Article: 2024 MLB Draft Day 1 Thread

[sveumrules]

3 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

What did I say that was untrue? Everything you say is an opinion same as me. They both have merit. You seem to think mine does not not. You are incorrect. 

I don’t believe I posted an opinion in the entire thread.

Your posts displayed a fundamental misunderstanding of how MLB teams (not just the Brewers) approach the draft & accompanying bonus pool system. 

[Bulldogboy]

Just now, sveumrules said:

I don’t believe I posted an opinion in the entire thread.

Your posts displayed a fundamental misunderstanding of how MLB teams (not just the Brewers) approach the draft & accompanying bonus pool system. 

Again my opinion is that just because it's the way do it means it makes sense. Drafting the 60 best player in the 17th player slot doesn't necessarily make for good sense. Nothing you say is going to change that opinion so just keep scrolling if you don't agree. That's all. Your condescending approach is tiresome. 

[duewizard]

The mute option on this site is a godsend

[CheezWizHed]

22 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

Again my opinion is that just because it's the way do it means it makes sense. Drafting the 60 best player in the 17th player slot doesn't necessarily make for good sense. Nothing you say is going to change that opinion so just keep scrolling if you don't agree. That's all. Your condescending approach is tiresome. 

I'm going to guess he wasn't #60 on the Brewer's board.  The Brewers have a pretty good drafting history and have one of the top-rated system as a result.  

It's your choice to get all worked up and complain, but you won't really know if they did it right for a year or two.  Many people were complaining similarly last year, but here we are a year later and we have 3 players looking to break into AAA this year and one other that broke into the top 100 MLB prospects.

Sometimes you just need to trust the process. 

[NOMAAM]

30 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

Again my opinion is that just because it's the way do it means it makes sense. Drafting the 60 best player in the 17th player slot doesn't necessarily make for good sense. Nothing you say is going to change that opinion so just keep scrolling if you don't agree. That's all. Your condescending approach is tiresome. 

He can’t have less of an impact than the Brewers number 5 pick several years back.

Ended up costing a fortune and giving the big club zip.

[wiguy94]

For what’s a pretty low floor/ceiling pick, I’m seriously excited to watch Blake Burke swing the bat. Would be awesome if he panned out and turned into a future every day/strong side DH

[Team Canada]

Please stop this moronic "You are wrong." "No, you are wrong!" back and forth.  They're going to be hidden anyway and it doesn't add actual meaningful discussion. You can do better.

[Bulldogboy]

18 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I'm going to guess he wasn't #60 on the Brewer's board.  The Brewers have a pretty good drafting history and have one of the top-rated system as a result.  

It's your choice to get all worked up and complain, but you won't really know if they did it right for a year or two.  Many people were complaining similarly last year, but here we are a year later and we have 3 players looking to break into AAA this year and one other that broke into the top 100 MLB prospects.

Sometimes you just need to trust the process. 

Relative to what? How many world series have they won? The Florida Marlins have two 😳. The length people go to just say the Brewers are top flight top tier organization is really strange. Are they good? Sure. Are they beyond reproach? Not at all. If they even just make a World Series I will stand down. Till then questions can and should be asked. 

[Bulldogboy]

1 minute ago, Bulldogboy said:

Relative to what? How many world series have they won? The Florida Marlins have two 😳. The length people go to just say the Brewers are top flight top tier organization is really strange. Are they good? Sure. Are they beyond reproach? Not at all. If they even just make a World Series I will stand down. Till then questions can and should be asked. 

Tonight the graphic I saw said 14 ranked. That's middle of the pact isn't it?

[sveumrules]

21 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

For what’s a pretty low floor/ceiling pick, I’m seriously excited to watch Blake Burke swing the bat. Would be awesome if he panned out and turned into a future every day/strong side DH

Looks like he’ll fit right in…

[CheeseheadInQC]

The kind of flattened bonus pool strategy is really fitting given the greatest strength and greatest weakness of the Brewers system right now is there isn’t a ton of difference between #4 and #30.

[Redd Vencher]

17 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

Relative to what? How many world series have they won? The Florida Marlins have two 😳. The length people go to just say the Brewers are top flight top tier organization is really strange. Are they good? Sure. Are they beyond reproach? Not at all. If they even just make a World Series I will stand down. Till then questions can and should be asked. 

Drafting wise, the Brewers are a top 5-7 org (They're 4th of the 15 teams I've gotten through, and only the Orioles are the surefire team to be better amongst the teams left) in results during the Stearns/Arnold era, so far. The 2023 draft looks like it could be an all timer, and the 2022 draft will be one of the better ones if Mis is what the Brewers think he is. We still have another 10 years before we have a nearly complete picture of how well Stearns/Arnold drafted 2016-2023, but to reiterate they're off to a good start.

[wiguy94]

One of the people who was involved in making Baseball Prospectus draft board has Chris Levonas as his top prep arm in the draft. 

 

[Ro Mueller]

Sorry to re-open this can of worms, but my understanding of why we cannot select the Best Prospect Available is that:

1) We’d end up paying the Cooper Pratts of the world $2.5m signing bonuses instead of $1.35m, costing ourselves a $1.15m second prospect in the process ; OR
2) We’d set too high of a $$ expectation for some Day 1/2 draftees, ultimately failing to sign 1 or 2 in what most would consider an embarrassingly failed draft.

