Playoff Opponent Options

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Looks to me like it's coming down to the Mets, DBacks, or Braves. Currently, the Mets and DBacks are tied (assuming Arizona goes on to lose to Colorado tonight--they trail 5-1 in the 7th). The Braves are two back. DBacks lose tiebreakers to both teams. Braves and Mets tiebreaker is TBD, depending on outcome of their final 3-game series. Currently, it's 5-5.

Schedules: DBacks go 1 Rockies, 4 Brewers, 3 Giants, 3 Padres

Mets go 1 Nats, 4 Phillies, 3 Braves, 3 Brewers

Braves go 2 Reds, 3 Marlins, 3 Mets, 3 Royals

Mets have the toughest road but also have been playing the best baseball. DBacks have that terrifying lineup, not to mention last year's deep postseason run, which began in a way we'd all prefer to forget. Braves can throw Sale and Reynaldo Lopez in a short series. It's a tough call.

I think...the Mets are the team I DON'T want to see. They've really been pitching well, they hate Hoskins, and they got some bona fide good hitters.

That leaves ATL and AZ. I can see the Brewers having advantages against either of these teams, although the DBacks offense is maybe the scariest element of any of the three teams. Their pitching is such a mess, though.

I think I'd take the Braves if I could pick. It's close, though. And we all know it's random, small sample playoff baseball. The only way it might be worthwhile to face the Mets is if they're having to go all out against the Crew those last three games.

Curious to hear what others think. Obviously, the hope is that all three of these teams stick close and come in to the playoffs having had to manage every game with maximizing TOR starts and "A" bullpen innings.

[StearnsFTW]

Teams I'd prefer to face in order:

Mets

Braves

Padres

Diamondbacks

 

[owbc]

The main thing that worries me about this wildcard format is getting caught off-guard by a hot opponent who has already been playing must win games prior to the series. Seeing the Mets in the last series would play to our advantage I think. We're also fairly familiar with the D'backs and we can win a slugfest series. The Braves look dead right now, but if they do make the WC it means they probably figured it out and I wouldn't want to cross paths with them. 

Ideally I don't want us to do any significant resting/benching of key players, so I hope we're still fighting for the bye up to game 162. Get the rotation aligned and give the key players a game off, but that's all we should do. There's a day off prior to the WC series at at least one and potentially two days off prior to the DS. That's enough rest. 

[wiguy94]

I would definitely not prefer the Braves. The Brewers struggle against LHSP and the Braves have the NL Cy Young and Max Fried to throw at us in a potential series.

[Outlander]

Sure feels like it will be the Diamondbacks again. Mets continnue to be hot and should end up in that 5 spot.

[kestrel79]

Any of these teams will be tough. It's the playoffs there's no "easy" team this year like the Rockies kinda were in 2018 where we just rolled them. We're just gonna have to be that hot team for a change and not the other guys to win.

[jay87shot]

I know the Mets are hot but none of there pitchers scare me and there bullpen is weak. I am not so much worried about how the other team is playing but more so worried about our offense hitting one of those 2/3 games cold streaks. The D-backs pitching is similar to the mets but they have Gallen and Kelley who gave us fits even though they are having more of down years. I think the Braves rotation worries me the most but injuries on the offense kind of offset that.

Maybe we can just get a top 2 spot and not worry about the 1st round.

[adambr2]

22 hours ago, kestrel79 said:

Any of these teams will be tough. It's the playoffs there's no "easy" team this year like the Rockies kinda were in 2018 where we just rolled them. We're just gonna have to be that hot team for a change and not the other guys to win.

Agreed. There's no easy out in the NL. It's going to be a tough first opponent and if there are more opponents they will only get tougher. 

I'd go as far as to say I'm not certain that we will be the betting favorite in our matchup to get out of the WC round. 

[Playing Catch]

53 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I'd go as far as to say I'm not certain that we will be the betting favorite in our matchup to get out of the WC round. 

This is correct. I also would expect that statistical models of game-by-game success may disagree with betting odds. I'm NOT a gambler, so I really have no idea how that stuff works, but I would imagine the sharps would be putting money ON the Brewers.

[Playing Catch]

Maybe @sveumrules could help with this...

