Brewers Trade Aaron Civale To White Sox For Andrew Vaughn

[Brian]

On 6/13/2025 at 9:36 AM, endaround said:

I too was not expecting a 1B who hits like Ortiz.  Nothing would have been better.

Honestly just giving players away, I'm starting to think Murphy is hard to get along with and has a massive EGO. 

[nate82]

15 minutes ago, Brian said:

Honestly just giving players away, I'm starting to think Murphy is hard to get along with and has a massive EGO. 

I am not sure what you think Civale was worth but something is telling me it is not a reasonable valuation.

[Brian]

27 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I am not sure what you think Civale was worth but something is telling me it is not a reasonable valuation.

I guarantee you he is worth more than Andrew Vaughn but he will take Hoskins spot when we trade him later this season.

[nate82]

13 minutes ago, Brian said:

I guarantee you he is worth more than Andrew Vaughn but he will take Hoskins spot when we trade him later this season.

He was not and the Brewers having to include cash in the deal, proves he was not worth more than Vaughn.  

[Brian]

1 minute ago, nate82 said:

He was not and the Brewers having to include cash in the deal, proves he was not worth more than Vaughn.  

We will see, my thinking is he may take Ernesto Martinez job if we call him up because I'm pretty sure this is Hoskins last season here. Brewers may be just thinking ahead a year.

[Brian]

Aaron Civale has 13 earned runs with the white sox in a month. 

[Brian]

22 hours ago, JosephC said:

McCalvy's full article regarding the trade is up at the Brewer's website, and his wording has changed regardng the money part of the deal.  The article says, "The Brewers also sent cash to the White Sox to help offset the difference of salaries."  Including the word "help" leads me to believe the cash + salary swap in this deal was not equal and the Brewers did end up saving some money.

I agree 100%, also the Civale grumbling was turning Brewers locker room into a toxic environment and Brewers needed to put a quick end to it. 

[Lathund]

Civale was getting traded at the deadline regardless, unless the Brewers had an absolute ton of injuries. Peralta, Quintana, Patrick, Priester, Misiorowski, Henderson, Myers, C.Rodriguez, Hall, Ashby and eventually Woodruff, Cortes and Gasser. Civale is better than some of them, but equal or worse to more. He is on an expiring contract and so not part of the future, he isn't one of the best 5 options for the rotation currently. So he was getting traded anyway. Him asking for one just speeded things up. He doesn't have experience out of the bullpen, so might needed time to adjust. And he was very publicly unhappy about it, and unhappy humans tend to perform worse than happy, motivated ones. And sulking ones can affect those around him. 

Sadly, the obvious need to trade him probably reduced the potential (But already minor) return somewhat. As for the return: When people say "Surely they could have gotten more" for a trade, I'll usually point to the fact that they didn't, as a strong argument to support that they couldn't. But then there's the element of how you value the return, as it's not always obvious. I don't think a prospect trade would've netted anything other than a "PTBNL or cash" level "prospect". Now Brewers could do Brewers-y things and find a highly flawed pitcher but with some of the traits they really like, and try to work their magic. Low chance of success, but a lot of value if it hits. But they already have a very strong and deep farm system, so that level of prospect doesn't add much. 

So what's the thinking with Vaughn? He has been an average-ish bat prior to 2025, making him a roughly replacement level player with his (lack of) defense and positional versatility. 2025 has been worse, but his xwOBA is identical to the last 3 years, so he's probably still that average-ish hitter. $5m for that, when you already have Hoskins, isn't what they made this deal for. 

So you'd think they think they can get more out of him. The superficial arguments in favor of that would be that he was once a very highly ranked prospect for a reason, he was rushed to the majors and has spent his entire career in one of the most dysfunctional organizations in Baseball, under different managers and front offices. There are probably adjustments that haven't been made, tools and methods not used. On the flipside of that, there were also reports of a lack of work rate, more interest in golf than baseball etc. 

What do they see in him, then? I suspect it's something similar to Rowdy. In that he's someone who produces really good exit velocities, hard hit rates, barrel rates, and does so without striking out much. His major weakness has been chase rate (And, perhaps surprisingly, bat speed). If they think they can improve his chase rate, there's potential for improvement. 

