Brewers (Drohan) vs Reds (Lowder): 6/24/26, 6:10pm

[Brian]

7 hours ago, dlk9s said:

I am entertained watching Kuhnel because he never looks like he wants to be out there.

I agree, hope Kuhnel does well, his expression pitching on the mound.

from this  to that.  

 

[willie key]

I know one thing.    You can’t have Vaughn hitting with the bases loaded.   You got to get frelick up in that spot.  

[owbc]

I don't know what we did to please the baseball gods but I hope we keep doing it. 

Kuhnel is out there sweating bullets and Murphy has already decided that he'd rather lose the game than burn another arm or go to extras. 

Reds fans must hate us. We are the new Cardinals except without the self righteousness. 

[Opening Day]

10 minutes ago, owbc said:

I don't know what we did to please the baseball gods but I hope we keep doing it. 

Kuhnel is out there sweating bullets and Murphy has already decided that he'd rather lose the game than burn another arm or go to extras. 

Reds fans must hate us. We are the new Cardinals except without the self righteousness. 

Im ready to win a World Series and be the self-righteous ones.  F' it.  We can explain the Cardinals and their fans the unwritten rules of baseball.

[Brian]

14 minutes ago, owbc said:

I don't know what we did to please the baseball gods but I hope we keep doing it. 

Kuhnel is out there sweating bullets and Murphy has already decided that he'd rather lose the game than burn another arm or go to extras. 

Reds fans must hate us. We are the new Cardinals except without the self righteousness. 

I enjoyed that win tonight. 

[AKCheesehead]

I’ll be watching this one in the morning. From the IGT it looks like I’m in for a treat

[Team Canada]

Brewers starters did not allow a run in this series. Miz and Harrison did not pitch.

[owbc]

1 hour ago, Brian said:

I enjoyed that win tonight. 

Me too. I don’t get the October comparisons. You don’t need your #7 starter and a bunch of low leverage relievers in October. This was a throwaway game that they won anyway and in hilarious fashion. 

[liveforoctober]

8 minutes ago, owbc said:

Me too. I don’t get the October comparisons. You don’t need your #7 starter and a bunch of low leverage relievers in October. This was a throwaway game that they won anyway and in hilarious fashion. 

No way brother. Our 11th best reliever isn't Trevor Hoffman and our backup catcher isn't Pudge Rodriguez and that is just poor management on our part and don't you dare try to question my rage over it!

[Outlander]

Really miss DL Hall, at least he could pitch the final three innings when leading by a few runs. The Brewers must really dislike what they have seen of Koenig with the filler relief pitchers the Brewers have had lately, now they have to call him up against the Cubs. Back to Nashville for Yoho 

[Brian]

2 hours ago, Outlander said:

Really miss DL Hall, at least he could pitch the final three innings when leading by a few runs. The Brewers must really dislike what they have seen of Koenig with the filler relief pitchers the Brewers have had lately, now they have to call him up against the Cubs. Back to Nashville for Yoho 

And Koenig has only pitched 2 innings this year in Nashville, I have know idea why besides maybe arm related issues?

[adambr2]

The Yoho stuff is frustrating because he’s been basically unhittable in the minors and they really, really need a dude in the pen. 

They have a bunch of serviceable relievers that are nice to have but they don’t have a true stopper right now like they had with Hader and Devin. Not sure what the price will be on Chapman but it will be interesting to see if they get involved.

[Brian]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

The Yoho stuff is frustrating because he’s been basically unhittable in the minors and they really, really need a dude in the pen. 

They have a bunch of serviceable relievers that are nice to have but they don’t have a true stopper right now like they had with Hader and Devin. Not sure what the price will be on Chapman but it will be interesting to see if they get involved.

I agree, Yoho went from unhittable in Nashville to giving up 4 runs and 3 walks in six innings pitched in Milwaukee. 

Not even close to being acceptable, he is already 26 so his Yo Yo pitch and command is not translating to the MLB unless he has that nervous anxiety like Chad Patrick has. 

[sveumrules]

7 hours ago, Team Canada said:

Brewers starters did not allow a run in this series. Miz and Harrison did not pitch.

