What is wrong with Aaron Ashby?

[Mr Southpaw]

I have been following him at Nashville and it seems as if he cannot get his act together. He is giving up a lot of walks and not missing very many bats. Is he just working through the shoulder surgery or is it something else?

[rolafaive]

The Brewers signed him to long-term in order to stabilize the pitching rotation, he never pitched more than a number 3 or 4 rotation guy, and had the same problem when he was in the rotation before the injury, Ashby will probably be no more than probably a guy out of the pen from this point on. Brewers would do well to try to get something for him in a trade and keep working with the younger talent.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

5 hours ago, rolafaive said:

... and keep working with the younger talent.

Define "younger". Ashby turned 26 roughly three weeks ago. He also looked very solid in his last spot start for the Brewers. Wouldn't be so quick to write him off quite yet.

[BrewerFan]

15 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Define "younger". Ashby turned 26 roughly three weeks ago. He also looked very solid in his last spot start for the Brewers. Wouldn't be so quick to write him off quite yet.

Right...I see zero reason to give up on him. Shoulders take a while to come back from and he's under team control and cheap for a while. If he's "only" a guy who can throw a couple of innings out of the pen, fine. But he was just a guy who had an outstanding start for us. I'm also just not sure what we're going to get for him that'll be worth it. 

 

 

[wildcat2237]

I agree with Robinson's Beard and BrewerFan. Ashby is just now coming back from a major shoulder surgery. With his longterm deal the Brewers will give him every chance to make it as a starter. If not, then at some point I think they move him to the pen and let him unleash for 1-2 innings. 

The bottom line is that we are probably at least 12 months  or so from the organization even considering throwing in the towel on Ashby. 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, wildcat2237 said:

I agree with Robinson's Beard and BrewerFan. Ashby is just now coming back from a major shoulder surgery. With his longterm deal the Brewers will give him every chance to make it as a starter. If not, then at some point I think they move him to the pen and let him unleash for 1-2 innings. 

The bottom line is that we are probably at least 12 months  or so from the organization even considering throwing in the towel on Ashby. 

Just one more thing to at least consider...it's AAA. You often see pitchers focus more on the process than the outcome in AAA.

At the next level, it's all about results and doesn't matter how you get there. When you're working your way back, it's obviously a mix. Maybe he's focusing on his...slider command in situations where he could get an out with a FB(edit, just a hypothetical, maybe it's the opposite, whatever).

Just a thought. Could be totally wrong as he seems to be in a position where he's trying to just get right, but...that's always something to consider when looking at MiLB stats. 

 

Either way, I think we've seen enough from him to make a pretty educated guess that he'd be a very good reliever. As a long man or a specialist. You don't ever want to give up on a special arm too early. If 12 months from now he's struggling(as you said) then you re-evaluate. 

[bigred]

2 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Define "younger". Ashby turned 26 roughly three weeks ago. He also looked very solid in his last spot start for the Brewers. Wouldn't be so quick to write him off quite yet.

Define very solid. Imo, 5 walks in 5 innings isn't very "solid". Plus, he's lost velocity big-time. I.hope he's included in a trade at some point. 

[JCREW]

I live down south and was at the game at Gwinnett yesterday (6/16). DL Hall pitched the first two innings. The Gwinnett hitters just looked off balance against Hall. Hall was sitting 91-93

I went out by the bullpen with my kids to watch Ashby warm up. He was definitely working on stuff. He seemed to be checking with the BP catcher and other pitchers on the way his breaking pitches were coming out of the hand and whether they had late movement or not. 

Once he got into the game, he gave up quite a bit of hard contact. His fastball was sitting 93-95, but the Gwinnett hitters seemed much more at ease facing Ashby than Hall. 

I'm hoping that he's refining somethings with his breaking pitches, and will eventually be able to live around 94 with good breaking stuff. 

[LouisEly]

3 hours ago, wildcat2237 said:

I agree with Robinson's Beard and BrewerFan. Ashby is just now coming back from a major shoulder surgery.

