2021-10-09 (NLDS Game #2): Braves (Fried) at Brewers (Woodruff) [Brewers lose, 3-0]

[Eye Black]

 

 

Brandon Woodruff: Batter (Braves) vs Pitching Stats

 

Max Fried: Batter (Brewers) vs Pitching Stats

 

 

Statcast Game Preview for Braves-Brewers NLDS Game #2

 

Statcast Game Feed for Braves-Brewers NLDS Game #2

[wibadgers23]

Now would be a good time to have a breakout game against a LH starter. Otherwise, Woodruff will need to be on his game today. Go Crew!

[folly412]

Hope to see Taylor in the lineup. Urias, Taylor, Pineapple to smoke the lefty.

[Outlander]

Does Yelich begin the game on the bench and go with Taylor/Cain/Garcia? Assume it is Urias at 3B and Escobar at 1B even after Rowdy's big game.

[adambr2]

Tyrone Taylor has a 837 OPS against LHP this year. Garcia, 935. Christian Yelich, 611.

 

It's hard to see a logical reason why Yelich shouldn't be riding the pine against lefty starters.

[sveumrules]

Hope to see Taylor in the lineup. Urias, Taylor, Pineapple to smoke the lefty.

 

Lineup should be interesting. Manny over Omar vs LHP has been the way all season, so would expect that to continue.

 

Think Tyrone will be the first PH vs a lefty. Short of injury I'd guess Yelich / Cain / Avisail start every postseason game.

 

Urias would require sitting one of Rowdy or Escobar. Rowdy was the hero yesterday & Escobar has better splits vs LHP. Pretty tough call.

 

Having a DH would make navigating all this at least a little easier. Maybe next year.

[Eye Black]

I agree that Taylor would be a better option than Yelich today, but I’d still be absolutely shocked to see Yelich not in the starting lineup.

 

This is another game where it feels like the Brewers best chance for a big inning is going to come in the 6th inning or later.

[sveumrules]

Tyrone Taylor has a 837 OPS against LHP this year. Garcia, 935. Christian Yelich, 611.

 

It's hard to see a logical reason why Yelich shouldn't be riding the pine against lefty starters.

 

Single season splits vs LHP are automatically a small sample, only 89 PAs for Tyrone this year and 126 PAs for Yelich. A multi season look will generally be a better representation of the ever elusive "true talent level".

 

Problem is Taylor only has 19 PAs vs LHP before this year. He posted a .669 OPS in those PAs bringing his career line to .807 OPS over 108 PAs vs LHP.

 

It's also tricky for Yelich since he's been a different hitter post-2018-19, when he posted .983 OPS | 192 PAs and .936 OPS | 202 PAs vs LHP. But even then, he posted a career best season vs LHP in 2020 with 1.068 OPS | 72 PAs...which almost further reinforces just how fluky single season splits vs LHP can be.

[dlk9s]

Does Yelich begin the game on the bench and go with Taylor/Cain/Garcia? Assume it is Urias at 3B and Escobar at 1B even after Rowdy's big game.

 

As much as we all know he probably should be on the bench, there is no way that Yelich doesn't play every inning of every game in the playoffs barring injury or a blowout. I would be absolutely floored if it happened. And you know what? I would bet that Stearns and Counsell have talked about it. They're not dumb. At the same time, though (and I have a feeling this does go into the decision), benching the MVP from just three years ago and runner-up from two years ago might generate media chatter that the team just doesn't want to deal with right now.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Tyrone Taylor has a 837 OPS against LHP this year. Garcia, 935. Christian Yelich, 611.

 

It's hard to see a logical reason why Yelich shouldn't be riding the pine against lefty starters.

 

Single season splits vs LHP are automatically a small sample, only 89 PAs for Tyrone this year and 126 PAs for Yelich. A multi season look will generally be a better representation of the ever elusive "true talent level".

 

Problem is Taylor only has 19 PAs vs LHP before this year. He posted a .669 OPS in those PAs bringing his career line to .807 OPS over 108 PAs vs LHP.

 

It's also tricky for Yelich since he's been a different hitter post-2018-19, when he posted .983 OPS | 192 PAs and .936 OPS | 202 PAs vs LHP. But even then, he posted a career best season vs LHP in 2020 with 1.068 OPS | 72 PAs...which almost further reinforces just how fluky single season splits vs LHP can be.