Brewers are 20 W - 9 L when Misio or Harrison pitch, which leaves a 29 W - 20 L record (.592 W%) when our three through nine starters & two openers have started games.

The Rays are currently fifth in MLB with a .571 W%.

[sveumrules]

10 hours ago, jason21nl said:

There’s so many holes on this team.  Unreal how they continue to win 

For all their holes they are tied with the Dodgers for second at 5.22 R/G, their 3.64 RA/G is third just fractions behind the Yankees (3.63 RA/G), and their +123 run differential is second in all of MLB.

Even stripping out sequencing (which is probably a bad idea since the Brewers have the best pitching and hitting with RISP in MLB going back to 2023) and their +96 BaseRuns differential is third in MLB.

The Dodgers undoubtedly have the fewest holes, then its the Brewers, Yankees, and Braves in some order, then it's the other 26 teams. Fifth best run differential in MLB is currently the Cubs at +36 missing an entire rotation, fifth best BaseRuns differential is the Braves at +59.

BaseRuns actually likes the Pirates (+61) slightly more than the Braves so far this year, but their sequencing neutral model is definitely overselling a PIT team that has a 3.87 FIP (6th) but a 4.12 ERA (14th) and 4.76 RA/G (21st) largely on account of a defense (-15 FRV | 26th) that limits their ability to strand runners (68.6 LOB% | 28th). 

[wallus]

6 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

For all their holes they are tied with the Dodgers for second at 5.22 R/G, their 3.64 RA/G is third just fractions behind the Yankees (3.63 RA/G), and their +123 run differential is second in all of MLB.

Even stripping out sequencing (which is probably a bad idea since the Brewers have the best pitching and hitting with RISP in MLB going back to 2023) and their +96 BaseRuns differential is third in MLB.

The Dodgers undoubtedly have the fewest holes, then its the Brewers, Yankees, and Braves in some order, then it's the other 26 teams. Fifth best run differential in MLB is currently the Cubs at +36 missing an entire rotation, fifth best BaseRuns differential is the Braves at +59.

BaseRuns actually likes the Pirates (+61) slightly more than the Braves so far this year, but their sequencing neutral model is definitely overselling a PIT team that has a 3.87 FIP (6th) but a 4.12 ERA (14th) and 4.76 RA/G (21st) largely on account of a defense (-15 FRV | 26th) that limits their ability to strand runners (68.6 LOB% | 28th). 

It's like people don't realize that other teams have mediocre players too

[Jimbo]

Man of the Match: Joel Kuhnel (WPA = +0.25).

 

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

The Yoho stuff is frustrating because he’s been basically unhittable in the minors and they really, really need a dude in the pen. 

They have a bunch of serviceable relievers that are nice to have but they don’t have a true stopper right now like they had with Hader and Devin. Not sure what the price will be on Chapman but it will be interesting to see if they get involved.

There was just a lengthy article about Yoho in the JS a week or two ago. In essence Yoho tries to paint the corners and get batters to chase stuff that’s not in the zone. He can get AAA batters to chase his fastball but major league hitters are able to see it as a ball and don’t swing. 
 

 

 

[MoreTrife]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

For all their holes they are tied with the Dodgers for second at 5.22 R/G, their 3.64 RA/G is third just fractions behind the Yankees (3.63 RA/G), and their +123 run differential is second in all of MLB.

Even stripping out sequencing (which is probably a bad idea since the Brewers have the best pitching and hitting with RISP in MLB going back to 2023) and their +96 BaseRuns differential is third in MLB.

The Dodgers undoubtedly have the fewest holes, then its the Brewers, Yankees, and Braves in some order, then it's the other 26 teams. Fifth best run differential in MLB is currently the Cubs at +36 missing an entire rotation, fifth best BaseRuns differential is the Braves at +59.

BaseRuns actually likes the Pirates (+61) slightly more than the Braves so far this year, but their sequencing neutral model is definitely overselling a PIT team that has a 3.87 FIP (6th) but a 4.12 ERA (14th) and 4.76 RA/G (21st) largely on account of a defense (-15 FRV | 26th) that limits their ability to strand runners (68.6 LOB% | 28th). 

