept of doing both. It either has to be a do everything to win this year or a rebuilding year. The concept of being able to take the future into account while trying to win now just doesn't compute.

[Jopal78]

7 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I think a lot of people have a hard time internalizing the concept of doing both. It either has to be a do everything to win this year or a rebuilding year. The concept of being able to take the future into account while trying to win now just doesn't compute.

Folks want to be Tampa Bay, yet when the Brewers shuffle the deck like the Rays there’s anger and frustration. They were always going to trade Burnes, despite their “bites the Apple talk”. The awkward timing of it just means the front office figured this package from Baltimore was the best they were going to do. 
 

The Hoskins signing is smart despite what happens with Burnes. If he plays well, they trade him at the deadline, or he opts out, declines their QO and they get a pick in ‘25. Even if he struggles, he’s a vet with a good reputation league wide to hold down the fort with Yelich while they break in young players across their lineup

[BallFour]

If DL Hall really does hits his steamer projections of 123 innings a 3.84 fip and 2.3 war in year one then I think this trade will be a lot easier to handle for myself. That means he is well on his way to being a starter in this league with #2 upside. That is close to matching Burnes FIP from last year with 70 less innings of course. Which obviously hurts the 2024 team but in theory really helps every team after that.

[TURBO]

38 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

The Hoskins signing is smart despite what happens with Burnes. If he plays well, they trade him at the deadline, or he opts out, declines their QO and they get a pick in ‘25. Even if he struggles, he’s a vet with a good reputation league wide to hold down the fort with Yelich while they break in young players across their lineup

If he plays well, and we are in a playoff hunt, no possible chance Hoskins is traded at the deadline.  

[Jopal78]

8 minutes ago, TURBO said:

If he plays well, and we are in a playoff hunt, no possible chance Hoskins is traded at the deadline.  

Hmmmm, one MLB team has a recent track record of trading key performers at the deadline despite being a contender, and they have dropped pitchers who started a combined 84 games for them last year, so there is definitely some unpredictability in the Brewers front office so I wouldn’t rule it out completely. 

But yeah, you’d think it unlikely which is why I put “or he opts out” 

[TURBO]

18 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Hmmmm, one MLB team has a recent track record of trading key performers at the deadline despite being a contender, and they have dropped pitchers who started a combined 84 games for them last year, so there is definitely some unpredictability in the Brewers front office so I wouldn’t rule it out completely. 

But yeah, you’d think it unlikely which is why I put “or he opts out” 

Yeah, and hopefully they learned a lesson from that recent track record.  I am assuming that Adames is a MAJOR influence on that clubhouse.  Everyone loves the guy, you trade him in the midst of a playoff chase, and the effects would probably be way worse than when they traded Hader.

[homer]

Are we talking about Adames getting traded mid season or Hoskins?

[brewmann04]

Well can expect Willy to be moved sometime and if this team goes into a down fall expect Boskins and maybe Williams 

[TURBO]

48 minutes ago, homer said:

Are we talking about Adames getting traded mid season or Hoskins?

lol  Apparently both, I confused myself, so I'm sure I confused everyone else too.

[StearnsFTW]

On 2/2/2024 at 6:06 PM, markedman5 said:

In depth podcast about the trade…….these guys really like what we got.

 

Thanks for linking this.  I enjoyed it.

 

 

[Jastro]

Confirmation that DL will be stretched out as a starter

[brewcrewdue80]

That Steamer projection is fairly spot on. 123Innings is near 30IP above 2022. You keep him on the 30IP if healthy tracking he's a full time starter in 2026.  I've knocked this return in trade as you are taking half his team control before you pencil them in as a full time starter.  3seasons remaining healthy is a big risk. So 1 TJ and you're in their 5th maybe 6th season of control before they provide a seasons full of starts. 32GS imo

[Brewcrew82]

After doing some further reflection on the trade, I think this guy might be a pretty apt comparison for Ortiz. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/penaje02.shtml

Both glove first college prospects who were late bloomers with the bat and who were able to make top 100 lists by the end of their minor league careers. Neither has elite pop, but they’re both above average for the position. OPS’s and wRC+ hovering around the league average mark, with the gloves making them around 3/4 WAR players. 

Definitely an outcome I’d be happy with.

[BrewerFan]

26 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

That Steamer projection is fairly spot on. 123Innings is near 30IP above 2022. You keep him on the 30IP if healthy tracking he's a full time starter in 2026.  I've knocked this return in trade as you are taking half his team control before you pencil them in as a full time starter.  3seasons remaining healthy is a big risk. So 1 TJ and you're in their 5th maybe 6th season of control before they provide a seasons full of starts. 32GS imo

You see what he looks like and maybe they're more open to an extension early. 

