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Posted

Honest question - and this is going to seem a bit superficial compared to the experts around here, There's a lot of factors to consider, mostly coming down to the tension between going for it this season and positioning for the longer term. People here know more than me about contract situations, so I've largely left that out.

I would think the top of our wish list would be a corner infielder with power. Who is a target that fits that bill from a non-contender (or from a contender that has depth at the position)? I'm not a big fan of McMahon as a difference-maker

As far as assets, we have starting pitcher depth. which I assume is a valuable thing. Non-contenders will probably prefer the young guns, whereas contenders would prefer the proven commodities. While we like all of them, we have too many of them for them all to contribute to the major league team right now.

  • Woodruff and Peralta - as a fan, I prefer they keep these guys to win this year. On the flip side, we won't be able to afford them long term (am I right about that?). So, it's a trade-off between whether you think getting something for them now is worth more or less than increasing the chances of winning this season. You can reasonably take a chance with the remaining starters, but none of them have comparable track records. That's why GMs get the big bucks.
  • Cortes and Quintana - more veteran than the others and would only probably go to contenders (and more likely Quintana, I would think).
  • The youngsters are in no particular order: Miz, Patrick, Priester, Henderson, & Myers. I'd hate to really lose any of them, because that could be a solid rotation - and a couple of those won't be put on the table - but you gotta give to get.
  • Then there are wild cards like Ashby and Hall. Not sure what the plan is with them - they could start for a lot of teams. Probably not as valuable in a trade as they are in the Brewers bullpen for the immediate future. 

Thoughts?

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Posted
8 minutes ago, formerlybis said:

I would think the top of our wish list would be a corner infielder with power.

Not many 3B outperforming Durbin the past month. 

I can’t imagine Milwaukee benching Hoskins after he returns next month. 

Posted

My instinct is they should do nothing because they need more than 1 big bat. It would probably cost far too much in prospect capital to acquire 2 big bats. Although we have a surplus of the very valuable commodity - starting pitching, there doesn't appear to be a good fit for a trade partner that has what MIL needs for a pennant chase. Maybe you could swing something for a 3 month rental of AZ's Suarez. Again, is the cost worth it? Doubtful. 

My (and others') instinct to stand pat partially owes to assuming the pitching will be solid and competitive again next year. And that's the sticking point. Maybe it won't be. Maybe the phenomenal pitching they are getting this year should be taken advantage of by taking some bigger risk, and adding some serious firepower to the offense. 

Posted

As an addendum... my instincts owe to old time sentiment that values developing and retaining rosters. I have wondered if the Brewers won the WS, if fans 20-30+ years from now would remember the players as fondly as us older guys revere the '82 team. Today's rosters change so much. (Yes, the 80's Brewers brought in a couple of hired guns too I realize.) 

Posted

I'm not a fan of making moves just to make moves although I understand from a GM/Owner standpoint you generally sell more tickets by placating to the casual fans when all else is equal. Not doing something says "we don't care and aren't trying" to many.

Suarez seems great but the cost to acquire the guy who is #4 in the league in HR's is probably really steep. I'm definitely calling to inquire about him but I'm not desperate. Durbin has been a good player.

My overall take on this year's deadline is two things: upgrade Mona if the cost is light. Whoever this year's Jerry Hairston equivalent is that can cover the infield for us and provide a deep fly ball with a guy on 3rd when needed.

Secondly, barring injury in the short term to someone - trade one of Quintana/Cortes for some minor league pieces. Woodruff staying healthy is the key here.. assuming no contending team will want to trade from their big league roster to acquire pitching help - we are digging for prospects. I mentioned this in another thread but we have arms pushing up from AA and they need to progress too. Having 10 major league ready arms in AAA/MLB is an amazing 'problem' .. but two of them are expiring contracts and if we can help keep the entire organization healthy top to bottom ... then let's get it done.

 

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Posted

Pick up Suarez, move Durbin to 2nd and Brice to SS. Ortiz is the obvious candidate to bench especially since the manager is not happy with him

  • Disagree 1
Posted

I’m actually stunned that we are 4th in the NL in runs scored. We still don’t have a single player north of a .800 OPS. Half the lineup seems replaceable. It doesn’t seem to add up. Yet, there we are, 4th in the NL in runs scored and 9th in baseball. 

  • Like 1
Posted
3 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I’m actually stunned that we are 4th in the NL in runs scored. We still don’t have a single player north of a .800 OPS. Half the lineup seems replaceable. It doesn’t seem to add up. Yet, there we are, 4th in the NL in runs scored and 9th in baseball. 

almost as if it's a team sport with 3 phases of the game that all factor in to results

Posted

Trading Quintana and/or Cortes makes sense, regardless of what they do with the rest of the roster. Getting a projectable lotto ticket for Cortes would be nice. Salary relief would probably be beneficial too. Perhaps we could expect a bit more for Quintana. 

There are some other pieces of the roster where we have a light surplus. I could see sending Alfaro or Siegler and Perkins to SD for a minor leaguer or two.  

As far as additions are concerned, this year more than ever, I would rather go big than tinker around the edges with anything else. 

I spent way too much of my morning pouring over players who seem like they would be big-time difference makers. The two that jump off the page are Jose Ramierez and CJ Abrams. 

Something involving Pratt, Tobias, Wichrowski, + is what I'd hope to see, but both CLE and WAS would be asking for Made or Pena.  

