Developed - Devin Williams to the Yankees for Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin

[liveforoctober]

I'm cautiously bullish on Hoskins having a bounce back year for us. Last year was one year removed from injury.. we saw the "two years removed from" scenario with Winker last year, I have blind faith we get a little of that.

Hoskins was a 9 total WAR player in his 6 seasons in Philly... If we can get 1 WAR out of him this year as a part time player .. that will be a full win bump from last season. If we can improve on Bauer's side of the platoon ... I think there is reasonable optimism we can gain 2 WAR from our 1B this year over last.

[BallFour]

Really disappointing if what Ken alludes to in the article comes to fruition. He mentions Dunn and Durbin splitting 3b duties.

I wonder when we will lose Matt Arnold to a bigger market. We can't even afford payrolls bigger than the ones we had in the early 2010's.

[Devinep]

46 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Turang to stay at 2B, per Rosenthal. 
 

Easy decision to not move the Platinum Glove winner imo. 

I get wanting to keep Turang at 3B because Ortiz has a better arm. But I don’t get the whole “but he’s an elite 2B” narrative. Anyone who’d be a good SS would also be a very good 2B. By that logic, once you play 2B you can never move to SS because you’re good at 2B, you should stay there. And if you’re not a good 2B, you aren’t good enough to play SS

[liveforoctober]

16 minutes ago, BallFour said:

Really disappointing if what Ken alludes to in the article comes to fruition. He mentions Dunn and Durbin splitting 3b duties.

I wonder when we will lose Matt Arnold to a bigger market. We can't even afford payrolls bigger than the ones we had in the early 2010's.

I'm willing to let the off season play out in its entirety before discussing losing our GM.

[Playing Catch]

1 hour ago, Devinep said:

I get wanting to keep Turang at 3B because Ortiz has a better arm. But I don’t get the whole “but he’s an elite 2B” narrative. Anyone who’d be a good SS would also be a very good 2B. By that logic, once you play 2B you can never move to SS because you’re good at 2B, you should stay there. And if you’re not a good 2B, you aren’t good enough to play SS

I mentioned it in a few different threads the last few months, but I think the Brewers look at defense as "team defense". What i mean by this, is that putting a great defensive third baseman next to a good SS is the same as having an elite SS and a poor third baseman. Likewise on the 1st base side, where the Brewers currently feature a bad defensive first baseman. I wonder if the Brewers feel like they can't afford to move their platinum glove second baseman from that side of the infield.

[Thurston Fluff]

2 hours ago, liveforoctober said:

Rosenthal also dropped this little nugget in his story:

*As one might suspect, the budget-conscious Brewers are open to moving first baseman Rhys Hoskins, who will earn $18 million next season and also is owed a $4 million buyout on a mutual option for 2026.

The problem for the Brewers is that the first basemen on the free-agent market include not just Pete Alonso and Christian Walker, but also Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Josh Bell, Carlos Santana and Justin Turner.

To move Hoskins, the Brewers might need to both add cash and attach a prospect."

Or they can give him away. Not my first choice but if he's preventing the Brewers from making other moves or blocking someone they think can do as well or better for less money it may be the best of bad choices.

[Frisbee Slider]

40 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Or they can give him away.

Would someone claim him off waivers? I assume so?

Interesting way to free up money. Maybe poor form and Hoskins will almost certainly improve during a contract year.

[markedman5]

Thanks Devin 

Devin Williams (@_dvn23) • Instagram photos and videos

WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

---

20K likes, 350 comments - _dvn23 on December 14, 2024: "Thank you Milwaukee! This city & the fans will always hold a special place in my heart. I’m forever grateful to the Brewers...

 

[Devinep]

23 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Would someone claim him off waivers? I assume so?

Interesting way to free up money. Maybe poor form and Hoskins will almost certainly improve during a contract year.

I don’t think there’s any way a team would take on that contract for free. 

[LouisEly]

4 hours ago, liveforoctober said:

The problem for the Brewers is that the first basemen on the free-agent market include not just Pete Alonso and Christian Walker, but also Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Josh Bell, Carlos Santana and Justin Turner.

Right, but if those teams lose those guys they will need to replace them.