I'm really curious about the Brewers offense. Why do I suspect that the Brewers have a better record than most teams when they don't hit a home run? My larger point about the Brewers bats is that they must have one of the deepest, most varied offenses in the sport. Home runs are great, obviously. The Brewers are middle-of-the-pack with home runs. They DO have guys that hit home runs, or CAN hit home runs, which we all know is really important. But I'd bet they create more offense than any other team in baseball, which can really be helpful in the playoffs, and against tough bullpens. Working counts, fouling pitches, stealing bases. Having both power threats, baserunning threats, and even bunting threats makes them very, very challenging.

If the Brewers can keep the ball in the park, I think they can win a lot of playoff games.

[nate82]

Braves and the Padres are the two teams that I wouldn't want to face right now.  The Braves are looking like they are getting healthy again.  I don't really want to see that team in the playoffs.  The Padres are just as good as the Phillies and the Dodgers and in some ways better than them and a far worse match up for the Brewers.  I would rather play the Phillies or Dodgers than the Padres. 

[adambr2]

I just want to also add (and of course it's convenient for me to say since it obviously affects us adversely more than anyone), this format absolutely sucks. They've watered down the playoff field, though at least all NL playoff teams this year will be good ones. 

But it sucks that we're going to get bunched in with the 3 wild card teams rather than the 2 division winners and have to play a short series where anything can happen just to even make the NLDS. 

I thought the one WC, 4 team format was perfect.  I could even stomach the 5 team format with the two WCs doing the play-in, though I liked the 4 team more. 

Oh well, just a rant since they're obviously never going to go back. More teams = more games = more money. 

[Brian]

On 9/18/2024 at 10:26 AM, StearnsFTW said:

Teams I'd prefer to face in order:

Mets

Braves

Padres

Diamondbacks

 

I agree either the Braves or Mets plus they have a rainout to make up I believe. 

Inclement Weather - Makeup date Sept 26

 

 

 

New York Mets

84-68, 41-34 away

Postponed

 

 

 

Atlanta Braves

82-70, 42-33 home

[sveumrules]

13 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

Maybe @sveumrules could help with this...

I'm really curious about the Brewers offense. Why do I suspect that the Brewers have a better record than most teams when they don't hit a home run? My larger point about the Brewers bats is that they must have one of the deepest, most varied offenses in the sport. Home runs are great, obviously. The Brewers are middle-of-the-pack with home runs. They DO have guys that hit home runs, or CAN hit home runs, which we all know is really important. But I'd bet they create more offense than any other team in baseball, which can really be helpful in the playoffs, and against tough bullpens. Working counts, fouling pitches, stealing bases. Having both power threats, baserunning threats, and even bunting threats makes them very, very challenging.

If the Brewers can keep the ball in the park, I think they can win a lot of playoff games.

Checking the Brewers game logs on BRef it looks like they are 23 W - 27 L when they don't HR.

If I counted right the other NL contenders are at...

SDP (20 W - 29 L)
NYM (16 W - 28 L)
PHI (16 W - 29 L)
LAD (15 W - 32 L)
ATL (16 W - 35 L)
ARI (14 W- 34 L)

[StearnsFTW]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Checking the Brewers game logs on BRef it looks like they are 23 W - 27 L when they don't HR.

If I counted right the other NL contenders are at...

SDP (20 W - 29 L)
NYM (16 W - 28 L)
PHI (16 W - 29 L)
LAD (15 W - 32 L)
ATL (16 W - 35 L)
ARI (14 W- 34 L)

My gut reaction was that 23-27 was pretty good.

 

Looks like it.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I really like the idea of Mets players being in the same hotel room for nearly a full week at the start of a playoff series against the Brewers. I get cabin fever in the nicest hotel rooms in Vegas after 3-4 days. I can't imagine being in the same Milwaukee hotel room for a week plus. Gimme the Mets in round 1.

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

I really like the idea of Mets players being in the same hotel room for nearly a full week at the start of a playoff series against the Brewers. I get cabin fever in the nicest hotel rooms in Vegas after 3-4 days. I can't imagine being in the same Milwaukee hotel room for a week plus. Gimme the Mets in round 1.

Would give the Pfister's ghosts plenty of time to do their work.

