Rule 5 to CWS - Shane Smith Discussion Thread

[jesusoftheapes]

Watching the White Sox(yup I do that) just the other day I watched one of my favorite 2024 pitchers of the minor leagues strike out 5 Dodgers from their starting lineup,walk 0 and look like a sure thing as a Starting Pitcher in this MLB.    I also watch Connor Thomas once again look like a Nashville relief pitcher who probably should not take up a 40 man roster spot let alone a 26 man spot over better pitchers in this system. 

I do not get it. I just don't.     Shane Smith ended 2024 as one of the Sounds best starting arms.  Hitting sub 2 ERA in 2023 and a respectable 3.05 ERA in 2024 he looked ready to go to this guy.     In 24'  He struck out 114 in  94 innings pitched last season and only gave up 6 home runs .   Walked 29 of his 94 AB which was the big sticking point they used against him.   Are  we  way to caught up on these Walks for many young pitchers on the cusp of MLB action?    Randy Johnson walked people for a half a decade before he grew up and stopped walking those batters and I believe letting some of these high walk youngsters pitch despite that would make for more success stories in pitching in modernity.        I get that Shanes 30% walk rate last season was unacceptable.   Walks lose games and we all know that.   However pitching under MLB is not pitching in MLB and sometimes when you let a pitcher work through walks they come out much better because of it and that is a ideology of coaching lost on 2025 pitching coaches.     Randy Johnson walked a lot of batters but was still considered the most terrifying pitcher for batters to face at that time.  Johnson was allowed to pitch and get himself and his team out of trouble and he eventually became a pitcher who walked very few through the last 3/4 of his long career.     I think Shane Smith is not going to walk batters at a 30% clip and I do not believe the White Sox believe this about him now either.    

Is Connor Thomas better than Shane Smith?  Thomas had a sub 2 ERA in 2024 in AAA.   As a reliever he Walked people almost to an identical clip as

Smith did with about the same number of innings pitched.   Shane pitched 94 innings and walked 29 while Thomas pitched 90 innings and walked 24.     So the difference is minimal and after you see them side by side Walks can no longer be the reason for the swap.   Shane Smith is about to Start the 2025 season in a MLB rotation.   Connor Thomas looks like we should send him back to St Louis and not screw around trying to see if his round peg fits our square .      Time will tell if I am right but GO BREWERS! 

[Frisbee Slider]

Let’s try to not get this thread locked 🙂

The Brewers will be ok. If Shane Smith is more than 1.5 WAR in 2025 it will be disappointing but not emotionally devastating.

I will take the under on 1.5 WAR for Shane.

[Frisbee Slider]

I appreciate the positive ending of Go Brewers!

[Jopal78]

Smith is currently walking 4.5 batters per 9 in Spring Training. At that rate he probably comes back to the Brewers. 

[CheezWizHed]

I would wager that the Brewers were hoping Smith would slip through the draft and when he didn't, they picked the best option they could to replace him. 

I'd guess he has a good chance at sticking with the CHISOX because their team was bad last year, but I'm not sure why ST results are anything to go by? 

[wallus]

I hope Smith is returned but I don't know why the Sox would do that. They won't be going anywhere for this season, even in a bad division.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, wallus said:

I hope Smith is returned but I don't know why the Sox would do that. They won't be going anywhere for this season, even in a bad division.

I would assume some degree of competition still matters.  They can only roster 26 players at a time and injury and performance always factor into who those 26 players will be unless competition is wholly irrelevant. 

[BrewerFan]

52 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I would assume some degree of competition still matters.  They can only roster 26 players at a time and injury and performance always factor into who those 26 players will be unless competition is wholly irrelevant. 

Sure, but they were historically bad, they only got worse(and younger). There are enough ways to play around with the DL to be able to roster him for the year if they see anything there.

Their degree of competition is likely trying to win 70 games but primarily trying to develop young talent.

[Ro Mueller]

I agree that we pivoted to select Thomas after misreading the market on Smith’s value and losing him.