I had been thinking Hoskins straight up for Montgomery if the D-Backs lose Walker.  Salaries are almost identical.  Montgomery had the worse 2024, but better 2023 and 2022.  With the trade for Cortes, that probably won't happen. 

[wallus]

Sure, Hoskins doesn't have a great contract but it's pretty much one year so in no way should we be sending money and/or prospects to get rid of it. I expect a bounce back season from him and we really need his power in the lineup.

If Rosenthal is correct and our plan is Dunn/Durbin at 3rd (sigh), then we still need to find power somewhere else that can be in the lineup. Another thing would be trading Payamps as we could be fine without him.

[edfunderburk]

24 minutes ago, wallus said:

… we still need to find power somewhere else that can be in the lineup

Chourio will likely hit more HRs & we hope to have a healthy Yelich too

[wallus]

3 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

Chourio will likely hit more HRs & we hope to have a healthy Yelich too

Willy gave us 32 home runs. I would think a Dunn/Durbin pairing would get us 10 at most.

[MNBrew]

4 hours ago, wallus said:

Sure, Hoskins doesn't have a great contract but it's pretty much one year so in no way should we be sending money and/or prospects to get rid of it. I expect a bounce back season from him and we really need his power in the lineup.

If Rosenthal is correct and our plan is Dunn/Durbin at 3rd (sigh), then we still need to find power somewhere else that can be in the lineup. Another thing would be trading Payamps as we could be fine without him.

We're still closer to the final out of the 2024 World Series than the start of 2025 spring training workouts.  There's a lot of offseason to go.  I wouldn't be writing Dunn/Durbin into the starting lineup let alone the opening day roster just yet

[wallus]

22 minutes ago, MNBrew said:

We're still closer to the final out of the 2024 World Series than the start of 2025 spring training workouts.  There's a lot of offseason to go.  I wouldn't be writing Dunn/Durbin into the starting lineup let alone the opening day roster just yet

Rosenthal's comment, not mine....

[MNBrew]

2 hours ago, wallus said:

Rosenthal's comment, not mine....

Right.  You happened to elaborate on his premise.  I'm just saying I think it's way to early to assume anything.

To your point on more power, I tend to agree, and I'd think any addition that addresses that is likely to be at a corner IF spot or DH.  Thankfully, Gary Sanchez & his 9 HRs cannot be that guy this year (not that he really ever was that guy last year; they just signed him thinking he'd be).

[Thurston Fluff]

On 12/15/2024 at 12:38 PM, Frisbee Slider said:

Would someone claim him off waivers? I assume so?

Interesting way to free up money. Maybe poor form and Hoskins will almost certainly improve during a contract year.

Give him away as in trade him for a bag of balls. If the other team wants a couple million as well so be it. Not my preferred outcome but if it's either do that to free up some money to spend in a position of greater need or keep him and hope it all works out I'll go with the former. What I don't want is for the team to chase it's loses. Accept it didn't work out and salvage what you can to field the best team possible. That all assumes that they think keeping him isn't the best option moving forward.

[umphrey]

As a fan with no financial interest, I’ll be a little mad if they salary dump Hoskins. They definitely won’t go out and replace him with Pete Alonso or anything. Best case would be a Josh Bell type player, worst case they include prospects instead of money, bring back a replacement grade 1B and make some statement like “this frees up money for in season trades”. 

[Playing Catch]

At the risk of sounding like I'm talking myself into thinking this was a good trade...

Well, I guess that's exactly what I'm doing. But anyhoo, I'm beginning to buy Durbin as an above-average everyday IFer. Not necessarily in his rookie year, but after a year or two, I can imagine him slashing .270/.380/.430 .

That's a pretty good player.

He has hit at every level of his minor league career, which basically consisted of three seasons, not including his 17 game stint in rookie ball his draft year.

2022 - 116 wRC+ in 333 A-ball plate appearances
2023 - 151 wRC+ in 124 A+ plate appearances, promoted to AA - 122 wRC+ in 194 double-A plate appearances
2024 - debuts in AAA, finishing season with 129 wRC+ in 375 PAs, before lighting up the AFL

I mean, that's really consistent. It's actually kind of a similar statistical profile as Tyler Black. Durbin has a clear edge with the glove, Black has more power, and is a lefty hitter. But they have similar speed and similar on-base profiles.