[thebruce44]

18 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

I really like the idea of Mets players being in the same hotel room for nearly a full week at the start of a playoff series against the Brewers. 

Don't you think they can afford more than 1 hotel room?

[BruisedCrew]

22 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Checking the Brewers game logs on BRef it looks like they are 23 W - 27 L when they don't HR.

If I counted right the other NL contenders are at...

SDP (20 W - 29 L)
NYM (16 W - 28 L)
PHI (16 W - 29 L)
LAD (15 W - 32 L)
ATL (16 W - 35 L)
ARI (14 W- 34 L)

I raised this awhile ago and didn't get any responses.

It has been my impression that the last few months, starting with the Grand Slam Week in June, the Brewers have scored a higher percentage of their runs on HR than they did early in the season.

I wonder if there is a way to confirm this and to compare what percentage of their runs scored on HR compares to other playoff teams.

[young guns]

22 minutes ago, thebruce44 said:

Don't you think they can afford more than 1 hotel room?

Nope.  After the madoff fiasco, they can't even afford a suite for their entire team so they are all just crammed into a regular sized room every series.

[sveumrules]

27 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I raised this awhile ago and didn't get any responses.

It has been my impression that the last few months, starting with the Grand Slam Week in June, the Brewers have scored a higher percentage of their runs on HR than they did early in the season.

I wonder if there is a way to confirm this and to compare what percentage of their runs scored on HR compares to other playoff teams.

Not sure of an easy way to track that info down without going through individual game logs.

Kind of a crude measure, but through June 30 the Brewers had 405 runs scored and 86 home runs, 4.71 R/HR.

Since July 1st it’s 331 runs scored and 85 home runs, 3.89 R/HR.

Based on that it would appear your impression is correct & they have become more HR reliant recently compared to earlier in the year.

For some context here are the full season ratios of the NL contenders…

MIL (4.30 R/HR)
736 R / 171 HR

ARI (4.24 R/HR)
840 R / 198 HR

SDP (4.03 R/HR)
726 R / 180 HR

PHI (3.99 R/HR)
739 R / 185 HR

NYM (3.74 R/HR)
740 R / 198 HR

LAD (3.63 R/HR)
788 R / 217 HR

ATL (3.36 R/HR)
668 R / 199 HR

With that context the Brewers performance since July 1st (3.89 R/HR) would be closer to the middle of the pack.

[Fear The Chorizo]

23 hours ago, adambr2 said:

I just want to also add (and of course it's convenient for me to say since it obviously affects us adversely more than anyone), this format absolutely sucks. They've watered down the playoff field, though at least all NL playoff teams this year will be good ones. 

But it sucks that we're going to get bunched in with the 3 wild card teams rather than the 2 division winners and have to play a short series where anything can happen just to even make the NLDS. 

I thought the one WC, 4 team format was perfect.  I could even stomach the 5 team format with the two WCs doing the play-in, though I liked the 4 team more. 

Oh well, just a rant since they're obviously never going to go back. More teams = more games = more money. 

I despise this format, because it doesn't put near enough value on the regular season and winning your division.  1st team to clinch a division title and they're likely going to be opening the postseason with a 2 out of 3 series that's as random as it gets.  Would much rather prefer finding a way to have four divisions in each league with as balanced a schedule as can be, and go with a no wild card, division winner only format.  If that's too old school, then the format with 3 division winners, 2 wild cards and have the wild card be a 1 game playoff round makes more sense to me than this.

[nate82]

MLB is never going back to the 3 division and 1 WC format.  It is just not happening.  If anything they will add more playoff spots which is the plan once the league expands.

[sveumrules]

30 minutes ago, nate82 said:

MLB is never going back to the 3 division and 1 WC format.  It is just not happening.  If anything they will add more playoff spots which is the plan once the league expands.

Yup. Expand to 32 equals two leagues with four divisions of four teams each.

Four division winners get in and they'll probably bump it to three Wild Cards so only the #1 seed gets the bye.

Essentially the NFL postseason format.

[Team Canada]

More divisions just means more likelihood of a weak division winner who doesn't deserve it. It'd be better (in that respect) to have 2 divisions with more wildcards (say, halfway to the NBA where it's purely your conference standing).