And yes, now I want Thomas to become a 15-year super swingman or lefty silencer while Smith becomes a relatively ordinary 10-year MLB reliever.

I hope we don’t end up with the worst of all worlds, where Thomas costs us some wins in 2025 and ultimately gets returned, while Smith has a sterling career with several All Star appearances.

We obviously wouldn’t have expected to use Smith much in MLB in 2025 (if we’d selected him), so I won’t judge his 2025 MLB season as very meaningful. It’s more about whether he has a successful multi-season MLB career.

[Outlander]

I would put the chances of Smith ever coming back to the Brewers as very low. If the White Sox get rid of him another bad team will take him, it's not like he is just offered back to the Brewers, every team has a chance at him before the Brewers. He is lost, move on.

[ghostdrew]

8 minutes ago, Outlander said:

I would put the chances of Smith ever coming back to the Brewers as very low. If the White Sox get rid of him another bad team will take him, it's not like he is just offered back to the Brewers, every team has a chance at him before the Brewers. He is lost, move on.

Not true he must be offered back to the brewers .No other team can get him unless we release him.

[TURBO]

This topic has been covered in at least two other threads.

I feel it was a mistake to let him go, but time will tell.  It just made no sense at the time.

[Team Canada]

1 hour ago, ghostdrew said:

Not true he must be offered back to the brewers .No other team can get him unless we release him.

That's incorrect. From wikipedia: "The selecting team may, at any time, waive the Rule 5 draftee. If a Rule 5 draftee clears waivers by not signing with a new MLB team, he must be offered back to the original team."

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Team Canada said:

That's incorrect. From wikipedia: "The selecting team may, at any time, waive the Rule 5 draftee. If a Rule 5 draftee clears waivers by not signing with a new MLB team, he must be offered back to the original team."

You’re correct but I think it needs to be said if he’s doing so poorly that the White Sox want to return him then nobody else in the league is going to claim him. 

I think it’s pretty unlikely he gets returned. The White Sox have no intentions of being remotely good this year so even if he struggles they will keep him around. Only scenario I can see him returned is if he’s rocking like a 7+ ERA just getting shelled every time he’s out there.

[sveumrules]

17 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Smith is currently walking 4.5 batters per 9 in Spring Training. At that rate he probably comes back to the Brewers. 

Last year’s White Sox had a 4.1 BB9.

Take the since departed Garrett Crochet (146 IP of 2.0 BB9) and Erick Fedde (131 IP of 2.5 BB9) out of the mix and the rest of their staff had a 4.4 BB9.

[Lathund]

I don't really agree with the take that the Brewers didn't expect Smith to be taken. Everyone expected that he would be, and if we know it the Brewers know it. I also don't think taking Connor Thomas was a reacting to losing Smith, if they were taking him they were doing it regardless. Brewers clearly didn't consider Smith worth adding to the 40-man, and they clearly liked Thomas. What did they see in them that made them take those views? I don't know, and time will tell if they were right.

Some epculation on why though; It's interesting to note that some projection systems quite like Thomas; Steamer projecting a 3.86 ERA, The BAT 3.59. They're normally quite low on rookies. So perhaps the Brewers internal projections are similar, and combine that with an undercoached player (Thomas himself has already been quite critical of the Cardinals pitching development) that they saw potential in, and perhaps it starts to make sense. 

Also starting the post off with spring training arguments, something to add to that would be Connor Thomas 1.42 ERA so far, and Shane Smith's 5.40 ERA. Now ST ERA is quite pointless, and their FIP/xFIP are almost identical; either way though, nothing about ST so far suggests one is a "sure thing" as a MLB SP and the other one a AAA reliever unworthy of a 40-man spot. 

[umphrey]

I'll go on record and say I think it was a mistake. Looking forward to bumping this thread in 8 months when we might have the answer (he could be a 2-3 year project though).

[patrickgpe]

18 hours ago, wallus said:

I hope Smith is returned but I don't know why the Sox would do that. They won't be going anywhere for this season, even in a bad division.