[Soupy]

So is it time for the Brewers consider changing their practice of trading veterans with one year of control left to trading them with two years of control. Burnes for Ortiz and Hall. Ortiz is solid defensively but a questionable contributor at the plate. No idea on Hall. Williams for Durbin and Cortez. One hurt one in the minors. Would we get a better quality return for that extra year? Enough to offset missing out on Burnes/Williams/next guy for another year? 

[torts]

Don't fix what ain't broke

[Frisbee Slider]

Injuries happen.

DL Hall was effective in his 26.2 IP after the break last year, 3.38 ERA and 10.5 K/9 IP.

Durbin has nearly .900 OPS in Nashville, so far. 
Ortiz was nearly a 3 WAR player last year. He has had a bad 43 plate appearances this year. If he gets 600 PA, this bad stretch would be 7% of his season.

If healthy, I bet Cortes has more WAR than Williams this year. It’s not like Williams was always healthy as a Brewer either.

Burnes and Williams were never going to help Milwaukee beyond their initial team control. We now have multiple players who will make meaningful contributions for several years.

 

[jay87shot]

10 hours ago, Soupy said:

So is it time for the Brewers consider changing their practice of trading veterans with one year of control left to trading them with two years of control. Burnes for Ortiz and Hall. Ortiz is solid defensively but a questionable contributor at the plate. No idea on Hall. Williams for Durbin and Cortez. One hurt one in the minors. Would we get a better quality return for that extra year? Enough to offset missing out on Burnes/Williams/next guy for another year? 

The O's got 3.5 WAR from Corbin last year, Ortiz was 2.7. If Ortiz ends up not improving and just stays the same we win that trade in 2 years. Don't forget about Blake Burke's upside and the money we saved that was likely used in part to get Hoskins (not that he has done much).

Devin is going to be worth 2-3 WAR if he pitches like he has. Nestor will likely be worth somewhere in that neighborhood if healthy. My guess is that we see Durbin up in a month or so, if he shows anything solid we win that trade. If he hits some this year at 3B, I kind of like trying Ortiz at 3B, Turang at SS, and Durbin at 2B for 2026 (depending on Pratt timetable). For now the if's of Durbin aren't quite worth moving Turang off 2B. Sure this one can be iffy but Devin has his own health concerns and last year our pen should that it can be elite without him.

Look at what we did with Hader, his 2.5 WAR with SDP was turned into Contreras, Gasser, and Payamps. Payamps alone has been worth 2.7 WAR the past 2 years. 

I Freddy pitches well I would think we should get more of a Corbin than Devin return. If the offers are poor keep him and take the comp. pick. If Quero plays well this year I would listen to offers next offseason for him but unless someone gives us a near Soto-like return (nats to SDP) I would probably wait a year on him as well.

 

[CheezWizHed]

15 hours ago, Soupy said:

So is it time for the Brewers consider changing their practice of trading veterans with one year of control left to trading them with two years of control. Burnes for Ortiz and Hall. Ortiz is solid defensively but a questionable contributor at the plate. No idea on Hall. Williams for Durbin and Cortez. One hurt one in the minors. Would we get a better quality return for that extra year? Enough to offset missing out on Burnes/Williams/next guy for another year? 

Sure we could.  But why stop there? The return will be better if we trade them away with 3 years remaining!

I think the problem with your complaint is that we traded a high WAR person with 1 of year control for multiple lower WAR (for now) players with multiple years of control (well, except Nestor).  The Brewers are playing the "long game" whereas the team trading for Burnes or Williams are going for the "now" return.  

Quinn Priester trade was the opposite - we got the guy that is MLB ready now. He is guaranteed to have more MLB impact than Yophery, the draft pick, or the PTBNL. 

Adames was a case where we felt having him for 2024 plus the draft pick comp was more than we would've gotten in a trade. 

It just depends on what your goal for the trade would be. 

[umphrey]

The market corrected. Teams don't give up future all stars for 1 year of control anymore. Teams like the Brewers have to try to get a return that can fill 2-3 holes with decent players on a cheap salary, and find their all stars other ways.