Rays throw a curveball

[RobertCrawley]

3 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Martinez pitched into the sixth inning during his last start. Same with Peralta, his previous two starts. Rasmussen has averaged seven innings over his past three starts.

That said, I don’t see a meaningful mismatch between any of the first three pitching matchups beside Milwaukee in game one.
 

Yep. Henderson v Rasmussen should be a good matchup for us.

[BruisedCrew]

3 hours ago, thammondwis said:

The more I think about it, the more it looks like a desperation move for a team that thinks the're outmatched.

I couldn’t disagree more. 

I think they’re just giving their best two starters one more day  of rest.

It’s not like Martinez is a bum, and Misiorowski has not been unbeatable lately. 

[ToolShed55]

We're the best team in baseball. We've beaten multiple Cy Young winners this year. Ras is as good as many of those pitchers, but the Rays NEED him to win his starts. 

They are adjusting to our lineup in the way we used to do to other teams. 

 

We're the daddy, now. Let's go and prove it!

 

23.5 hours to go...

 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I floated the idea of the Brewers doing something like this in the WS open thread. It honestly makes sense to me, and it does put extra pressure on the Brewers. As someone said, you lose Game 1, and now you're looking down the barrel of their two best starters in the next two games.

The good news is, I don't think the G2, G3 matchups are lopsided. Gasser-Peralta is two guys both pitching great. Rasmussen-Henderson is their best vs. our second-best. It also decreases the chances Freddy goes out of the bullpen. 

Honestly, all of these games feel like coin flips to me, maybe the Brewers with small edges, based mostly on the bullpen, adding up to an overall situation in the range of 55-45. 

I don't think this move is going to make or break anything. It's a play buy a day for guys who have worked hard (two days for Freddy) and maybe throw some pressure on us/disrupt the gameplan. I don't think the psychological part will work. 

To the extent that Martinez is less likely to go 6 or 7 complete, it also means Tampa might need more outs from their bullpen in Game 1. That's a big drawback to this one. If Martinez pitches great, but only goes 5, that still might be a net win for us in a 6 or 7 game series. Knock on effects happen when the pen has get stretched out of the gate. 

 

[thammondwis]

2 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

I floated the idea of the Brewers doing something like this in the WS open thread. It honestly makes sense to me, and it does put extra pressure on the Brewers. As someone said, you lose Game 1, and now you're looking down the barrel of their two best starters in the next two games.

The good news is, I don't think the G2, G3 matchups are lopsided. Gasser-Peralta is two guys both pitching great. Rasmussen-Henderson is their best vs. our second-best. It also decreases the chances Freddy goes out of the bullpen. 

Honestly, all of these games feel like coin flips to me, maybe the Brewers with small edges, based mostly on the bullpen, adding up to an overall situation in the range of 55-45. 

I don't think this move is going to make or break anything. It's a play buy a day for guys who have worked hard (two days for Freddy) and maybe throw some pressure on us/disrupt the gameplan. I don't think the psychological part will work.  

 

On the flip side you are essentially conceding 2 games.  Which means you have to win 4 of the remaining 5.  That puts pressure on your team to win GM 2&3. If it ends in 6 Peralta only pitches 1 game.

[owbc]

44 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

I floated the idea of the Brewers doing something like this in the WS open thread. It honestly makes sense to me, and it does put extra pressure on the Brewers. As someone said, you lose Game 1, and now you're looking down the barrel of their two best starters in the next two games.

The good news is, I don't think the G2, G3 matchups are lopsided. Gasser-Peralta is two guys both pitching great. Rasmussen-Henderson is their best vs. our second-best. It also decreases the chances Freddy goes out of the bullpen. 

Honestly, all of these games feel like coin flips to me, maybe the Brewers with small edges, based mostly on the bullpen, adding up to an overall situation in the range of 55-45. 

I don't think this move is going to make or break anything. It's a play buy a day for guys who have worked hard (two days for Freddy) and maybe throw some pressure on us/disrupt the gameplan. I don't think the psychological part will work. 

To the extent that Martinez is less likely to go 6 or 7 complete, it also means Tampa might need more outs from their bullpen in Game 1. That's a big drawback to this one. If Martinez pitches great, but only goes 5, that still might be a net win for us in a 6 or 7 game series. Knock on effects happen when the pen has get stretched out of the gate. 

 

I would also say that how these guys pitched against the short handed Yankees and the bad Guardians offense is not a predictor of how they will do against us. 

[Frisbee Slider]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

It’s not like Martinez is a bum, and Misiorowski has not been unbeatable lately. 

Martinez shut us out over 5 innings back in March before allowing a two-run HR to Contreras in the sixth, back in March.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

4 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Martinez shut us out over 5 innings back in March before allowing a two-run HR to Contreras in the sixth, back in March.

I had forgotten that this is the same Nick Martinez who pitched for the Reds in 24 and 25. We've seen a lot of him. He's had mixed results. Mostly, it's either quality start or complete blowup. Career ERA of 4.4 vs. Milwaukee.

Wild Bill: 5 for 19 with 2 HR

Yeli: 4 for 16 with 1 HR

Turang: 4 for 16 with 1 HR

Mitchell: 4 for 12

Frelick: 4 for 13 with 1 HR

Chourio: 2 for 9 with 1 HR

Vaughn: 1 for 8 with 1 HR

Ortiz: 1 for 9

Sanchez: 3 for 7 with 1 HR

Hamilton: 0 for 3

Bauers: 1 for 5

One thing about the pitchers the Rays will throw at us this series is we'll be familiar with their stuff.

