Brewers Trade Aaron Civale To White Sox For Andrew Vaughn

[igor67]

Focusing on on the Home game effect since with the current schedule I think road park effects aren't a big deal, I am estimating that switch parks would put him in the 25-30 HR season group. So that is a noticeable improvement.

[CheezWizHed]

Civale did a solid by throwing 5 shutout innings against the Cubs, but CWS ended up losing anyway. 😞

[brewcrewdue80]

I have poor memory these days so it was a lot of shifting from BF to BS back to BF.  I lose out on what I mean to write, edit multiple times, and have a confusing post.

XHRs is expected HRs at a different park had he played his games there.  I like looking at them because some players will have a 20 HR season but I compare to Milw and it would only be 15 or 16.  Vaughn's in this instance was 25 more. I haven't seen that kind of positive discrepancy.   HR here vs a warning track out?  That could add 20 some pts to his BA, OB, and slg even more.  

[Brewluver]

Vaughn was never advertised as a Power Hitter.

[brewcrewdue80]

1 hour ago, Brewluver said:

Vaughn was never advertised as a Power Hitter.

he projects as a .300 hitter with 30 homers and 80 walks on an annual basis.

 

Mlb prospectus quote of 2020 top 30 Chw (#2).  Lost season. 2021 (#1) it's said again .330/30hrs with a healthy amount of walks. He graduated off lists that season, not on 2022 rankings.

 

That's a mention of above average power.

[Team Canada]

Vaughn's WAR with Chicago (610 games): -0.5
Vaughn's WAR with Milwaukee (14 games): 0.6

[JCREW]

1 hour ago, Team Canada said:

Vaughn's WAR with Chicago (610 games): -0.5
Vaughn's WAR with Milwaukee (14 games): 0.6

If it weren't for Shane Smith (vomits, then weeps), I would say that CHW's player development team needs to be voted off the island by the owners and the players' union. They seem to be bad for most baseball players.

[SeaBass]

37 minutes ago, JCREW said:

If it weren't for Shane Smith (vomits, then weeps), I would say that CHW's player development team needs to be voted off the island by the owners and the players' union. They seem to be bad for most baseball players.

Jerry Reinsdorf is still the owner there. It's what the Brewers would look like if the Seligs still owned the team (Bud and Jerry were/are good friends), except probably worse since Reinsdorf does still have Chicago's market going for him.

[Frisbee Slider]

1 hour ago, JCREW said:

If it weren't for Shane Smith (vomits, then weeps), I would say that CHW's player development team needs to be voted off the island

It should be noted that Shane has a 4.26 ERA and 0.6 WAR. 1.30 WHIP. 97 ERA+ and 4.20 FIP

All that to say, I’m not sure Shane Smith meaningfully improves our rotation or even bullpen with those numbers. Better than Colin Rea but not that much better.

Yes, five more years of cost control and possible improvements, too. (Smith)

 

[markedman5]

On 6/13/2025 at 9:36 AM, endaround said:

I too was not expecting a 1B who hits like Ortiz.  Nothing would have been better.

Ah yes………never gets old…….

[Frisbee Slider]

2 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

Ah yes………never gets old…….

David Ortiz

[Jimbo]

With his ground rule double Sunday, Vaughn has what I call four "big hits" on the season already, what I arbitrarily call a PA that moves the win probably twenty points or more.  I've been tracking this for a few years now.

 

Chourio        7 big hits
Vaughn        4 big hits
Durbin          4 big hits, 1 bad hit, 1 bad run
Frelick          3 big hits
Turang         3 big hits, 1 bad hit
Collins          2 big hits
Contreras     2 big hits, 1 bad hit
Hoskins        2 big hits
Yelich           2 big hits
Bauers         1 big hit
Ortiz             1 big hit
Capra           0 big hits, 1 bad hit
 

[JCREW]

52 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

With his ground rule double Sunday, Vaughn has what I call four "big hits" on the season already, what I arbitrarily call a PA that moves the win probably twenty points or more.  I've been tracking this for a few years now.

 

Chourio        7 big hits
Vaughn        4 big hits
Durbin          4 big hits, 1 bad hit, 1 bad run

Do the bad hits/runs move the WPA by negative 20 points or more?

[JCREW]

56 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

With his ground rule double Sunday, Vaughn has what I call four "big hits" on the season already, what I arbitrarily call a PA that moves the win probably twenty points or more.  I've been tracking this for a few years now.

Vaughn and Chourio are two of the top three in WPA since July 1

[JCREW]

1 hour ago, Frisbee Slider said:

It should be noted that Shane has a 4.26 ERA and 0.6 WAR. 1.30 WHIP. 97 ERA+ and 4.20 FIP

All that to say, I’m not sure Shane Smith meaningfully improves our rotation or even bullpen with those numbers. Better than Colin Rea but not that much better.

Yes, five more years of cost control and possible improvements, too. (Smith)

 

Yeah, I noticed the regression. Still was puzzling.

My current best outcome for Shane Smith is to

- win the Cy Young 3 years in a row

- have the Cubs mortgage the farm system to trade for him

- sign a $1Billion extension with the Cubs

- start being a bad pitcher

- walk off into the sunset with all the Cubs' money, hopes, and dreams.

[Jimbo]

28 minutes ago, JCREW said:

Do the bad hits/runs move the WPA by negative 20 points or more?

Correct.

4/25/2025	STL	-0.237	Capra	GIDP in 9th
5/24/2025	PIT	-0.284	Turang	GIDP to end game
6/23/2025	PIT	-0.222	Durbin	CS in the 9th
7/13/2025	WSH	-0.240	Contreras	GIDP to end 8th
7/27/2025	FLA	-0.207	Durbin	GIDP to end 6th

[LouisEly]

Thank you, Aaron Civale

[Austin Tatious]

Vaughn is looking like a long term piece.  Looking like a good mutual fit.  

[Samurai Bucky]

40 minutes ago, Austin Tatious said:

Vaughn is looking like a long term piece.  Looking like a good mutual fit.  

<thread hijack>
... so is Priester 😉
</thread hijack>

[liveforoctober]

Just as we all suspected, this is turning into an easy contract tender decision for Vaughn and we will have a 'cheap' first baseman next year. 

[ClosetBrewerFan]

This trade for Vaughn was such a no brainer.  I dont know why so many of you were upset with it.

[brewcrewdue80]

Albeit it's backwards but spin it in your head here's the pitch to Vaughn.   And Cubs fan reaction.

 

 

[CheezWizHed]

7 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Albeit it's backwards but spin it in your head here's the pitch to Vaughn.   And Cubs fan reaction.

 

 

Oddly, this is the Vaughn that still comes into my head when I hear Andrew being called to that plate...and not Greg. 

I have to admit that I'm tempering my long term hopes on what Vaughn can become.   This trade has been amazing, but I keep hoping he doesn't turn into a pumpkin at some point.

[Frisbee Slider]

25 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

This trade has been amazing, but I keep hoping he doesn't turn into a pumpkin at some point.

I think Vaughn has enough former prospect pedigree to likely out perform Rhys Hoskins through the 2026 season.

[RWeeksFan23]

At this point I hope Rhys Hoskins doesn't get his job back...