NL Central

[owbc]

12 minutes ago, umphrey said:

Are the cubs good again? They have a lot of regression candidates on that roster but I am sure Tucker will mash all year, PCA is a top prospect playing well and they are winning games. 

They are good but not going to run away with it. Top-3 offense with below-average pitching is a recipe for a mid-season slump. Tucker and Suzuki are legit, but beyond that? Carson Kelly has a 321 OPS+, Michael Busch is playing out of his mind, and PCA is having a breakout at age 23. 

CC doesn't have the Brewers' pitching lab feeding him more quality arms...the offense will regress to ~10th in MLB, the pitching will remain below average, and it will take somewhere in the 87-89 win range to finish ahead of them. 

[Kozlowski Klub]

 

1 hour ago, owbc said:

They are good but not going to run away with it. Top-3 offense with below-average pitching is a recipe for a mid-season slump. Tucker and Suzuki are legit, but beyond that? Carson Kelly has a 321 OPS+, Michael Busch is playing out of his mind, and PCA is having a breakout at age 23. 

CC doesn't have the Brewers' pitching lab feeding him more quality arms...the offense will regress to ~10th in MLB, the pitching will remain below average, and it will take somewhere in the 87-89 win range to finish ahead of them. 

Agree with this but I think it is extremely likely they add multiple arms at/before the deadline. The pressure to win is absolutely sky high and the upcoming Tucker decision is extremely important for their future. If they add multiple arms, I think they are safely the team to beat in the division. Don't think they will run away with anything but if the Cubs significantly add and the brewers don't I will be worried. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, umphrey said:

Are the cubs good again? They have a lot of regression candidates on that roster but I am sure Tucker will mash all year, PCA is a top prospect playing well and they are winning games. 

They don't have the pitching - but they'll score alot of runs, especially if the wind blows out of Wrigley more than it blows in....

If all goes right with them, they just might claw up over that 83 win total for a change...and they should considering their payroll is roughly $60M over the Cardinals and ~$75M over the rest of the teams that would be among the threats to win this division.  Pittsburgh just isn't there yet.

[markedman5]

They just keep on banging…….git down multiple runs twice tonight and immediately came back to take the lead.

Crow-Armstrong sure doesn’t look like the all field no hit guy that some seemed sure he was.

[Zad Fnark]

Dodgers' bullpen doesn't look real amazing right now.

[Underachiever]

14 hours ago, markedman5 said:

They just keep on banging…….git down multiple runs twice tonight and immediately came back to take the lead.

Crow-Armstrong sure doesn’t look like the all field no hit guy that some seemed sure he was.

Talk about a guy who is easy to hate.

[BruisedCrew]

The Cubs look pretty scary when you factor in the schedule they have played so far.

It isn’t even May yet and they have already completed their season series against the Dodgers, Padres, and Diamondbacks ,  three of the top teams in the NL. They have also played a series against the Rangers and play the Phillies this weekend.

to have the record they have against that schedule is pretty impressive.

[Jopal78]

On 4/22/2025 at 2:47 PM, Kozlowski Klub said:

 

Agree with this but I think it is extremely likely they add multiple arms at/before the deadline. The pressure to win is absolutely sky high and the upcoming Tucker decision is extremely important for their future. 

Their VP of Baseball Operations, Jed Hoyer, has his job on the line. His contract ends after 2025 and has had forgettable results since taking over after Theo (and previously in San Diego).

Counsell is likely safe no matter what due to the size of his contract, but  it’s never a good thing when the GM who brought you in is let go and you’re still there. 

There isn’t a “decision” with Kyle Tucker he will test free agency and would be a fool not to in a climate where the elite young players are getting half billion dollar guarantees. So there’s pressure for them to make sure it was worth acquiring him. Yes. 

 

 

[SF70]

Tucker, improved offense from their catching, and an apparent breakout offensively from PCA has made their offense a powerhouse in the early going.

Can they keep scoring 5.5 runs per game? Probably not, but even with a slight dip they should still score enough for them to win 90+ games.

 

[TURBO]

We can downplay the Cubs all we want, but it is looking more and more like they are the team to beat in the Central.  I don't like it, in fact I hate it, but it is what it is.

We didn't address our offense in the off season, and it may be too late at the deadline...

[Brewer77]

2 hours ago, TURBO said:

We can downplay the Cubs all we want, but it is looking more and more like they are the team to beat in the Central.  I don't like it, in fact I hate it, but it is what it is.

We didn't address our offense in the off season, and it may be too late at the deadline...

The Cubs have played great ball, but I don’t see a roster that the Brewers can’t match. It should be a good race all the way through September 

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, TURBO said:

We can downplay the Cubs all we want, but it is looking more and more like they are the team to beat in the Central.  I don't like it, in fact I hate it, but it is what it is.

We didn't address our offense in the off season, and it may be too late at the deadline...

The only real criticism of the Cubs is after Imanaga their rotation is ordinary and depth is thin. Do they have the horses in their system to be able to trade for different making starting picthers come July?