 

While agree with the pure statistics of this, the small sample size argument means that we are frequently discounting that players evolve, improve, decline year to year. By the time a player has a large enough sample size of ABs to satisfy statistics, he is rarely the exact same player as he was as he accumulated that data - just as you eluded to with these two players.

 

I don’t think we need a large sample to say current Yelich is not 2019 Yelich. And that current Taylor is not 2020 and earlier Taylor. Sometimes small samples are relevant. How relevant…well if I or anyone had the answer to that, then we could just let a computer manage the team.

[SomewhereInTime]

Lets go Brandon!

[owbc]

Current Yelich isn’t Chris Davis or Bellinger. He would slot as a leadoff hitter on most teams with his elite OBP + speed and base running skill set.

 

Pitchers aren’t actively trying to pitch around him anymore…we need to recognize and appreciate that the new version of Yelich still has excellent plate discipline which is worth something.

[PinaMadness]

Hope to see Taylor in the lineup. Urias, Taylor, Pineapple to smoke the lefty.

The Pineapple smoking the lefty is a given.

[Pugger]

Current Yelich isn’t Chris Davis or Bellinger. He would slot as a leadoff hitter on most teams with his elite OBP + speed and base running skill set.

 

Pitchers aren’t actively trying to pitch around him anymore…we need to recognize and appreciate that the new version of Yelich still has excellent plate discipline which is worth something.

 

His ability to get walks is the only thing I find appealing about his game at the plate right now.

[SRB]

We're getting a Manny Pina HR today. So obvious it's hardly even a prediction.

[gebc1997]

Lets go Brandon!

 

Lets get that chant going nice and loud at the game today. Make sure there’s no mistaking it.

[kalle8]

I do think Yelich has to start, my only complain he's batting third with zero sense for him to be in that spot.

[BruisedCrew]

Today will be my 15th Brewer playoff game, and it just occurred to me that this will be the first time I’ve gone to a Brewers playoff game where they had the lead in the series. The previous 14 games were 5 first games of series, 4 other games where the teams were tied, and 5 where the Brewers were behind in the series.

 

The Brewers are 10-4 in the playoff games I’ve attended. Hopefully that trend will overcome the bad luck we’ve had this season with games from our 10 pack.

[Joseph Zarr]

Will the real Avi Garcia please stand up? I am still waiting for his return to Hot Streak .270’s BA ascension pre-back tightness Avi. Will this be the game I find my faith validated?

[owbc]

Today will be my 15th Brewer playoff game, and it just occurred to me that this will be the first time I’ve gone to a Brewers playoff game where they had the lead in the series. The previous 14 games were 5 first games of series, 4 other games where the teams were tied, and 5 where the Brewers were behind in the series.

 

The Brewers are 10-4 in the playoff games I’ve attended. Hopefully that trend will overcome the bad luck we’ve had this season with games from our 10 pack.

 

The Brewers are undefeated at home in the NLDS, right? And they’ve never lost game 1 of a playoff series in the Miller Park era.

[Eye Black]

 

 

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Replace Yelich with Taylor. Go Brewers!

[Eye Black]

Today is the sort of matchup you hope acquiring Escobar pays off. He has a .537 slugging and .887 OPS against LHP this season (in 159 plate appearances).

[young guns]

Today will be my 15th Brewer playoff game, and it just occurred to me that this will be the first time I’ve gone to a Brewers playoff game where they had the lead in the series. The previous 14 games were 5 first games of series, 4 other games where the teams were tied, and 5 where the Brewers were behind in the series.

 

The Brewers are 10-4 in the playoff games I’ve attended. Hopefully that trend will overcome the bad luck we’ve had this season with games from our 10 pack.

 

The Brewers are undefeated at home in the NLDS, right? And they’ve never lost game 1 of a playoff series in the Miller Park era.

I believe we lost to Philly in game 4 in 2008?

[Opening Day]

Hope to see Taylor in the lineup. Urias, Taylor, Pineapple to smoke the lefty.

 

Lineup should be interesting. Manny over Omar vs LHP has been the way all season, so would expect that to continue.

 

Think Tyrone will be the first PH vs a lefty. Short of injury I'd guess Yelich / Cain / Avisail start every postseason game.

 

Urias would require sitting one of Rowdy or Escobar. Rowdy was the hero yesterday & Escobar has better splits vs LHP. Pretty tough call.

 

Having a DH would make navigating all this at least a little easier. Maybe next year.

Less than 3 weeks away