Collins, Mears to KC for Angel Zerpa

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

or Why can’t people just say whatever they want to say….

If you struggle to see the logic of the trade, you’re fine to express that. I personally like this trade because we took two guys who really struggled at the end of the season and are likely to have significant regression into a controllable elite stuff pitcher who is likely to experience some degree of positive regression

I mean if you believe that you’re fine to express that, too. 

I trust our front office. I don’t have a problem trading Collins. I thought he had more value than this.

All of those things are just my opinion.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

3 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I mean if you believe that you’re fine to express that, too. 

I trust our front office. I don’t have a problem trading Collins. I thought he had more value than this.

All of those things are just my opinion.

I think your points are valid, but I don't think Collins was very valuable. He was like a worse Jesus Aguilar, a guy that everyone knew wasn't going to sustain the level he was playing at. He already had started dipping badly once his name got out there a bit. 

[liveforoctober]

2 hours ago, adambr2 said:

“Open to looking at Angel Zerpa as starter” seems like a little bit of a leap from “cheap controlled rotation piece.”

We don’t know if he will be in the rotation let alone if he will succeed there.

I thought it was dripping enough to not need a blue font but my apologies for not altering the text color.

[liveforoctober]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

DH and 1B. Both are part time OF not guys who would start consistently in the OF if there were injuries.

Oh I didn't know what positions they played.

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

I mean if you believe that you’re fine to express that, too. 

I trust our front office. I don’t have a problem trading Collins. I thought he had more value than this.

All of those things are just my opinion.

This whole narrative about Collins being bad at the end of the year. C;'mon! Talk about small sample sizes.

"I trust our front office." 

Me too. And that's what I'll lean on. But just looking at this trade, I believe the arguments for it would be cheering for it if it were the exact opposite.

"We got 5 years of team control over a guy who finished 4th in ROY voting AND the reliever who had the better year last year? Arnold does it again!"

 

I love this board and there's a lot of people who know the game REALLY well, they know the prospects... but the opinion is really 'well, if the Brewers did it, it's a good move!' 

 

I half wanna see the Brewers trade Made for... Trevor Story and see how popular that is.

'Prospects are no guarantee and Story is a big upgrade over Ortiz!'

 

I trust the FO... I really do. We got a nice Ground Ball pitcher who... throws in the mid 90s. Hopefully we can get better, but this doesn't seem like a great value. I hope the Brewers are right though. 

[TURBO]

5 hours ago, liveforoctober said:

I'm not doubting you, but can you link to where you got that information? Yelich was 12th in MVP voting this past season and he played roughly 10-12% of his games out in LF. Unless it was acknowledged elsewhere that he is hitting only - I would think we want to just copy/paste that plan (sans playoffs).

Nope, I said "I do not believe" which to me means "in my opinion"

I truly believe, in my opinion, Yelich will not be playing 10% of the games in the field this year, barring injury, or emergency.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I'm just really not a big fan of either Collins or Mears, TBH. Sounds like a lot of MLB people think the same. 

Remember that Akil Baddoo was sort of Isaac Collins before Isaac Collins. That career trajectory is a very, very plausible outcome for half of this trade. The other half is a 30-year-old reliever with a 97 ERA+.

Zerpa has more upside than both those guys, and we have A LOT of OF depth.

Does this return seem a little light? Maybe? But were Collins and Mears really going to return better upside? Like, this roster seems pretty clearer better today than two days ago. A lot better? No. But better, and marginal improvements have always been the Crew's MO. I don't believe Isaac Collins is much more than a replacement level player over the long-term. That being a wildly incorrect guess seems to be the only real way this trade goes bad.

It feels like we got younger, higher upside Nick Mears for Nick Mears and organizational depth. The Royals get a solid relief option and a guy they hope is three-quarters of the player he was for a couple of months in the summer. 

Seems like a deal both sides should feel comfortable with, but, given where we are and where we've been, I prefer taking the gamble on a potential leverage lefty.