To sum it up, I think the reasoning behind the trade is twofold. One, that there wasn't much value to be had in the first place and so the roster spot would be the main part of the return anyway. The second is that they'll take Vaughn, with his 3 options remaining, and put him in AAA unless Hoskins gets injured or traded. Most likely, he doesn't show enough to warrant tendering a contract. But in case he does, they'll then have two years (due to not reaching 5 years of service time this year) of team control on a RHH 1B to replace Rhys. Even as he is, his career wRC+ against LHP is 109. The other likely candidates to play 1B/DH next year as the roster stands (Martinez, Black, Yelich (DH)) are LHH. So if he finds even a small improvement, there is some kind of roster fit as the backup RHH power bat/PH.

But all that being said, it's a low-percentage play of finding a Rhys replacement (And, in the mean time, a RHH backup for him in case of injuries). I probably still would've gone with whatever pitching project prospect they could find, but I also really have no idea what those offers were like. 

In the end it's a trade that needed to happen in some fashion. And one that won't impact either organization in the long run. 

[SF70]

8 minutes ago, Lathund said:

Civale was getting traded at the deadline regardless, unless the Brewers had an absolute ton of injuries. Peralta, Quintana, Patrick, Priester, Misiorowski, Henderson, Myers, C.Rodriguez, Hall, Ashby and eventually Woodruff, Cortes and Gasser. Civale is better than some of them, but equal or worse to more. He is on an expiring contract and so not part of the future, he isn't one of the best 5 options for the rotation currently. So he was getting traded anyway. Him asking for one just speeded things up. He doesn't have experience out of the bullpen, so might needed time to adjust. And he was very publicly unhappy about it, and unhappy humans tend to perform worse than happy, motivated ones. And sulking ones can affect those around him. 

Sadly, the obvious need to trade him probably reduced the potential (But already minor) return somewhat. As for the return: When people say "Surely they could have gotten more" for a trade, I'll usually point to the fact that they didn't, as a strong argument to support that they couldn't. But then there's the element of how you value the return, as it's not always obvious. I don't think a prospect trade would've netted anything other than a "PTBNL or cash" level "prospect". Now Brewers could do Brewers-y things and find a highly flawed pitcher but with some of the traits they really like, and try to work their magic. Low chance of success, but a lot of value if it hits. But they already have a very strong and deep farm system, so that level of prospect doesn't add much. 

So what's the thinking with Vaughn? He has been an average-ish bat prior to 2025, making him a roughly replacement level player with his (lack of) defense and positional versatility. 2025 has been worse, but his xwOBA is identical to the last 3 years, so he's probably still that average-ish hitter. $5m for that, when you already have Hoskins, isn't what they made this deal for. 

So you'd think they think they can get more out of him. The superficial arguments in favor of that would be that he was once a very highly ranked prospect for a reason, he was rushed to the majors and has spent his entire career in one of the most dysfunctional organizations in Baseball, under different managers and front offices. There are probably adjustments that haven't been made, tools and methods not used. On the flipside of that, there were also reports of a lack of work rate, more interest in golf than baseball etc. 

What do they see in him, then? I suspect it's something similar to Rowdy. In that he's someone who produces really good exit velocities, hard hit rates, barrel rates, and does so without striking out much. His major weakness has been chase rate (And, perhaps surprisingly, bat speed). If they think they can improve his chase rate, there's potential for improvement. 

To sum it up, I think the reasoning behind the trade is twofold. One, that there wasn't much value to be had in the first place and so the roster spot would be the main part of the return anyway. The second is that they'll take Vaughn, with his 3 options remaining, and put him in AAA unless Hoskins gets injured or traded. Most likely, he doesn't show enough to warrant tendering a contract. But in case he does, they'll then have two years (due to not reaching 5 years of service time this year) of team control on a RHH 1B to replace Rhys. Even as he is, his career wRC+ against LHP is 109. The other likely candidates to play 1B/DH next year as the roster stands (Martinez, Black, Yelich (DH)) are LHH. So if he finds even a small improvement, there is some kind of roster fit. 

But all that being said, it's a low-percentage play of finding a Rhys replacement (And, in the mean time, a RHH backup for him in case of injuries). I probably still would've gone with whatever pitching project prospect they could find, but I also really have no idea what those offers were like. 

In the end it's a trade that needed to happen in some fashion. And one that won't impact either organization in the long run. 

Outstanding analysis and one I agree with.

Civale wasn’t returning anything meaningful for a team with maybe the deepest farm system in the game, so why not add big-league depth at 1B to protect from injury and possible trades of Bauer and or Hoskins at the trade-deadline.