[thammondwis]

29 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Martinez shut us out over 5 innings back in March before allowing a two-run HR to Contreras in the sixth, back in March.

If the 7 games were all Miz vs Martinez which pitcher would you take?

[thammondwis]

2 minutes ago, thammondwis said:

If the 7 games were all Miz vs Martinez which pitcher would you take?

100 out of 100 would take Miz, unless his mom was one of them😂

[Brewers Downunder]

If the Rays win game 1 the decision will be regarded as a masterstroke.

If however the Brewers win game 1........

[Team Canada]

Gasser's last 6 starts:

4.2IP 1ER
5IP 1ER
7IP 0ER
6IP 1ER
4IP 1ER
5IP 0ER

I'm not sure he's the worse pitcher against any Rays pitcher.
They can be cute and play with the pitching matchups, but I don't know that it's going to matter.

[AKCheesehead]

Well whatever they want to do. We’re gonna play our strategies too. Just go beat their asses 4 times. 

[Outlander]

Brewers defintely should not switch around their guys to match up with the Rays. If the Rays want to send out an inferior pitcher in game 1 of the World Series go for it. It certainly puts the Rays at an advantage if they somehow pull it off but the Brewers have seen plenty of Martinez so risky and will repeat itself in game 5.

[Playing Catch]

I always think game 2 is "more important" to win than game 1.

I think they are hoping Martinez to pitch as long as possible in a close game, where the Brewers burn up Miz, and Ashby, Uribe, Megill, and then you flip the pitching advantage in game 2, where if you win, you go back to Tampa feeling pretty dang good about yourself.

[formerlybis]

3 minutes ago, Outlander said:

Brewers defintely should not switch around their guys to match up with the Rays. If the Rays want to send out an inferior pitcher in game 1 of the World Series go for it. It certainly puts the Rays at an advantage if they somehow pull it off but the Brewers have seen plenty of Martinez so risky and will repeat itself in game 5.

Martinez was 15-6 this year - for comparison, Miz was 16-5. I think "inferior", while it's technically accurate compared to Rasmussen and possibly Peralta, gives the impression we're going against a tomato can. We're not.

There is a tendency to focus on the SP matchups, and I'm as guilty as anyone, We should know by now that the bullpen matters as much or more. That really should be a checkmark in the Brewers' favor, but the Rays go about things more like us than the Cubs/Padres/Dodgers offensively, so I am nervous about that, too.

[Thurston Fluff]

I get why Tampa did this but it does make it less likely they'll be available in a game six/seven all hands on deck situation. Or at least not as effective. One reason you pitch your best early is to have them late. 

[MrTPlush]

32 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

I always think game 2 is "more important" to win than game 1.

I think they are hoping Martinez to pitch as long as possible in a close game, where the Brewers burn up Miz, and Ashby, Uribe, Megill, and then you flip the pitching advantage in game 2, where if you win, you go back to Tampa feeling pretty dang good about yourself.

There really isn’t a huge pitching concern Game 2 because there is an off day right after. If we win Game 1 we would once again throw the entire pen at Game 2 if we could win. 

Game 3 is the risky one to really tax your bullpen.

 

[MrTPlush]

3 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I get why Tampa did this but it does make it less likely they'll be available in game six or seven all hands on deck situation. Or at least not as effective. One reason you pitch your best early is to have them late. 

Depends how it shakes out, but would line them up for Game 6 and 7. Not terrible…but now your best pitchers are pitching the games where you have the shortest hook. Not really maximizing their value, potentially.

[Thurston Fluff]

9 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Depends how it shakes out, but would line them up for Game 6 and 7. Not terrible…but now your best pitchers are pitching the games where you have the shortest hook. Not really maximizing their value, potentially.

Rereading it I didn't do a very good job of saying what I meant. Basically they'll be doing what they would in five and six but won't have the option of being additional help in game six and seven. It might only be an inning or two but those are obviously important innings. Few teams have the option of multiple relievers who can routinely shut down a team for multiple innings like the Brewers do. That makes the extra inning or two from their top two starters all the more important.

[jay87shot]

I don't get the Martinez start, we have hit him pretty well in the past with the Reds. He did have a decent start vs. us earlier in the year (6inn 2 runs). However Rasmussen has been so good that moving him to game 2 and likely 6 doesn't make sense if you need him later in game 7. If Misi goes game 1 and 5, I would expect he could/would throw a couple innings Game 7 if needed.

[Frisbee Slider]

If Rays lose game 1, they get the benefit of telling themselves game 2 can be different. 🤷‍♂️

[TURBO]

17 hours ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

You can still lead with Rasmussen and not have Freddy pitch in Milwaukee.

Right, you just go Rasmussen, Martinez, then Freddy game 3 in Tampa.

[SeaBass]

This is going out on a real shaky limb but how about a wild prediction that Martinez goes 2 or 3 innings and the Rays pull a surprise Rasmussen relief appearance and have him piggyback Game 1 if things are going well for them. Heard it here first. 😆

[owbc]

The Rays are smart. This is an Occam's razor situation, they are not going to over manage like the Padres did. They know the numbers on 4 days vs 5 days rest like we do. That's really all there is to it. 

If we drop game 1 there will be a whole media narrative around it but we're only really in trouble if we go down 0-2 and it's hard to see that happening unless a lot goes wrong for us. I expect it will be 1-1 going to Tampa.