EDIT: to add that I like Lockridge more than Collins, for his defense and for his ability to see pitches. That's a more valuable skill than people think in today's game. That's a big part of my sense that Collins isn't worth that much FOR US, even IF he's better than I think he is longer term. 

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, TURBO said:

I do not believe that Yelich is in any plans for LF, even sparingly.  To be honest, I hope that is the case.  Let him hit, keep him healthy, and hope for the best.

Adam is correct, had the trade been reversed, this board would have loved it.  Having been here for a while, I also know that any trade we make, the board goes out of it's way to justify it, which is what we are seeing now.

I'm not saying that''s a bad thing, but Adam has a point, even though there will be a lot of people refusing to admit it...

Yeah, I agree. LOL... I mean, c'mon, this is a "safe place!" It's like Twitter where everyone's just pissing and moaning no matter what. They're upset because we haven't signed a big name free agent and have irrational expectations. We're all homers here(I mean, most of the board). 

Also, the whole narrative about how bad Collins was at the end of the year is getting tiresome.

He played sporadically but he finished the year 2 for 29 with 6 walks and 6 strikeouts in his last 29 ABs of Sept. In the 29 ABs in the FIRST half of Sept, he put up a  .280/.379/.480  .859 OPS... in Sept. 

 

So everyone saying "He finished the year poorly," it was EIGHT GAMES. 8 games in which he STILL had a .300 OBP. 

I think every Brewers had a stretch like that...

 

[trwi7]

6 hours ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Zerpa has more upside than both those guys, and we have A LOT of OF depth.

I've seen this a lot and don't understand it at all.  Do we have good depth?  I would argue we have a lot of guys but they're pretty terrible.  Frelick and Chourio have spots but after that we have Yelich who is our full time DH and you probably don't want him in the outfield more than like 25 games a year, Mitchell who has cracked 300 plate appearances once in four seasons and has a huge strikeout rate,, the same problem that Hiura had.  Then we have Perkins, Lockridge and Baddoo, none of whom can hit and then Bauers, who can kind of hit but you don't really want him full time in the outfield either.

Where is this outfield depth that we should be giddy about?  I see three terrible hitters, two injury risks and in the spirit of the season, a partridge in a pear tree.

[gregmag]

6 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

This whole narrative about Collins being bad at the end of the year. C;'mon! Talk about small sample sizes.

"I trust our front office." 

Me too. And that's what I'll lean on. But just looking at this trade, I believe the arguments for it would be cheering for it if it were the exact opposite.

"We got 5 years of team control over a guy who finished 4th in ROY voting AND the reliever who had the better year last year? Arnold does it again!"

 

I love this board and there's a lot of people who know the game REALLY well, they know the prospects... but the opinion is really 'well, if the Brewers did it, it's a good move!' 

 

I half wanna see the Brewers trade Made for... Trevor Story and see how popular that is.

'Prospects are no guarantee and Story is a big upgrade over Ortiz!'

 

I trust the FO... I really do. We got a nice Ground Ball pitcher who... throws in the mid 90s. Hopefully we can get better, but this doesn't seem like a great value. I hope the Brewers are right though. 

This is very reasonable and well stated. Here’s the counterpoint: We know the FO aren’t idiots. If they aren’t idiots, then we should fairly presume that they have some reason for any given move beyond what an idiot might do. So if someone’s reason for criticizing a move depends on things like surface stats that any idiot could cite, I think it’s fair to ask what else the critic has to say. To put the point another way, I think when you criticize a move, it’s always worth thinking seriously about what the *best* reason is that the team might have made the move. I find that technique, when I remember to do it, ups my critical game.  (I think some people in this thread have done that.)

[BrewCrew8675309]

10 hours ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

...and we have A LOT of OF depth.

 

Do we? 