 

[brewcrewdue80]

It's kinda nuts to me that Vaughn was valued at 5.85m in arbitration considering his total production after 4 seasons. Have players ever had a reduced arb year without being non tendered?

[Lathund]

49 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

It's kinda nuts to me that Vaughn was valued at 5.85m in arbitration considering his total production after 4 seasons. Have players ever had a reduced arb year without being non tendered?

I don't believe it can be reduced. Surprised it's that high too, despite knowing how things like playing time, RBIs, and HRs count. 

[LouisEly]

52 minutes ago, Lathund said:

I don't believe it can be reduced. Surprised it's that high too, despite knowing how things like playing time, RBIs, and HRs count. 

I believe the minimum that a team can offer is 80% of the prior year's salary, so I think technically it can be reduced.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/contract-renewal

[markedman5]

 

[Turning2]

1 hour ago, markedman5 said:

 

Well there you have it… the Brewers clearly robbed the White Sox in this deal 😀

[MilwaukeeBeers]

The talent is obviously there. He is a power threat every AB. He needs to cut down the Ks. But that clip showed why you take a chance. That's a tough pitch to get the barrel to. Will he be non tendered? Most likely but maybe they can unlock something but solid depth especially if Rhys gets hurt or traded, 

[Jopal78]

On 6/15/2025 at 4:48 PM, LouisEly said:

I believe the minimum that a team can offer is 80% of the prior year's salary, so I think technically it can be reduced.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/contract-renewal

That’s exactly what will happen too. They’ll tender him a contract at $4.2 million for 2026 and in essence dare him to go to arbitration, and unless Vaughn is a knucklehead he’d likely take the sure thing instead of going to hearing arguing he deserves a raise after spending most the year in AAA. 

With Hoskins almost certainly playing elsewhere in 2026, the Brewers wouldn’t find a free agent first baseman with upside for less. 

[umphrey]

I am wondering what his FA contract would be, I think less than $4M even considering some perceived upside (which is debatable considering the very large sample size we have seen now). Moniak got 1 year $1.2M and he can play some defense and had a 1.8 win season. 

[liveforoctober]

SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT

First 4 games in Nashville are complete for Vaughn.

5-17 at the plate with 4 XBH (2 2B, 1 3B (!) and 1 HR)

.313/.353/.750

[umphrey]

It's weird how he has no MiLB stats to compare against. Just 245 PAs in single A in 2019 and nothing else significant. 

[Outlander]

6 million is way too much for an guy like Vaughn but not exactly a ton of options there for the Brewers in 2026. Maybe they roll with Vaughn/Martinez.

[folly412]

Ideally Adams is ready for 2026 and we save the money.

[liveforoctober]

Small sample size alert!

Vaughn through 10 games is slashing

.256/.341/.590/.931

His .931 OPS currently leads the team*. I do think there exists a world where Vaughn for Mona/Siegler is the power bench bat we end up "acquiring" for the stretch run..

[bensheeps]

3 hours ago, liveforoctober said:

Small sample size alert!

Vaughn through 10 games is slashing

.256/.341/.590/.931

His .931 OPS currently leads the team*. I do think there exists a world where Vaughn for Mona/Siegler is the power bench bat we end up "acquiring" for the stretch run..

While I agree with you that this might be "the move", why not Bobby Dalbec instead?  .288/.371/.534/.905 with the added flexibility to play 3B along with 1B and corner OF.

[Brian]

4 hours ago, liveforoctober said:

Small sample size alert!

Vaughn through 10 games is slashing

.256/.341/.590/.931

His .931 OPS currently leads the team*. I do think there exists a world where Vaughn for Mona/Siegler is the power bench bat we end up "acquiring" for the stretch run..

While Vaughn has a .931 OPS in 39 at-bats as a member of the Sounds.  Maybe he can be the next Keston Hiura. Hope I'm wrong. 

[liveforoctober]

1 hour ago, bensheeps said:

While I agree with you that this might be "the move", why not Bobby Dalbec instead?  .288/.371/.534/.905 with the added flexibility to play 3B along with 1B and corner OF.

Yep, I wouldn't have an issue with either if it is between those two. I just am merely pointing out Vaughn has been good since getting here and if he were to get brought up there is merit. 

Dalbec would likely replace Vaughn on the 40 man if he were the pick, as I'm assuming we wouldn't carry both guys.