[Underachiever]

One thing the Dodgers have shown at the deadline is that if you are willing to take on salary, teams don’t ask for much in the way of prospects. So I don’t know what the Cubs would need to give up if they played that game

[owbc]

Don’t forget, the Cubs were also 17-10 last year. 

[brewers888]

It feels like this is going to be a lost season with the scrubs running away with the division and the Brewers not being in the wild card race.

[Team Canada]

On 4/26/2025 at 12:29 PM, brewers888 said:

It feels like this is going to be a lost season with the scrubs running away with the division and the Brewers not being in the wild card race.

That's an interesting opinion given they're 1.5 games up on the Reds. In April.

[Fear The Chorizo]

On 4/25/2025 at 1:16 PM, Jopal78 said:

The only real criticism of the Cubs is after Imanaga their rotation is ordinary and depth is thin. Do they have the horses in their system to be able to trade for different making starting picthers come July?

Yeah, they simply don't - their pitching as constructed is too thin to sustain a team that will be able to win 7 out of every 10 games, regardless of who they are playing.

The Cubs could opt to empty a decent farm system to bring in veteran arms and probably will need to at some point, but with how fast pitchers are dropping like flies with the Dodgers there's going to be other huge market teams driving the price of pitching up via trade, too.

One thing about their offensive barrage to start the season - Their early season schedule has been incredibly favorable towards games with good hitting conditions.  Most of their Wrigley home games in April have been good weather, most with wind howling out - which makes that park a bandbox.  And then playing most of April in CA or AZ also limits those 40 degree, misty nights where hitting is no fun.

The Brewers have uncharacteristically lost a handful of games they should have won with their own bullpen struggles here and there - that's magnified early in the season standings, because adding those ~3 games in the win column now would have the Brewers equal to the Cubs in 1st.  

 

 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't know if the Brewers will be very good this year, but I would think, I don't know why, that people would learn to calm down after so many years of this. It's APRIL. Even if it were June and we were 6GB, I'd be saying there's a lot of baseball left, but it's APRIL. It takes one stretch of going 8-2 for things to reshape.

[Playing Catch]

7 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I don't know if the Brewers will be very good this year, but I would think, I don't know why, that people would learn to calm down after so many years of this. It's APRIL. Even if it were June and we were 6GB, I'd be saying there's a lot of baseball left, but it's APRIL. It takes one stretch of going 8-2 for things to reshape.

Haha, yes. This is a good reminder!

It's still fun to speculate, though, as to how this season's race will shape up.

In recent seasons, I've felt pretty confident in the Brewers having winning, playoff-level baseball. That hasn't changed. I think the Brewers are good. My concern is that we see a National League that is just so tough at the top, that we see an outlier for most wins for a non-playoff team. I looked back over the last handful of seasons, and unless I missed something, the best record for a non-playoff team was the 2019 Cleveland team at 93 wins. Could a 95-win team miss the playoffs? My point is, the only avenue I see to the playoffs this season is a division title, because very few of us think the Brewers could get to 95.

[Jopal78]

The Cubs have played well in April for sure. But let’s not overlook that despite the calamitous defensive miscues and bullpen meltdowns, the Brewers head into a series against the 2nd worst team in baseball with a chance to finish April with a winning record. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

On 4/26/2025 at 12:29 PM, brewers888 said:

It feels like this is going to be a lost season with the scrubs running away with the division and the Brewers not being in the wild card race.

This post needs to be bookmarked. For posterity.

Also, given who posted it, it is likely pretty evergreen.

[shanedog19]

On 4/26/2025 at 12:29 PM, brewers888 said:

It feels like this is going to be a lost season with the scrubs running away with the division and the Brewers not being in the wild card race.

I'm not conceding this season yet. We still have Woodruff returning, and Misiorowski is starting to dominate AAA. Add those two to the rotation and add a third baseman at the deadline, and I'll take my chances with this team.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

5 hours ago, shanedog19 said:

I'm not conceding this season yet. We still have Woodruff returning, and Misiorowski is starting to dominate AAA. Add those two to the rotation and add a third baseman at the deadline, and I'll take my chances with this team.

It would be super weird to concede the season 3GB of 1st on April 30.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

55 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

It would be super weird to concede the season 3GB of 1st on April 30.

Aren't you the one who has already written off the Packers season before it's even started?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

4 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Aren't you the one who has already written off the Packers season before it's even started?

Nope. I'm the guy who said they're a top 10 team, not a Super Bowl team, and unlikely to win their stacked division. A couple of posters had their feelings hurt over this and made a strawman that this means they suck. 

I don't see the Brewers as a World Series team, but capable of a good season. Since the leagues are about as different as imaginably possible, the two teams really don't have the same metric for what's a good season nor should they have the same expectations for what's reasonable.

But why don't we not discuss the Packers in a thread called NL Central, and leave this thinly veiled goading crap out of it?