Yes, no different that the brewers keeping wang when he had no business on a 25 man roster 

[Ro Mueller]

If there’s a thread to belabor the point, I guess this is it.

My guess is the Brewers see Smith as a swingman (like Junis, whose signing we likely regret; and Bryse Wilson / Elvin Rodriguez, who are cheap and walk fewer batters), which they simply value less than starters and relievers.

If Smith ends up being a star (unlikely, I admit - baseball is tough!), we could look back on this as a mis-reading of positional value in a similar manner as Paul Molitor (just a DH) and Casey Hayward (just a slot corner).

With that framing, it would mean they placed Smith:

- behind 3+ pitch starters like CF-Rod and Patrick (regretting having believed in Ethan Small once);

- behind super-special relievers like Uribe and (expected) Yoho (regretting having protected Cam Robinson once);

- behind a less walk-prone swingman like Elvin Rodriguez.

My beef on this is simply that I think we were better off trading Smith like we did Justin Topa (even though his return was admittedly low) -> something in return being better than nothing.

[patrickgpe]

Honestly how often does a rule V guy make an impact. You can't let spring stats dictate much. Yes he pitched good in double A as a 24 year old. the bigs are a different story. Maybe @jesusoftheapes will be right, but what is his ceiling, middle relief or back end of the rotation?

[SF70]

On 3/12/2025 at 6:05 PM, Jopal78 said:

Smith is currently walking 4.5 batters per 9 in Spring Training. At that rate he probably comes back to the Brewers. 

3 BB in 6.2 IP with only 2 hits allowed and 9 K’s. 98-100mph, and made Ohtani-Betts-Freeman look silly.

By the way he only walked 2.8/9 the entirety of last season and 3.2/9 in 2023. Command & control hasn’t been an issue.

His velo has ticked up and has completely changed his future outlook.

[Joseph Zarr]

I should preface this by saying: 

I have zero thoughts and feelings about Connor Thomas as it pertains to Shane Smith. I'm glad Thomas has had a successful ST to date. I hope it works out beyond our wildest dreams with the Brewers. I'm also beyond excited for Shane Smith's opportunity and I hope he runs with it and never looks back. He deserves it. I also know the Brewers as an organization will move forward regardless and be fine and continue winning on the margins like they've done for some time now.

AND...

Regardless of what happens with Smith in 2025, the developments so rapidly achieved in one off-season speak to what anyone who watches the vast majority of his Minor League games (like I did) might be thinking: he has the size, the frame, the competitive nature, the make-up, the arm action, and the willingness to expand his evolving and already zesty tool kit (See adding slider after a single 2023 AFL stint // See capably stepping into starter innings with a beleaguered Biloxi staff // See capably closing games // See capably Holding games) to really make a serious go of it in the Big Leagues. 

He was already sitting 95 mph before re-committing to his heater profile this off-season (as I've said in other threads I reached out to his training facility and outfit to ask about some things). He already had well over a plus 1 K/ IP as young 24-year-old (soon to be 25 yo) arm. 

I really don't care about anything other than what my eyes have told me for the past two some years (including his interviews): it was a mistake to leave him unprotected. It just was. I had automatically pegged all three of Smith; Henderson; and Patrick as Rule 5 Adds and I could have easily have made a case at the time Smith was the first add. 

This isn't the first mistake the Brewers have made on the pitching side of things. It won't be the last. And, we all know when you are juggling a 165 stateside limit and a 40-Man roster these players falling through the cracks inevitably happens. I think every team goes through this. But, man, this one was such a blatantly obvious 40-Man add to me it still stings from the old school scout that lives in me.

I literally find myself like a cantankerous radiator hose popping off randomly during the week about this (which is hilarious in and of itself). When you watch as much Minor League baseball as I do, you tend to learn over time when something pops - what players simply look the part and innately differentiate themselves. Shane Smith's stuff definitely popped and it definitely pops. In the very least it was blatantly obvious the Brewers had a set-up man. A really good set-up man. That was legitimately his lowest floor. His versatility given the year-to-year importance of the pitching staff just carried bountifully more weight to me than a utility positional player on a 40-Man. 