We do have a full major league roster but the two Cali boys can't make it a full year. We have Luis Lara and the Indiana infielder that moved to the outfield during the Arizona fall league... but I'm not as optimistic on the rest of those guys in the minors as you must be. Oh I'm sorry...I completely forgot about Tyler Black and whatever he may be moving forward.

[tmwiese55]

I get the logic and all that and who can't think Collins would come back to earth a bit.  Still, he's a guy I'd have preferred to keep for depth since he's controlled for 4-5 more years for nothing, plus has at least some IF capabilities in a pinch.   I like everything I see about Zerpa, fairly confident he's going to be a great contributor.  But also surprised they had to give up Collins to do it. 

And for OF going forward, I'd say they are fine with "Depth". But, they are still missing a starter.  For your 4-6th OFers Mitchell/Badoo/Perkins are perfectly good guys to have since we all know injuries will happen. They are cheap, play great D so they won't kill you. And while not good enough hitters to be a starter, for 2-3 weeks they're not godawful enough to kill you either.   Hoping there is something coming for an actual starter and they're not once again hoping Mitchell can stay healthy. 

[owbc]

Collins feels like a Brady Clark type, who also debuted at 27. I think Clark's 4.7 career bWAR is a number that Collins could probably hit, but it's hard to see his ceiling going much above that. 

The market for decent relief pitching is insane this winter. The Mariners had to pay a top-50 prospect to get Ferrer from the Nationals, and Ferrer's numbers are in the same ballpark as Zerpa (+1 extra year of control for Ferrer). 

Just watching how the postseason unfolded this year, an Isaac Collins-type is not going to be a difference maker while reliable bullpen arms were worth their weight in gold. The Brewers absolutely think they can find replacements for Collins and Baddoo is surely one of several options that they will evaluate to fill in the outfield. 

If we think our FO is smart than we should be transacting heavily and trying to get little advantages wherever we can. 

[Frisbee Slider]

Keith Law doesn’t like the trade.

Therefore, Brewers win the trade? 🙂🤷‍♂️

In seriousness, we shouldn’t judge the trade based on 2025 baseball card stats, though.
 

 

[TURBO]

22 hours ago, trwi7 said:

I've seen this a lot and don't understand it at all.  Do we have good depth?  I would argue we have a lot of guys but they're pretty terrible.  Frelick and Chourio have spots but after that we have Yelich who is our full time DH and you probably don't want him in the outfield more than like 25 games a year, Mitchell who has cracked 300 plate appearances once in four seasons and has a huge strikeout rate,, the same problem that Hiura had.  Then we have Perkins, Lockridge and Baddoo, none of whom can hit and then Bauers, who can kind of hit but you don't really want him full time in the outfield either.

Where is this outfield depth that we should be giddy about?  I see three terrible hitters, two injury risks and in the spirit of the season, a partridge in a pear tree.

I truly believe that people just don't realize that the days when we had a full system of OFers has passed us by.  I remember when we had Frelick, Wiemer, Mitchell, and Chourio in the pipeline, and everyone thought we were set for a decade!  So far, only Chourio and Frelick have panned out.  So I think the old notion of having a stacked OF position at the minor league level comes from that...

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

17 hours ago, BrewCrew8675309 said:

Do we? 

We do have a full major league roster but the two Cali boys can't make it a full year. We have Luis Lara and the Indiana infielder that moved to the outfield during the Arizona fall league... but I'm not as optimistic on the rest of those guys in the minors as you must be. Oh I'm sorry...I completely forgot about Tyler Black and whatever he may be moving forward.

I genuinely think I just like Perkins, Baddoo, Chourio, Frelick, and Lockridge (plus whatever you get from Yelich) as much as I like Perkins, Collins, Chuorio, Frelick, and Lockridge (plus whatever you get from Yelich). We've got 6 guys and Bauers who can play outfield fine. I'd like BETTER players, but losing Collins doesn't make the position any weaker IMO.