I think there’s an amazing amount of art & science that goes into drafting,:

- with teams needing near-100% certainly that all Day 1 and Day 2 picks will sign (so no draft pool money is forfeited); 
- with reps of high schoolers telling you on Day 1 that so-and-so kid really has his sights set on fulfilling his commitment to LSU and won’t consider signing for anything below $2m, then those prospects and their families having a serious re-think on Sunday evening and singing a different tune on Monday; AND
- with some HS prospects and their families simply saying “No” to certain MLB clubs who’ve failed to win their trust. 

[igor67]

Have we started to see any NIL deals on the baseball side that might affect what players sign for?

[Jake McKibbin]

9 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

Man, just look at how athletic and with such good extension Levonas. I just love this pick.

 

2600 RPM on a fastball is insane. I wonder what the IVB numbers on that must be like, those are sticky stuff level numbers

[CheezWizHed]

8 hours ago, Bulldogboy said:

Relative to what? How many world series have they won? The Florida Marlins have two 😳. The length people go to just say the Brewers are top flight top tier organization is really strange. Are they good? Sure. Are they beyond reproach? Not at all. If they even just make a World Series I will stand down. Till then questions can and should be asked. 

I don't recall anyone saying they were a top-flight, top-tier organization.  Just that they are a good drafting organization - regularly a top 10 system while drafting in the second half of each round. 

Much still remains for holding onto their top talent which leaves them scrambling and fighting to succeed with less. But that is a different argument for a different thread. 

Beyond reproach? No.  But the lengths at which you go do not understand the approach they take or compare to other teams' success rate is also not beyond reproach. 

[nate82]

29 minutes ago, igor67 said:

Have we started to see any NIL deals on the baseball side that might affect what players sign for?

No.  I doubt there is much NIL money going to the baseball side maybe a bit more than what the track and field people get but not much more.  NIL money goes Football -------> Men's Basketball ----> Women's Basketball -----------> Women's Gymnastics --> Women's Volleyball ----> Soccer / Hockey --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------> everything else. 

NIL money isn't really a thing for baseball and if it is it is a smaller amount than what you could get in the draft.  There are probably a few players who could get a top deal but I doubt they even crack the top 15 in terms of NIL deals.  So the top players may get more than what you would earn in the minor leagues but everyone else it is probably less than what you would get in the minors.  This is not taking into account any bonus money from being drafted either. 

 

 

[nate82]

All of the Brewers picks participated in the MLB combine which I found interesting. 

Of the players remaining I am interested in the following but they may need more money to sign than what the Brewers have left in their pool.

Carson Wiggins RHP (HS)

Mike Sirota OF

Mason Russell LHP (HS)

Gage Miller 1B/OF

Ryan Prager LHP

There will probably be some senior signs to even out the bonus pool so maybe one of Wiggins or Russell could be added with an over slot deal.

[LouisEly]

53 minutes ago, nate82 said:

NIL money goes Football -------> Men's Basketball ---->

Maybe in totality due to there being 85 scholarship football players and 13 scholarship basketball players, but on a per-player basis basketball players get way, way more than football players.  But even in totality, it's very close.  Only QBs can get anywhere near what basketball players get.

[wallus]

I wouldn't put any of the guys drafted so far in our top 10 prospects list. I don't know if that is a sign of our system or the quality of this draft or both.

[mudbutt]

I think it is more of the quality of the system.  And not necessarily the quality of this draft, but that they are picking super young guys.  But I try not to get caught up in the rankings and such.  If one of the young guys performs early, they will absolutely skyrocket up the charts. 

It's also why BPA is such a fallacy to me.  Like what does it even mean?  I think we should take all stars and hall of famers in the draft.  Good strategy!  No one knows who the best player will be, especially in baseball where you have massive projections of high schoolers and college kids that have to traverse up multiple leagues just to sniff the big leagues.  And that's before you get to injury stuff and such as well.  The meaningful part of BPA is not about taking the best player, it's about not forcing a pick at a position because you lack depth at it ie we don't have any third base prospects in the system and our pick is coming up, who do we like the best that's left. 

It is all about what tiers you place them based on traits, potential projections, signability etc etc.  And also where you draft.  Like if the Brewers were picking top 10, I don't think you would have seen them go with this strategy again.  But picking later I think it is the preferred way to go about it.  To me going underslot early so you can go over with guys later is the equivalent of trading down in a NFL draft to get more picks.  Get me more pulls on the slot machine and see what shakes out.

[brewers888]

Very much in favor of the last two picks but that still doesn't take away what I think was a throwaway of a first round pick and the Burnes pick most likely being wasted on a Vogelbach type. As amazing as the 23 draft was so far I am quite underwhelmed with the early results but hopefully we can draft a few Pratts and Bitontis today to make up for the first round debacle.

[nate82]

21 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Very much in favor of the last two picks but that still doesn't take away what I think was a throwaway of a first round pick and the Burnes pick most likely being wasted on a Vogelbach type. As amazing as the 23 draft was so far I am quite underwhelmed with the early results but hopefully we can draft a few Pratts and Bitontis today to make up for the first round debacle.

In order to draft the Pratt’s and Bitoni’s you have to do what the Brewers did in the first round.  You have to be able to sign someone to an under slot deal to do this.  You are not going to be able to do this with players ranked around where you are picking.  There seems to be this disconnect where people think you can do both when this is not the reality.

[brewfanmn]

27 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Very much in favor of the last two picks but that still doesn't take away what I think was a throwaway of a first round pick and the Burnes pick most likely being wasted on a Vogelbach type. As amazing as the 23 draft was so far I am quite underwhelmed with the early results but hopefully we can draft a few Pratts and Bitontis today to make up for the first round debacle.

If you are in favor of the last two picks, then by definition you are in favor of the first two picks as well.