Developed - Devin Williams to the Yankees for Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin

[MilwaukeeBeers]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Durbin was the breakout player of the year in the Arizona Fall League. Stout, compact middle infielder with pop.

Not sure I call a guy with EVs comparable to Sal someone with "pop"

[jay87shot]

1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

We're getting a better player for less money this year plus one additional year of team control...AND we're getting a prospect. Which part is "yuck"?

AND, neither player coming back has a wall-punching celebration in their scouting report

Cortez isn't better than Devin, he throws 92mph with poor secondary pitches. I think I read Devin is projected 8.3 on Nestor is 8.4. If you want to say that is saving money go for it but come that is a wash. Devin has been one of the best relievers the past 5 years, Nestor is more like a weak #3/good #4. Don't let sour grapes from the Alonso HR change this.

[patrickgpe]

I wanted an Adames replacement in return for Williams if they moved him. While I cannot say he will be a starting Middle Infielder on opening day, they have a guy who has a decent chance to play 2nd or SS for the brewers in New York. To get a year of Cortes is bonus. Depending on how Woodruff returns from injury and if Myers can keep up last years shocking improvement, he fits in #3 or #4 in the rotation which isn't cheap to get on the open market. 

[Scooterfletcher]

I wonder if we make Cortes an offer to extend him in spring training .   Then id like the deal more.   Otherwise I was hoping to trade Devin for more team control.   If I knew (for example) we were either keeping Devin or trading him for Cortes I’d rather have Cortes though.   

I think Durbin is being penciled in for the Mona role and not as a starting if for us.

i wonder if we have a 3B man we like on a team that wants a solid starter rental (Civale).   That would work for me.

Also think there is a strong chance Cortes is worthy of the comp pick offer (better than guys like Pivetta and Nick Ramirez for instance).

[Joseph Zarr]

16 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Hope is that his extreme pull rate can counteract his lack of pop. 

But, yeah, those EV #s are almost identical to Sal Frelick's. 

I think those EV's should have an asterisk, tho: he was returning from a broken wrist in the first portion of his season (thanks to @Playing Catch for that Fangraph article that touches on this). Hard to know how that impacts bat-to-ball and EV but I have to imagine, having broken my own left wrist before, it didn't help as he re-adjusted to the physical sensations of bat-to-ball.

From the same article:

Quote

I gave Durbin short shrift last year even after his .353/.456/.588 line in the 2023 Fall League. He had a good 2024 at Triple-A Scranton, including a strong second half after he returned from a fractured wrist. Durbin is short — really short, he’s 5-foot-6 — but he’s not small; he’s built like a little tank. His compact, stocky build helps keep his swing short and consistently on time to pull the baseball. His quality of contact in 2024 was commensurate with a guy who slugs under .400 at the big league level, but he was dealing with an injury that typically impacts contact quality for a while after recovery.

That's a pretty bold asterisk if you ask me. I don't think we truly know what we'll be working with but his AFL output might be hinting at it...

[PlayerHader]

Yankees sending $4.5 million, as well. 
 

Love the deal.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Devin being a malcontent must have really soured his value. I don't care if it was just one year of control he still was one of the better closers in baseball and all the Brewers could get in return was one year of Cuban Suter (I am exaggerating a bit) and a 5'6 prospect that has to probably stand on his tippytoes to grab a cheesefilled breadstick at KwikTrip. I'd wager we would have got more at the deadline than a prospect with a Monasterio level FV, but whatever such is the life of a small market 

[Playing Catch]

I both agree with @jay87shot, and disagree. I think that on paper, the Brewers are better after this trade. I also think that the return falls a bit short.

I mean, Cortes is only 5'11" and Durbin is 5'6"!

[jay87shot]

Just reported that we are getting 4.5 million in the deal as well. I don't mind that if we put that money to use well.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

2 minutes ago, PlayerHader said:

Yankees sending $4.5 million, as well. 
 

Love the deal.

Oh good more money for sand!

[Redd Vencher]

6 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Cortez isn't better than Devin, he throws 92mph with poor secondary pitches. I think I read Devin is projected 8.3 on Nestor is 8.4. If you want to say that is saving money go for it but come that is a wash. Devin has been one of the best relievers the past 5 years, Nestor is more like a weak #3/good #4. Don't let sour grapes from the Alonso HR change this.

Cortes' 7.8 fWAR over the last 3 seasons is top 30 amongst SP over that span. That's a 3+ fWAR SP if he gives you at least 150 IP.

[MVP2110]

In 2023 Devin Williams was good for 2.6 WAR(Devin was hurt last year so I used 2023), last season, Nestor Cortes was also good for 2.6 WAR. If they each perform to their most recent full season it'll be a wash and then whatever the Brewers get from Durbin over the next 6 years would be a bonus.

[markedman5]

Durbin finished last season at Triple-A and boosted his stock in the Arizona Fall League, where he batted .312/.427/.548 with five homers in 24 games with 29 stolen bases, shattering the previous record of 24, set by Rick Holifield in 1994, when the AFL’s schedule was almost twice as long as it currently is

[Joseph Zarr]

3 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

I both agree with @jay87shot, and disagree. I think that on paper, the Brewers are better after this trade. I also think that the return falls a bit short.

I mean, Cortes is only 5'11" and Durbin is 5'6"!

[patrickgpe]

6 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

I wonder if we make Cortes an offer to extend him in spring training .   Then id like the deal more.   Otherwise I was hoping to trade Devin for more team control.   If I knew (for example) we were either keeping Devin or trading him for Cortes I’d rather have Cortes though.   

.

I don't think Cortes is a long term answer. Plus the price for guys like him on the open market is still crazy. I think this was to balance salaries and the brewers wanted some help in the rotation for 2025. 