I don't know if anyone here has had major surgery or even minor surgery but a doctor friend of mine said it's very common to have some numb/"dead" spots where the surgeries took place.  It can take a while for that numbness/"dead spot" to go away, and often doesn't ever go away completely, so you have to develop a "feel" for something in a place where you may no longer have any feeling.  That's part of the rehab process.

[BallFour]

Biggest difference besides the obvious command issues is that he doesn't have the breaking ball that he had pre-surgery. His breaking ball was easily his best pitch. Now he has throttled down the usage considerably post surgery. I don't whether that is a command issue or a stuff issue or both. But even if his command gets better he will struggle without that pitch being what it was pre surgery.

[sveumrules]

I had this year marked down as rehab/recovery for Ashby, and figured anything he might contribute to the MLB club would be an unexpected surprise.

That said, it’d be nice to have more than a handful of decent outings to file in the Encouraging column compared to considerably more entries under the Discouraging header to this point. I guess that he’s stayed healthy enough to take the mound (no matter the results) is a pretty big positive in and of itself.

I’ll definitely give Aaron more time to start stringing together effective outings, but to me he’s always looked more like a stiff thrower (with undeniably nasty stuff pre surgery) than he has ever looked like an athlete with feel to pitch, which I think diminishes his chances somewhat or maybe lengthens the timeline coming back from something like this.

[torts]

On 6/17/2024 at 2:42 PM, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Define "younger". Ashby turned 26 roughly three weeks ago. He also looked very solid in his last spot start for the Brewers. Wouldn't be so quick to write him off quite yet.

We stuck with houser for a long time id expect they do the same with ashby

[BrewCrew8675309]

I have no idea why we are debating this as he is a recovering power lefty that is young-ish and MOST importantly...is already paid. This is not the NFL where you can wait till June 1st to cut a guy and save money. He has banked it already.

Be patient like we all were with Yelich and see what the pitching lab can do once he gets to 100% (which may take even more time). If he hits, great...if not, then it is a Jimmy Nelson level shame and what might have been.

He needs another year or so...not sooner. 

[Jopal78]

Ashby pitched about 131 innings before tearing his labrum. He had mediocre stats with an ERA+ of 91 and a FIP of 3.95. 
 

We’ll never know what his true potential was. Based on other pitchers who tore their throwing arm labrum, the odds suggest he’ll ever be 100% of what he was before the injury.

That the Brewers are signing pitchers off the street, and promoting pitchers from AA to the majors, while Ashby is “healthy” in AAA tells us all we need to know about what they think of him right now post injury. 
 

Likely, without significant improvement he gets DFA’d once he is out of options. 

[Playing Catch]

10 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Likely, without significant improvement he gets DFA’d once he is out of options. 

He's on a MLB contract with team control through 2029 (Two club options in '28 and '29). There's plenty of time to let him try to recover to at least be worth the money he's been guaranteed.

[Outlander]

We are no where near this point yet but a DFA would get him off the 40 man and perhaps somebody would take on the contract. Kind of what they did with Josh Lindblom.

[Jopal78]

9 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

He's on a MLB contract with team control through 2029 (Two club options in '28 and '29). There's plenty of time to let him try to recover to at least be worth the money he's been guaranteed.

After this season, his average annual value is $6 million. It is already a pre-arbitration extension that blew up in the Brewers’ face.
 

I’m sure he’ll get more chances but when he’s out of options and if he still has a ERA over 6 in AAA; it’s not a difficult choice to DFA him. 

[LouisEly]

Reminder that Zack Wheeler missed his entire age 25 and 26 seasons with injury and in his age 27 season had a 5.21 ERA, walked 4.2/9, and missed the last 1/3rd of that season with injury.

Let's not give up too soon.

[bugslive32]

2 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Reminder that Zack Wheeler missed his entire age 25 and 26 seasons with injury and in his age 27 season had a 5.21 ERA, walked 4.2/9, and missed the last 1/3rd of that season with injury.

Let's not give up too soon.