Can you explain what Sequencing is please? 

[sveumrules]

Just now, MoreTrife said:

Can you explain what Sequencing is please? 

Yeah, sequencing is just the order that outcomes occur.

For instance, a team has a walk, single, double, and home run in an inning. How many runs did they score? Could be anywhere from one to four depending on the order of those four events.

Runs per game credits you with however many runs you actually scored, easy.

BaseRuns assigns each outcome an average run value based on that season's offensive environment, then uses those values to estimate how many runs a team should have scored (or allowed on the pitching side).

The general idea is that teams exert minimal control over their sequencing, so if a team is scoring above their BaseRuns estimate they are probably due for some regression, whereas if they are below their BaseRuns estimate they could be due for some upcoming positive fortune.

But much like the Brewers have proven they can "create their own luck" on the run prevention side with a 4.02 FIP but a 3.62 ERA since 2023, they are also starting to look like they've maybe figured out how to "create their own luck" on the hitting side too scoring +0.40 R/G over their BaseRuns estimate so far this year, and +0.20 R/G over their BaseRuns estimate for their last 564 games going back to 2023.

[owbc]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Yeah, sequencing is just the order that outcomes occur.

For instance, a team has a walk, single, double, and home run in an inning. How many runs did they score? Could be anywhere from one to four depending on the order of those four events.

Runs per game credits you with however many runs you actually scored, easy.

BaseRuns assigns each outcome an average run value based on that season's offensive environment, then uses those values to estimate how many runs a team should have scored (or allowed on the pitching side).

The general idea is that teams exert minimal control over their sequencing, so if a team is scoring above their BaseRuns estimate they are probably due for some regression, whereas if they are below their BaseRuns estimate they could be due for some upcoming positive fortune.

But much like the Brewers have proven they can "create their own luck" on the run prevention side with a 4.02 FIP but a 3.62 ERA since 2023, they are also starting to look like they've maybe figured out how to "create their own luck" on the hitting side too scoring +0.40 R/G over their BaseRuns estimate so far this year, and +0.20 R/G over their BaseRuns estimate for their last 564 games going back to 2023.

That's really interesting. What's our secret? Baserunning?

[ghostdrew]

5 hours ago, Brian said:

And Koenig has only pitched 2 innings this year in Nashville, I have know idea why besides maybe arm related issues?

9.2 innings in 11 outings 

[Brian]

9 minutes ago, ghostdrew said:

9.2 innings in 11 outings 

Yes you are correct, not sure where I seen the info I first posted. 

https://www.milb.com/player/jared-koenig-657649

 

[sveumrules]

12 minutes ago, owbc said:

That's really interesting. What's our secret? Baserunning?

Base running is definitely a big part of it, the Brewers +43.1 BsR is best in MLB since 2023.

There is the old joke about home runs being rally killers, but I think the Brewers have somewhat taken that to heart and are testing the bounds of the theory somewhat.

Since 2023 their .327 OBP is 2nd in MLB, but their 578 HR and .147 isolated slugging are both 25th. They've scored the 6th most runs in MLB anyway.

High OBP + low Power = 5,874 PA with RISP since 2023 (most in MLB) hitting for a 117 wRC+ with RISP (2nd) ending up with 2,116 runs scored with RISP (1st).

Their overall 44.8 Swing% is also lowest in MLB since 2023.

So in the macro you've got a bunch of good base runners, frequently on base, who rarely swing, but few XBH to move them multiple bases at a time, all combining to put a bunch of pressure on opposing pitching staffs.

They might not crack every time, but with the Brewers posting a 331 W - 233 L record since 2023 (2nd best in MLB) it has worked 58.7% of the time anyway (or an MLB best 60.8% of the time since the start of last year).

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

 5,874 PA with RISP since 2023 (most in MLB) hitting for a 117 wRC+ with RISP (2nd) ending up with 2,116 runs scored with RISP (1st).

 

Up until the last week or so, the RISP numbers have been very good, and I thought that was the lion's share of the story. But as usual you open a lot of eyes on here to stuff that most of us never think of. Many thanks.