[liveforoctober]

4 minutes ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

Devin being a malcontent must have really soured his value. I don't care if it was just one year of control he still was one of the better closers in baseball and all the Brewers could get in return was one year of Cuban Suter (I am exaggerating a bit) and a 5'6 prospect that has to probably stand on his tippytoes to grab a cheesefilled breadstick at KwikTrip. I'd wager we would have got more at the deadline than a prospect with a Monasterio level FV, but whatever such is the life of a small market 

The breadsticks are almost always a lower shelf item which is below a straight arm reach for a 5'6 human. So, wrong. 

Also, if Cortes brings a Suter like stability to the clubhouse (as you are inferring) to go along with his Top 30 SP recent stats ... this is an enormous home run of a trade.

[Jopal78]

1 minute ago, jay87shot said:

Cortez isn't better than Devin, he throws 92mph with poor secondary pitches. I think I read Devin is projected 8.3 on Nestor is 8.4. If you want to say that is saving money go for it but come that is a wash. Devin has been one of the best relievers the past 5 years, Nestor is more like a weak #3/good #4. Don't let sour grapes from the Alonso HR change this.

I think it shows what the league was willing to offer for 60+ innings of Devin Williams. 
 

The Brewers got a lefty starter who strikes out a batter and inning and generally keeps the ball in the park, they got a minor leaguer who the Yankees placed on their 40 man roster but wasn’t in their immediate future plans, and the Brewers got the all important cash. 
 

This trade likely doesn’t make the Brewers significantly better in the future but importantly reallocates assets by filling the rotation and dealing from an area of surplus,

One other thing to remember is teams can always trade starting pitchers at the deadline and the Brewers now have 3 going into 2025 who will be on expiring contracts. If Milwaukee isn’t a contender in 2025 they are well positioned to get a talent infusion from shipping out veterans 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I am glad Williams is out the door. 

[MilwaukeeBeers]

9 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

The breadsticks are almost always a lower shelf item which is below a straight arm reach for a 5'6 human. So, wrong. 

Also, if Cortes brings a Suter like stability to the clubhouse (as you are inferring) to go along with his Top 30 SP recent stats ... this is an enormous home run of a trade.

It is also only one year of control for Cortes that is the bummer. The prospect comes in at 24 in their system from arguably the worst farm in baseball. I don't like scouting the statline. So I put very little stock in a Fall League jump with such a small sample. Kid also sounds injury prone as all get out. WHICH normally I don't buy into could be bad luck but sometimes there is a pattern there. Breadsticks in NEW have always been on top must be a regional placement lol.  Breadsticks in NEW have always been on top must be a regional placement lol. 

[Joseph Zarr]

Good Yankees SB Nation piece on Durbin HERE

Quote

The simple fact is that Durbin makes a sensational amount of contact and is capable of hitting balls hard at 15-degree launch angles. That’s not a perennial home run threat, but he’s an extra-base machine when you also consider his plus speed. The biggest question isn’t ability, but availability. He’s suffered through extensive injuries for two straight seasons, so he needs to show he can stay healthy — no matter how fluky the injuries might seem. He’s a lock to be protected on the 40-man roster this offseason and is likely to make his debut with the Bombers next season in a super utilityman capacity akin to Jon Berti in 2024.

Long term, it’s plausible that Durbin hits and plays well at enough positions to earn a starting gig. I have bumped my grade on Durbin from an OFP 45 to an OFP 50, and he is very likely to crack my top-10 offseason ranking.

 

[markedman5]

 

[Lathund]

I like this. I think the only way to not like it is if you overvalue relievers. An above average starter is similar in value to even an elite reliever. One way to see that is by comparing how teams pay them; the highest paid relievers ever get the same AAV as Jameson Taillon (EDIT: Actually I was slightly off; thought Taillon was like $19-20m when he was in fact $17m. But close enough to leave it in there). And this mostly comes down to the difference in innings. Yes, you can pick and choose your spots for a closer which bridges some of the gap. But it doesn't make each inning 3 times as valuable. Remember a starter always enters the game tied or with a lead too.

So Nestor and Devin, assuming similar health, aren't far apart in value. Same salary, one year of each. And the Brewers get 6 years of a player who finished real strong in AAA and AFL, and fills a positional need. WIth a profile they like; Speed, bat to ball skills, and defense (At least at 2B). 

The exit velos are a concern, but perhaps the injury tied into it. Perhaps not. And Cortes' elbow might be one too. But then again Devin just missed half a season with a back injury too. 

So yeah, to sum it up, I quite like it. If Cortes and Williams are similar, and Durbin is even an improvement on Monasterio and Dunn, then we're already better in 2025 than we looked to be yesterday. By a huge margin? No. But there's 5 years of Durbin after that. This is not a "sexy" move. The people focused on needles moving won't like it. Nor people who still think relievers can command the kind of return that Chapman did 8 years ago. It's just a steadily improving move. A big part of why the Brewers are where they are is that they keep gaining small edges here and there.  This is just a part of that. 

[HarryDoyle]

[Underachiever]

If Cortes can give them 30 starts and 174 innings (5.2 avg) like last year, I'm on board. Brewers starters just seem to be needed to keep the team in the game. If Cortes pitches six and gives up three runs, the Brewers are still in the game.

I wish that the Brewers had more pop. Durbin may be a nice player, but doesn't help their power shortage, especially with Adames and his three-run homers gone. MKE was 16th in MLB in homers, 10th among playoff teams. They work so hard to get runs. Game one of 2023 playoffs, it took the Brewers two innings, 12 batters, 45 pitches, a walk, four singles, a sacrifice and a Taylor homer to score three times. 

14 pitches and four batters later, the Dbacks had the game tied 3-3 on two homers. 

[markedman5]

Nightengale is now saying 2 million not 4.5