Ashby reminds me of Dana Eveland instead. Ok stuff and results in the minor. But not the control or mental makeup to ever stay in the majors. For every risk you take with a contract like this, you also get a Freddie Peralta result so I’m okay with this. Ashby just never really impressed me in his pre-injury days when they signed him to his contract. He just seemed to be lucky from the eye test to make it through his innings at the majors.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 hours ago, bugslive32 said:

Ashby reminds me of Dana Eveland instead. Ok stuff and results in the minor. But not the control or mental makeup to ever stay in the majors. For every risk you take with a contract like this, you also get a Freddie Peralta result so I’m okay with this. Ashby just never really impressed me in his pre-injury days when they signed him to his contract. He just seemed to be lucky from the eye test to make it through his innings at the majors.

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

I disagree about Ashby. I've never been super-high on him but still think there's a good chance he holds his own in the long run. Coming back from a shoulder surgery is a lengthy process.

[BrewerFan]

On 6/17/2024 at 5:33 PM, LouisEly said:

I don't know if anyone here has had major surgery or even minor surgery but a doctor friend of mine said it's very common to have some numb/"dead" spots where the surgeries took place.  It can take a while for that numbness/"dead spot" to go away, and often doesn't ever go away completely, so you have to develop a "feel" for something in a place where you may no longer have any feeling.  That's part of the rehab process.

I've had a lot of surgeries and my shoulder was the worst. They weren't trying to get me to be able to throw a ball again, but...it was brutal. Broken Ankle, Femur, Wrist, torn ACL(s) and shoulder was the most painful rehab and the most frustrating just rebuilding strength. 

I'd imagine back and neck would be worse. I don't know that I recall any dead spots, but I also wasn't trying to get my spin rate up or rehab like that, just regain functional strength. 

[Lathund]

Anyone not impressed by Ashby before his injuries is staring too hard at the most surface level stat of all, ERA. You don't even have to scratch below the most shallow earth layer to see more; xERA of 2.99 and 3.75 in his first two years, a 3.24 xFIP. But to me the thing that made me really excited was that he was combining a high strikeout rate (10.7 K/9, 27 K%) with an elite groundball rate (58%). Now I remember looking at that at the time, and there was hardly anyone in all of the majors who had both. Normally a high strikeout rate goes along with more flyballs due to the location and pitches used (Such as 4-seamers up int he zone), so Ashby getting those strikeout numbers with a groundball arsenal was huge. He still had work to do to put it all together, but the ability to miss bats and keep the ball on the ground meant that it wouldn't take much improvement to command or poise or endurance for him to be really good. 

Sadly though, so much of that was due to that power 2-seamer he had. And I don't know if he's ever getting that back at the same velo. And that's a pitch where velo matters a ton. Absolutely no reason to give up on him though, he's got options for this year and next (And he'd likely pass through waivers if DFAd anyway) so let's just be patient. Shoulder injuries sometimes take time. 

[Brian]

Our Nashville team always used to be at the top of there MiLB in there division.  Looks like the Brewers MLB team sucked most of the life out of them also. https://www.milb.com/nashville/standings/ 

[Austin Tatious]

His shoulder is obviously not back up to strength yet.  Can’t judge him based on his shoulder not being there yet.  We will know a lot more this time next year.  

[Jopal78]

On 6/21/2024 at 9:55 AM, Playing Catch said:

He's on a MLB contract with team control through 2029 (Two club options in '28 and '29). There's plenty of time to let him try to recover to at least be worth the money he's been guaranteed.

Let’s not kid ourselves. Even pre-surgery Ashby’s walks, Hits and homers allowed per 9 would put him in back of the rotation/swingman territory. Great stuff not so great command. 

The deck is now stacked against him. Velocity isn’t back to what it was pre-injury and his not so great pre-surgery command has also slipped. 

Like I said, I’m sure the contract will get him another chance with Milwaukee especially with an option year remaining, but even a small market team will simply eat the contract when he’s out of options; if he cannot improve upon his 8+ era and 1:1 BB:K ratio in the minor leagues