But as of now, he'd be on pace to be a Super 2...I think, but you get 6 years. I don't know if you're spending 3 seasons before you can pencil him in as a full-time starter. If he's 130 next year, the following year you should be expecting ~160-170 and...that's a good year. How many guys give you 200 innings a year? I'm more worried about him being able to throw 120 innings given his history than I am about the time it'll take him to build up to that point.

[Guest]

Really good points in this thread about the age of the prospects and the impact covid had on player development - easily overlooked aspect.

DL Hall is exciting... if he takes a step forward this year and develops as a starter, this goes down as a massive win.

[homer]

8 minutes ago, EddieTheCousin said:

Really good points in this thread about the age of the prospects and the impact covid had on player development - easily overlooked aspect.

DL Hall is exciting... if he takes a step forward this year and develops as a starter, this goes down as a massive win.

Welcome to the board!

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

After doing some further reflection on the trade, I think this guy might be a pretty apt comparison for Ortiz. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/penaje02.shtml

Both glove first college prospects who were late bloomers with the bat and who were able to make top 100 lists by the end of their minor league careers. Neither has elite pop, but they’re both above average for the position. OPS’s and wRC+ hovering around the league average mark, with the gloves making them around 3/4 WAR players. 

Definitely an outcome I’d be happy with.

My comparison is poor man's Bo Bichette. Now that may sound crazy but look at this. 

Bichette's 2023 MLB numbers first then Ortiz 2023 AAA numbers second

Avg EV - 90.2, 90
Hard-Hit% - 44.9, 44.6
90th EV - 106.6, 105.3
Sweet-Spot% - 38.3, 38.8
Chase% - 36.4, 32
Whiff% - 21.1, 16
K% - 19.1, 17.7
BB% - 4.5, 8.2

The huge difference between the 2 is one thing. Barrel Rate. Bichette's barrel rate was 9.6% and Ortiz's was 2%. They had pretty darn similar EV numbers and contact rates. Can Ortiz start elevating the ball better is the big question. I think he can probably improve it somewhat, but doubt he improves it to the level of Bichette who is slightly above league average in barrel rate. Poor man's Bo Bichette offensively with plus middle infield glove would be a very solid regular. Hopefully Ortiz can pan out.

[TURBO]

20 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

My comparison is poor man's Bo Bichette. Now that may sound crazy but look at this. 

Bichette's 2023 MLB numbers first then Ortiz 2023 AAA numbers second

Avg EV - 90.2, 90
Hard-Hit% - 44.9, 44.6
90th EV - 106.6, 105.3
Sweet-Spot% - 38.3, 38.8
Chase% - 36.4, 32
Whiff% - 21.1, 16
K% - 19.1, 17.7
BB% - 4.5, 8.2

The huge difference between the 2 is one thing. Barrel Rate. Bichette's barrel rate was 9.6% and Ortiz's was 2%. They had pretty darn similar EV numbers and contact rates. Can Ortiz start elevating the ball better is the big question. I think he can probably improve it somewhat, but doubt he improves it to the level of Bichette who is slightly above league average in barrel rate. Poor man's Bo Bichette offensively with plus middle infield glove would be a very solid regular. Hopefully Ortiz can pan out.

Obviously, AAA pitching is quite a it different than MLB pitching.  I applaud the effort, but I just don't think you can compare the two and get anything out of it.

Maybe compare them using AAA for both players, then see what we have.

[Jastro]

 

[markedman5]

11 minutes ago, Jastro said:

 

I know they don’t want to say “sold” when it comes to a human but do they really think calling it “traded for cash” is fooling anyone? 💰

[Matt Breen]

Brewers reportedly talked to the Yankees about Burnes, asking for a deal centered around OF Spencer Jones - who is #86 on MLB's Top 100 chart. 

The Yankees said no. They also reportedly said the same thing to the White Sox when they offered Dylan Cease. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/quick-hits-roster-sizes-phillies-yankees-burnes.html

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, reillymcshane said:

Brewers reportedly talked to the Yankees about Burnes, asking for a deal centered around OF Spencer Jones - who is #86 on MLB's Top 100 chart. 

The Yankees said no. They also reportedly said the same thing to the White Sox when they offered Dylan Cease. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/quick-hits-roster-sizes-phillies-yankees-burnes.html

Interesting. I'd imagine they think more highly of him than the industry does or else...it seems like a fairly easy starting point.

I'd love to see a teams rankings from...say 10 years ago. Just for my own curiosity. Or when Trout, Harper, and Moore were 1-2-3 in varying orders. Just see how differently teams view their players. I'm sure at most we'll get some anecdotes, but little more. 

[Frisbee Slider]

A lot of middle middle location from Burnes in his first inning. He has not performed well on Opening Days.

Brewers win the trade.

[owbc]

19 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

A lot of middle middle location from Burnes in his first inning. He has not performed well on Opening Days.

Brewers win the trade.

Now he's learning what it feels like to get run support. 

[markedman5]

Burnes with a dominant outing.. ….11 ks and only the1 run through 6