I know Babe Capra is having an incredible spring and kudos to him for doing so - I hope he grabs a hold of that utility role and never looks back. It is known in these parts how much I've loved Isaac Collins over the past two seasons as a Brewer and how stoked I was he was called up and added to the 40-Man. I turned people's eyes to 'Mona' well before he was a call-up when he made my most underrated and unheralded list many years back. I was hyping Brewer Hicklen for months before he was even a call-up consideration. 

Why do I mention these players? I flat would have rostered Shane Smith with ease over all these talented young men (and this doesn't even get into rostering LHP Tyler Jay at that time - I believe I'm not mistaken here? - which is an entirely different box of rocks) because of the importance of what he brings and how he brings it and where he might be heading if the dice roll the right way. You just don't let that type of player walk risk-free to another organization. You just don't do it. And, well, if you can't tell I'm still just a little bit ticked off about it 😅.

Now, being the generally rational middle-aged man that I am, I would also like to leave room for the possibility there was an agreement between the player and the organization. Perhaps a difference of opinions of where they wanted to take Smith's career in the short-term. There is always the possibility the Brewers and Smith agreed to leave him unprotected so he could pursue an MLB path more aggressively if he were to be chosen. Is this likely? I really don't think so. Is this possible? Yes. And what better staff to go to than a staff with Walker McKinven as its bench coach. At least I can tell myself this fairy tale to make it all better. 

[Jopal78]

21 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Last year’s White Sox had a 4.1 BB9.

Take the since departed Garrett Crochet (146 IP of 2.0 BB9) and Erick Fedde (131 IP of 2.5 BB9) out of the mix and the rest of their staff had a 4.4 BB9.

What’s the point here? Yeah the Sox were bad last year. That certainly  doesn’t mean they will simply stick with poor performing players because they were bad last year. 
 

Moreover, walking 4.5 in Spring Training isn’t good. Presumably Smith’s  not out there disengaged from results while trying out new pitches; rather with a huge opportunity in front of him he’s trying to perform to make the team.

This has been beaten to death. The Brewers left an older minor league middle relief/swing man unprotected in the Rule 5 draft and he got selected.
 

If Smith put up his stat line across 25 starts in the minors; yeah I’d say performance in ‘25 is irrelevant and the Sox keep him at all costs. But a reliever? Even the lowly White Sox are a major league team and subject to anti-tanking measures, so Smith is gonna have to deliver to some extent or they’ll send him back. Simple as that. 

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Moreover, walking 4.5 in Spring Training isn’t good. 

Smith walked three guys in his first outing over 1.2 IP. He had a 16.21 BB9 after the game.

He has walked zero over five innings since then bringing his BB9 down to 4.05.

If he puts up 0 BB | 3 IP again like he did in his last outing he’d be down to a 2.79 BB9 this spring. 1 BB | 4 IP would make it 3.38.

These things change fast in small spring samples.

His BB9 throughout the minors was 3.0 and the projections have him down for a 3.3 BB9 in MLB for 2025.

[TURBO]

Latest News

Mar 11, 2025 11:32 AM EDT

Smith struck out five batters and walked none while allowing one hit over three innings in his Cactus League start against the Dodgers on Saturday.

Analysis

The first pick of the 2024 Rule 5 draft, Smith was left unprotected by Milwaukee but has impressed thus far in White Sox camp. The 24-year-old righty averaged 96.8 mph on his four-seam fastball (touching 98.4 mph) and threw the pitch 55 percent of the time Saturday. He mixed in his three secondary offerings, but it was Smith's fastball that shut down a stacked Dodgers lineup, including two Ks against Shohei Ohtani plus one apiece against Freddie Freeman and Will Smith. With Drew Thorpe (elbow) likely to open the year on the shelf, Smith could win the final spot in Chicago's rotation. He has certainly pitched well enough this spring (nine Ks, 0.75 WHIP in 6.2 innings) that the White Sox won't be returning Smith to the Brewers.