Posted
6 minutes ago, da swedish german said:

almost as if it's a team sport with 3 phases of the game that all factor in to results

The other two parts of the team sport don’t have anything to do with run production, which is what the post mentioned.

  • Like 3
Posted
5 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I’m actually stunned that we are 4th in the NL in runs scored. We still don’t have a single player north of a .800 OPS. Half the lineup seems replaceable. It doesn’t seem to add up. Yet, there we are, 4th in the NL in runs scored and 9th in baseball. 

The Brewers regular lineup has seven guys who are plus runners. Their +12.8 BsR is tops in MLB, 4.4 runs over second place. Having that much speed allows them to outproduce what would be expected looking at just the raw OPS numbers.

Brewers have also performed well with RISP again coming in at 919 PA (7th in MLB) of 108 wRC+ (9th) resulting in 305 RBI (7th) so far this year. 

Going back to Arnold's first year in 2023 their overall 99 wRC+ ranks 18th, but throw in +38.6 BsR (1st) plus 4,195 PAs with RISP (5th) hitting for a 116 wRC+ (2nd) resulting in 1,399 RBI (4th) and that has allowed them to score 1,934 runs (10th in MLB)...far above what would be expected from a boring 99 wRC+.

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Posted
14 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I’m actually stunned that we are 4th in the NL in runs scored. We still don’t have a single player north of a .800 OPS. Half the lineup seems replaceable. It doesn’t seem to add up. Yet, there we are, 4th in the NL in runs scored and 9th in baseball. 

The Brewers do 1 thing great offensively as a team - They get on base.  

The league average OBP is something like .316 and everyone of our regulars minus Jackson Chourio and Joey Ortiz are well above that mark.  

 

  • Like 1
Posted
19 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

The other two parts of the team sport don’t have anything to do with run production, which is what the post mentioned.

sorry. hit "post" mid post as my wife got home with the dog. i meant to allude to offensive production being more than the typical stats we see posted and that big market fans focus on

shohei has 30 home runs and 55 rbis. that's shocking as well and could be an indictment on big market team construction. course none of that matters if you're the dodgers and just buy whoever you want

Posted

Re: the Brewers getting on base but not having substantial OPS numbers ... I would love to see team numbers league wide for infield hits. I'd be far more shocked if we aren't leading the league than if we are. Every time I turn the tv on Durbin is beating out a swinging bunt to 3rd. Everyone except 1b and C (and Ortiz I guess but that's another issue) seems to be reaching base on a < 70mph EV swing daily...

Posted

i'm pretty sure we lead the league in infield hits

hell of a lot funner to watch than some of our offenses the last 8 years

I'd guess we lead the majors in balls in play that put pressure on the pitcher to make a play. so many big innings with plays like that

  • Like 1
Posted
3 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

Re: the Brewers getting on base but not having substantial OPS numbers ... I would love to see team numbers league wide for infield hits. I'd be far more shocked if we aren't leading the league than if we are. Every time I turn the tv on Durbin is beating out a swinging bunt to 3rd. Everyone except 1b and C (and Ortiz I guess but that's another issue) seems to be reaching base on a < 70mph EV swing daily...

The Brewers lead MLB in infield hits with 94 and are tied for first in MLB in bunt hits with 15

Posted
7 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

That's mostly on LAD stupidity of batting Shohei leadoff.  MLB network nerds went off on it about a month ago.

is Philly stupid for leading schwarber off for the last 3 years? my gut is yes, but I don't have the time or care to research 

Posted
54 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I’m actually stunned that we are 4th in the NL in runs scored. We still don’t have a single player north of a .800 OPS. Half the lineup seems replaceable. It doesn’t seem to add up. Yet, there we are, 4th in the NL in runs scored and 9th in baseball. 

Since that last home shutout against the Twins (45 G), the Brewers are 3rd in baseball in runs scored and 5th in wRC+. It really is a tale of two seasons. The offense was really bad over the first 45 games, but they had a few high scoring games to cancel out the barrage of shutouts and put up an okay run total in aggregate 

Posted
17 minutes ago, da swedish german said:

is Philly stupid for leading schwarber off for the last 3 years? my gut is yes, but I don't have the time or care to research 

Probably but I haven't seen.    The MLB thing had the data on ABs with runners on at leadoff vs 2/3 in the lineup and its very drastic (like 30% vs 50) with leadoff of course being the lowest. The balance is 15ish extra PAs per year per spot moved down in the lineup.   I think they also had some kind of computer simulation on the optimal lineup that would maximize total runs scored and it had him as either 2nd or 3rd.   

The main argument against is the extra PAs and keeping it LRL with him, Betts then Freeman.  If I recall the simulation was to put Smith leadoff then move everyone else down one spot to keep the lefties alternated.  But could simply have Betts leadoff, the put smith or Teoscar 3 Freddy 4. 

  • Like 1
Posted

Yeah i don't think we need to do much of anything. Some of the best trades we've had in the past 20+ years were Yelich, Contreras, Adames and those trades, at the time, either we didn't really need that position, or the guy wasn't thought to be on the trading block. So I am hoping for a trade like that but I know the odds are very low. 

I tried to log in on my iPad. Turns out it was an etch-a-sketch and I don't own an iPad. Also, I'm out of vodka.
Posted

I would let the market come to us. We need to thin the herd a bit at the higher levels organizationally, but I'm not that impressed with the match of likely available players with our needs.

I wouldn't hesitate to make available prospects like Black, Boeve, or Carlos Rodriguez who don't really fit our needs but could some other team.

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