There are legit arguments that we're not THAT deep at OF, but I think you have to say that Collins is a lot better than Lockridge/Baddoo to make the case that this trade hurts. Call me a sucker for buying more into Baddoo's pedigree more than Collins' 2025, I suppose. It's a fair point, and we'll see how it plays out.

Like I said, Brewers taking on risk here. But that's a good thing. We're all probably willing to sacrifice some regular season magic for playoff upside at this point. This move screams that to me. Give me the team-cobtrolled lefty with high-end BP potential over the ROY outfielder regression candidate, even though he might not regress.

EDIT: Mitchell is the best OF of all these guys, but obviously he has to show he can get 400 ABs.

[trwi7]

6 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Call me a sucker for buying more into Baddoo's pedigree more than Collins' 2025, I suppose. It's a fair point, and we'll see how it plays out.

Baddoo's pedigree is literally having a rookie year where he hit about as well as Collins and has hit like 2025 Joey Ortiz since.  That's not a pedigree I want anywhere near starting for my favorite major league team.  It's bad enough we have one Joey Ortiz, we certainly don't need another in a corner outfield spot.

[markedman5]

36 minutes ago, trwi7 said:

Baddoo's pedigree is literally having a rookie year where he hit about as well as Collins and has hit like 2025 Joey Ortiz since.  That's not a pedigree I want anywhere near starting for my favorite major league team.  It's bad enough we have one Joey Ortiz, we certainly don't need another in a corner outfield spot.

My guess is the Brewers evaluators liked what he did last season in AAA. Maybe he made some changes……I don’t know. ……But clearly if they thought he was going to be another Joey Ortiz with the bat they wouldn’t have signed him.

Obviously doesn’t mean they will be right but let’s give them at least the slightest benefit of the doubt on a very low risk signing.

It’s been reported that it’s a split contract…….if it works people will be happy if it doesn’t he will be organizational depth…….no need to over think this.

Collins was a nobody when they rescued him from the Rockies……no pedigree…….we will see how he does with the Royals…….

 

[liveforoctober]

2 hours ago, trwi7 said:

Baddoo's pedigree is literally having a rookie year where he hit about as well as Collins and has hit like 2025 Joey Ortiz since.  That's not a pedigree I want anywhere near starting for my favorite major league team.  It's bad enough we have one Joey Ortiz, we certainly don't need another in a corner outfield spot.

If you had to guess right now how many at bats Baddoo is going to get for the Brewers in 2026 - what would your guess be?

[trwi7]

38 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

If you had to guess right now how many at bats Baddoo is going to get for the Brewers in 2026 - what would your guess be?

Probably 200-250ish.

[homer]

I agree that OF depth is a concern particularly if you are banking on Mitchell to play 100+ games but Collins xSLG was .349 and xBA was .247 and he'll be 29 at midseason. I hope they make another deal but I am not too sad they traded Collins.

[CheezWizHed]

I was just comparing Baddoo to Collins and there are a lot of similarities.  I don't think it is much of a stretch to say swapping the two is a wash. 

• Baddoo is a year younger and can play CF (30% of his MLB innings came there).
• Minor league numbers:
  • Baddoo: 256/363/436/799
  • Collins: 266/380/422/803
• Rookie MLB season:
  • Baddoo (22yo): 259/330/436/766
  • Collins (27yo): 263/368/411/779

We can't ignore the poor years that Baddoo had with Detroit after his rookie year, but even when he wasn't hitting well, he put up positive bWAR in all but one season (2.1, 0.2, 0.7, -0.5, 0.2), so defense can't be too bad. 

Likewise, I wouldn't be surprised by some regression on Collins side also. 

I wouldn't say that I'm jumping up and down over this trade as I was a Collins fan.  But it isn't like he was a future star for the team either.  

Past performance wise, swapping Collins for Baddoo and Mears for Zerpa ends up a pretty neutral swap.  But looking forward, I'd say that we gained some upside in Zerpa or at least flexibility.

[sveumrules]

In 2025 Brewers OF were 5th in MLB with 10.4 WAR, in 2024 they were 4th in MLB with 10.8 WAR, that combined 21.2 WAR is 5th in MLB over those two years with a three win drop off down to ARI in 6th at 18.2 WAR.

It hasn't really been a star studded affair.

Their best OF over those two seasons unsurprisingly have been Jackson Chourio with 6.8 WAR (13th), followed by Sal Frelick (5.1 WAR | 23rd). Really good, some might even say great (especially considering Chourio's age and doubts about Sal having enough bat for a corner), but not really Stars.

Their third best OF the last two years? Christian Yelich. His 280 PA on the grass is only 5th on the team, but he has hit for a 156 wRC+ when playing OF good for 2.7 WAR (53rd on that above linked leaderboard).

After that it's Collins (2.4 WAR | 60th), Perkins (2.0 WAR | 71st), and Mitchell (1.8 WAR | 77th). Bauers has also raked to the tune of a 144 wRC+ over his 114 PA as an OF these last two years good for 0.9 WAR (107th).

Baddoo, Brandon, Berroa? They are all fine 5th/6th OF that fit the Brewers run prevention scheme. Akil might even have an outside shot of pulling off his own out of nowhere two win season.

It's the fourth B though that might have the best chance of pulling his own Collins this year. Let's see, Isaac was a LF only guy, who doesn't have the best wheels but managed to be a positive base runner anyway, and built his offensive game mostly around being overly passive in the box...sounds kind of like Tyler Black? Who's still only 25, two years younger than Collins was last year.

And then there's the guy who probably has the best chance of being a long term piece with the club over the next half decade plus just waiting in AAA. That one who somewhat quietly went for 257/369/343 (116 wRC+) with a 14.1 BB% | 16.2 K% as a 20 year old in the Southern League with plus CF defense.

If Cooper Pratt is a Top 100 guy hitting for 238/343/348 (107 wRC+) with a 12.7 BB% | 15.2 K% on the same team at the same age, it seems to me that Luis Lara is maybe flying under the radar a little bit. Can't be too many teams that will have an OF of that calibre waiting in AAA that isn't even on the 40 Man yet.

The Brewers depth is just fine. What they are lacking is a True Star (maybe third time's the charm for Chourio this year) or just one more dependable starter ala Sal. Still plenty of offseason (and ammunition to get a deal done) if the right opportunity is out there.

[patrickgpe]

Skimming through posts, it seems pretty mixed. I have no strong opinion, but at this point if Matt Arnold says he liked a pitcher for sometime and did what he had to to get him, doesn't he get the benefit of the doubt? Mears / Collins were good at times last year. Mears was overworked and struggled down the stretch, and Collins never got back on track after his paternity leave. Its entirely possible that Collins goes back to a serviceable player but he doesn't have this high ceiling where the brewers are going to get burnt anyway. 

[trwi7]

2 hours ago, homer said:

I agree that OF depth is a concern particularly if you are banking on Mitchell to play 100+ games but Collins xSLG was .349 and xBA was .247 

If we're going this route, we should probably replace Frelick who had an xBA of .256 and xSLG of .337

 

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

but even when he wasn't hitting well, he put up positive bWAR in all but one season (2.1, 0.2, 0.7, -0.5, 0.2), so defense can't be too bad. 

And fangraphs has him at 0.1WAR in that same span.   On top of this, shouldn't we try to be, I don't know, improving?  Collins may very well turn back into a nobody but his actual contribution did happen last season.  That should be our baseline, trying to improve on what every player provided last year.  We have now removed one of our most productive hitters from a lineup that needs more productive hitters and currently our replacements are a guy who can't stay on the field, a guy who has 0.1 WAR since he's decent rookie season four years ago and a couple other guys who can't hit.  This is on top of the 3 starters we already have who were in the 8th percentile or worse of xwOBA on contact last year.